Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.0#329
Expected Predictive Rating-13.0#345
Pace63.4#305
Improvement-0.2#206

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#323
First Shot-5.4#330
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#182
Layup/Dunks-4.0#329
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#87
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#145
Freethrows-4.0#361
Improvement-0.1#213

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#308
First Shot-4.1#308
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#209
Layups/Dunks-2.4#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#199
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#222
Freethrows-1.1#267
Improvement-0.1#204
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 7.2% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 43.4% 60.8% 27.6%
Conference Champion 1.7% 3.1% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four5.8% 7.2% 4.6%
First Round1.8% 2.1% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis Brooklyn (Away) - 47.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 50 - 7
Quad 410 - 1410 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 143   @ Massachusetts L 67-94 10%     0 - 1 -22.7 -5.8 -15.7
  Nov 13, 2022 133   Quinnipiac L 70-72 20%     0 - 2 -2.9 -3.6 +0.8
  Nov 15, 2022 72   @ St. John's L 74-91 4%     0 - 3 -6.7 +8.0 -15.0
  Nov 19, 2022 261   Lafayette L 50-55 33%     0 - 4 -10.4 -12.8 +1.5
  Nov 20, 2022 217   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 76-78 16%     0 - 5 -1.6 +3.4 -5.1
  Nov 23, 2022 288   Maine L 58-66 48%     0 - 6 -17.5 -16.1 -1.9
  Nov 26, 2022 20   @ Rutgers L 49-83 2%     0 - 7 -17.5 -7.7 -12.2
  Nov 29, 2022 207   Brown L 51-59 30%     0 - 8 -12.5 -14.5 +0.9
  Dec 03, 2022 326   @ Holy Cross L 57-63 37%     0 - 9 -12.6 -15.5 +2.7
  Dec 09, 2022 275   Dartmouth W 59-50 45%     1 - 9 +0.4 -15.3 +15.8
  Dec 11, 2022 132   @ Fordham L 77-90 9%     1 - 10 -8.3 +10.4 -18.9
  Dec 16, 2022 294   @ Manhattan W 78-67 29%     2 - 10 +6.7 +7.8 -0.4
  Dec 20, 2022 237   Army L 55-66 37%     2 - 11 -17.6 -18.1 -0.4
  Dec 22, 2022 162   @ Saint Joseph's L 66-83 12%     2 - 12 -14.0 -1.9 -12.8
  Dec 29, 2022 325   @ St. Francis (PA) L 72-80 37%     2 - 13 0 - 1 -14.5 -8.6 -5.7
  Dec 31, 2022 349   St. Francis Brooklyn W 74-52 69%     3 - 13 1 - 1 +6.9 -5.6 +12.3
  Jan 05, 2023 363   LIU Brooklyn W 78-59 85%     4 - 13 2 - 1 -2.0 +2.5 -3.1
  Jan 07, 2023 340   @ Stonehill L 49-51 44%     4 - 14 2 - 2 -10.3 -16.5 +5.7
  Jan 14, 2023 307   Fairleigh Dickinson L 80-88 53%     4 - 15 2 - 3 -18.7 +3.8 -23.2
  Jan 20, 2023 284   @ Wagner L 50-72 28%     4 - 16 2 - 4 -25.9 -16.0 -12.6
  Jan 22, 2023 363   @ LIU Brooklyn W 58-42 71%     5 - 16 3 - 4 +0.4 -15.8 +17.6
  Jan 26, 2023 337   Merrimack L 61-64 63%     5 - 17 3 - 5 -16.4 -3.8 -13.1
  Jan 28, 2023 325   St. Francis (PA) W 88-74 58%     6 - 17 4 - 5 +2.0 +9.1 -6.9
  Feb 02, 2023 349   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 64-65 48%    
  Feb 04, 2023 323   @ Sacred Heart L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 08, 2023 360   @ Hartford W 67-63 65%    
  Feb 11, 2023 307   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 71-76 32%    
  Feb 16, 2023 284   Wagner L 61-62 49%    
  Feb 18, 2023 340   Stonehill W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 23, 2023 337   @ Merrimack L 58-60 42%    
  Feb 25, 2023 323   Sacred Heart W 71-69 58%    
Projected Record 10 - 21 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 0.5 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.8 2.5 0.2 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.7 6.2 1.1 0.0 8.0 3rd
4th 0.1 5.7 4.8 0.1 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 2.0 11.5 0.8 14.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 11.1 5.9 0.0 17.9 6th
7th 0.8 8.7 12.0 0.5 22.0 7th
8th 1.5 7.3 10.1 2.0 21.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 1.5 8.2 19.6 27.2 24.3 13.8 4.7 0.6 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 74.5% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 23.7% 1.1    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0
9-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.6% 23.6% 23.6% 16.0 0.2 0.5
10-6 4.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.0 0.8 4.0
9-7 13.8% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 1.4 12.3
8-8 24.3% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 1.7 22.6
7-9 27.2% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 1.1 26.1
6-10 19.6% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.5 19.1
5-11 8.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 8.1
4-12 1.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 16.0 5.8 94.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 25.9% 16.0 25.9
Lose Out 0.6% 0.3% 16.0 0.3