Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#242
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#155
Pace64.9#302
Improvement+0.0#187

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#274
First Shot-0.7#190
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#348
Layup/Dunks-2.0#256
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#209
Freethrows-1.0#244
Improvement+2.2#38

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#190
First Shot-3.3#291
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#26
Layups/Dunks-1.9#254
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#93
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#320
Freethrows+1.3#102
Improvement-2.3#324
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.1% 34.1% 27.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 91.0% 94.3% 82.7%
.500 or above in Conference 92.5% 92.9% 91.6%
Conference Champion 50.5% 53.9% 42.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.8%
First Four12.1% 11.2% 14.2%
First Round25.8% 28.3% 19.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 71.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 32 - 32 - 5
Quad 416 - 618 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 169 @Quinnipiac L 49-71 26%     0 - 1 -19.8 -20.4 +0.3
  Tue, Nov 11 148 @Boston College W 60-59 21%     1 - 1 +4.7 -4.0 +8.8
  Sun, Nov 16 152 @Massachusetts L 77-84 22%     1 - 2 -3.5 -0.7 -2.1
  Fri, Nov 21 132 @Rutgers W 67-54 19%     2 - 2 +17.7 +5.5 +13.9
  Mon, Nov 24 257 Sacred Heart W 108-106 OT 64%     3 - 2 -6.3 +14.1 -20.7
  Wed, Dec 3 56 @Seton Hall L 61-77 6%     3 - 3 -3.5 +2.9 -8.0
  Sun, Dec 7 209 @Northeastern L 56-73 33%     3 - 4 -17.2 -13.4 -4.2
  Sat, Dec 13 356 @Binghamton W 84-67 74%     4 - 4 +5.8 +11.4 -4.3
  Thu, Dec 18 294 Fairfield W 72-66 71%    
  Fri, Jan 2 211 @LIU Brooklyn L 69-73 34%    
  Sun, Jan 4 337 New Haven W 69-60 81%    
  Thu, Jan 8 341 Stonehill W 71-61 82%    
  Sat, Jan 10 307 @Le Moyne W 74-73 52%    
  Sat, Jan 17 363 @St. Francis (PA) W 73-65 76%    
  Mon, Jan 19 329 @Mercyhurst W 67-64 59%    
  Fri, Jan 23 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-65 89%    
  Sun, Jan 25 341 @Stonehill W 68-64 63%    
  Thu, Jan 29 301 @Wagner W 69-68 51%    
  Sat, Jan 31 211 LIU Brooklyn W 72-70 56%    
  Thu, Feb 5 338 Chicago St. W 76-67 80%    
  Sat, Feb 7 301 Wagner W 71-65 71%    
  Thu, Feb 12 337 @New Haven W 66-63 61%    
  Sat, Feb 14 362 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-68 74%    
  Thu, Feb 19 307 Le Moyne W 77-70 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 338 @Chicago St. W 73-70 61%    
  Thu, Feb 26 329 Mercyhurst W 70-61 78%    
  Sat, Feb 28 363 St. Francis (PA) W 76-62 89%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 5.5 10.7 12.7 10.3 6.5 47.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 5.5 7.3 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.1 4.6 1.7 0.2 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.2 0.8 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.3 0.6 0.0 4.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.5 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.1 6.4 9.4 12.3 14.4 15.0 13.9 10.5 6.5 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 99.8% 6.5    6.4 0.1
15-1 98.0% 10.3    9.8 0.5 0.0
14-2 91.2% 12.7    10.4 2.2 0.1
13-3 71.4% 10.7    6.4 3.8 0.5 0.0
12-4 37.8% 5.5    1.8 2.7 0.9 0.1
11-5 11.4% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 47.1% 47.1 35.0 9.8 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 6.5% 53.4% 53.4% 14.9 0.1 0.8 2.1 0.5 3.0
15-1 10.5% 48.5% 48.5% 15.3 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.0 5.4
14-2 13.9% 41.8% 41.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.1 8.1
13-3 15.0% 35.5% 35.5% 15.9 0.0 0.7 4.6 9.7
12-4 14.4% 29.4% 29.4% 15.9 0.0 0.3 3.9 10.2
11-5 12.3% 23.4% 23.4% 16.0 0.1 2.8 9.4
10-6 9.4% 18.7% 18.7% 16.0 0.0 1.7 7.6
9-7 6.4% 13.5% 13.5% 16.0 0.9 5.5
8-8 4.1% 10.8% 10.8% 16.0 0.4 3.7
7-9 2.4% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.2 2.2
6-10 1.1% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.1 1.0
5-11 0.5% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-12 0.1% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 30.1% 30.1% 0.0% 15.6 0.1 1.4 7.5 21.1 69.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.6 1.9 42.9 46.7 8.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%