Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.2#348
Expected Predictive Rating-13.7#330
Pace67.9#216
Improvement+1.7#53

Offense
Total Offense-6.0#329
First Shot-7.2#338
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#106
Layup/Dunks-5.1#329
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#161
Freethrows-2.6#318
Improvement+1.1#77

Defense
Total Defense-8.2#351
First Shot-8.1#355
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#185
Layups/Dunks-5.0#321
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#60
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#307
Freethrows-1.6#278
Improvement+0.7#116
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 6.0% 7.1% 4.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 52.7% 48.4% 58.8%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Home) - 58.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 60 - 10
Quad 46 - 147 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 26   @ Connecticut L 48-99 1%     0 - 1 -34.8 -19.1 -13.7
  Nov 14, 2021 216   @ Brown L 57-75 9%     0 - 2 -17.3 -8.7 -9.7
  Nov 16, 2021 64   North Carolina St. L 65-79 3%     0 - 3 -6.5 -5.3 -1.3
  Nov 17, 2021 209   Umass Lowell L 53-77 13%     0 - 4 -26.0 -17.8 -9.4
  Nov 20, 2021 294   @ Quinnipiac L 65-76 17%     0 - 5 -15.3 -6.5 -9.2
  Nov 23, 2021 352   @ Maine W 64-56 44%     1 - 5 -4.7 -4.7 +0.8
  Nov 28, 2021 246   Fordham L 83-89 2OT 26%     1 - 6 -13.6 -5.9 -6.6
  Dec 01, 2021 343   Holy Cross W 73-71 58%    
  Dec 04, 2021 195   @ New Hampshire L 59-75 7%    
  Dec 11, 2021 54   @ Providence L 57-83 1%    
  Dec 14, 2021 219   @ Stony Brook L 63-78 9%    
  Dec 18, 2021 265   Hartford L 69-74 32%    
  Dec 23, 2021 87   @ Rutgers L 55-79 2%    
  Dec 29, 2021 236   Bryant L 72-79 24%    
  Dec 31, 2021 331   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 70-76 28%    
  Jan 06, 2022 309   Sacred Heart L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 08, 2022 232   Merrimack L 58-66 24%    
  Jan 15, 2022 276   @ LIU Brooklyn L 69-80 16%    
  Jan 17, 2022 309   @ Sacred Heart L 68-77 20%    
  Jan 21, 2022 267   @ St. Francis (PA) L 68-79 16%    
  Jan 23, 2022 299   @ Mount St. Mary's L 59-69 19%    
  Jan 27, 2022 276   LIU Brooklyn L 72-77 32%    
  Jan 29, 2022 325   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 73-80 24%    
  Feb 03, 2022 156   Wagner L 63-75 14%    
  Feb 05, 2022 325   Fairleigh Dickinson L 76-77 44%    
  Feb 10, 2022 232   @ Merrimack L 55-69 11%    
  Feb 12, 2022 331   St. Francis Brooklyn L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 17, 2022 236   @ Bryant L 69-82 12%    
  Feb 19, 2022 156   @ Wagner L 60-78 6%    
  Feb 24, 2022 267   St. Francis (PA) L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 26, 2022 299   Mount St. Mary's L 62-66 38%    
Projected Record 7 - 24 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.4 5th
6th 0.4 2.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 3.1 3.5 1.6 0.1 9.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 5.6 4.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 14.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 3.9 7.9 7.0 2.6 0.3 22.8 9th
10th 2.3 7.5 10.9 11.5 6.3 2.0 0.2 0.0 40.8 10th
Total 2.3 7.5 11.9 15.6 15.8 15.3 11.3 8.4 6.0 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 40.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 11.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 6.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 24.6% 24.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.4% 12.5% 12.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 0.7% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
10-8 1.6% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.1 1.5
9-9 3.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 3.1
8-10 6.0% 6.0
7-11 8.4% 8.4
6-12 11.3% 11.3
5-13 15.3% 15.3
4-14 15.8% 15.8
3-15 15.6% 15.6
2-16 11.9% 11.9
1-17 7.5% 7.5
0-18 2.3% 2.3
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%