Patriot League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
100 Colgate 35.2%   15   2 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 10 14 - 4 +5.1      +5.8 36 -0.7 200 73.6 83 +2.4 140 0.0 1
105 Navy 32.2%   4 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 7 14 - 4 +4.4      -0.1 173 +4.5 59 66.3 250 +11.9 48 0.0 1
130 Boston University 21.9%   3 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 9 13 - 5 +2.5      +2.0 112 +0.5 149 63.8 306 +2.5 137 0.0 1
222 Army 6.9%   3 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 8 -2.7      -2.9 264 +0.2 169 71.1 127 +0.8 163 0.0 1
295 Lehigh 1.2%   1 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -7.5      -5.5 318 -1.9 241 72.1 99 -12.1 325 0.0 1
298 Bucknell 1.1%   1 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 21 7 - 11 -7.7      -2.4 246 -5.3 322 77.8 28 -12.3 326 0.0 1
301 Loyola Maryland 1.2%   1 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -7.9      -6.0 330 -1.9 239 68.0 219 -13.7 335 0.0 1
304 Lafayette 1.3%   1 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -8.0      -2.9 265 -5.1 318 70.2 154 -4.0 232 0.0 1
321 American 0.4%   2 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 21 6 - 12 -9.4      -4.5 295 -4.9 309 68.2 216 -7.4 285 0.0 1
343 Holy Cross 0.0%   0 - 5 0 - 0 5 - 24 4 - 14 -13.0      -6.3 337 -6.7 339 70.1 162 -16.9 347 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 1.9 46.8 28.1 15.8 6.4 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1
Navy 2.0 42.2 29.6 18.0 6.4 2.3 0.9 0.5 0.1
Boston University 2.6 24.5 28.3 26.7 11.7 5.3 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Army 4.4 4.7 9.9 18.1 27.2 16.6 9.9 6.9 3.8 2.1 0.8
Lehigh 6.3 0.3 1.9 5.0 12.1 17.0 18.9 15.0 13.6 10.2 6.2
Bucknell 6.5 0.6 1.8 3.6 11.6 15.6 17.6 15.6 15.3 11.3 6.9
Loyola Maryland 6.5 0.8 1.5 4.6 11.4 15.8 15.9 16.1 13.8 13.0 7.1
Lafayette 6.6 0.4 1.1 4.5 9.9 15.4 17.1 16.4 13.7 12.4 9.2
American 7.1 0.1 0.8 2.6 7.7 11.6 14.2 16.0 16.6 18.0 12.5
Holy Cross 8.5 0.1 0.6 2.6 4.4 5.8 9.8 15.3 22.9 38.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 14 - 4 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.9 5.5 9.1 13.5 17.2 19.1 16.3 10.9 3.4
Navy 14 - 4 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.8 3.3 5.9 10.0 14.8 17.5 18.0 15.4 9.5 2.6
Boston University 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.1 2.6 3.8 6.1 10.6 13.8 16.8 16.8 13.7 9.6 3.8 0.9
Army 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.5 2.2 4.9 7.9 11.3 12.8 14.0 13.4 12.8 8.0 5.8 3.5 1.0 0.4 0.0
Lehigh 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.6 6.7 11.2 13.2 15.6 15.4 11.1 8.9 5.2 2.9 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
Bucknell 7 - 11 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.9 8.3 11.4 14.9 15.6 13.2 11.4 7.6 4.9 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1
Loyola Maryland 7 - 11 0.1 1.0 2.5 5.7 7.8 11.7 14.9 14.4 13.2 10.7 7.6 5.0 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Lafayette 7 - 11 0.4 1.1 3.3 6.1 8.9 11.1 14.5 14.8 13.9 10.9 6.6 4.7 2.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0
American 6 - 12 0.4 1.9 4.9 8.0 12.3 15.0 14.5 14.1 11.0 7.8 5.0 3.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1
Holy Cross 4 - 14 3.1 8.1 13.9 17.1 16.3 14.1 11.0 7.3 4.3 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 46.8% 33.8 11.3 1.7 0.1 0.0
Navy 42.2% 29.3 11.1 1.7 0.1 0.0
Boston University 24.5% 15.5 7.5 1.5 0.1 0.0
Army 4.7% 2.4 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Lehigh 0.3% 0.1 0.2 0.1
Bucknell 0.6% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 0.8% 0.2 0.3 0.4
Lafayette 0.4% 0.1 0.3 0.1
American 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0
Holy Cross


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 35.2% 34.8% 0.4% 15   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.6 5.9 10.7 10.1 4.8 0.9 64.8 0.6%
Navy 32.2% 31.2% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.9 8.1 10.6 7.3 2.2 0.4 67.8 1.4%
Boston University 21.9% 21.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 5.0 7.8 6.2 1.5 78.1 0.0%
Army 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.4 2.6 93.1 0.0%
Lehigh 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 98.8 0.0%
Bucknell 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 98.9 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.2 1.0 98.8 0.0%
Lafayette 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.9 98.7 0.0%
American 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Holy Cross 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Colgate 35.2% 0.3% 35.0% 7.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 32.2% 0.7% 31.9% 5.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 21.9% 0.2% 21.8% 2.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 6.9% 0.8% 6.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 1.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 1.2% 0.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 1.3% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.6 1.4
1st Round 97.3% 1.0 2.7 96.4 0.9
2nd Round 16.1% 0.2 83.9 16.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0