Patriot League
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
121 Colgate 53.5%   15   4 - 4 0 - 0 21 - 9 14 - 4 +3.4      +4.6 59 -1.3 214 69.2 165 -1.2 199 0.0 1
170 Navy 20.6%   5 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 -0.1      +0.3 163 -0.4 194 63.3 317 +1.8 148 0.0 1
216 Bucknell 8.3%   4 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 14 10 - 8 -3.0      +1.4 130 -4.4 297 65.7 259 -4.0 238 0.0 1
235 American 6.2%   5 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 8 -3.8      -1.3 208 -2.5 250 63.8 306 +0.7 164 0.0 1
256 Boston University 4.4%   3 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 16 9 - 9 -4.7      -3.8 292 -0.9 209 64.3 292 -6.0 267 0.0 1
268 Lafayette 3.1%   1 - 7 0 - 0 11 - 20 9 - 9 -5.5      -4.0 299 -1.5 222 58.3 359 -11.5 319 0.0 1
295 Loyola Maryland 1.5%   3 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -7.3      -4.6 309 -2.7 258 66.2 250 -3.1 227 0.0 1
296 Lehigh 1.3%   3 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 16 7 - 11 -7.6      -5.1 318 -2.5 252 78.6 20 -5.7 263 0.0 1
305 Army 1.1%   1 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -8.0      -1.8 220 -6.2 322 72.0 97 -14.4 336 0.0 1
353 Holy Cross 0.0%   0 - 6 0 - 0 5 - 24 4 - 14 -14.4      -7.5 348 -6.9 332 70.9 120 -19.3 359 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 1.7 62.2 20.5 9.0 4.3 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Navy 2.8 25.8 28.4 17.9 11.0 7.1 4.4 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.2
Bucknell 4.1 10.5 16.8 17.9 16.1 12.7 9.9 7.4 5.1 2.7 0.8
American 4.5 7.9 14.2 16.2 15.8 13.9 11.9 8.7 6.4 4.0 1.0
Boston University 5.0 5.3 10.6 13.7 14.7 14.8 13.0 11.0 9.1 5.8 2.0
Lafayette 5.4 3.6 8.5 11.7 13.9 14.4 14.1 12.7 10.9 7.5 2.6
Loyola Maryland 6.3 1.8 4.6 7.0 9.5 11.8 14.0 15.3 15.8 14.3 6.0
Lehigh 6.5 1.7 4.2 6.6 9.0 11.4 13.9 15.0 16.3 15.0 6.9
Army 6.7 1.3 3.3 6.0 8.6 10.4 13.2 15.0 16.6 17.1 8.4
Holy Cross 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.6 3.2 5.6 10.4 21.0 56.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.8 3.4 6.4 9.8 13.7 17.2 17.9 15.8 9.6 3.2
Navy 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.4 4.2 6.9 9.8 13.1 15.4 15.2 13.3 9.8 5.4 2.2 0.5
Bucknell 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 4.3 7.0 9.8 12.4 14.0 14.3 12.5 9.9 6.4 3.6 1.5 0.4 0.1
American 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.0 5.7 8.2 11.3 13.6 14.3 13.3 11.0 8.2 5.1 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.0
Boston University 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.8 7.6 10.5 12.5 14.2 13.7 11.7 9.1 6.0 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Lafayette 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.4 5.9 9.1 12.0 13.7 14.4 12.9 10.6 7.4 4.5 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.8 6.8 10.5 12.9 14.4 13.7 12.1 9.5 6.2 4.1 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lehigh 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.4 7.4 10.8 12.8 14.5 13.4 11.7 9.2 5.7 3.8 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Army 7 - 11 0.1 0.9 2.5 5.4 8.4 11.6 13.5 14.4 13.0 11.0 8.2 5.3 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Holy Cross 4 - 14 5.1 12.4 17.5 18.2 16.2 12.3 8.1 5.1 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 62.2% 49.2 10.9 1.9 0.2 0.0
Navy 25.8% 16.5 7.7 1.4 0.2 0.0
Bucknell 10.5% 5.9 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
American 7.9% 4.3 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
Boston University 5.3% 2.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Lafayette 3.6% 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.1
Loyola Maryland 1.8% 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lehigh 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Army 1.3% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Holy Cross 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 53.5% 53.4% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 2.8 11.6 20.2 13.7 4.5 46.6 0.1%
Navy 20.6% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.6 7.4 6.4 2.4 79.4 0.0%
Bucknell 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 4.1 91.7 0.0%
American 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 2.7 93.8 0.0%
Boston University 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.7 95.6 0.0%
Lafayette 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.6 96.9 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 98.6 0.0%
Lehigh 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 98.7 0.0%
Army 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 98.9 0.0%
Holy Cross 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Colgate 53.5% 1.4% 52.9% 5.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 20.6% 0.9% 20.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 8.3% 2.4% 7.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 6.2% 1.4% 5.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 4.4% 1.8% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 3.1% 2.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 1.5% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 93.7% 0.9 6.3 93.6 0.0
2nd Round 7.6% 0.1 92.5 7.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0