Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
178 Colgate 31.1%   16   4 - 5 0 - 0 17 - 12 13 - 5 -1.3      +0.3 160 -1.5 219 67.4 237 -0.4 175 0.0 1
204 Navy 21.4%   5 - 5 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 -2.9      -3.0 248 0.0 162 67.4 240 -3.2 215 0.0 1
242 American 14.4%   5 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 -4.7      -3.1 251 -1.6 222 72.7 101 -2.2 206 0.0 1
280 Boston University 8.9%   3 - 7 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 9 -6.3      +0.7 145 -7.0 351 60.4 361 -7.6 282 0.0 1
288 Holy Cross 7.2%   3 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -7.1      -3.1 252 -3.9 308 65.1 294 -3.5 223 0.0 1
300 Bucknell 5.2%   3 - 9 0 - 0 11 - 20 8 - 10 -7.7      -5.5 316 -2.3 245 68.3 217 -8.3 292 0.0 1
308 Lehigh 4.7%   2 - 8 0 - 0 10 - 19 8 - 10 -8.2      -4.5 294 -3.8 300 67.5 234 -11.6 322 0.0 1
323 Lafayette 3.4%   2 - 8 0 - 0 10 - 20 7 - 11 -9.3      -6.1 330 -3.2 278 68.4 209 -13.4 336 0.0 1
330 Loyola Maryland 2.4%   2 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 20 7 - 11 -10.3      -3.4 258 -6.9 350 67.8 223 -15.1 349 0.0 1
340 Army 1.5%   2 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 12 -11.3      -5.2 310 -6.1 345 69.0 195 -10.5 313 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Dec 8 323 Lafayette 72 252 Penn 74   
Tue, Dec 9 300 Bucknell 51 344 Rider 38   
Tue, Dec 9 330 Loyola Maryland 70 331 VMI 86   
Wed, Dec 10 178 Colgate 77 105 St. Bonaventure 85   
Wed, Dec 10 280 Boston University 59 316 Maine 69   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Dec 12 340 Army 70 275 Maryland Baltimore Co. 78 78%   
Sat, Dec 13 280 Boston University 73 265 Dartmouth 76 64%   
Sat, Dec 13 330 Loyola Maryland 74 306 Mount St. Mary's 73 53%   
Tue, Dec 16 265 Dartmouth 73 288 Holy Cross 75 56%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 2.3 46.0 22.1 12.5 7.6 4.9 3.1 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.3
Navy 3.0 29.5 23.0 16.0 11.2 7.8 5.1 3.4 2.3 1.3 0.5
American 3.8 17.2 18.3 16.5 13.4 10.9 8.5 6.2 4.5 3.0 1.5
Boston University 4.8 9.1 12.4 14.1 13.9 12.8 11.4 9.6 7.8 5.6 3.3
Holy Cross 5.2 7.2 10.4 12.4 13.0 12.7 11.7 11.0 9.5 7.4 4.7
Bucknell 5.6 5.0 8.1 10.4 12.4 12.9 13.3 12.3 10.9 8.5 6.2
Lehigh 5.9 4.2 7.1 9.4 11.2 12.5 12.5 12.5 11.9 10.4 8.1
Lafayette 6.5 2.6 4.8 7.0 9.4 10.5 12.1 13.5 14.1 14.1 12.0
Loyola Maryland 7.1 1.5 3.1 5.2 7.4 9.1 10.9 13.0 15.1 17.1 17.6
Army 7.6 1.0 2.1 3.6 5.5 7.2 9.5 12.2 15.0 19.3 24.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.3 5.3 7.8 11.4 13.9 15.2 14.8 12.7 8.0 3.8 0.9
Navy 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.4 5.4 8.4 11.3 13.7 14.8 14.2 11.4 8.1 4.2 1.5 0.4
American 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.0 6.2 9.5 11.8 13.4 14.0 12.9 10.3 7.1 4.4 2.0 0.6 0.1
Boston University 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.5 6.9 10.0 12.4 14.0 13.5 12.3 9.8 6.4 3.9 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Holy Cross 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.3 5.7 8.9 11.4 13.0 13.5 12.9 10.9 8.0 5.3 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
Bucknell 8 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 4.1 6.8 10.1 12.8 14.2 14.2 12.1 9.4 6.3 3.9 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Lehigh 8 - 10 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.9 5.3 8.1 10.9 13.5 13.6 13.5 11.2 8.2 5.6 3.3 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Lafayette 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.5 7.4 10.8 13.1 14.0 13.6 11.4 9.2 6.2 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 7 - 11 0.2 1.2 3.4 6.4 9.9 12.6 14.3 14.3 12.4 9.7 7.1 4.2 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Army 6 - 12 0.5 2.2 4.9 8.6 12.3 14.5 14.5 13.4 10.9 7.7 5.0 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 46.0% 34.0 9.6 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Navy 29.5% 19.8 7.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
American 17.2% 10.6 4.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Boston University 9.1% 5.1 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Holy Cross 7.2% 3.9 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
Bucknell 5.0% 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Lehigh 4.2% 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lafayette 2.6% 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Loyola Maryland 1.5% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Army 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 31.1% 31.1% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.4 2.4 7.2 12.3 8.7 68.9 0.0%
Navy 21.4% 21.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 7.4 10.9 78.6 0.0%
American 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 4.5 8.5 85.7 0.0%
Boston University 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 7.6 91.1 0.0%
Holy Cross 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 5.7 92.8 0.0%
Bucknell 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 94.8 0.0%
Lehigh 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.4 95.3 0.0%
Lafayette 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.1 3.3 96.6 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 2.3 97.6 0.0%
Army 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.5 98.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Colgate 31.1% 3.0% 29.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 21.4% 4.7% 19.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 14.4% 4.0% 12.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 8.9% 5.5% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 7.2% 3.7% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 5.2% 4.2% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 4.7% 3.8% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 3.4% 3.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.4% 2.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 1.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 82.7% 0.8 17.3 82.7
2nd Round 1.2% 0.0 98.9 1.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0