Boston University
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.1 #289
Expected Predictive Rating -9.1 #313
Pace 60.4 #358
Improvement -1.2 #241

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #154 B- D+ C- D+ C+
Defense #352 D- C- F+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #262 1.18 #149 -1.4 #233
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #268 0.81 #95 -1.1 #244
Three Pointers 48% #44 1.13 #37 +6.2 #23
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #73 +3.7 #73
Freethrows 0.29 #250 70% #261 0.20 #257
Second Chance 25.2% #323 1.02 #183 0.26 #296
Turnovers 18.2% #263
Total Offense +0.3 #154

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #137 1.16 #184 -1.1 #212
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #167 0.93 #359 -1.9 #323
Three Pointers 39% #248 1.23 #365 -3.2 #310
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #348 -6.2 #349
Freethrows 0.30 #165 73% #221 0.22 #166
Second Chance 31.0% #201 1.07 #254 0.33 #233
Turnovers 12.6% #357
Total Defense -7.4 #352

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #151 0.2% #181
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.5% #75 11.9% #356
Possession Length 19.2 #342 17.3 #192
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #357 0.15 #106
Improvement -2.0 #295 +0.8 #137

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.1% 6.6% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 2.4% 3.4% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 33.1% 42.2% 12.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.9% 6.3% 21.1%
First Four5.4% 5.6% 4.8%
First Round3.7% 3.9% 3.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Home) - 69.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 61 - 8
Quad 411 - 1113 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 262 @Northeastern W 76 - 75 OT 34% -2  1 - 0 -2 -6 D D+ D- +4 A C C
 Fri, Nov 7 67 @Northwestern L 52 - 76 5% -18  1 - 1 -13 -8 C F F -9 D- B+ F+
 Wed, Nov 12 282 Brown W 90 - 77 60% +14  2 - 1 +3 +26 A+ A+ D+ -21 F+ F F
 Sat, Nov 15 194 Merrimack L 79 - 91 42% -10  2 - 2 -17 +12 A+ C A- -30 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 183 @Columbia L 49 - 54 21% -12  2 - 3 -3 -15 F D- A +11 B A+ C
 Sat, Nov 22 163 Harvard W 75 - 74 26% -2  3 - 3 +1 +9 A+ C F -8 F+ D+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 114 @Penn St. L 87 - 96 11% -12  3 - 4 -3 +23 A+ B- A -27 F F+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 201 @Northern Kentucky L 65 - 74 24% +2  3 - 5 -9 +0 B D+ F -10 A F C
 Sat, Dec 6 321 @New Hampshire L 82 - 88 OT 49% +6  3 - 6 -13 +1 D+ B D+ -13 F C F
 Wed, Dec 10 337 Maine L 59 - 69 75% -7  3 - 7 -24 -9 F B- F -16 F A C
 Sat, Dec 13 229 @Dartmouth L 64 - 77 27% -9  3 - 8 -14 -5 D D C- -10 D- B+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 325 Umass Lowell W 88 - 76 72% +9  4 - 8 -1 +16 A+ A+ D- -16 F D D-
 Wed, Dec 31 174 @Navy L 77 - 82 19% -5  4 - 9 0 - 1 -3 +11 B D- A+ -14 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 253 American L 62 - 64 54% -5  4 - 10 0 - 2 -10 -2 F B- A+ -9 D- A D-
 Wed, Jan 7 315 @Lafayette W 83 - 67 47% +10  5 - 10 1 - 2 +10 +13 A D C+ -3 C- A F
 Sat, Jan 10 339 Army W 100 - 91 75% +8  6 - 10 2 - 2 -5 +21 A+ D+ D+ -26 F F+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 304 Lehigh L 91 - 93 OT 66% -6  6 - 11 2 - 3 -13 +6 A- F B -19 D- C F
 Sat, Jan 17 316 @Loyola Maryland L 57 - 74 47% -1  6 - 12 2 - 4 -23 -21 F F F -3 B- F F
 Wed, Jan 21 315 Lafayette W 77 - 73 OT 69% -2  7 - 12 3 - 4 -8 -2 B- F+ F -6 C- A F
 Sat, Jan 24 219 @Colgate L 79 - 80 OT 26% +3  7 - 13 3 - 5 -1 +2 A- F D -3 D+ F+ B
 Wed, Jan 28 174 Navy L 50 - 58 38% +2  7 - 14 3 - 6 -12 -10 D C- F -4 F A C
 Sat, Jan 31 313 @Bucknell L 97 - 103 2OT 46% -3  7 - 15 3 - 7 -12 +14 D+ B- A+ -25 F F+ F
 Mon, Feb 2 326 @Holy Cross W 72 - 64 51% +3  8 - 15 4 - 7 +1 +10 A F B -8 C+ F+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 316 Loyola Maryland W 77 - 72 69%
 Wed, Feb 11 339 @Army W 74 - 73 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 313 Bucknell W 73 - 68 68%
 Mon, Feb 16 219 Colgate L 72 - 73 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 304 @Lehigh L 70 - 72 44%
 Wed, Feb 25 326 Holy Cross W 74 - 68 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 253 @American L 68 - 73 31%
Totals 12 - 18 8 - 10 -7 +0 B- D+ C- -7 D- C- F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 0.9 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.4 5.5 1.0 9.9 3rd
4th 0.0 3.0 12.0 3.0 0.0 18.0 4th
5th 0.6 11.0 6.1 0.1 17.6 5th
6th 0.0 5.2 10.2 0.6 16.0 6th
7th 0.9 11.2 2.8 0.0 14.9 7th
8th 0.2 4.8 6.5 0.2 11.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 4.9 0.7 6.8 9th
10th 0.4 2.2 1.1 0.0 3.7 10th
Total 0.4 3.5 11.7 24.1 27.2 22.0 9.3 1.8 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 1.8% 13.7% 13.7% 15.2 0.2 0.0 1.6
10-8 9.3% 12.3% 12.3% 15.9 0.1 1.1 8.1
9-9 22.0% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 1.9 20.1
8-10 27.2% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 1.6 25.6
7-11 24.1% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8 23.3
6-12 11.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.4 11.3
5-13 3.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 3.4
4-14 0.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 16.0 93.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 15.2 84.0 16.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 0.3%