Boston University
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#144
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#134
Pace63.3#316
Improvement+0.7#124

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#109
First Shot+3.1#94
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#236
Layup/Dunks+2.4#90
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#315
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#89
Freethrows+0.7#131
Improvement+2.8#11

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#189
First Shot-2.2#251
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#79
Layups/Dunks-3.7#289
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#34
Freethrows-1.1#249
Improvement-2.1#333
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.8% 23.2% 16.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 96.4% 98.1% 93.2%
.500 or above in Conference 95.0% 96.0% 93.0%
Conference Champion 24.4% 27.2% 19.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round20.6% 22.9% 16.1%
Second Round2.1% 2.3% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Washington (Away) - 65.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 34 - 7
Quad 418 - 322 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 78   @ Rhode Island L 62-71 22%     0 - 1 +0.9 -7.2 +8.3
  Nov 16, 2021 148   @ Northeastern L 48-49 39%     0 - 2 +3.4 -11.4 +14.7
  Nov 18, 2021 265   @ Hartford W 75-70 67%     1 - 2 +2.3 +6.3 -3.6
  Nov 21, 2021 312   Northern Illinois W 76-58 83%     2 - 2 +9.6 +11.8 +0.4
  Nov 22, 2021 218   Sam Houston St. W 72-59 65%     3 - 2 +10.6 +3.2 +8.2
  Nov 24, 2021 31   @ Florida St. L 80-81 OT 11%     3 - 3 +14.2 +11.1 +3.2
  Nov 28, 2021 232   Merrimack W 61-60 78%     4 - 3 -5.4 +4.1 -9.2
  Dec 01, 2021 262   @ George Washington W 69-65 66%    
  Dec 04, 2021 323   Binghamton W 75-61 91%    
  Dec 08, 2021 209   Umass Lowell W 73-66 73%    
  Dec 11, 2021 230   @ Dartmouth W 65-63 57%    
  Dec 18, 2021 255   Marist W 70-60 81%    
  Jan 01, 2022 291   Bucknell W 79-67 86%    
  Jan 04, 2022 101   @ Navy L 62-68 29%    
  Jan 07, 2022 287   Loyola Maryland W 73-62 85%    
  Jan 10, 2022 320   @ American W 73-65 75%    
  Jan 13, 2022 249   @ Army W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 16, 2022 101   Navy W 65-64 50%    
  Jan 19, 2022 287   @ Loyola Maryland W 70-65 69%    
  Jan 22, 2022 313   Lehigh W 75-62 89%    
  Jan 26, 2022 272   @ Lafayette W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 29, 2022 111   Colgate W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 31, 2022 343   Holy Cross W 78-60 94%    
  Feb 05, 2022 313   @ Lehigh W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 09, 2022 249   Army W 74-65 79%    
  Feb 12, 2022 320   American W 76-62 89%    
  Feb 16, 2022 343   @ Holy Cross W 75-63 86%    
  Feb 19, 2022 111   @ Colgate L 71-76 34%    
  Feb 23, 2022 272   Lafayette W 75-64 83%    
  Feb 26, 2022 291   @ Bucknell W 76-70 70%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 4.2 7.3 7.3 3.4 0.8 24.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.8 7.7 8.5 4.6 0.8 26.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 5.7 9.2 7.0 2.1 0.2 26.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 4.0 4.6 1.7 0.3 12.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.2 3.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.9 5.6 7.8 11.4 14.8 16.4 14.7 12.1 8.1 3.4 0.8 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 3.4    3.3 0.1
16-2 89.7% 7.3    5.9 1.4 0.0
15-3 60.1% 7.3    3.6 3.2 0.5
14-4 28.4% 4.2    1.5 2.0 0.6
13-5 8.3% 1.4    0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.4% 24.4 15.4 7.5 1.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 65.8% 63.1% 2.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7.2%
17-1 3.4% 53.8% 53.2% 0.6% 12.8 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.6 1.3%
16-2 8.1% 40.7% 40.7% 13.5 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.3 4.8
15-3 12.1% 31.0% 31.0% 13.8 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 8.3
14-4 14.7% 24.1% 24.1% 14.4 0.3 1.5 1.6 0.1 11.2
13-5 16.4% 19.6% 19.6% 14.8 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.4 13.2
12-6 14.8% 15.1% 15.1% 15.1 0.3 1.5 0.5 12.6
11-7 11.4% 11.3% 11.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 10.1
10-8 7.8% 8.3% 8.3% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 7.1
9-9 5.6% 7.1% 7.1% 15.5 0.2 0.2 5.2
8-10 2.9% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.8
7-11 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
6-12 0.5% 0.5
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.8% 20.8% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.8 6.5 6.9 2.2 79.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 9.7 10.5 22.1 11.6 11.6 10.5 22.1 11.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 23.8% 11.0 23.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%