American
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#248
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#212
Pace72.4#103
Improvement+1.1#99

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#255
First Shot+1.3#137
After Offensive Rebound-4.6#357
Layup/Dunks-1.8#249
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#326
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#40
Freethrows+0.7#132
Improvement+0.5#133

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#226
First Shot-4.1#312
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#32
Layups/Dunks-4.6#327
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#129
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#64
Freethrows-3.5#346
Improvement+0.6#136
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.9% 19.7% 13.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.0 15.6
.500 or above 68.3% 89.7% 67.4%
.500 or above in Conference 76.7% 88.3% 76.2%
Conference Champion 17.1% 27.0% 16.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.5% 3.4%
First Four4.9% 2.2% 5.0%
First Round11.3% 18.7% 11.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 4.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 416 - 717 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 53 @Wake Forest L 74-88 5%     0 - 1 -0.8 +2.6 -2.4
  Sun, Nov 9 254 Penn W 84-78 63%     1 - 1 -2.3 -1.9 -0.9
  Wed, Nov 12 79 @George Washington L 67-107 8%     1 - 2 -29.7 -8.8 -17.9
  Tue, Nov 18 130 @Rutgers L 71-80 18%     1 - 3 -4.2 +0.7 -4.8
  Fri, Nov 28 335 Maine W 74-61 80%     2 - 3 -0.8 +2.7 -2.8
  Sat, Nov 29 171 Siena L 55-59 46%     2 - 4 -7.9 -18.4 +10.5
  Sun, Nov 30 293 Longwood W 92-66 69%     3 - 4 +15.8 +11.1 +3.9
  Wed, Dec 3 287 Drexel W 75-73 68%     4 - 4 -7.7 +1.3 -9.0
  Sat, Dec 6 346 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-60 82%     5 - 4 +3.2 +8.7 -3.3
  Thu, Dec 18 50 @Virginia Commonwealth L 65-84 4%    
  Mon, Dec 22 25 @Virginia L 64-87 1%    
  Wed, Dec 31 340 Loyola Maryland W 81-72 80%    
  Sat, Jan 3 288 @Boston University L 72-73 46%    
  Wed, Jan 7 178 @Colgate L 71-78 27%    
  Sat, Jan 10 311 Holy Cross W 76-69 73%    
  Mon, Jan 12 207 Navy W 72-71 54%    
  Sun, Jan 18 332 @Army W 75-73 59%    
  Wed, Jan 21 178 Colgate L 74-75 47%    
  Sat, Jan 24 311 @Holy Cross W 73-72 53%    
  Wed, Jan 28 340 @Loyola Maryland W 78-75 61%    
  Sat, Jan 31 320 Lafayette W 76-69 75%    
  Wed, Feb 4 305 Bucknell W 75-69 70%    
  Sat, Feb 7 207 @Navy L 69-74 33%    
  Wed, Feb 11 308 @Lehigh W 73-72 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 332 Army W 78-70 78%    
  Wed, Feb 18 305 @Bucknell L 72-73 50%    
  Sat, Feb 21 320 @Lafayette W 73-72 54%    
  Wed, Feb 25 308 Lehigh W 76-69 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 288 Boston University W 75-70 67%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.1 4.7 3.8 1.9 0.6 0.1 17.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.4 6.6 5.3 2.4 0.6 0.0 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.1 6.7 4.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 16.6 3rd
4th 0.3 3.3 6.4 3.0 0.5 0.0 13.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.2 2.4 0.2 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 2.2 0.2 6.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 2.0 1.8 0.3 4.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 4.0 6.2 9.3 11.7 13.7 13.7 13.0 10.4 7.2 4.3 1.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 98.4% 1.9    1.7 0.1
15-3 87.0% 3.8    3.1 0.7 0.0
14-4 65.2% 4.7    2.9 1.6 0.2
13-5 39.6% 4.1    1.7 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 13.1% 1.7    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.2
11-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.1% 17.1 10.4 5.1 1.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 40.5% 40.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.6% 43.3% 43.3% 14.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.9% 37.2% 37.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.2
15-3 4.3% 31.7% 31.7% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 3.0
14-4 7.2% 24.1% 24.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 5.4
13-5 10.4% 22.9% 22.9% 15.6 0.1 0.8 1.5 8.0
12-6 13.0% 18.8% 18.8% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.9 10.6
11-7 13.7% 12.2% 12.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.6 12.0
10-8 13.7% 10.9% 10.9% 15.9 0.1 1.4 12.2
9-9 11.7% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.0 0.9 10.8
8-10 9.3% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.5 8.9
7-11 6.2% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.2 6.0
6-12 4.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 3.9
5-13 2.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.7 9.2 86.1 0.0%