American
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#248
Expected Predictive Rating-3.7#227
Pace73.9#79
Improvement+1.4#75

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#275
First Shot+0.9#152
After Offensive Rebound-4.8#357
Layup/Dunks-0.3#183
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#100
Freethrows+1.5#106
Improvement-0.3#201

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#193
First Shot-1.3#218
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#153
Layups/Dunks-0.7#201
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#156
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#80
Freethrows-4.5#355
Improvement+1.7#44
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.8% 14.2% 10.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 58.7% 67.1% 43.5%
.500 or above in Conference 73.9% 77.3% 67.8%
Conference Champion 14.9% 16.9% 11.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 2.8% 5.1%
First Four4.3% 4.1% 4.8%
First Round10.7% 12.2% 8.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Home) - 64.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 415 - 716 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 53 @Wake Forest L 74-88 6%     0 - 1 -1.0 +2.8 -2.8
  Sun, Nov 9 237 Penn W 84-78 60%     1 - 1 -1.5 -2.0 +0.0
  Wed, Nov 12 61 @George Washington L 67-107 7%     1 - 2 -28.0 -9.0 -16.1
  Tue, Nov 18 119 @Rutgers L 71-80 16%     1 - 3 -2.9 +1.4 -4.3
  Fri, Nov 28 318 Maine W 74-61 75%     2 - 3 +1.1 +3.2 -1.4
  Sat, Nov 29 171 Siena L 55-59 48%     2 - 4 -8.1 -18.8 +10.7
  Sun, Nov 30 287 Longwood W 92-66 69%     3 - 4 +16.1 +11.3 +4.0
  Wed, Dec 3 260 Drexel W 72-68 64%    
  Sat, Dec 6 340 Maryland Eastern Shore W 70-61 81%    
  Thu, Dec 18 46 @Virginia Commonwealth L 65-84 4%    
  Mon, Dec 22 39 @Virginia L 64-84 3%    
  Wed, Dec 31 309 Loyola Maryland W 77-71 72%    
  Sat, Jan 3 234 @Boston University L 71-74 38%    
  Wed, Jan 7 172 @Colgate L 70-77 27%    
  Sat, Jan 10 330 Holy Cross W 76-68 77%    
  Mon, Jan 12 192 Navy W 73-72 51%    
  Sun, Jan 18 341 @Army W 76-73 62%    
  Wed, Jan 21 172 Colgate L 73-74 48%    
  Sat, Jan 24 330 @Holy Cross W 73-71 56%    
  Wed, Jan 28 309 @Loyola Maryland W 74-73 51%    
  Sat, Jan 31 334 Lafayette W 75-67 77%    
  Wed, Feb 4 307 Bucknell W 76-70 71%    
  Sat, Feb 7 192 @Navy L 70-76 31%    
  Wed, Feb 11 297 @Lehigh L 72-73 49%    
  Sat, Feb 14 341 Army W 79-70 80%    
  Wed, Feb 18 307 @Bucknell W 74-73 50%    
  Sat, Feb 21 334 @Lafayette W 72-70 58%    
  Wed, Feb 25 297 Lehigh W 75-69 70%    
  Sat, Feb 28 234 Boston University W 74-71 59%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.4 4.2 3.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 14.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.4 5.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 16.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.6 4.5 1.3 0.1 16.1 3rd
4th 0.3 3.1 6.5 4.0 0.7 0.0 14.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 5.6 2.9 0.5 11.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.5 7.0 9.8 11.9 13.3 13.9 12.1 10.0 6.6 3.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 97.7% 1.8    1.7 0.2
15-3 88.3% 3.3    2.6 0.7 0.0
14-4 64.4% 4.2    2.6 1.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 34.0% 3.4    1.3 1.5 0.5 0.1
12-6 11.6% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.9% 14.9 9.0 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 53.8% 53.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 44.9% 44.9% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.9% 37.7% 37.7% 14.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.2
15-3 3.7% 32.2% 32.2% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 2.5
14-4 6.6% 27.2% 27.2% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 4.8
13-5 10.0% 21.4% 21.4% 15.5 0.1 0.9 1.1 7.8
12-6 12.1% 16.6% 16.6% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.5 10.1
11-7 13.9% 12.5% 12.5% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.4 12.1
10-8 13.3% 9.8% 9.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.2 12.0
9-9 11.9% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8 11.1
8-10 9.8% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6 9.3
7-11 7.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 6.9
6-12 4.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 4.4
5-13 2.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 2.6
4-14 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-15 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.7 7.9 87.2 0.0%