American
Patriot League
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#216
Expected Predictive Rating+2.7#135
Pace64.0#298
Improvement+0.4#18

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#209
First Shot+0.1#168
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#257
Layup/Dunks+4.1#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#155
Freethrows-2.8#320
Improvement+0.0#156

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#219
First Shot-2.0#238
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#157
Layups/Dunks-1.9#257
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#150
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#147
Freethrows-1.8#279
Improvement+0.4#10
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.5% 12.2% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 90.0% 96.3% 86.3%
.500 or above in Conference 78.0% 83.7% 74.6%
Conference Champion 12.3% 16.0% 10.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.8% 1.9%
First Four1.2% 0.9% 1.4%
First Round8.9% 11.8% 7.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Washington (Away) - 37.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 33 - 43 - 5
Quad 415 - 618 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 304   @ Marist L 69-73 60%     0 - 1 -9.1 +1.4 -10.6
  Nov 13, 2022 147   @ George Mason L 56-73 25%     0 - 2 -12.7 -8.6 -6.0
  Nov 16, 2022 271   William & Mary W 71-64 72%     1 - 2 -1.6 +1.3 -2.0
  Nov 19, 2022 328   @ NJIT W 58-53 67%     2 - 2 -2.2 -10.3 +8.7
  Nov 23, 2022 173   @ Georgetown W 74-70 31%     3 - 2 +6.7 +0.4 +6.3
  Nov 26, 2022 332   @ St. Francis (PA) W 66-55 68%     4 - 2 +3.5 -4.7 +9.3
  Nov 29, 2022 329   Albany W 88-62 84%     5 - 2 +12.8 +23.3 -5.9
  Dec 06, 2022 237   @ Mount St. Mary's W 69-61 43%     6 - 2 +7.3 -1.3 +8.9
  Dec 10, 2022 207   @ George Washington L 70-74 37%    
  Dec 13, 2022 324   VMI W 77-67 83%    
  Dec 22, 2022 198   Siena W 67-65 59%    
  Dec 30, 2022 269   @ Lafayette L 61-62 49%    
  Jan 02, 2023 307   Loyola Maryland W 70-61 79%    
  Jan 05, 2023 350   @ Holy Cross W 72-64 75%    
  Jan 08, 2023 231   Boston University W 67-63 64%    
  Jan 11, 2023 294   @ Army W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 14, 2023 320   @ Lehigh W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 18, 2023 269   Lafayette W 64-58 69%    
  Jan 21, 2023 118   @ Colgate L 66-75 21%    
  Jan 25, 2023 294   Army W 75-67 76%    
  Jan 28, 2023 182   @ Navy L 64-69 34%    
  Feb 01, 2023 219   Bucknell W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 04, 2023 118   Colgate L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 08, 2023 231   @ Boston University L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 11, 2023 350   Holy Cross W 75-61 89%    
  Feb 13, 2023 219   @ Bucknell L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 18, 2023 320   Lehigh W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 22, 2023 182   Navy W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 25, 2023 307   @ Loyola Maryland W 67-64 60%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.7 3.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 12.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.4 6.1 3.2 0.8 0.1 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.7 6.0 2.0 0.2 17.8 3rd
4th 0.3 2.6 6.9 4.9 1.2 0.1 16.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.2 5.7 4.1 0.8 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.3 3.0 0.5 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.6 6.2 9.2 12.0 14.4 14.3 13.4 10.6 7.1 3.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 96.9% 1.7    1.5 0.2
15-3 80.5% 3.2    2.3 0.9 0.0
14-4 52.5% 3.7    1.8 1.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 22.6% 2.4    0.6 1.2 0.5 0.1
12-6 5.3% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.3% 12.3 6.8 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 35.9% 35.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.5% 41.2% 41.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.7% 32.8% 32.8% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.2
15-3 3.9% 25.2% 25.2% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 2.9
14-4 7.1% 20.5% 20.5% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 5.7
13-5 10.6% 14.5% 14.5% 14.8 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 9.0
12-6 13.4% 11.9% 11.9% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 11.8
11-7 14.3% 8.5% 8.5% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 13.1
10-8 14.4% 6.2% 6.2% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 13.6
9-9 12.0% 4.7% 4.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 11.4
8-10 9.2% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 8.9
7-11 6.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.1
6-12 3.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.5
5-13 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-14 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.7 2.8 90.5 0.0%