American
Patriot League
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.9#320
Expected Predictive Rating-8.1#287
Pace68.8#198
Improvement-2.4#334

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#272
First Shot-2.4#247
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#247
Layup/Dunks+0.3#155
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#47
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#259
Freethrows-2.9#332
Improvement+1.3#57

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#327
First Shot-8.0#353
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#47
Layups/Dunks-5.8#334
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#254
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#249
Freethrows+0.5#159
Improvement-3.7#356
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 6.5% 13.2% 4.8%
.500 or above in Conference 20.5% 26.4% 19.1%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 18.2% 12.7% 19.5%
First Four0.4% 1.0% 0.3%
First Round0.4% 1.2% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stony Brook (Away) - 19.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 31 - 81 - 11
Quad 410 - 1111 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 255   Marist W 77-73 OT 47%     1 - 0 -4.1 -6.3 +1.8
  Nov 12, 2021 332   @ William & Mary W 74-62 48%     2 - 0 +3.6 -6.9 +9.7
  Nov 16, 2021 128   @ Georgetown L 57-79 10%     2 - 1 -16.5 -18.0 +2.9
  Nov 19, 2021 210   @ Longwood L 42-82 18%     2 - 2 -39.1 -25.1 -18.9
  Nov 20, 2021 302   Western Carolina L 79-80 46%     2 - 3 -8.8 +2.5 -11.3
  Nov 23, 2021 211   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 67-98 18%     2 - 4 -30.1 -5.5 -25.4
  Nov 28, 2021 194   @ Duquesne L 79-88 16%     2 - 5 -7.5 +5.3 -12.6
  Dec 01, 2021 219   @ Stony Brook L 66-76 19%    
  Dec 04, 2021 310   @ Howard L 76-80 36%    
  Dec 08, 2021 267   St. Francis (PA) W 74-73 50%    
  Dec 11, 2021 299   @ Mount St. Mary's L 62-67 34%    
  Dec 21, 2021 115   @ George Mason L 64-79 8%    
  Dec 28, 2021 275   Siena W 69-68 50%    
  Jan 01, 2022 313   Lehigh W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 04, 2022 272   Lafayette W 72-71 50%    
  Jan 07, 2022 111   @ Colgate L 68-84 8%    
  Jan 10, 2022 144   Boston University L 65-73 25%    
  Jan 13, 2022 343   @ Holy Cross W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 16, 2022 291   Bucknell W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 19, 2022 249   @ Army L 69-76 25%    
  Jan 22, 2022 287   @ Loyola Maryland L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 26, 2022 343   Holy Cross W 75-68 74%    
  Jan 29, 2022 101   @ Navy L 59-75 7%    
  Feb 02, 2022 272   @ Lafayette L 69-75 30%    
  Feb 05, 2022 111   Colgate L 71-81 19%    
  Feb 09, 2022 291   @ Bucknell L 73-78 32%    
  Feb 12, 2022 144   @ Boston University L 62-76 11%    
  Feb 16, 2022 101   Navy L 62-72 18%    
  Feb 19, 2022 249   Army L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 23, 2022 313   @ Lehigh L 70-73 38%    
  Feb 26, 2022 287   Loyola Maryland W 70-69 53%    
Projected Record 10 - 21 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 4.2 4.2 1.8 0.2 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 5.3 4.8 2.2 0.2 14.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 6.3 6.2 1.5 0.2 15.8 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 7.3 6.7 1.6 0.1 18.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 4.0 6.7 5.3 1.2 0.0 18.1 9th
10th 0.3 1.4 2.8 3.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 10.8 10th
Total 0.3 1.5 3.5 8.0 11.0 14.5 15.8 13.9 10.9 8.8 5.7 3.4 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 78.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 48.8% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 17.2% 0.1    0.1 0.1
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 38.5% 38.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 12.4% 12.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.7% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.1 0.7
12-6 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 1.5
11-7 3.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 3.3
10-8 5.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 5.6
9-9 8.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 8.7
8-10 10.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.8
7-11 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.8
6-12 15.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.8
5-13 14.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.5
4-14 11.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.0
3-15 8.0% 8.0
2-16 3.5% 3.5
1-17 1.5% 1.5
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%