American
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -4.7 #244
Expected Predictive Rating -3.8 #223
Pace 68.3 #198
Improvement -2.5 #287

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #267 C D- C D+ B-
Defense #209 C- C C+ D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #203 1.13 #211 -1.1 #223
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #309 0.73 #211 -2.5 #299
Three Pointers 48% #41 1.00 #202 +3.3 #72
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #186 -0.3 #188
Freethrows 0.26 #317 77% #36 0.20 #257
Second Chance 24.8% #329 0.91 #319 0.23 #342
Turnovers 17.0% #198
Total Offense -3.6 #267

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #73 1.25 #292 -4.4 #319
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #159 0.75 #156 -0.2 #200
Three Pointers 36% #312 1.03 #207 +2.3 #94
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #255 -2.2 #255
Freethrows 0.37 #342 72% #167 0.27 #335
Second Chance 32.1% #250 0.96 #89 0.31 #162
Turnovers 18.0% #98
Total Defense -1.1 #209

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #85 0.5% #207
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.0% #210 3.8% #256
Possession Length 17.9 #245 16.4 #49
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #151 0.17 #189
Improvement -2.8 #326 +0.4 #171

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.4% 17.3% 13.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 86.9% 91.7% 70.5%
.500 or above in Conference 95.1% 97.7% 86.4%
Conference Champion 4.8% 5.9% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four4.9% 4.9% 5.2%
First Round14.0% 15.0% 10.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 77.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 21 - 7
Quad 416 - 717 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 75 @Wake Forest L 74 - 88 8% -9  0 - 1 -3 +1 C C+ D- -3 B F+ C
 Sun, Nov 9 180 Penn W 84 - 78 49% +3  1 - 1 +2 +1 B- D D+ +0 C B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 80 @George Washington L 67 - 107 9% -20  1 - 2 -30 -8 C F D- -19 F F C
 Tue, Nov 18 113 @Rutgers L 71 - 80 15% -1  1 - 3 -3 +0 D- D- A+ -3 C F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 346 Maine W 74 - 61 83% +12  2 - 3 -2 +2 B- F A+ -3 F C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 178 Siena L 55 - 59 49% -1  2 - 4 -8 -20 F D- F +12 B A A+
 Sun, Nov 30 266 Longwood W 92 - 66 66% +8  3 - 4 +17 +13 B- B- B- +3 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 205 Drexel W 75 - 73 54% -1  4 - 4 -4 +6 B F A+ -9 F A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 338 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 60 82% +10  5 - 4 +4 +10 A F+ B- -4 F A+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 83 - 105 6% -12  5 - 5 -9 +14 B D+ A -23 D- F C
 Mon, Dec 22 23 @Virginia L 51 - 95 2% -22  5 - 6 -25 -9 D- C- C+ -20 F F C-
 Wed, Dec 31 318 Loyola Maryland W 84 - 69 77% +10  6 - 6 1 - 0 +2 +7 A F C+ -4 F+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 289 @Boston University W 64 - 62 49% +5  7 - 6 2 - 0 -2 -2 C F C- +0 A+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 222 @Colgate L 62 - 64 34% +5  7 - 7 2 - 1 -2 -1 A- F D- -2 B- D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 323 Holy Cross L 73 - 84 78% -3  7 - 8 2 - 2 -24 -7 F C- C -17 F D+ D-
 Mon, Jan 12 177 Navy W 65 - 51 48% +11  8 - 8 3 - 2 +10 +0 C- F A+ +11 A+ A+ B+
 Sun, Jan 18 336 @Army W 78 - 67 63% +7  9 - 8 4 - 2 +3 +8 C+ A+ F -4 D C C-
 Wed, Jan 21 222 Colgate W 70 - 66 57% +1  10 - 8 5 - 2 -2 -4 D+ A+ F +2 B- B B
 Sat, Jan 24 323 @Holy Cross W 76 - 67 59% +8  11 - 8 6 - 2 +2 +6 C D A- -4 F B A-
 Wed, Jan 28 318 @Loyola Maryland L 68 - 77 57% -8  11 - 9 6 - 3 -16 -13 D- F D+ -2 A- D- D
 Sat, Jan 31 310 Lafayette L 65 - 67 75% +1  11 - 10 6 - 4 -14 -7 D- D+ D- -8 F A- C
 Wed, Feb 4 316 Bucknell W 75 - 67 78%
 Sat, Feb 7 177 @Navy L 65 - 71 27%
 Wed, Feb 11 302 @Lehigh W 71 - 70 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 336 Army W 78 - 69 81%
 Wed, Feb 18 316 @Bucknell W 72 - 70 57%
 Sun, Feb 22 310 @Lafayette W 72 - 71 54%
 Wed, Feb 25 302 Lehigh W 73 - 67 73%
 Sat, Feb 28 289 Boston University W 74 - 68 70%
Totals 16 - 13 11 - 7 -5 -4 C D- C -1 C- C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.5 1.5 4.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 8.7 14.4 7.3 0.7 32.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.9 12.7 16.7 7.7 0.9 39.9 3rd
4th 0.5 6.0 6.7 1.4 0.1 14.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 2.8 0.3 0.0 4.7 5th
6th 0.2 1.5 0.3 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 4.0 11.1 21.5 26.9 22.9 10.6 2.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 67.8% 1.5    0.6 0.8 0.1
13-5 23.2% 2.5    0.6 1.3 0.6
12-6 3.3% 0.8    0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 1.2 2.4 1.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.2% 26.1% 26.1% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 1.6
13-5 10.6% 23.1% 23.1% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.8 8.2
12-6 22.9% 20.1% 20.1% 15.6 0.1 1.7 2.8 18.3
11-7 26.9% 16.8% 16.8% 15.8 0.0 0.7 3.8 22.4
10-8 21.5% 12.7% 12.7% 15.9 0.3 2.5 18.7
9-9 11.1% 11.1% 11.1% 16.0 0.0 1.2 9.8
8-10 4.0% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.3 3.8
7-11 0.8% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.4% 16.4% 0.0% 15.6 83.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 14.3 8.7 53.9 37.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%