Bucknell
Patriot League
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.8#327
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#280
Pace67.0#237
Improvement+0.6#131

Offense
Total Offense-6.9#341
First Shot-5.4#319
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#265
Layup/Dunks-7.2#356
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#45
Freethrows+1.0#116
Improvement+0.5#131

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#268
First Shot+1.8#112
After Offensive Rebounds-4.8#361
Layups/Dunks+5.6#24
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#172
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#326
Freethrows+0.5#157
Improvement+0.1#168
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 3.0% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 16.0 15.9
.500 or above 6.5% 18.6% 5.6%
.500 or above in Conference 33.8% 45.6% 32.9%
Conference Champion 1.6% 3.7% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 18.2% 10.3% 18.7%
First Four1.0% 2.1% 0.9%
First Round0.6% 2.1% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Princeton (Home) - 6.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 9
Quad 410 - 1111 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 172   Delaware L 57-78 27%     0 - 1 -24.3 -17.9 -6.4
  Nov 08, 2023 191   @ Penn L 61-80 15%     0 - 2 -17.6 -11.7 -6.4
  Nov 11, 2023 289   @ Niagara W 73-64 28%     1 - 2 +5.1 +5.6 +0.4
  Nov 14, 2023 204   @ La Salle L 57-69 16%     1 - 3 -11.1 -15.1 +3.4
  Nov 17, 2023 6   @ Duke L 60-90 1%     1 - 4 -9.1 -0.9 -9.2
  Nov 20, 2023 342   Southern Indiana W 67-56 68%     2 - 4 -3.8 -14.2 +10.2
  Nov 22, 2023 108   @ St. Bonaventure L 61-67 7%     2 - 5 +1.0 -3.7 +4.3
  Nov 25, 2023 243   @ Marist L 49-73 21%     2 - 6 -25.2 -15.1 -13.6
  Nov 29, 2023 60   Princeton L 59-75 7%    
  Dec 02, 2023 93   @ Penn St. L 62-80 4%    
  Dec 16, 2023 161   Radford L 61-68 26%    
  Dec 22, 2023 296   @ Merrimack L 60-66 31%    
  Dec 30, 2023 254   St. Peter's L 60-62 43%    
  Jan 03, 2024 335   Holy Cross W 69-65 65%    
  Jan 06, 2024 269   American L 66-67 45%    
  Jan 10, 2024 267   @ Lehigh L 67-74 25%    
  Jan 13, 2024 139   Colgate L 64-72 23%    
  Jan 17, 2024 307   @ Boston University L 62-67 33%    
  Jan 20, 2024 318   @ Lafayette L 62-66 34%    
  Jan 24, 2024 317   Navy W 64-62 56%    
  Jan 27, 2024 325   @ Army L 62-65 38%    
  Jan 31, 2024 306   Loyola Maryland W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 03, 2024 269   @ American L 63-70 26%    
  Feb 07, 2024 317   @ Navy L 61-65 36%    
  Feb 10, 2024 307   Boston University W 65-64 55%    
  Feb 12, 2024 267   Lehigh L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 17, 2024 139   @ Colgate L 61-75 11%    
  Feb 21, 2024 335   @ Holy Cross L 66-68 45%    
  Feb 24, 2024 325   Army W 65-62 61%    
  Feb 28, 2024 306   @ Loyola Maryland L 64-69 34%    
  Mar 02, 2024 318   Lafayette W 65-63 56%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.1 3.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.3 4.1 5.4 1.7 0.1 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.4 6.3 1.9 0.3 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.5 6.7 2.9 0.2 0.0 13.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.7 6.1 3.2 0.4 0.0 12.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.2 5.0 3.1 0.4 0.0 12.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.4 3.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 11.8 10th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.3 7.2 9.8 13.3 14.0 14.4 11.1 9.2 6.0 3.8 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 84.7% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-3 82.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1
14-4 43.9% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 20.3% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 3.6% 3.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.2% 25.2% 25.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 1.1% 4.1% 4.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.0
13-5 2.2% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 2.0
12-6 3.8% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.2 3.6
11-7 6.0% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.2 5.9
10-8 9.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 9.0
9-9 11.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 10.9
8-10 14.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 14.3
7-11 14.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.0
6-12 13.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.2
5-13 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.8
4-14 7.2% 7.2
3-15 4.3% 4.3
2-16 2.3% 2.3
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.1 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%