Bucknell
Patriot League
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.0#291
Expected Predictive Rating-9.1#299
Pace76.5#41
Improvement+0.4#147

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#258
First Shot+0.8#152
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#346
Layup/Dunks-2.5#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#168
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#111
Freethrows+1.1#102
Improvement-0.4#232

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#305
First Shot-4.1#299
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#196
Layups/Dunks-0.6#212
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#269
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#207
Freethrows-1.5#268
Improvement+0.8#100
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.1% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 10.1% 17.5% 6.0%
.500 or above in Conference 35.8% 43.0% 31.8%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.3% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 10.2% 7.6% 11.5%
First Four0.9% 1.0% 0.8%
First Round1.2% 1.9% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Away) - 35.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 410 - 1012 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 64   @ North Carolina St. L 70-88 6%     0 - 1 -7.5 -2.3 -4.4
  Nov 14, 2021 189   Penn L 68-73 39%     0 - 2 -9.3 -7.4 -1.9
  Nov 17, 2021 266   Rider W 81-74 57%     1 - 2 -1.9 -1.2 -1.2
  Nov 20, 2021 241   @ Illinois St. L 100-105 OT 28%     1 - 3 -6.1 +2.4 -7.4
  Nov 23, 2021 196   Mercer L 68-78 30%     1 - 4 -11.5 -8.2 -3.0
  Nov 24, 2021 266   Rider L 79-85 45%     1 - 5 -11.9 -1.4 -10.0
  Nov 28, 2021 275   Siena W 65-56 OT 58%     2 - 5 -0.2 -10.3 +10.4
  Dec 01, 2021 267   @ St. Francis (PA) L 75-79 35%    
  Dec 04, 2021 133   @ Hofstra L 72-84 13%    
  Dec 07, 2021 151   @ Princeton L 70-81 15%    
  Dec 18, 2021 244   La Salle W 74-73 51%    
  Dec 22, 2021 83   @ Richmond L 70-87 6%    
  Dec 29, 2021 298   @ Albany L 71-74 41%    
  Jan 01, 2022 144   @ Boston University L 67-79 14%    
  Jan 04, 2022 249   Army W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 07, 2022 101   @ Navy L 63-77 8%    
  Jan 10, 2022 287   @ Loyola Maryland L 71-74 38%    
  Jan 13, 2022 313   Lehigh W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 16, 2022 320   @ American L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 19, 2022 111   Colgate L 76-84 24%    
  Jan 22, 2022 343   @ Holy Cross W 77-74 62%    
  Jan 26, 2022 101   Navy L 66-74 22%    
  Jan 29, 2022 287   Loyola Maryland W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 02, 2022 111   @ Colgate L 73-87 11%    
  Feb 05, 2022 272   @ Lafayette L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 09, 2022 320   American W 78-73 68%    
  Feb 12, 2022 343   Holy Cross W 80-71 79%    
  Feb 14, 2022 313   @ Lehigh L 74-75 44%    
  Feb 19, 2022 272   Lafayette W 76-74 59%    
  Feb 23, 2022 249   @ Army L 73-78 31%    
  Feb 26, 2022 144   Boston University L 70-76 30%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.1 0.9 0.0 6.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.3 5.2 3.3 0.9 0.1 13.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 5.0 6.7 3.0 0.5 0.0 16.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 5.2 6.2 2.5 0.2 15.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 6.0 5.5 2.0 0.1 15.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.4 5.3 1.7 0.1 13.1 8th
9th 0.3 1.8 4.2 3.1 1.1 0.1 10.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.2 1.5 0.3 6.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.0 7.2 9.2 13.9 13.6 14.0 12.7 9.3 6.3 4.0 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 84.4% 0.2    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 33.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1
13-5 6.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 95.3% 95.3% 15.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 0.9% 16.0% 16.0% 15.6 0.1 0.1 0.7
13-5 2.2% 6.7% 6.7% 15.6 0.1 0.1 2.0
12-6 4.0% 5.9% 5.9% 15.8 0.0 0.2 3.8
11-7 6.3% 4.0% 4.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 6.1
10-8 9.3% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.3 9.0
9-9 12.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 12.5
8-10 14.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.9
7-11 13.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.6
6-12 13.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.8
5-13 9.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.2
4-14 7.2% 7.2
3-15 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.0
2-16 1.7% 1.7
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 15.8 0.3 1.3 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%