Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -10.5 325
Results Rating -10.6 326
Consistency 0.15 159
Pace 66.9 221
Improvement +0.5 165

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 317 D+ D- C D+ B-
Defense D 305 D+ D+ D C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 98 D+ 55% 264 +0.5 162
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 238 D- 31% 348 -2.8 314
Three Pointers 42% 151 D+ 31% 283 -0.9 215
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 84 D -3.8 309
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 280
Second Chance D 24.8% 326 D- 0.89 343 D- 0.22 349
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.8% 116
Other Turnovers C- 7.6% 234
Turnovers C 16.4% 152
Freethrows D+ 0.28 248 D 69% 285 D+ 0.20 269
Total Offense D -6.0 317

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 52% 122 C- 11.4% 206
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 204 F+ 9.0% 347
Three Pointers C 84% 198 F 2.2% 358
Total C+ 58% 114 D- 7.1% 327


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 145 D+ 62% 287 +2.3 256
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 74 C 38% 180 +1.3 293
Three Pointers 36% 311 D 37% 303 -0.9 138
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 113 D +2.9 295
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 269
Second Chance C- 31.2% 225 D 1.14 319 D+ 0.36 292
Turnovers from Steals D- 6.8% 342
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 144
Turnovers D 14.2% 323
Freethrows C+ 0.29 127 D 74% 295 C+ 0.21 144
Total Defense D -4.5 305

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 57% 330 D 7.0% 329
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 35% 322 D+ 3.0% 290
Three Pointers C- 86% 254 F+ -0.2% 363
Total D+ 61% 297 D- 3.4% 338

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 258 17.0 118
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 332 0.19 238
Consistency 0.12 182 0.14 286
Improvement -0.6 211 +1.1 138

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 325 325 324
Results Rating Rank 327 326 325
Conference Record 8 - 10 8 - 10 8 - 10
Conference Finish 6 6 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 9
Quad 49 - 1210 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 110 @Saint Joseph's L 76 - 85 6% -6  5% 0 - 1 C- -2 B +7 C+ B+ B F+ -9 B F F
 Sat, Nov 8 33 @Texas L 60 - 97 1% -18  0% 0 - 2 F -20 F -10 F+ B F F -10 C+ F D+
 Thu, Nov 13 154 Cornell L 78 - 97 22% -7  31% 0 - 3 F -22 F -11 F D+ B F+ -10 C F D-
 Mon, Nov 17 51 @West Virginia L 59 - 81 2% -11  0% 0 - 4 D+ -8 D+ -3 B D+ F D -6 D- D- C-
 Fri, Nov 21 331 @Stonehill L 70 - 74 41% -4  20% 0 - 5 D- -12 D -5 D- D- F D- -7 F B- B-
 Fri, Nov 28 302 Le Moyne L 63 - 76 54% -1  32% 0 - 6 F -25 F -16 F F+ F F+ -9 C+ F D
 Sat, Nov 29 280 Ball St. W 55 - 37 48% +4  62% 1 - 6 B- +8 F -15 F C- A A+ +25 A+ A B-
 Sun, Nov 30 174 Monmouth L 74 - 88 26% -13  6% 1 - 7 F+ -18 C- -2 C- D- B F -16 F A+ D
 Fri, Dec 5 290 Mercyhurst W 79 - 71 50% +2  71% 2 - 7 C- -2 B+ +8 A+ B F F+ -10 B+ F F
 Mon, Dec 8 149 @Penn L 72 - 74 10% -6  2% 2 - 8 C +2 C- -2 B F D+ B- +3 B- B F+
 Thu, Dec 18 178 @Charlotte L 67 - 81 13% -11  4% 2 - 9 D- -12 C+ +2 C C+ C- F -17 F D+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 137 @Georgia Tech L 81 - 95 9% -7  2% 2 - 10 D -10 B+ +8 A- F A F -17 D F F
 Wed, Dec 31 253 Colgate L 77 - 85 41% -1  26% 2 - 11 0 - 1 F+ -16 D- -7 D C D F+ -8 F+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 319 @Loyola Maryland W 79 - 64 36% +15  99% 3 - 11 1 - 1 B +8 B- +5 C- A+ B B +4 B- A- D-
 Wed, Jan 7 247 Boston University L 67 - 83 40% -10  0% 3 - 12 1 - 2 F -24 F -12 D- F A F -13 F+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 156 @Navy L 50 - 76 10% -20  0% 3 - 13 1 - 3 F -23 F -20 F F F+ D+ -4 F C D-
 Wed, Jan 14 330 @Bucknell L 69 - 76 41% -1  30% 3 - 14 1 - 4 F+ -15 D -4 D+ D- C+ F -11 F F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 328 Holy Cross W 74 - 55 63% +12  96% 4 - 14 2 - 4 B- +5 D+ -3 D- C A+ A +9 A C+ C+
 Wed, Jan 21 247 @Boston University L 73 - 77 OT 21% +2  66% 4 - 15 2 - 5 D+ -6 F+ -9 D- F C+ B- +3 C C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 24 294 @Lehigh L 59 - 64 29% -7  14% 4 - 16 2 - 6 D -10 F -14 F F+ B- B +4 B+ F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 330 Bucknell W 81 - 79 64% -4  8% 5 - 16 3 - 6 D- -12 B +6 C C+ A+ F -18 D- F F
 Sat, Jan 31 251 @American W 67 - 65 21% -1  34% 6 - 16 4 - 6 C -0 C- -2 C F C+ B- +2 B F+ C+
 Wed, Feb 4 156 Navy L 50 - 65 23% -4  11% 6 - 17 4 - 7 F+ -18 F -20 D+ F D- C+ +1 B B F+
 Sat, Feb 7 340 @Army W 63 - 60 46% +4  78% 7 - 17 5 - 7 D+ -6 F -15 F F+ F A- +8 B C B-
 Wed, Feb 11 319 Loyola Maryland L 54 - 68 59% -9  1% 7 - 18 5 - 8 F -27 F -25 F F A+ C- -2 D- A D+
 Sat, Feb 14 294 Lehigh L 69 - 78 50% -0  60% 7 - 19 5 - 9 F -20 D -5 B- F F F -15 F B F
 Wed, Feb 18 328 @Holy Cross W 86 - 83 40% -8  6% 8 - 19 6 - 9 C- -5 B- +5 A- A+ F F -10 F B D
 Sun, Feb 22 251 American L 61 - 75 41% -5  13% 8 - 20 6 - 10 F -22 D- -7 D F+ A+ F -18 F F F
 Wed, Feb 25 253 @Colgate W 70 - 69 22% +3  80% 9 - 20 7 - 10 C -1 C +1 D+ D A+ C- -2 C- A- F
 Sat, Feb 28 340 Army W 83 - 77 68% +6  96% 10 - 20 8 - 10 D -9 D+ -3 C F C+ D- -7 F C+ B
 Tue, Mar 3 328 Holy Cross L 77 - 82 63% -1  35% 10 - 21 F -19 D+ -2 B F B- F -17 C- F F
Totals 10 - 21 8 - 10 -11 D -6 C D B- D -5 D+ D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ D- D+ D 42% 32% 42% B- D+ D D- D- C D+ D D+ D D+ C D D 40% 24% 36% C+ D+ C- D D+ D C+ D C+
1.00 55% 31% 31% -4 +1 0.96 25% 0.9 .22 16% .28 69% .20 1.15 62% 38% 37% +3 0 1.07 31% 1.1 .36 14% .29 74% .21
Nov
3		 Saint Joseph's B C- B- D C 44% 19% 37% A- C+ C+ A+ B+ B A+ F B+ F+ B- F+ A+ B 45% 16% 39% C B F F F F F+ F F
1.08 54% 40% 30% -4 +1 0.96 31% 1.3 .38 13% .37 52% .19 1.20 56% 44% 23% -7 +1 0.91 40% 1.4 .54 10% .35 86% .30
Nov
8		 Texas F F D+ F+ F+ 38% 26% 36% C+ F+ B- B+ B F C- F D F D+ D C+ C+ 38% 21% 40% C+ C+ F F F D+ F C F
0.87 44% 33% 29% -9 -1 0.83 27% 1.1 .30 22% .32 65% .20 1.41 65% 45% 33% +4 0 1.10 52% 1.7 .87 13% .48 76% .37
Nov
13		 Cornell F F+ F+ C- F 51% 23% 26% C- F F A+ D+ B A- F+ B- F+ F A+ C- C 37% 3% 60% D+ C C F F D- B- B B-
1.04 52% 31% 33% -5 +1 0.93 21% 1.3 .29 12% .39 65% .26 1.29 73% 0% 36% +6 +2 1.18 31% 1.5 .47 15% .26 71% .19
Nov
17		 West Virginia D+ F A+ A+ C+ 51% 4% 44% A+ B D- C+ D+ F C B C D B+ D F D- 45% 19% 36% C+ D- F+ C D- C- D- C+ D+
0.88 35% 50% 45% -4 +3 1.00 20% 1.0 .20 28% .25 75% .19 1.21 52% 44% 47% +6 +1 1.15 39% 1.1 .42 15% .37 67% .25
Nov
21		 Stonehill D F F C+ F+ 54% 17% 29% B+ D- A F D- F A+ D- A+ D- F F+ D F 45% 22% 33% C- F F A+ B- B- F+ A+ D+
0.98 46% 25% 36% -8 +2 0.90 38% 0.6 .21 17% .49 66% .32 1.04 65% 45% 35% +5 0 1.14 34% 0.6 .20 21% .30 59% .18
Nov
28		 Le Moyne F D+ F C F 29% 20% 51% D+ F F+ D F+ F C- B- C F+ D- B A C 41% 29% 29% A- C+ F F F D C- D+ C-
0.91 53% 0% 35% -8 -1 0.84 23% 1.0 .23 19% .30 76% .23 1.10 67% 33% 27% -1 -1 0.98 35% 1.5 .55 17% .33 74% .25
Nov
29		 Ball St. F F F F F 43% 28% 30% C- F D- A C- A A A- A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 31% 18% 51% B- A+ D+ A+ A B- B B B
0.89 45% 15% 14% -21 -1 0.60 26% 1.2 .32 13% .37 85% .32 0.60 29% 38% 13% -25 0 0.51 28% 0.4 .12 18% .24 67% .16
Nov
30		 Monmouth C- C+ D- B+ C 29% 31% 40% F C- F C D- B A+ B+ A+ F F D- F F 38% 33% 29% B F A A A+ D F B F
1.05 60% 31% 38% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 17% .38 77% .29 1.25 72% 44% 57% +17 -2 1.33 23% 0.8 .18 16% .52 71% .37
Dec
5		 Mercyhurst B+ F F A+ A+ 43% 9% 48% B A+ B- B- B F D- A+ B F+ C+ B A B 29% 43% 28% A- B+ F F F F A C- A-
1.24 47% 25% 57% +11 +2 1.27 36% 1.1 .40 24% .33 94% .31 1.11 53% 36% 25% -6 -4 0.83 37% 1.6 .61 9% .14 75% .10
Dec
8		 Penn C- C+ F A+ B- 55% 13% 32% A- B F F F D+ D A+ C B- D- B+ A B- 46% 29% 25% D+ B- C A B F+ B- A- B
1.01 62% 14% 41% +2 +2 1.11 20% 0.5 .10 18% .22 77% .17 1.03 62% 31% 29% -2 0 0.96 31% 0.8 .24 13% .30 63% .19
Dec
18		 Charlotte C+ B+ F B+ C 29% 20% 51% C- C B D C+ C- F F F F B+ B F F 27% 13% 60% B F A F D+ F A+ F A+
1.13 67% 10% 38% 0 -1 1.02 35% 1.0 .35 15% .08 50% .04 1.37 54% 33% 55% +17 0 1.38 26% 1.3 .33 12% .17 89% .15
Dec
20		 Georgia Tech B+ B- A+ C+ A- 30% 13% 57% B A- D- F F A B B B+ F C+ A- F D- 39% 31% 30% B+ D F+ F F F F F F
1.14 59% 57% 34% +3 0 1.09 23% 0.5 .11 11% .33 76% .25 1.34 57% 29% 56% +7 -1 1.13 38% 1.5 .56 13% .48 87% .42
Dec
31		 Colgate D- D+ A+ F D- 45% 16% 39% B- D F A+ C D A+ D A+ F+ F+ F D+ F+ 40% 23% 37% D+ F+ B A+ A+ F+ F C F
1.05 55% 50% 26% -4 +1 0.96 18% 1.8 .32 16% .46 68% .31 1.16 67% 50% 37% +8 0 1.17 23% 0.4 .09 12% .51 73% .37
Jan
3		 Loyola Maryland B- C A+ F+ D+ 49% 14% 37% B+ C- D+ A+ A+ B D F F B A- C- C+ B- 39% 15% 46% C B- B- A+ A- D- A- D+ B+
1.21 63% 57% 28% +1 +2 1.08 28% 2.0 .56 12% .26 53% .14 0.98 48% 38% 32% -6 +1 0.93 24% 0.8 .18 14% .20 73% .14
Jan
7		 Boston University F B A+ F F 52% 16% 32% B+ D- F F F A C- F F F B- F F F 38% 29% 33% A- F+ D- C+ D+ F C C- C
1.02 62% 56% 17% -4 +2 0.98 18% 0.7 .13 8% .26 50% .13 1.26 55% 53% 53% +12 -1 1.25 30% 1.0 .30 14% .26 73% .19
Jan
10		 Navy F C+ F D- F 27% 23% 50% C F F F F F+ A- F B- D+ F+ F D F 33% 26% 41% B- F A+ F C D- F A+ B-
0.75 62% 9% 29% -9 -1 0.81 19% 0.3 .05 21% .32 65% .21 1.14 67% 50% 37% +8 -1 1.15 21% 1.6 .32 15% .47 48% .23
Jan
14		 Bucknell D D+ F A D 33% 17% 50% B- D+ F A+ D- C+ F B- F+ F C B F F 45% 16% 39% D F C- F F B+ C- F D
1.05 56% 13% 42% +1 0 1.04 21% 1.3 .26 17% .24 77% .18 1.15 55% 29% 47% +5 +1 1.14 27% 2.0 .54 23% .27 86% .24
Jan
17		 Holy Cross D+ F D B+ F+ 54% 21% 25% B- D- A- F C A+ A+ F A- A C B A+ A- 23% 35% 42% A A B D+ C+ C+ F A D-
1.14 50% 36% 38% -3 +1 0.98 38% 0.9 .35 8% .40 63% .25 0.85 55% 35% 25% -7 -3 0.81 17% 1.0 .17 17% .37 70% .26
Jan
21		 Boston University F+ C- F D+ F 44% 13% 44% B D- D F F C+ F B+ F B- C- F C C+ 44% 8% 48% F C B D C+ B- C- A+ B-
1.02 56% 25% 33% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.5 .12 11% .14 78% .11 1.08 61% 50% 36% +4 +2 1.13 22% 1.1 .25 20% .28 63% .17
Jan
24		 Lehigh F D D+ F F 43% 16% 41% B- F D F F+ B- B- F C- B A A+ F A- 48% 20% 33% F+ B+ F F F A+ C+ F D-
0.90 52% 38% 20% -11 +1 0.82 29% 0.8 .24 14% .34 63% .21 0.98 45% 11% 47% -5 +1 0.93 29% 1.1 .32 24% .26 92% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Bucknell B A+ D+ D C 32% 18% 50% C+ C C C+ C+ A+ A+ C A+ F F F+ D F 20% 42% 38% A+ D- F+ F F F F C F
1.24 79% 38% 32% +5 0 1.11 34% 1.1 .38 12% .54 74% .40 1.21 67% 42% 35% +4 -4 1.02 32% 1.3 .42 15% .58 75% .43
Jan
31		 American C- C A C C 38% 13% 49% B- C B F F C+ C F F+ B- F A A+ B- 33% 23% 44% A- B F C F+ C+ D+ C+ C-
1.05 61% 50% 35% +3 +1 1.11 35% 0.4 .15 17% .36 58% .21 1.02 75% 27% 24% -4 -1 0.94 35% 0.9 .32 17% .29 73% .21
Feb
4		 Navy F B- A+ F D- 36% 6% 57% A+ D+ F F F D- F A+ F C+ D D- A+ B- 41% 39% 20% A B B B- B F+ A+ D A
0.79 65% 67% 22% -6 +2 0.94 18% 0.0 .00 20% .12 100% .12 1.02 62% 45% 10% -3 -2 0.92 26% 1.0 .26 14% .24 77% .18
Feb
7		 Army F F+ D F+ F 45% 19% 36% C+ F C+ F F+ F A+ F B A- C B+ A+ A- 43% 7% 50% D- B F A C B- A F B+
0.94 52% 33% 29% -6 +1 0.91 33% 0.8 .25 19% .48 62% .29 0.89 57% 25% 22% -10 +2 0.85 36% 0.7 .26 19% .17 78% .13
Feb
11		 Loyola Maryland F C A F F 35% 11% 54% B F D F F A+ F+ F F C- D+ D C- D- 37% 9% 54% D+ D- A+ A A D+ A+ D A
0.82 63% 50% 14% -13 +1 0.78 27% 0.5 .14 6% .24 40% .10 1.04 60% 40% 34% +1 +1 1.07 18% 0.8 .15 15% .14 75% .11
Feb
14		 Lehigh D A+ C+ F B- 46% 15% 39% B B- F F F F A- C B+ F F D- F F 35% 38% 27% A+ F D A+ B F B B B+
1.07 71% 43% 28% +3 +1 1.11 24% 0.6 .14 20% .37 74% .27 1.21 72% 45% 50% +14 -3 1.25 25% 0.6 .14 12% .23 69% .16
Feb
18		 Holy Cross B- C+ A A+ A- 47% 24% 29% C A- D+ A+ A+ F A D B+ F F F F F 56% 15% 29% F F A D+ B D F C F
1.20 63% 50% 47% +10 0 1.24 26% 2.0 .52 18% .34 70% .24 1.16 69% 50% 40% +10 +2 1.27 13% 1.0 .13 14% .36 77% .28
Feb
22		 American D- C+ A F F+ 60% 13% 27% A D F A- F+ A+ D- D+ F+ F C- A+ F F 35% 21% 44% B+ F C F F F B+ B- B+
1.04 63% 50% 17% -2 +3 1.02 17% 1.2 .21 12% .31 69% .21 1.27 59% 20% 52% +9 0 1.19 26% 1.4 .37 12% .21 73% .15
Feb
25		 Colgate C C- F D D- 58% 6% 37% A+ D+ C F D A+ D- F F C- D+ B F+ C- 44% 27% 29% C- C- A A- A- F B- D- C+
1.12 57% 0% 32% -4 +3 1.00 30% 0.8 .25 8% .26 60% .16 1.11 61% 36% 40% +3 0 1.08 19% 0.8 .16 8% .24 79% .19
Feb
28		 Army D+ A F+ D C 44% 19% 37% C+ C F+ F F C+ A+ B+ A+ D- F A+ D F 38% 11% 51% C- F A F C+ B C+ F C-
1.15 74% 30% 32% +4 +1 1.12 23% 0.9 .20 14% .46 79% .37 1.06 71% 0% 36% +2 +1 1.09 22% 1.1 .25 21% .23 85% .19
Mar
3		 Holy Cross D+ D C A+ B 42% 19% 40% C B F A+ F B- B A+ A- F D+ F A D+ 23% 36% 42% A C- D- F F F D+ F F
1.14 55% 40% 48% +7 0 1.17 7% 1.5 .11 12% .30 83% .25 1.21 58% 53% 27% +1 -3 0.98 25% 1.8 .44 10% .30 100% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 100.0% 100.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%