Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.9#324
Expected Predictive Rating-12.0#325
Pace67.0#256
Improvement-0.8#292

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#299
First Shot-3.2#269
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#223
Layup/Dunks+1.2#141
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#110
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#310
Freethrows-0.9#226
Improvement-1.1#327

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#331
First Shot+0.0#172
After Offensive Rebounds-4.6#347
Layups/Dunks-3.7#300
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#247
Freethrows+4.9#9
Improvement+0.3#134
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 8.9% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 14.8% 40.3% 14.2%
.500 or above in Conference 36.4% 57.4% 35.9%
Conference Champion 3.9% 10.9% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 19.2% 7.4% 19.5%
First Four2.9% 3.5% 2.9%
First Round2.9% 6.9% 2.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Virginia (Away) - 2.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 9
Quad 410 - 1111 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 140 @Saint Joseph's L 76-85 13%     0 - 1 -5.5 +5.5 -10.9
  Sat, Nov 8 36 @Texas L 60-97 2%     0 - 2 -21.6 -3.9 -18.3
  Thu, Nov 13 154 Cornell L 78-97 30%     0 - 3 -22.4 -5.0 -16.1
  Mon, Nov 17 65 @West Virginia L 56-77 2%    
  Fri, Nov 21 332 @Stonehill L 67-69 42%    
  Fri, Nov 28 336 Le Moyne W 76-72 65%    
  Sat, Nov 29 253 Ball St. L 70-71 46%    
  Sun, Nov 30 232 Monmouth L 69-71 43%    
  Fri, Dec 5 328 Mercyhurst W 68-65 61%    
  Mon, Dec 8 296 @Penn L 72-77 33%    
  Thu, Dec 18 179 @Charlotte L 65-75 18%    
  Sat, Dec 20 91 @Georgia Tech L 61-78 6%    
  Wed, Dec 31 203 Colgate L 71-74 39%    
  Sat, Jan 3 294 @Loyola Maryland L 68-73 34%    
  Wed, Jan 7 258 Boston University L 69-70 48%    
  Sat, Jan 10 185 @Navy L 66-76 19%    
  Wed, Jan 14 257 @Bucknell L 67-74 28%    
  Sat, Jan 17 316 Holy Cross W 72-70 59%    
  Wed, Jan 21 258 @Boston University L 66-73 28%    
  Sat, Jan 24 291 @Lehigh L 67-72 33%    
  Mon, Jan 26 257 Bucknell L 70-71 48%    
  Sat, Jan 31 301 @American L 71-75 35%    
  Wed, Feb 4 185 Navy L 69-73 37%    
  Sat, Feb 7 350 @Army L 71-72 50%    
  Wed, Feb 11 294 Loyola Maryland W 71-70 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 291 Lehigh W 70-69 53%    
  Wed, Feb 18 316 @Holy Cross L 69-73 38%    
  Sat, Feb 21 301 American W 74-72 55%    
  Wed, Feb 25 203 @Colgate L 68-77 21%    
  Sat, Feb 28 350 Army W 75-69 69%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.5 2.9 0.2 0.0 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.9 3.2 0.4 12.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 3.0 5.7 3.4 0.5 0.0 13.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.9 5.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 14.0 9th
10th 0.3 1.1 2.5 3.8 3.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 12.5 10th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.8 5.4 7.7 9.9 11.9 12.6 12.0 10.9 8.9 6.6 4.5 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.0
15-3 90.3% 0.7    0.6 0.1
14-4 70.5% 1.1    0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 39.7% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 13.1% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 54.3% 54.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 37.6% 37.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.8% 27.4% 27.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6
14-4 1.5% 24.5% 24.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1
13-5 2.7% 17.7% 17.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.2
12-6 4.5% 11.7% 11.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 4.0
11-7 6.6% 10.3% 10.3% 15.9 0.1 0.6 6.0
10-8 8.9% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6 8.2
9-9 10.9% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 10.4
8-10 12.0% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.4 11.6
7-11 12.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 12.4
6-12 11.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 11.7
5-13 9.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 9.9
4-14 7.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.7
3-15 5.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.4
2-16 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.7 95.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%