Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.4 #328
Expected Predictive Rating -13.5 #342
Pace 67.9 #223
Improvement -0.6 #227

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #316 D D- C D+ B-
Defense #318 D D F B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #116 1.06 #294 -0.7 #207
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #250 0.56 #355 -2.9 #316
Three Pointers 42% #160 0.97 #238 -0.4 #198
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #288 -4.0 #287
Freethrows 16.4 #239 70% #263 11.5 #246
Second Chance 23.8% #338 1.05 #169 0.25 #312
Turnovers 17.0% #214
Total Offense -5.6 #316

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #154 1.19 #228 -1.4 #231
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #83 0.81 #268 -1.9 #317
Three Pointers 37% #294 1.14 #334 -0.1 #182
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #286 -3.4 #288
Freethrows 14.9 #63 81% #364 12.0 #298
Second Chance 31.8% #235 1.18 #321 0.38 #301
Turnovers 13.3% #342
Total Defense -4.8 #318

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #102 -0.6% #113
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.1% #320 7.2% #311
Possession Length 17.9 #230 16.7 #87
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #357 0.19 #242
Improvement -0.5 #216 -0.1 #192

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.4% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 14.2% 21.1% 5.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 29.9% 20.3% 41.7%
First Four1.9% 2.4% 1.3%
First Round0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Home) - 55.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 9
Quad 49 - 149 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 165 @Saint Joseph's L 76 - 85 12% -6  0 - 1 -7 +6 C- B B -13 C F F
 Sat, Nov 8 38 @Texas L 60 - 97 1% -18  0 - 2 -20 -7 F B+ F -14 C F D+
 Thu, Nov 13 194 Cornell L 78 - 97 30% -7  0 - 3 -24 -9 F F B+ -14 C F F
 Mon, Nov 17 57 @West Virginia L 59 - 81 3% -11  0 - 4 -10 -4 B D- F -6 D D- C
 Fri, Nov 21 344 @Stonehill L 70 - 74 43% -4  0 - 5 -13 -6 F F F -7 F B C
 Fri, Nov 28 291 Le Moyne L 63 - 76 51% -1  0 - 6 -24 -15 F F F -9 C F D+
 Sat, Nov 29 305 Ball St. W 55 - 37 54% +4  1 - 6 +7 -16 F D A+ +25 A+ A+ B-
 Sun, Nov 30 210 Monmouth L 74 - 88 34% -13  1 - 7 -20 -1 C- D C+ -19 F A+ D
 Fri, Dec 5 311 Mercyhurst W 79 - 71 55% +2  2 - 7 -4 +10 A+ B- F -13 B F F
 Mon, Dec 8 203 @Penn L 72 - 74 16% -6  2 - 8 -2 -4 C+ F F +2 B- A+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 174 @Charlotte L 67 - 81 13% -11  2 - 9 -12 +5 C- C+ C -20 F C F
 Sat, Dec 20 119 @Georgia Tech L 81 - 95 7% -7  2 - 10 -8 +11 A+ F A+ -20 D F F
 Wed, Dec 31 208 Colgate L 77 - 85 33% -1  2 - 11 0 - 1 -14 -4 D C+ F -10 D- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 336 @Loyola Maryland W 79 - 64 41% +15  3 - 11 1 - 1 +7 +6 D+ A+ B+ +2 B- A F
 Wed, Jan 7 268 Boston University L 67 - 83 44% -10  3 - 12 1 - 2 -25 -11 F F A+ -15 F C F
 Sat, Jan 10 198 @Navy L 50 - 76 15% -20  3 - 13 1 - 3 -25 -18 F F F -9 F C F
 Wed, Jan 14 312 @Bucknell L 69 - 76 34% +6  3 - 14 1 - 4 -13 +1 D- D- C -14 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 310 Holy Cross W 71 - 70 55%
 Wed, Jan 21 268 @Boston University L 69 - 77 24%
 Sat, Jan 24 308 @Lehigh L 69 - 74 33%
 Mon, Jan 26 312 Bucknell W 71 - 69 56%
 Sat, Jan 31 242 @American L 67 - 76 20%
 Wed, Feb 4 198 Navy L 67 - 72 32%
 Sat, Feb 7 332 @Army L 73 - 76 40%
 Wed, Feb 11 336 Loyola Maryland W 77 - 73 62%
 Sat, Feb 14 308 Lehigh W 72 - 71 55%
 Wed, Feb 18 310 @Holy Cross L 68 - 73 33%
 Sun, Feb 22 242 American L 70 - 73 39%
 Wed, Feb 25 208 @Colgate L 68 - 79 17%
 Sat, Feb 28 332 Army W 76 - 73 62%
Totals 8 - 22 6 - 12 -10 -6 D D- C -5 D D F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.3 2.3 1.8 0.3 4.7 4th
5th 0.3 2.8 3.9 0.7 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 6.0 1.7 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.3 2.9 8.0 3.6 0.2 0.0 15.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 4.0 9.6 5.5 0.7 0.0 20.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.3 8.3 6.1 0.6 20.2 9th
10th 0.3 1.9 5.0 6.6 4.0 0.7 0.0 18.4 10th
Total 0.3 1.9 5.8 11.2 16.6 19.5 17.1 13.4 8.3 4.0 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 72.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 18.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 1.6% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.1 1.4
10-8 4.0% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.2 3.8
9-9 8.3% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.4 7.9
8-10 13.4% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.3 13.1
7-11 17.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 16.7
6-12 19.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 19.3
5-13 16.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 16.4
4-14 11.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.2
3-15 5.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.7
2-16 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 16.0 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%