Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -10.4 323
Expected Predictive Rating -11.5 334
Pace 66.7 234
Improvement -0.1 195

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 339 D D- C D+ B-
Defense D+ 276 D+ D+ D C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 121 D+ 54% 271 +22.1 187
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 247 F+ 30% 354 +4.8 321
Three Pointers 43% 132 D 31% 301 +20.1 215
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.7 86 D- -4.7 324
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 307
Second Chance D 25.6% 312 F+ 0.87 350 D- 0.22 344
Turnovers C 16.8% 170
Freethrows D+ 0.28 252 D 69% 302 D+ 0.19 280
Total Offense D- -6.9 339

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 161 D+ 61% 263 +24.1 127
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 63 C 39% 211 +9.5 61
Three Pointers 36% 307 D+ 36% 275 +19.8 234
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.4 99 D+ +2.5 281
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.06 250
Second Chance C- 32.2% 253 D+ 1.10 292 D+ 0.36 294
Turnovers D 14.3% 326
Freethrows C+ 0.29 128 C- 73% 245 C+ 0.21 125
Total Defense D+ -3.4 276

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.0 253 17.0 138
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 345 0.19 247
Improvement -3.5 #333 +3.4 #33

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 2% 6% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 21% 5% 31%
First Four2% 2% 1%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Away) - 38.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 30 - 70 - 10
Quad 49 - 139 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 136 @Saint Joseph's L 76 - 85 9% -6  5% 0 - 1 C- -4 B- +5 C B B+ F+ -10 B- F F
 Sat, Nov 8 27 @Texas L 60 - 97 1% -18  0% 0 - 2 F -19 F+ -9 D- B F F+ -10 C+ F D+
 Thu, Nov 13 150 Cornell L 78 - 97 23% -7  31% 0 - 3 F -22 F -11 F D B F+ -9 C F D-
 Mon, Nov 17 52 @West Virginia L 59 - 81 2% -11  0% 0 - 4 D -8 D+ -4 B D+ F D+ -5 D- D+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 339 @Stonehill L 70 - 74 45% -4  20% 0 - 5 D- -13 D -6 D- D- F D- -8 F B- C-
 Fri, Nov 28 299 Le Moyne L 63 - 76 52% -1  32% 0 - 6 F -24 F -16 F F+ F D- -8 B- F D
 Sat, Nov 29 313 Ball St. W 55 - 37 57% +4  62% 1 - 6 B- +6 F -16 F D+ A+ A+ +25 A+ A- B-
 Sun, Nov 30 189 Monmouth L 74 - 88 30% -13  6% 1 - 7 F -19 D+ -3 D+ D- B F -16 F A+ D+
 Fri, Dec 5 298 Mercyhurst W 79 - 71 52% +2  71% 2 - 7 C- -3 B+ +8 A+ B F F+ -10 B F F
 Mon, Dec 8 175 @Penn L 72 - 74 13% -6  2% 2 - 8 C +0 D+ -3 B- F D B- +3 B- B+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 170 @Charlotte L 67 - 81 12% -11  4% 2 - 9 D- -12 C+ +3 C C+ C F -17 F C- F
 Sat, Dec 20 137 @Georgia Tech L 81 - 95 9% -7  2% 2 - 10 D -10 B+ +8 A- F A F -17 D F F
 Wed, Dec 31 217 Colgate L 77 - 85 34% -1  26% 2 - 11 0 - 1 D- -14 D -6 D C+ C- D- -8 D- A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 314 @Loyola Maryland W 79 - 64 34% +15  99% 3 - 11 1 - 1 B +9 B +6 C A+ B B- +4 B- B+ F+
 Wed, Jan 7 274 Boston University L 67 - 83 46% -10  0% 3 - 12 1 - 2 F -25 F -13 F+ F A F -14 F+ D F
 Sat, Jan 10 161 @Navy L 50 - 76 12% -20  0% 3 - 13 1 - 3 F -23 F -20 F F F+ D+ -5 F C F+
 Wed, Jan 14 325 @Bucknell L 69 - 76 39% -1  30% 3 - 14 1 - 4 F+ -14 D -4 D+ D- C+ F+ -11 F F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 321 Holy Cross W 74 - 55 60% +12  96% 4 - 14 2 - 4 B- +6 C- -2 D- C+ A+ A- +9 A B- C
 Wed, Jan 21 274 @Boston University L 73 - 77 OT 25% +2  66% 4 - 15 2 - 5 D+ -7 F+ -9 F+ F C+ C+ +2 C- C C+
 Sat, Jan 24 302 @Lehigh L 59 - 64 30% -7  14% 4 - 16 2 - 6 D -10 F -14 F F+ B B- +4 B F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 325 Bucknell W 81 - 79 62% -4  8% 5 - 16 3 - 6 D- -11 B +6 C C+ A F -17 D- F F
 Sat, Jan 31 257 @American W 67 - 65 23% -1  34% 6 - 16 4 - 6 C -1 D+ -2 C+ F C+ C+ +2 B F+ C
 Wed, Feb 4 161 Navy L 50 - 65 25% -4  11% 6 - 17 4 - 7 F -18 F -20 D+ F D- C +0 B- B F+
 Sat, Feb 7 340 @Army W 63 - 60 45% +4  78% 7 - 17 5 - 7 D+ -6 F -15 F F+ F A- +9 B C+ B-
 Wed, Feb 11 314 Loyola Maryland L 54 - 68 57% -9  1% 7 - 18 5 - 8 F -26 F -24 F F A+ C- -3 D- A D-
 Sat, Feb 14 302 Lehigh L 69 - 78 53% -0  60% 7 - 19 5 - 9 F -20 D -6 B- F F+ F -15 F B F
 Wed, Feb 18 321 @Holy Cross L 67 - 70 38%
 Sun, Feb 22 257 American L 70 - 72 43%
 Wed, Feb 25 217 @Colgate L 66 - 76 17%
 Sat, Feb 28 340 Army W 74 - 69 67%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 11 -10 F -7 B+ D- B- D+ -3 D D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- D+ F+ D D- 41% 31% 43% B- D D F+ D- C D+ D D+ D+ D+ C D+ D+ 39% 24% 36% C+ D+ C- D+ D+ D C+ C- C+
0.99 54% 30% 31% -5 +1 0.94 26% 0.9 .22 17% .28 69% .19 1.14 61% 39% 36% +3 0 1.06 32% 1.1 .36 14% .29 73% .21
Nov
3		 Saint Joseph's B- C- B- D C- 44% 19% 37% A- C C A B B+ A+ F B F+ C+ F A+ B 45% 16% 39% C- B- F F F F F+ F F
1.08 54% 40% 30% -4 +1 0.96 31% 1.3 .38 13% .37 52% .19 1.20 56% 44% 23% -6 +1 0.91 40% 1.4 .54 10% .35 86% .30
Nov
8		 Texas F+ F C- F+ F+ 38% 26% 36% C+ D- B- B+ B F D+ F+ D F+ C- D+ C C+ 38% 21% 40% C+ C+ F F F D+ F C F
0.87 44% 33% 29% -9 -1 0.83 27% 1.1 .30 22% .32 65% .20 1.41 65% 45% 33% +4 0 1.10 52% 1.7 .87 13% .48 76% .37
Nov
13		 Cornell F D- F+ D+ F 51% 23% 26% C F F A- D B B+ F+ C+ F+ F A+ C- C 37% 3% 60% D+ C C+ F F D- B- B- B-
1.04 52% 31% 33% -5 +1 0.93 21% 1.3 .29 12% .39 65% .26 1.29 73% 0% 36% +6 +2 1.18 31% 1.5 .47 15% .26 71% .19
Nov
17		 West Virginia D+ F A+ A+ C+ 51% 4% 44% A+ B D C D+ F C+ C+ C+ D+ B D F D- 45% 19% 36% C D- F+ B- D+ C- D C+ D+
0.88 35% 50% 45% -4 +3 1.00 20% 1.0 .20 28% .25 75% .19 1.21 52% 44% 47% +6 +1 1.15 39% 1.1 .42 15% .37 67% .25
Nov
21		 Stonehill D F F C+ F 54% 17% 29% B+ D- A F D- F A+ D- A+ D- F F+ D F 45% 22% 33% C F F A+ B- C- F+ A+ D+
0.98 46% 25% 36% -8 +2 0.90 38% 0.6 .21 17% .49 66% .32 1.04 65% 45% 35% +6 0 1.14 34% 0.6 .20 21% .30 59% .18
Nov
28		 Le Moyne F D+ F C F 29% 20% 51% D+ F F+ D+ F+ F C- B- C D- D- B- A C+ 41% 29% 29% A B- F F F D C D+ C-
0.91 53% 0% 35% -8 -1 0.84 23% 1.0 .23 19% .30 76% .23 1.10 67% 33% 27% -1 -1 0.98 35% 1.5 .55 17% .33 74% .25
Nov
29		 Ball St. F F F F F 43% 28% 30% C- F F+ A- D+ A+ A A- A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 31% 18% 51% C+ A+ D+ A+ A- B- B+ B A-
0.89 45% 15% 14% -21 -1 0.60 26% 1.2 .32 13% .37 85% .32 0.60 29% 38% 13% -25 0 0.51 28% 0.4 .12 18% .24 67% .16
Nov
30		 Monmouth D+ C+ D- B C 29% 31% 40% F D+ F B- D- B A B A+ F F D- F F 38% 33% 29% B+ F A A+ A+ D+ F B- F
1.05 60% 31% 38% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 17% .38 77% .29 1.25 72% 44% 57% +17 -2 1.33 23% 0.8 .18 16% .52 71% .37
Dec
5		 Mercyhurst B+ F F A+ A+ 43% 9% 48% B- A+ C+ B B F D A+ B+ F+ C+ B A B- 29% 43% 28% A B F F F F A- D+ B+
1.24 47% 25% 57% +11 +2 1.27 36% 1.1 .40 24% .33 94% .31 1.11 53% 36% 25% -6 -4 0.83 37% 1.6 .61 9% .14 75% .10
Dec
8		 Penn D+ C+ F A+ C+ 55% 13% 32% A- B- F F F D D+ A+ C B- D A- A B- 46% 29% 25% D+ B- C A B+ F B- A B
1.01 62% 14% 41% +3 +2 1.11 20% 0.5 .10 18% .22 77% .17 1.03 62% 31% 29% -2 0 0.96 31% 0.8 .24 13% .30 63% .19
Dec
18		 Charlotte C+ B+ F B+ C 29% 20% 51% C- C B D- C+ C F F F F B B- F F 27% 13% 60% B- F A F C- F A+ F A+
1.13 67% 10% 38% +1 -1 1.02 35% 1.0 .35 15% .08 50% .04 1.37 54% 33% 55% +18 0 1.38 26% 1.3 .33 12% .17 89% .15
Dec
20		 Georgia Tech B+ B- A+ C+ B+ 30% 13% 57% B A- D- F F A B B+ B+ F C+ B+ F D- 39% 31% 30% B+ D D- F F F F F F
1.14 59% 57% 34% +3 0 1.09 23% 0.5 .11 11% .33 76% .25 1.34 57% 29% 56% +7 -1 1.13 38% 1.5 .56 13% .48 87% .42
Dec
31		 Colgate D D+ A+ F D- 45% 16% 39% B D F A+ C+ C- A+ D A D- F+ F D+ D- 40% 23% 37% D+ D- B A+ A+ F+ F C- F
1.05 55% 50% 26% -4 +1 0.96 18% 1.8 .32 16% .46 68% .31 1.16 67% 50% 37% +8 0 1.17 23% 0.4 .09 12% .51 73% .37
Jan
3		 Loyola Maryland B C A+ F+ D+ 49% 14% 37% B+ C D A+ A+ B D+ F F B- A- C- C+ B- 39% 15% 46% C B- B A B+ F+ A- D+ B+
1.21 63% 57% 28% +2 +2 1.08 28% 2.0 .56 12% .26 53% .14 0.98 48% 38% 32% -5 +1 0.93 24% 0.8 .18 14% .20 73% .14
Jan
7		 Boston University F B- A+ F F 52% 16% 32% B+ F+ F F F A D+ F F F B- F F F 38% 29% 33% A- F+ D C- D F B- C- C+
1.02 62% 56% 17% -3 +2 0.98 18% 0.7 .13 8% .26 50% .13 1.26 55% 53% 53% +13 -1 1.25 30% 1.0 .30 14% .26 73% .19
Jan
10		 Navy F C+ F D F 27% 23% 50% C F F F F F+ A- F B- D+ F+ F D F 33% 26% 41% B F A+ F C F+ F A+ C+
0.75 62% 9% 29% -9 -1 0.81 19% 0.3 .05 21% .32 65% .21 1.14 67% 50% 37% +8 -1 1.15 21% 1.6 .32 15% .47 48% .23
Jan
14		 Bucknell D D+ F A D 33% 17% 50% C+ D+ F A D- C+ F B F+ F+ C B F F 45% 16% 39% D F C- F F B+ C F D+
1.05 56% 13% 42% +1 0 1.04 21% 1.3 .26 17% .24 77% .18 1.15 55% 29% 47% +5 +1 1.14 27% 2.0 .54 23% .27 86% .24
Jan
17		 Holy Cross C- F D A- F+ 54% 21% 25% C+ D- A- F+ C+ A+ A+ F A- A- C B A+ A- 23% 35% 42% A A B+ D+ B- C F B+ F+
1.14 50% 36% 38% -3 +1 0.98 38% 0.9 .35 8% .40 63% .25 0.85 55% 35% 25% -7 -3 0.81 17% 1.0 .17 17% .37 70% .26
Jan
21		 Boston University F+ C- F D+ F 44% 13% 44% B F+ D+ F F C+ F B+ F C+ C- F C- C 44% 8% 48% F C- B F+ C C+ C+ A+ B
1.02 56% 25% 33% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.5 .12 11% .14 78% .11 1.08 61% 50% 36% +4 +2 1.13 22% 1.1 .25 20% .28 63% .17
Jan
24		 Lehigh F D D+ F F 43% 16% 41% B F D F+ F+ B C+ F D+ B- A A+ F A- 48% 20% 33% F B F D- F A+ C+ F D-
0.90 52% 38% 20% -11 +1 0.82 29% 0.8 .24 14% .34 63% .21 0.98 45% 11% 47% -5 +1 0.93 29% 1.1 .32 24% .26 92% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Bucknell B A+ D+ D C 32% 18% 50% C C C C+ C+ A A+ C A+ F F F D F 20% 42% 38% A+ D- F F F F F C+ F
1.24 79% 38% 32% +5 0 1.11 34% 1.1 .38 12% .54 74% .40 1.21 67% 42% 35% +4 -4 1.02 32% 1.3 .42 15% .58 75% .43
Jan
31		 American D+ C+ A C C 38% 13% 49% B- C+ B- F F C+ D+ F F C+ F A A+ B- 33% 23% 44% A- B F C- F+ C D+ B- C-
1.05 61% 50% 35% +3 +1 1.11 35% 0.4 .15 17% .36 58% .21 1.02 75% 27% 24% -3 -1 0.94 35% 0.9 .32 17% .29 73% .21
Feb
4		 Navy F B A+ F D- 36% 6% 57% A+ D+ F F F D- F A+ F C D D- A+ C+ 41% 39% 20% A B- B B- B F+ A D A-
0.79 65% 67% 22% -6 +2 0.94 18% 0.0 .00 20% .12 100% .12 1.02 62% 45% 10% -3 -2 0.92 26% 1.0 .26 14% .24 77% .18
Feb
7		 Army F F+ D F+ F 45% 19% 36% C+ F C F F+ F A+ F B A- C- A- A+ A- 43% 7% 50% D B F+ A C+ B- A F B+
0.94 52% 33% 29% -6 +1 0.91 33% 0.8 .25 19% .48 62% .29 0.89 57% 25% 22% -10 +2 0.85 36% 0.7 .26 19% .17 78% .13
Feb
11		 Loyola Maryland F C+ A F F 35% 11% 54% B F D- F F A+ D- F F C- C- D+ D+ D- 37% 9% 54% D+ D- A+ B+ A D- A+ D- A
0.82 63% 50% 14% -13 +1 0.78 27% 0.5 .14 6% .24 40% .10 1.04 60% 40% 34% +1 +1 1.07 18% 0.8 .15 15% .14 75% .11
Feb
14		 Lehigh D A+ C+ F C+ 46% 15% 39% B+ B- F F F F+ B C B F F D- F F 35% 38% 27% A F D A+ B F B B- B
1.07 71% 43% 28% +3 +1 1.11 24% 0.6 .14 20% .37 74% .27 1.21 72% 45% 50% +14 -3 1.25 25% 0.6 .14 12% .23 69% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.3 0.3 3rd
4th 0.5 1.3 1.8 4th
5th 0.2 5.0 0.8 6.0 5th
6th 6.1 7.5 0.1 13.7 6th
7th 4.8 22.2 3.1 30.1 7th
8th 0.4 19.9 7.6 0.1 27.9 8th
9th 4.4 9.3 0.1 13.8 9th
10th 5.8 0.5 6.4 10th
Total 10.6 34.5 36.2 16.2 2.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 2.5% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.1 2.4
8-10 16.2% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.6 15.7
7-11 36.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.5 35.7
6-12 34.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.3 34.2
5-13 10.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.5
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 16.0 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%
Lose Out 5.8%