Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -10.4 322
Expected Predictive Rating -11.5 334
Pace 66.7 236
Improvement +0.0 193

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 339 D D- C D+ B-
Defense D+ 273 C- D+ D C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 118 D+ 54% 270 -0.2 183
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 248 F+ 30% 355 -3.1 323
Three Pointers 43% 132 D 31% 300 -0.8 215
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 82 D- -4.7 326
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 304
Second Chance D 25.5% 314 F+ 0.86 351 D- 0.22 346
Turnovers C 16.6% 165
Freethrows D+ 0.28 257 D 68% 304 D+ 0.19 287
Total Offense D- -7.0 339

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 164 D+ 61% 262 +1.6 235
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 63 C 39% 213 +1.7 309
Three Pointers 36% 307 D+ 36% 270 -1.2 129
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.4 98 D+ +2.4 273
1st FG Attempt C- 1.06 245
Second Chance C- 31.9% 237 D+ 1.10 293 D+ 0.35 284
Turnovers D 14.3% 327
Freethrows B- 0.28 115 D+ 74% 257 C+ 0.21 114
Total Defense D+ -3.4 273

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.9 245 16.9 119
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 345 0.19 242
Improvement -3.5 #331 +3.5 #34

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 3% 7% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 18% 3% 28%
First Four1% 2% 1%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Away) - 39.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 30 - 70 - 10
Quad 49 - 139 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 138 @Saint Joseph's L 76 - 85 9% -6  5% 0 - 1 C- -5 B- +5 C B B+ F -10 B- F F
 Sat, Nov 8 27 @Texas L 60 - 97 1% -18  0% 0 - 2 F -19 F+ -9 D- B F F -10 C+ F D+
 Thu, Nov 13 148 Cornell L 78 - 97 23% -7  31% 0 - 3 F -22 F -11 F D B+ F+ -9 C F D-
 Mon, Nov 17 53 @West Virginia L 59 - 81 2% -11  0% 0 - 4 D -8 D+ -4 B D+ F D -5 D- D+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 341 @Stonehill L 70 - 74 45% -4  20% 0 - 5 D- -13 D -5 D- D- F D- -8 F B- C-
 Fri, Nov 28 299 Le Moyne L 63 - 76 52% -1  32% 0 - 6 F -24 F -16 F F+ F D- -8 B- F D
 Sat, Nov 29 314 Ball St. W 55 - 37 57% +4  62% 1 - 6 B- +6 F -16 F D+ A+ A+ +25 A+ A- B-
 Sun, Nov 30 191 Monmouth L 74 - 88 30% -13  6% 1 - 7 F -19 D+ -3 D+ D- B F -16 F A+ D+
 Fri, Dec 5 297 Mercyhurst W 79 - 71 51% +2  71% 2 - 7 C- -3 B+ +8 A+ B F F -10 B F F
 Mon, Dec 8 175 @Penn L 72 - 74 12% -6  2% 2 - 8 C +0 D+ -3 B- F D B- +3 B- B+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 184 @Charlotte L 67 - 81 14% -11  4% 2 - 9 D- -13 C+ +2 C C C- F -17 F C- F
 Sat, Dec 20 139 @Georgia Tech L 81 - 95 9% -7  2% 2 - 10 D -10 B+ +8 A- F A F -17 D F F
 Wed, Dec 31 232 Colgate L 77 - 85 38% -1  26% 2 - 11 0 - 1 F+ -15 D- -6 D C+ D+ F+ -8 F+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 310 @Loyola Maryland W 79 - 64 33% +15  99% 3 - 11 1 - 1 B +9 B +6 C A+ B B +4 B- A- F+
 Wed, Jan 7 258 Boston University L 67 - 83 42% -10  0% 3 - 12 1 - 2 F -24 F -13 F+ F A F -13 F+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 163 @Navy L 50 - 76 12% -20  0% 3 - 13 1 - 3 F -23 F -20 F F F+ D -5 F C F+
 Wed, Jan 14 326 @Bucknell L 69 - 76 39% -1  30% 3 - 14 1 - 4 F+ -15 D -4 D+ D- C+ F -11 F F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 323 Holy Cross W 74 - 55 62% +12  96% 4 - 14 2 - 4 B- +6 D+ -2 D- C+ A+ A +9 A B- C+
 Wed, Jan 21 258 @Boston University L 73 - 77 OT 22% +2  66% 4 - 15 2 - 5 D+ -6 F+ -9 F+ F C+ B- +3 C- C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 24 302 @Lehigh L 59 - 64 31% -7  14% 4 - 16 2 - 6 D -10 F -14 F F+ B B +4 B F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 326 Bucknell W 81 - 79 62% -4  8% 5 - 16 3 - 6 D- -12 B +6 C C+ A F -17 D- F F
 Sat, Jan 31 260 @American W 67 - 65 23% -1  34% 6 - 16 4 - 6 C -1 D+ -2 C+ F C+ B- +2 B F+ C
 Wed, Feb 4 163 Navy L 50 - 65 25% -4  11% 6 - 17 4 - 7 F -18 F -20 D+ F D- C -0 B- B F
 Sat, Feb 7 340 @Army W 63 - 60 45% +4  78% 7 - 17 5 - 7 D+ -6 F -15 F F+ F A +9 B C+ B-
 Wed, Feb 11 310 Loyola Maryland L 54 - 68 55% -9  1% 7 - 18 5 - 8 F -26 F -24 F F A+ C- -3 D A D
 Sat, Feb 14 302 Lehigh L 69 - 78 53% -0  60% 7 - 19 5 - 9 F -20 D -6 B- F F+ F -15 F B+ F
 Wed, Feb 18 323 @Holy Cross L 68 - 71 39%
 Sun, Feb 22 260 American L 69 - 71 43%
 Wed, Feb 25 232 @Colgate L 67 - 76 19%
 Sat, Feb 28 340 Army W 74 - 69 67%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 11 -10 D- -7 B+ D- B- D+ -3 D D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- D+ F+ D D- 41% 31% 43% B- D D F+ D- C D+ D D+ D+ D+ C D+ D+ 39% 24% 36% B- C- C- D+ D+ D B- D+ C+
0.99 54% 30% 31% -5 +1 0.94 25% 0.9 .22 17% .28 68% .19 1.13 61% 39% 36% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.1 .35 14% .28 74% .21
Nov
3		 Saint Joseph's B- C- B- D C- 44% 19% 37% A- C C A B B+ A+ F B F C+ F A+ B 45% 16% 39% C- B- F F F F F+ F F
1.08 54% 40% 30% -4 +1 0.96 31% 1.3 .38 13% .37 52% .19 1.20 56% 44% 23% -6 +1 0.91 40% 1.4 .54 10% .35 86% .30
Nov
8		 Texas F+ F C- F+ F+ 38% 26% 36% C+ D- B- B+ B F D+ F+ D F C- D+ C C+ 38% 21% 40% C+ C+ F F F D+ F C F
0.87 44% 33% 29% -9 -1 0.83 27% 1.1 .30 22% .32 65% .20 1.41 65% 45% 33% +4 0 1.10 52% 1.7 .87 13% .48 76% .37
Nov
13		 Cornell F D- F+ D+ F 51% 23% 26% C F F A- D B+ B+ F+ C+ F+ F A+ C- C 37% 3% 60% D+ C C+ F F D- B- B- B-
1.04 52% 31% 33% -5 +1 0.93 21% 1.3 .29 12% .39 65% .26 1.29 73% 0% 36% +6 +2 1.18 31% 1.5 .47 15% .26 71% .19
Nov
17		 West Virginia D+ F A+ A+ C+ 51% 4% 44% A+ B D C D+ F C+ C+ C+ D B D F D- 45% 19% 36% C D- F+ B- D+ C- D C+ D+
0.88 35% 50% 45% -4 +3 1.00 20% 1.0 .20 28% .25 75% .19 1.21 52% 44% 47% +6 +1 1.15 39% 1.1 .42 15% .37 67% .25
Nov
21		 Stonehill D F F C+ F+ 54% 17% 29% B+ D- A F D- F A+ D- A+ D- F F+ D F 45% 22% 33% C F F A+ B- C- F+ A+ D+
0.98 46% 25% 36% -8 +2 0.90 38% 0.6 .21 17% .49 66% .32 1.04 65% 45% 35% +6 0 1.14 34% 0.6 .20 21% .30 59% .18
Nov
28		 Le Moyne F D+ F C F 29% 20% 51% D+ F F+ D+ F+ F C- B- C D- D- B- A C 41% 29% 29% A B- F F F D C D+ C-
0.91 53% 0% 35% -8 -1 0.84 23% 1.0 .23 19% .30 76% .23 1.10 67% 33% 27% -1 -1 0.98 35% 1.5 .55 17% .33 74% .25
Nov
29		 Ball St. F F F F F 43% 28% 30% C- F F+ B+ D+ A+ A A- A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 31% 18% 51% C+ A+ D+ A+ A- B- B+ B A-
0.89 45% 15% 14% -21 -1 0.60 26% 1.2 .32 13% .37 85% .32 0.60 29% 38% 13% -25 0 0.51 28% 0.4 .12 18% .24 67% .16
Nov
30		 Monmouth D+ C+ D- B C 29% 31% 40% F D+ F C+ D- B A B+ A+ F F D- F F 38% 33% 29% B+ F A+ A A+ D+ F B- F
1.05 60% 31% 38% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 17% .38 77% .29 1.25 72% 44% 57% +17 -2 1.33 23% 0.8 .18 16% .52 71% .37
Dec
5		 Mercyhurst B+ F F A+ A+ 43% 9% 48% B- A+ C+ B B F D A+ B+ F C+ B A B- 29% 43% 28% A B F F F F A- D+ B+
1.24 47% 25% 57% +11 +2 1.27 36% 1.1 .40 24% .33 94% .31 1.11 53% 36% 25% -6 -4 0.83 37% 1.6 .61 9% .14 75% .10
Dec
8		 Penn D+ C+ F A+ C+ 55% 13% 32% A- B- F F F D D+ A+ C B- D A- A B- 46% 29% 25% D+ B- C A B+ F B- A- B
1.01 62% 14% 41% +3 +2 1.11 20% 0.5 .10 18% .22 77% .17 1.03 62% 31% 29% -2 0 0.96 31% 0.8 .24 13% .30 63% .19
Dec
18		 Charlotte C+ B+ F B+ C 29% 20% 51% C- C B D- C C- F F F F B B- F F 27% 13% 60% B- F A F C- F A+ F A+
1.13 67% 10% 38% +1 -1 1.02 35% 1.0 .35 15% .08 50% .04 1.37 54% 33% 55% +18 0 1.38 26% 1.3 .33 12% .17 89% .15
Dec
20		 Georgia Tech B+ B- A+ C+ B+ 30% 13% 57% B A- D- F F A B B+ B+ F C+ B+ F D- 39% 31% 30% B+ D D- F F F F F F
1.14 59% 57% 34% +3 0 1.09 23% 0.5 .11 11% .33 76% .25 1.34 57% 29% 56% +7 -1 1.13 38% 1.5 .56 13% .48 87% .42
Dec
31		 Colgate D- D+ A+ F D- 45% 16% 39% B D F A+ C+ D+ A+ D A F+ F+ F D+ F+ 40% 23% 37% D+ F+ B A+ A+ F+ F C- F
1.05 55% 50% 26% -4 +1 0.96 18% 1.8 .32 16% .46 68% .31 1.16 67% 50% 37% +8 0 1.17 23% 0.4 .09 12% .51 73% .37
Jan
3		 Loyola Maryland B C A+ F+ D+ 49% 14% 37% B+ C D A+ A+ B D+ F F B A- C- C+ B- 39% 15% 46% C B- B A A- F+ A- D+ B+
1.21 63% 57% 28% +2 +2 1.08 28% 2.0 .56 12% .26 53% .14 0.98 48% 38% 32% -5 +1 0.93 24% 0.8 .18 14% .20 73% .14
Jan
7		 Boston University F B- A+ F F 52% 16% 32% B+ F+ F F F A D+ F F F B- F F F 38% 29% 33% A- F+ D C D+ F B- D+ C+
1.02 62% 56% 17% -3 +2 0.98 18% 0.7 .13 8% .26 50% .13 1.26 55% 53% 53% +13 -1 1.25 30% 1.0 .30 14% .26 73% .19
Jan
10		 Navy F C+ F D F 27% 23% 50% C F F F F F+ A- F B- D F+ F D F 33% 26% 41% B F A+ F C F+ F A+ C+
0.75 62% 9% 29% -9 -1 0.81 19% 0.3 .05 21% .32 65% .21 1.14 67% 50% 37% +8 -1 1.15 21% 1.6 .32 15% .47 48% .23
Jan
14		 Bucknell D D+ F A D 33% 17% 50% C+ D+ F A D- C+ F B F+ F C B F F 45% 16% 39% D F C- F F B+ C F D+
1.05 56% 13% 42% +1 0 1.04 21% 1.3 .26 17% .24 77% .18 1.15 55% 29% 47% +5 +1 1.14 27% 2.0 .54 23% .27 86% .24
Jan
17		 Holy Cross D+ F D B+ F+ 54% 21% 25% C+ D- A- F C+ A+ A+ F A- A C B A+ A- 23% 35% 42% A A B+ D+ B- C+ F B+ F+
1.14 50% 36% 38% -3 +1 0.98 38% 0.9 .35 8% .40 63% .25 0.85 55% 35% 25% -7 -3 0.81 17% 1.0 .17 17% .37 70% .26
Jan
21		 Boston University F+ C- F D+ F 44% 13% 44% B F+ D+ F F C+ F B+ F B- C- F C C 44% 8% 48% F C- B+ D- C+ B- C+ A B
1.02 56% 25% 33% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.5 .12 11% .14 78% .11 1.08 61% 50% 36% +4 +2 1.13 22% 1.1 .25 20% .28 63% .17
Jan
24		 Lehigh F D D+ F F 43% 16% 41% B F D F+ F+ B C+ F D+ B A A+ F A- 48% 20% 33% F B F D- F A+ C+ F D-
0.90 52% 38% 20% -11 +1 0.82 29% 0.8 .24 14% .34 63% .21 0.98 45% 11% 47% -5 +1 0.93 29% 1.1 .32 24% .26 92% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Bucknell B A+ D+ D C 32% 18% 50% C C C C+ C+ A A+ C A+ F F F D F 20% 42% 38% A+ D- F F F F F C+ F
1.24 79% 38% 32% +5 0 1.11 34% 1.1 .38 12% .54 74% .40 1.21 67% 42% 35% +4 -4 1.02 32% 1.3 .42 15% .58 75% .43
Jan
31		 American D+ C+ A C C 38% 13% 49% B- C+ B- F F C+ D+ F F B- F A A+ B- 33% 23% 44% A- B F C- F+ C D+ B- C-
1.05 61% 50% 35% +3 +1 1.11 35% 0.4 .15 17% .36 58% .21 1.02 75% 27% 24% -3 -1 0.94 35% 0.9 .32 17% .29 73% .21
Feb
4		 Navy F B A+ F D- 36% 6% 57% A+ D+ F F F D- F A+ F C D D- A+ C+ 41% 39% 20% A B- B B- B F A D A-
0.79 65% 67% 22% -6 +2 0.94 18% 0.0 .00 20% .12 100% .12 1.02 62% 45% 10% -3 -2 0.92 26% 1.0 .26 14% .24 77% .18
Feb
7		 Army F F+ D F+ F 45% 19% 36% C+ F C F F+ F A+ F B A C- A- A+ A- 43% 7% 50% D B F+ A C+ B- A F B+
0.94 52% 33% 29% -6 +1 0.91 33% 0.8 .25 19% .48 62% .29 0.89 57% 25% 22% -10 +2 0.85 36% 0.7 .26 19% .17 78% .13
Feb
11		 Loyola Maryland F C+ A- F F 35% 11% 54% B F D- F F A+ D- F F C- C- D+ C- D- 37% 9% 54% D+ D A+ A- A D A+ D- A
0.82 63% 50% 14% -13 +1 0.78 27% 0.5 .14 6% .24 40% .10 1.04 60% 40% 34% +1 +1 1.07 18% 0.8 .15 15% .14 75% .11
Feb
14		 Lehigh D A+ C+ F C+ 46% 15% 39% B+ B- F F F F+ B C B F F D- F F 35% 38% 27% A F D A+ B+ F B B- B
1.07 71% 43% 28% +3 +1 1.11 24% 0.6 .14 20% .37 74% .27 1.21 72% 45% 50% +14 -3 1.25 25% 0.6 .14 12% .23 69% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.2 1.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.8 0.9 3.8 5th
6th 2.8 8.2 0.4 11.4 6th
7th 5.7 25.6 5.9 37.2 7th
8th 0.4 20.4 8.5 0.2 29.5 8th
9th 5.1 6.2 0.1 11.4 9th
10th 5.0 0.3 5.3 10th
Total 10.5 32.6 37.1 17.2 2.6 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 2.6% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 2.5
8-10 17.2% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.5 16.7
7-11 37.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.4 36.7
6-12 32.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.3 32.3
5-13 10.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 10.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 16.0 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%
Lose Out 5.8%