Lafayette
Patriot League
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#261
Expected Predictive Rating-7.5#294
Pace59.1#358
Improvement-0.2#202

Offense
Total Offense-6.1#331
First Shot-5.1#325
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#254
Layup/Dunks-3.4#315
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#14
Freethrows-3.8#360
Improvement-1.5#341

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#150
First Shot+0.5#159
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#156
Layups/Dunks+0.1#174
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#157
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#157
Freethrows-0.5#226
Improvement+1.3#20
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 3.1% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 48.8% 62.2% 28.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.5% 3.4%
First Four2.7% 3.1% 2.2%
First Round1.4% 1.6% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Home) - 60.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 33 - 53 - 12
Quad 48 - 910 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 34   @ Miami (FL) L 54-67 4%     0 - 1 +1.8 -8.6 +8.9
  Nov 12, 2022 72   @ St. John's L 68-83 8%     0 - 2 -4.7 +4.1 -9.5
  Nov 14, 2022 162   @ Saint Joseph's L 59-63 21%     0 - 3 -1.0 -6.3 +4.9
  Nov 18, 2022 217   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 63-71 29%     0 - 4 -7.6 -8.4 +0.2
  Nov 19, 2022 329   Central Connecticut St. W 55-50 67%     1 - 4 -5.0 -12.0 +8.0
  Nov 22, 2022 148   Penn L 68-74 OT 36%     1 - 5 -7.7 -8.7 +1.0
  Nov 25, 2022 45   @ Penn St. L 57-70 5%     1 - 6 +0.2 -3.2 +1.6
  Nov 30, 2022 202   @ Drexel L 56-64 27%     1 - 7 -6.9 -3.8 -4.7
  Dec 04, 2022 105   @ Cornell L 68-73 13%     1 - 8 +1.7 -5.0 +6.5
  Dec 06, 2022 115   @ Princeton L 58-69 15%     1 - 9 -5.3 -7.2 +0.8
  Dec 10, 2022 133   @ Quinnipiac L 63-76 17%     1 - 10 -8.4 -2.3 -7.1
  Dec 12, 2022 346   Columbia L 45-57 81%     1 - 11 -26.8 -28.8 +0.8
  Dec 21, 2022 230   @ La Salle W 90-65 33%     2 - 11 +24.2 +27.2 -0.4
  Dec 30, 2022 236   American L 47-60 55%     2 - 12 0 - 1 -19.5 -26.1 +5.6
  Jan 02, 2023 237   Army L 65-82 55%     2 - 13 0 - 2 -23.6 -5.9 -19.5
  Jan 05, 2023 276   @ Boston University L 69-73 OT 42%     2 - 14 0 - 3 -7.2 -1.6 -5.7
  Jan 08, 2023 295   Bucknell W 74-67 OT 67%     3 - 14 1 - 3 -2.9 -7.9 +4.6
  Jan 11, 2023 212   @ Navy W 59-50 28%     4 - 14 2 - 3 +9.6 -3.2 +14.4
  Jan 14, 2023 326   Holy Cross W 62-48 74%     5 - 14 3 - 3 +1.9 -8.1 +11.6
  Jan 18, 2023 236   @ American W 70-59 34%     6 - 14 4 - 3 +9.9 +11.2 +1.1
  Jan 21, 2023 258   @ Lehigh L 49-61 38%     6 - 15 4 - 4 -14.4 -20.8 +5.8
  Jan 25, 2023 333   Loyola Maryland W 62-46 77%     7 - 15 5 - 4 +3.0 -10.4 +14.8
  Jan 28, 2023 118   @ Colgate L 57-69 16%     7 - 16 5 - 5 -6.6 -9.5 +1.5
  Feb 01, 2023 212   Navy L 34-53 48%     7 - 17 5 - 6 -23.8 -36.0 +9.2
  Feb 04, 2023 258   Lehigh W 63-61 60%    
  Feb 06, 2023 326   @ Holy Cross W 61-60 54%    
  Feb 11, 2023 276   Boston University W 61-58 63%    
  Feb 15, 2023 333   @ Loyola Maryland W 60-58 57%    
  Feb 18, 2023 237   @ Army L 62-66 34%    
  Feb 22, 2023 118   Colgate L 63-68 32%    
  Feb 25, 2023 295   @ Bucknell L 62-63 46%    
Projected Record 10 - 21 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 2.5 0.7 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 5.1 2.5 0.1 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 6.4 7.0 0.6 14.5 4th
5th 0.3 6.7 13.2 2.9 0.1 23.2 5th
6th 0.1 5.4 15.2 5.5 0.2 26.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 9.2 3.9 0.1 14.9 7th
8th 0.3 3.5 2.4 0.1 6.3 8th
9th 0.6 1.0 0.1 1.7 9th
10th 0.2 0.1 0.2 10th
Total 1.1 6.4 17.3 26.4 26.1 16.2 5.7 0.9 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.9% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.8
11-7 5.7% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.3 5.3
10-8 16.2% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.7 15.5
9-9 26.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.7 25.3
8-10 26.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.6 25.8
7-11 17.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 17.1
6-12 6.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 6.3
5-13 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.8 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 6.6% 16.0 0.2 6.3
Lose Out 1.1% 0.7% 16.0 0.7