Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.7 #321
Expected Predictive Rating -14.4 #343
Pace 68.4 #216
Improvement +2.4 #63

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #298 D+ C D+ C- C+
Defense #325 D+ B- D- F C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #143 1.03 #315 -1.9 #247
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #233 0.59 #333 -2.5 #293
Three Pointers 42% #155 1.02 #173 +0.8 #152
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #271 -3.5 #272
Freethrows 17.1 #196 72% #192 12.3 #190
Second Chance 25.2% #311 1.06 #154 0.27 #278
Turnovers 17.9% #254
Total Offense -4.9 #298

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #146 1.20 #228 -1.6 #234
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #91 0.78 #210 -1.4 #275
Three Pointers 37% #287 1.10 #291 +0.4 #177
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #257 -2.6 #262
Freethrows 15.2 #83 85% #365 12.8 #109
Second Chance 33.8% #293 1.14 #285 0.38 #315
Turnovers 13.0% #346
Total Defense -4.9 #325

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #128 -0.5% #130
Shot Type Make % Effect -7.7% #295 5.5% #274
Possession Length 17.9 #247 16.7 #100
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #360 0.20 #272
Improvement +1.9 #52 +0.6 #146

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 4.2% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.5% 2.8% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 30.0% 43.5% 19.8%
Conference Champion 1.1% 2.0% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 21.8% 11.5% 29.6%
First Four3.0% 3.8% 2.3%
First Round1.6% 2.2% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Away) - 43.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 9
Quad 49 - 1310 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 192 @Saint Joseph's L 76-85 16%     -6.0   0 - 1 -8.0 +4.6 -12.5
  Sat, Nov 8 43 @Texas L 60-97 2%     -18.4   0 - 2 -21.7 -6.4 -15.9
  Thu, Nov 13 159 Cornell L 78-97 26%     -7.4   0 - 3 -22.0 -7.5 -13.2
  Mon, Nov 17 64 @West Virginia L 59-81 3%     -11.0   0 - 4 -10.3 -4.1 -7.2
  Fri, Nov 21 337 @Stonehill L 70-74 45%     -4.1   0 - 5 -12.4 -4.9 -7.4
  Fri, Nov 28 309 Le Moyne L 63-76 58%     -0.9   0 - 6 -24.7 -17.4 -7.5
  Sat, Nov 29 299 Ball St. W 55-37 55%     4.5   1 - 6 +7.0 -14.3 +23.8
  Sun, Nov 30 234 Monmouth L 74-88 40%     -12.7   1 - 7 -21.3 -2.8 -18.3
  Fri, Dec 5 317 Mercyhurst W 79-71 61%     2.4   2 - 7 -4.5 +9.5 -13.2
  Mon, Dec 8 219 @Penn L 72-74 19%     -5.7   2 - 8 -2.5 -3.7 +1.2
  Thu, Dec 18 190 @Charlotte L 67-81 16%     -10.7   2 - 9 -12.9 +5.7 -21.2
  Sat, Dec 20 114 @Georgia Tech L 81-95 7%     -6.5   2 - 10 -7.4 +11.7 -18.9
  Wed, Dec 31 195 Colgate L 77-85 33%     -1.3   2 - 11 0 - 1 -13.1 -2.7 -10.1
  Sat, Jan 3 333 @Loyola Maryland L 74-76 43%    
  Wed, Jan 7 280 Boston University L 72-73 49%    
  Sat, Jan 10 204 @Navy L 66-76 18%    
  Wed, Jan 14 312 @Bucknell L 69-73 35%    
  Sat, Jan 17 316 Holy Cross W 73-70 60%    
  Wed, Jan 21 280 @Boston University L 69-75 29%    
  Sat, Jan 24 327 @Lehigh L 70-73 39%    
  Mon, Jan 26 312 Bucknell W 72-70 56%    
  Sat, Jan 31 255 @American L 70-78 25%    
  Wed, Feb 4 204 Navy L 69-73 37%    
  Sat, Feb 7 319 @Army L 71-74 40%    
  Wed, Feb 11 333 Loyola Maryland W 77-73 64%    
  Sat, Feb 14 327 Lehigh W 73-70 62%    
  Wed, Feb 18 316 @Holy Cross L 70-73 38%    
  Sun, Feb 22 255 American L 73-75 45%    
  Wed, Feb 25 195 @Colgate L 68-79 17%    
  Sat, Feb 28 319 Army W 74-71 59%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.6 0.9 0.2 6.6 3rd
4th 0.5 3.3 4.1 1.2 0.1 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.5 5.7 1.6 0.1 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.3 3.4 6.7 2.4 0.2 0.0 12.9 6th
7th 0.2 2.7 7.1 3.5 0.3 13.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.1 4.3 0.4 13.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 3.0 5.8 4.0 0.6 0.0 14.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.8 4.4 2.7 0.5 13.9 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.5 7.7 11.3 13.6 15.7 14.7 12.1 8.7 5.0 2.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 81.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 71.1% 0.3    0.3 0.1
13-5 27.6% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 9.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.5% 17.8% 17.8% 16.0 0.1 0.4
13-5 1.1% 13.3% 13.3% 16.0 0.1 0.9
12-6 2.6% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.2 2.4
11-7 5.0% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.5 4.5
10-8 8.7% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.4 8.3
9-9 12.1% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.8 11.4
8-10 14.7% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.6 14.2
7-11 15.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 15.4
6-12 13.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.5
5-13 11.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 11.2
4-14 7.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.7
3-15 4.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.5
2-16 1.8% 1.8
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 96.9 0.0%