Colgate
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#181
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#171
Pace67.4#238
Improvement-1.0#250

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#169
First Shot+2.8#93
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#339
Layup/Dunks+2.4#91
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#60
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#122
Freethrows-3.8#350
Improvement-0.3#200

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#213
First Shot-1.3#215
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#200
Layups/Dunks-3.5#304
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#34
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#158
Freethrows-0.6#223
Improvement-0.7#235
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.8% 35.0% 29.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 89.6% 93.9% 82.2%
.500 or above in Conference 95.1% 96.2% 93.3%
Conference Champion 48.6% 52.0% 43.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
First Four3.7% 2.6% 5.5%
First Round31.1% 33.8% 26.7%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Harvard (Home) - 63.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 22 - 6
Quad 417 - 619 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 16 @Michigan St. L 69-80 3%     0 - 1 +9.4 +9.1 +0.2
  Fri, Nov 7 205 Northeastern L 65-68 66%     0 - 2 -8.9 -7.9 -1.1
  Tue, Nov 11 274 Drexel W 90-83 76%     1 - 2 -2.0 +13.8 -15.8
  Fri, Nov 14 10 @Illinois L 65-84 2%     1 - 3 +4.0 +4.1 -1.0
  Mon, Nov 17 179 @Siena W 72-69 38%     2 - 3 +4.6 +7.9 -3.0
  Thu, Nov 20 159 @Cornell L 94-95 2OT 33%     2 - 4 +2.1 -4.8 +7.1
  Fri, Nov 28 310 Albany W 69-67 75%     3 - 4 -6.6 -3.0 -3.4
  Sun, Nov 30 193 Fordham W 72-62 52%     4 - 4 +7.9 +6.1 +2.8
  Wed, Dec 10 116 @St. Bonaventure L 77-85 23%     4 - 5 -1.7 +7.3 -9.1
  Sun, Dec 21 12 @Florida L 60-90 3%     4 - 6 -9.0 +3.1 -14.5
  Sun, Dec 28 192 Harvard W 72-68 63%    
  Wed, Dec 31 321 @Lafayette W 75-70 68%    
  Sat, Jan 3 331 @Army W 76-70 71%    
  Wed, Jan 7 268 American W 78-71 75%    
  Sat, Jan 10 315 Lehigh W 77-67 84%    
  Wed, Jan 14 329 @Loyola Maryland W 78-73 69%    
  Sat, Jan 17 308 Bucknell W 76-66 82%    
  Wed, Jan 21 268 @American W 75-74 55%    
  Sat, Jan 24 288 Boston University W 76-68 77%    
  Wed, Jan 28 326 Holy Cross W 77-66 85%    
  Sat, Jan 31 315 @Lehigh W 74-70 66%    
  Wed, Feb 4 331 Army W 79-67 86%    
  Sat, Feb 7 308 @Bucknell W 73-69 64%    
  Wed, Feb 11 326 @Holy Cross W 74-69 69%    
  Sat, Feb 14 203 Navy W 73-69 65%    
  Mon, Feb 16 288 @Boston University W 73-71 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 329 Loyola Maryland W 81-70 85%    
  Wed, Feb 25 321 Lafayette W 78-67 84%    
  Sat, Feb 28 203 @Navy L 70-72 43%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.8 8.1 11.9 11.6 8.5 4.2 1.1 48.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.2 7.3 7.3 3.7 1.0 0.1 23.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.1 3.3 0.9 0.1 12.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.3 0.2 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.9 0.1 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.6 4.5 7.5 10.7 13.8 16.3 15.8 12.6 8.6 4.2 1.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 100.0% 4.2    4.2 0.0
16-2 98.8% 8.5    8.1 0.4
15-3 91.9% 11.6    10.0 1.6 0.0
14-4 75.7% 11.9    8.4 3.4 0.2
13-5 49.8% 8.1    3.9 3.4 0.8 0.0
12-6 20.3% 2.8    0.7 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 48.6% 48.6 36.4 10.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 60.8% 60.8% 12.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.4
17-1 4.2% 53.8% 53.8% 13.6 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.9
16-2 8.6% 49.4% 49.4% 14.1 0.0 0.8 2.1 1.4 0.0 4.3
15-3 12.6% 42.9% 42.9% 14.6 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.8 0.4 7.2
14-4 15.8% 37.5% 37.5% 15.0 0.0 1.1 3.5 1.3 9.9
13-5 16.3% 33.2% 33.2% 15.3 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.2 10.9
12-6 13.8% 27.7% 27.7% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.1 10.0
11-7 10.7% 23.7% 23.7% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.9 8.2
10-8 7.5% 18.8% 18.8% 15.9 0.2 1.2 6.1
9-9 4.5% 15.4% 15.4% 15.9 0.1 0.6 3.8
8-10 2.6% 10.8% 10.8% 16.0 0.3 2.4
7-11 1.2% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.1 1.1
6-12 0.7% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.2% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 32.8% 32.8% 0.0% 14.9 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.9 13.0 10.1 67.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 12.2 13.3 58.8 27.3 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%