Colgate
Patriot League
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#111
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#189
Pace72.9#90
Improvement-1.6#296

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#59
First Shot+5.2#38
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#214
Layup/Dunks+3.0#75
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#27
Freethrows-0.5#224
Improvement-1.1#292

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#206
First Shot-1.8#238
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#131
Layups/Dunks-1.4#239
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#56
Freethrows-0.5#219
Improvement-0.5#229
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.9% 34.2% 28.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.0
.500 or above 91.1% 96.1% 86.7%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 98.5% 97.3%
Conference Champion 40.7% 45.9% 36.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.4% 0.9%
First Round30.7% 34.1% 27.7%
Second Round4.7% 5.5% 4.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.7% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Away) - 46.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 34 - 46 - 9
Quad 414 - 321 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 148   Northeastern W 65-58 69%     1 - 0 +5.4 -2.7 +8.3
  Nov 13, 2021 64   @ North Carolina St. L 74-77 25%     1 - 1 +7.5 +12.9 -5.7
  Nov 16, 2021 185   @ Cornell L 68-78 57%     1 - 2 -8.2 -11.1 +3.7
  Nov 20, 2021 71   @ Syracuse W 100-85 27%     2 - 2 +25.1 +23.4 +1.1
  Nov 24, 2021 131   @ Harvard L 84-89 OT 43%     2 - 3 +0.3 +2.4 -1.4
  Nov 29, 2021 180   Niagara L 59-70 77%     2 - 4 -15.0 -10.3 -5.6
  Dec 03, 2021 148   @ Northeastern L 68-69 47%    
  Dec 06, 2021 333   Columbia W 85-67 96%    
  Dec 09, 2021 200   @ Pittsburgh W 72-70 58%    
  Dec 12, 2021 61   @ St. John's L 78-85 26%    
  Dec 19, 2021 135   @ Monmouth L 78-80 45%    
  Dec 22, 2021 104   @ Vermont L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 01, 2022 272   @ Lafayette W 79-72 74%    
  Jan 04, 2022 313   @ Lehigh W 80-71 80%    
  Jan 07, 2022 320   American W 84-68 92%    
  Jan 10, 2022 249   Army W 82-71 85%    
  Jan 13, 2022 101   @ Navy L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 16, 2022 343   Holy Cross W 86-66 96%    
  Jan 19, 2022 291   @ Bucknell W 84-76 76%    
  Jan 22, 2022 272   Lafayette W 82-69 87%    
  Jan 24, 2022 287   Loyola Maryland W 80-67 88%    
  Jan 29, 2022 144   @ Boston University L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 02, 2022 291   Bucknell W 87-73 89%    
  Feb 05, 2022 320   @ American W 81-71 81%    
  Feb 09, 2022 313   Lehigh W 83-68 91%    
  Feb 12, 2022 287   @ Loyola Maryland W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 16, 2022 249   @ Army W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 19, 2022 144   Boston University W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 23, 2022 343   @ Holy Cross W 83-69 88%    
  Feb 26, 2022 101   Navy W 72-70 58%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 5.5 10.9 12.2 7.8 2.5 40.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.4 7.5 10.1 6.6 1.5 30.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.6 6.3 4.9 1.6 0.1 17.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.9 2.6 1.3 0.1 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.3 4.1 7.3 11.2 14.2 17.2 17.5 13.7 7.8 2.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.5    2.5
17-1 100.0% 7.8    7.4 0.4
16-2 89.0% 12.2    9.3 2.9 0.0
15-3 61.9% 10.9    6.3 4.1 0.5
14-4 32.1% 5.5    2.2 2.4 0.9 0.0
13-5 11.7% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 40.7% 40.7 28.1 10.7 1.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.5% 63.4% 62.3% 1.0% 11.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 2.7%
17-1 7.8% 54.9% 54.3% 0.5% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3 1.7 0.8 0.2 3.5 1.2%
16-2 13.7% 42.7% 42.5% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 1.0 2.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.9 0.3%
15-3 17.5% 37.7% 37.7% 13.7 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.7 1.0 0.1 10.9
14-4 17.2% 29.9% 29.9% 14.1 0.1 1.1 2.1 1.6 0.2 12.1
13-5 14.2% 23.9% 23.9% 14.6 0.4 1.1 1.6 0.3 10.8
12-6 11.2% 21.2% 21.2% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.4 8.8
11-7 7.3% 12.7% 12.7% 15.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 6.3
10-8 4.1% 10.1% 10.1% 15.7 0.1 0.3 3.7
9-9 2.3% 7.6% 7.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.1
8-10 1.4% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 0.1 1.3
7-11 0.5% 0.5
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 30.9% 30.8% 0.1% 13.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 3.5 8.4 9.4 6.8 2.0 69.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.5 50.8 16.4 16.4 16.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 12.5% 10.7 4.2 8.3