Colgate
Patriot League
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#118
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#136
Pace67.9#192
Improvement+0.0#189

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#55
First Shot+6.6#26
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#294
Layup/Dunks+5.2#22
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#157
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#85
Freethrows-1.4#288
Improvement-0.8#305

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#245
First Shot-3.0#274
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#107
Layups/Dunks+2.1#96
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#360
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#278
Freethrows+2.3#39
Improvement+0.8#64
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.5% 70.0% 63.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 99.6% 99.9% 99.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round67.5% 70.0% 63.3%
Second Round7.2% 8.1% 5.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.7% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: American (Away) - 62.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 1
Quad 33 - 64 - 7
Quad 417 - 221 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 183   @ Buffalo L 87-88 52%     0 - 1 +1.2 +0.2 +1.2
  Nov 10, 2022 207   @ Brown W 77-68 57%     1 - 1 +9.9 +6.8 +3.1
  Nov 15, 2022 75   @ Syracuse W 80-68 25%     2 - 1 +21.7 +13.7 +8.5
  Nov 18, 2022 126   Duquesne L 80-85 52%     2 - 2 -2.7 +4.1 -6.6
  Nov 21, 2022 351   Monmouth W 85-66 94%     3 - 2 +3.6 +12.1 -7.6
  Nov 25, 2022 206   Delaware L 68-72 67%     3 - 3 -5.8 -6.0 +0.2
  Nov 26, 2022 148   @ Penn L 69-81 46%     3 - 4 -8.2 -3.5 -4.8
  Nov 27, 2022 360   Hartford W 92-58 96%     4 - 4 +17.1 +22.4 -1.2
  Dec 02, 2022 27   @ Auburn L 66-93 12%     4 - 5 -11.4 +3.5 -15.7
  Dec 07, 2022 324   @ Binghamton W 81-62 81%     5 - 5 +12.5 +13.1 +1.4
  Dec 10, 2022 146   Vermont L 72-73 66%     5 - 6 -2.5 +5.6 -8.2
  Dec 22, 2022 105   Cornell L 80-91 56%     5 - 7 -9.8 +1.7 -11.4
  Dec 30, 2022 333   @ Loyola Maryland W 101-67 83%     6 - 7 1 - 0 +26.5 +29.3 -1.7
  Jan 02, 2023 258   @ Lehigh W 76-60 69%     7 - 7 2 - 0 +13.6 +6.2 +8.1
  Jan 05, 2023 212   Navy W 87-73 77%     8 - 7 3 - 0 +9.2 +13.1 -3.7
  Jan 09, 2023 237   @ Army W 77-75 65%     9 - 7 4 - 0 +0.9 +3.6 -2.7
  Jan 11, 2023 276   Boston University W 77-71 85%     10 - 7 5 - 0 -2.6 -1.6 -1.2
  Jan 14, 2023 295   Bucknell W 71-65 88%     11 - 7 6 - 0 -3.9 -3.7 +0.1
  Jan 18, 2023 326   @ Holy Cross W 77-71 81%     12 - 7 7 - 0 -0.6 +5.4 -5.8
  Jan 21, 2023 236   American W 62-61 81%     13 - 7 8 - 0 -5.5 -2.6 -2.8
  Jan 23, 2023 276   @ Boston University W 64-51 71%     14 - 7 9 - 0 +9.8 -4.3 +15.2
  Jan 28, 2023 261   Lafayette W 69-57 84%     15 - 7 10 - 0 +3.9 +4.2 +1.2
  Jan 30, 2023 333   Loyola Maryland W 76-63 92%     16 - 7 11 - 0 +0.0 +6.2 -4.8
  Feb 04, 2023 236   @ American W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 08, 2023 258   Lehigh W 80-69 85%    
  Feb 11, 2023 295   @ Bucknell W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 15, 2023 237   Army W 81-72 82%    
  Feb 18, 2023 326   Holy Cross W 79-64 92%    
  Feb 22, 2023 261   @ Lafayette W 68-63 68%    
  Feb 25, 2023 212   @ Navy W 72-70 57%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 6.6 18.0 30.4 30.1 13.2 99.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.4 6.7 18.0 30.4 30.1 13.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 13.2    13.2
17-1 100.0% 30.1    30.1
16-2 100.0% 30.4    30.4
15-3 100.0% 18.0    17.9 0.1
14-4 98.8% 6.6    6.0 0.6 0.0
13-5 86.4% 1.2    0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 37.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 99.6% 99.6 98.4 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 13.2% 77.9% 77.9% 0.0% 13.1 0.2 1.7 5.7 2.7 0.1 2.9 0.1%
17-1 30.1% 72.2% 72.2% 13.6 0.0 0.6 8.2 11.7 1.3 0.0 8.4
16-2 30.4% 66.7% 66.7% 13.9 0.0 0.2 4.4 12.5 3.2 0.0 10.1
15-3 18.0% 60.0% 60.0% 14.2 0.0 1.2 6.3 3.3 0.1 7.2
14-4 6.7% 53.8% 53.8% 14.5 0.2 1.6 1.7 0.1 3.1
13-5 1.4% 48.7% 48.7% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7
12-6 0.2% 46.2% 46.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 67.5% 67.5% 0.0% 13.8 0.2 2.4 19.7 35.0 10.0 0.2 32.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 13.2% 77.9% 13.1 1.4 12.5 43.2 20.1 0.7