Colgate
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.7 206
Expected Predictive Rating -2.5 210
Pace 67.4 218
Improvement -1.9 263

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #186 C+ D C+ D D+
Defense C- #233 C- C+ D+ C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 233 58% 163 -1.0 217
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 72 45% 33 +4.0 27
Three Pointers 37% 263 36% 94 -0.8 210
1st FG Attempt 1.06 107 +2.2 109
Second Chance 27.4% 268 0.94 296 0.26 297
Turnovers 16.4% 148
Freethrows 0.26 316 71% 211 0.19 311
Total Offense -0.9 186

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 128 60% 226 -1.9 243
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 189 36% 121 +0.4 155
Three Pointers 39% 245 34% 209 +0.6 159
1st FG Attempt 1.04 204 -0.8 207
Second Chance 29.5% 136 1.00 142 0.30 130
Turnovers 15.3% 276
Freethrows 0.32 221 72% 169 0.23 223
Total Defense -1.8 233

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.8 298 +0.2 201
Shot Type Accuracy +3.1 77 +0.6 208
Possession Length 17.7 217 17.3 189
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 196 0.14 66
Improvement -2.1 #298 +0.2 #172

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.9% 27.4% 23.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 97.7% 99.6% 94.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 16.4% 20.7% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.2% 1.5% 3.6%
First Round25.0% 26.8% 21.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Away) - 66.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 32 - 7
Quad 416 - 618 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 10 @Michigan St. L 69 - 80 2% -6  3% 0 - 1 B+ +12 B+ +8 A+ C- D+ B- +4 A+ D+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 268 Northeastern L 65 - 68 73% +1  65% 0 - 2 D- -12 F -15 F+ F B- B- +2 B+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 215 Drexel W 90 - 83 62% +7  81% 1 - 2 C +1 A+ +15 A+ D+ D- F -14 F C- D-
 Fri, Nov 14 6 @Illinois L 65 - 84 1% -11  1% 1 - 3 B- +6 C+ +2 B- D+ A B- +3 A+ C- D
 Mon, Nov 17 181 @Siena W 72 - 69 33% +0  46% 2 - 3 C+ +5 C+ +3 B D+ B- C+ +2 B- D- D+
 Thu, Nov 20 154 @Cornell L 94 - 95 2OT 30% +0  43% 2 - 4 C+ +2 F+ -9 F+ D- C+ A +11 B A+ B-
 Fri, Nov 28 326 Albany W 69 - 67 76% -2  29% 3 - 4 D -8 D -6 B- F C+ C- -2 F+ A- C-
 Sun, Nov 30 166 Fordham W 72 - 62 42% +9  93% 4 - 4 B +9 B- +5 A F+ C+ B +5 B- B- C+
 Wed, Dec 10 134 @St. Bonaventure L 77 - 85 24% +3  62% 4 - 5 C- -3 C+ +2 D A- A+ D+ -5 C C C
 Sun, Dec 21 4 @Florida L 60 - 90 1% -17  4% 4 - 6 C- -4 C+ +2 A+ D+ F+ F+ -9 D+ F D+
 Sun, Dec 28 153 Harvard L 69 - 78 50% -2  30% 4 - 7 D- -12 D- -6 C- D+ D+ D -6 F A- F+
 Wed, Dec 31 313 @Lafayette W 85 - 77 63% +1  61% 5 - 7 1 - 0 C+ +2 B- +4 B+ F B C- -3 C- F+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 340 @Army W 76 - 69 71% +3  70% 6 - 7 2 - 0 C -1 B +7 B- D- B+ D- -7 D+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 254 American W 64 - 62 70% -5  9% 7 - 7 3 - 0 D+ -6 D+ -3 D+ C- B- C- -3 F A B-
 Sat, Jan 10 310 Lehigh L 77 - 78 81% -2  26% 7 - 8 3 - 1 D- -13 C+ +3 B- D C+ F -15 F C- F
 Wed, Jan 14 316 @Loyola Maryland W 86 - 80 65% +3  83% 8 - 8 4 - 1 C -1 B- +4 C- D B+ D+ -5 D+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 320 Bucknell W 95 - 76 83% +14  97% 9 - 8 5 - 1 B- +6 A +13 A+ A B+ D -7 C- C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 254 @American L 66 - 70 48% -1  44% 9 - 9 5 - 2 D+ -6 D- -7 D+ F+ D+ C+ +1 C F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 282 Boston University W 80 - 79 OT 76% -3  10% 10 - 9 6 - 2 D -9 D- -7 C B- F C- -2 D A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 28 323 Holy Cross W 79 - 74 83% -0  38% 11 - 9 7 - 2 D -8 C +2 D+ B- A F+ -9 F B F
 Sat, Jan 31 310 @Lehigh L 76 - 77 OT 62% -1  30% 11 - 10 7 - 3 D+ -7 D+ -3 D+ A F+ D+ -4 F D+ A+
 Wed, Feb 4 340 Army W 69 - 55 86% +8  57% 12 - 10 8 - 3 C -0 F+ -8 C- D F A- +9 B+ B+ B
 Sat, Feb 7 320 @Bucknell W 78 - 59 65% +14  99% 13 - 10 9 - 3 B+ +12 D+ -3 D D- A- A+ +14 A+ B- D
 Wed, Feb 11 323 @Holy Cross W 74 - 70 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 173 Navy W 70 - 69 54%
 Mon, Feb 16 282 @Boston University W 73 - 72 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 316 Loyola Maryland W 80 - 70 83%
 Wed, Feb 25 313 Lafayette W 76 - 67 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 173 @Navy L 67 - 72 33%
Totals 17 - 12 13 - 5 -3 C -1 C+ D C+ C- -2 C- C+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C B+ B- B- 37% 26% 37% D+ C+ D+ D+ D C+ D C- D C- C- C+ C C- 41% 20% 39% C- C- C+ C+ C+ D+ C- C C-
1.07 58% 45% 36% +3 -1 1.06 27% 0.9 .26 16% .26 71% .19 1.11 60% 36% 34% +1 0 1.04 30% 1.0 .30 15% .32 72% .19
Nov
3		 Michigan St. B+ A+ A A A+ 24% 24% 52% C- A+ F A+ C- D+ F D- F B- D- A+ A+ A+ 34% 32% 34% B+ A+ D- C+ D+ D- F A+ F
1.00 69% 46% 39% +9 -1 1.17 10% 1.0 .10 19% .11 67% .07 1.16 69% 20% 25% -7 -2 0.85 46% 1.1 .49 14% .62 65% .41
Nov
7		 Northeastern F D A+ F F+ 41% 24% 35% D F+ D+ F F B- D- A D+ B- D- A+ A+ A- 51% 12% 37% F+ B+ C A+ A+ F F D F
0.97 55% 58% 24% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.6 .18 16% .28 81% .23 1.01 65% 17% 21% -6 +2 0.94 28% 0.4 .10 10% .42 72% .30
Nov
11		 Drexel A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 33% 28% D A+ F A+ D+ D- A+ A+ A+ F B- F F F 39% 4% 57% F F F A- C- D- C A+ B
1.30 65% 64% 58% +21 -1 1.42 17% 1.7 .28 19% .48 89% .42 1.19 52% 50% 45% +8 +2 1.22 38% 0.7 .28 16% .26 53% .14
Nov
14		 Illinois C+ A+ B- F+ A- 19% 49% 32% F B- D- B D+ A C- A+ C+ B- C A+ A A+ 25% 15% 60% B+ A+ D B- C- D F F F
0.97 73% 39% 28% +1 -5 0.93 17% 1.0 .17 7% .15 89% .13 1.26 62% 25% 28% -6 0 0.89 45% 1.2 .52 10% .40 88% .35
Nov
17		 Siena C+ C+ A+ D- B- 55% 23% 21% B+ B F A D+ B- B- B+ B C+ B- F+ A B- 36% 32% 32% C+ B- F+ C- D- D+ D- F F
1.12 62% 55% 30% +5 +1 1.13 22% 1.2 .26 16% .31 76% .24 1.07 56% 50% 25% -1 -2 0.96 36% 1.0 .36 16% .33 83% .28
Nov
20		 Cornell F+ B- D F F+ 43% 27% 30% D F+ D- C D- C+ F A- F A D+ A+ C B+ 40% 11% 49% C B A+ A+ A+ B- F F+ F
1.02 66% 35% 27% 0 0 1.00 24% 1.2 .29 14% .17 77% .13 1.04 64% 29% 35% +3 +1 1.10 20% 0.3 .05 20% .41 80% .33
Nov
28		 Albany D B- C- A- B 31% 21% 48% D B- F F F C+ F F F C- C+ D F F 43% 21% 36% C F+ B+ A- A- C- A+ A+ A+
1.07 63% 36% 40% +5 -1 1.12 26% 0.9 .24 14% .16 33% .05 1.04 57% 45% 42% +5 0 1.13 26% 0.8 .19 19% .06 33% .02
Nov
30		 Fordham B- B A+ B+ A+ 29% 22% 49% C+ A A- F F+ C+ D A+ C- B C+ A- A B 45% 24% 31% C- B- A- D B- C+ A- F B
1.12 64% 55% 38% +8 -1 1.16 35% 0.5 .18 16% .20 82% .17 0.96 57% 33% 25% -6 0 0.90 29% 1.0 .29 19% .13 86% .11
Dec
10		 St. Bonaventure C+ B- B- F D 37% 30% 33% D- D B+ B- A- A+ C F F D+ F C+ A+ C- 38% 33% 29% B+ C F A- C C F D F
1.10 62% 41% 26% -1 -1 0.96 37% 1.1 .41 9% .30 53% .16 1.22 75% 41% 27% +4 -2 1.08 43% 0.8 .35 17% .42 79% .33
Dec
21		 Florida C+ F C A+ A+ 33% 33% 33% C- A+ D+ F D+ F+ F F F F+ D- F B- D 48% 10% 42% C D+ F D+ F D+ F B+ F
0.93 29% 35% 65% +5 -2 1.08 17% 0.5 .09 20% .15 38% .06 1.39 70% 60% 30% +5 +2 1.17 56% 1.1 .61 14% .48 67% .32
Dec
28		 Harvard D- B+ F D- D+ 48% 20% 31% C C- F A+ D+ D+ F A- F+ D C A+ F F 38% 20% 42% B- F A+ F A- F+ A+ C- A+
1.00 65% 18% 29% -3 +1 0.98 19% 1.3 .25 17% .18 80% .14 1.13 57% 27% 57% +12 0 1.25 13% 1.3 .17 15% .10 83% .09
Dec
31		 Lafayette B- B+ A+ B- B+ 40% 23% 37% C+ B+ F F F B A+ C- A+ C- C+ F A C- 45% 16% 39% C- C- A F F+ C- F C+ F
1.16 67% 50% 37% +8 0 1.17 23% 0.4 .09 12% .51 73% .37 1.05 55% 50% 26% -4 +1 0.96 18% 1.8 .32 16% .46 68% .31
Jan
3		 Army B D+ B- A+ B 33% 20% 47% D+ B- C F D- B+ D A+ C+ D- B+ B+ D- D+ 40% 9% 51% D+ D+ F+ F F F F A+ D
1.24 56% 40% 43% +7 0 1.14 33% 0.9 .30 11% .30 88% .26 1.13 47% 25% 38% -3 +2 1.00 35% 1.2 .41 13% .38 55% .21
Jan
7		 American D+ C- F+ B- D 50% 24% 26% C+ D+ B+ F C- B- A F C+ C- B B F F 57% 6% 36% F F B+ A+ A B- A+ A+ A+
1.08 57% 30% 36% -1 0 1.00 38% 0.8 .29 17% .47 61% .28 1.04 52% 33% 53% +7 +3 1.21 21% 0.5 .10 19% .12 50% .06
Jan
10		 Lehigh C+ F A+ A+ B- 45% 27% 29% C- B- C+ F D C+ B+ B- A- F B A+ F F+ 45% 20% 35% F+ F F A+ C- F F D- F
1.18 45% 62% 43% +4 0 1.10 36% 0.8 .27 15% .38 76% .29 1.20 50% 20% 59% +6 0 1.14 37% 0.6 .24 11% .45 77% .34
Jan
14		 Loyola Maryland B- B+ C- B C+ 29% 36% 35% F C- F A+ D B+ B+ A A D+ D- C C+ D 29% 19% 53% B+ D+ B- A- B+ F F B+ D
1.19 69% 40% 37% +5 -3 1.07 21% 1.6 .33 12% .35 82% .28 1.11 65% 36% 32% 0 0 1.02 25% 0.8 .20 8% .35 65% .23
Jan
17		 Bucknell A A+ A A+ A+ 33% 19% 48% C A+ C+ A+ A B+ B- D- C+ D F A- A+ C 41% 8% 51% F C- A+ F C+ F F F F
1.33 76% 50% 44% +16 0 1.33 34% 1.4 .48 14% .36 68% .24 1.06 67% 25% 23% -6 +2 0.94 16% 1.6 .26 15% .40 92% .36
Jan
21		 American D- B- B- D C- 30% 36% 34% F D+ D- F F+ D+ B F C C+ D+ A+ C- C+ 45% 16% 39% C- C F F F A+ D F F+
0.98 64% 41% 31% +2 -3 1.00 25% 0.8 .19 19% .42 65% .28 1.04 60% 14% 35% -2 +1 1.00 38% 1.3 .48 28% .29 86% .25
Jan
24		 Boston University D- F C+ A+ C 41% 30% 30% D C B+ D+ B- F F F F C- F+ F A+ D 46% 15% 40% D- D A A+ A+ C- F D F
1.10 45% 44% 56% +7 -1 1.13 36% 1.0 .36 19% .20 58% .12 1.09 68% 86% 26% +7 +1 1.19 18% 0.6 .11 18% .45 74% .33
Jan
28		 Holy Cross C F A- A C 38% 32% 30% F D+ C- A B- A F+ B- D- F+ F F C F 35% 27% 38% C- F A+ F B F A A+ A+
1.19 48% 50% 41% +3 -2 1.05 28% 1.3 .36 9% .20 75% .15 1.12 68% 60% 33% +9 -1 1.18 7% 2.0 .14 11% .17 50% .08
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Lehigh D+ C A+ F D+ 46% 30% 24% D+ D+ C A+ A F+ B- A+ A- D+ B D F F 38% 15% 48% F F B F D+ A+ B- D- C+
1.07 57% 67% 8% -1 -1 0.98 34% 1.4 .48 20% .35 85% .30 1.08 50% 43% 52% +11 +1 1.25 18% 1.4 .25 25% .24 77% .19
Feb
4		 Army F+ B+ B- C- C+ 35% 33% 33% F C- A- F D F B C B- A- B B+ B B 22% 18% 60% A B+ B B+ B+ B F B F+
1.07 69% 40% 33% +4 -2 1.07 41% 0.8 .31 22% .38 74% .28 0.86 50% 25% 30% -8 -1 0.84 25% 0.8 .19 20% .35 67% .23
Feb
7		 Bucknell D+ C- A D- D 36% 26% 38% D+ D D- D+ D- A- C+ F+ C- A+ C+ D+ A+ A+ 31% 22% 47% B+ A+ A F B- D F B- F
1.06 58% 50% 30% +1 -1 1.02 26% 1.0 .26 14% .33 67% .22 0.80 53% 36% 13% -16 -1 0.67 19% 1.3 .24 18% .45 74% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.3 8.7 5.3 16.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 11.5 26.2 29.6 12.2 81.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.2 1.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.3 2.9 12.4 26.3 31.9 20.9 5.3 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 5.3    3.7 1.6
14-4 41.5% 8.7    2.8 5.8
13-5 7.2% 2.3    0.5 1.8
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.4% 16.4 7.0 9.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 5.3% 39.1% 39.1% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.5 3.2
14-4 20.9% 30.9% 30.9% 14.9 0.1 1.5 4.0 0.8 14.4
13-5 31.9% 26.4% 26.4% 15.2 0.0 0.8 4.9 2.7 23.5
12-6 26.3% 23.2% 23.2% 15.6 0.0 0.1 2.4 3.5 20.2
11-7 12.4% 19.7% 19.7% 15.8 0.0 0.6 1.9 10.0
10-8 2.9% 12.0% 12.0% 15.8 0.1 0.3 2.5
9-9 0.3% 15.5% 15.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.9% 25.9% 0.0% 15.2 74.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 14.1 0.5 15.6 59.9 24.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%
Lose Out 0.2%