Holy Cross
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.2#343
Expected Predictive Rating-17.2#348
Pace70.1#161
Improvement+0.6#132

Offense
Total Offense-6.3#337
First Shot-8.4#349
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#67
Layup/Dunks-0.8#194
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#261
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#244
Freethrows-3.7#345
Improvement-0.4#226

Defense
Total Defense-6.9#339
First Shot-6.9#343
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#178
Layups/Dunks-10.8#358
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#75
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#68
Freethrows-0.7#235
Improvement+1.0#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 3.7% 4.6% 3.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 56.2% 49.2% 61.3%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Away) - 41.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 45 - 146 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 125   @ Boston College L 55-85 5%     0 - 1 -24.3 -13.7 -11.2
  Nov 15, 2021 294   @ Quinnipiac L 68-76 20%     0 - 2 -12.3 -11.0 -0.7
  Nov 20, 2021 256   Air Force L 53-72 23%     0 - 3 -24.4 -16.9 -8.9
  Nov 21, 2021 236   Bryant L 62-78 19%     0 - 4 -19.8 -13.4 -6.3
  Nov 27, 2021 195   New Hampshire L 55-70 20%     0 - 5 -19.5 -14.3 -7.0
  Dec 01, 2021 348   @ Central Connecticut St. L 71-73 42%    
  Dec 04, 2021 244   @ La Salle L 64-76 13%    
  Dec 08, 2021 237   @ Fairfield L 62-74 12%    
  Dec 11, 2021 275   Siena L 66-70 35%    
  Dec 19, 2021 131   @ Harvard L 62-81 4%    
  Dec 22, 2021 220   @ Saint Joseph's L 70-84 11%    
  Jan 01, 2022 101   Navy L 60-75 9%    
  Jan 04, 2022 287   @ Loyola Maryland L 65-74 20%    
  Jan 07, 2022 272   Lafayette L 70-74 35%    
  Jan 10, 2022 313   @ Lehigh L 67-75 23%    
  Jan 13, 2022 320   American L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 16, 2022 111   @ Colgate L 66-86 4%    
  Jan 19, 2022 272   @ Lafayette L 67-77 18%    
  Jan 22, 2022 291   Bucknell L 74-77 38%    
  Jan 26, 2022 320   @ American L 68-75 26%    
  Jan 29, 2022 313   Lehigh L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 31, 2022 144   @ Boston University L 60-78 6%    
  Feb 05, 2022 249   @ Army L 66-78 15%    
  Feb 09, 2022 287   Loyola Maryland L 68-71 37%    
  Feb 12, 2022 291   @ Bucknell L 71-80 21%    
  Feb 16, 2022 144   Boston University L 63-75 14%    
  Feb 19, 2022 101   @ Navy L 57-78 3%    
  Feb 23, 2022 111   Colgate L 69-83 12%    
  Feb 26, 2022 249   Army L 69-75 31%    
Projected Record 5 - 24 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 1.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.8 2.5 0.7 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.3 3.0 6.2 3.6 0.6 0.0 13.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 5.5 8.5 5.3 0.7 0.0 21.2 9th
10th 3.2 9.6 13.3 12.3 5.3 1.0 0.0 44.7 10th
Total 3.2 9.7 14.4 18.0 16.8 14.1 9.2 6.1 4.8 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 17.5% 17.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.5% 0.5
10-8 1.0% 1.0
9-9 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.0
8-10 4.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 4.7
7-11 6.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.1
6-12 9.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.1
5-13 14.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.0
4-14 16.8% 16.8
3-15 18.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.0
2-16 14.4% 14.4
1-17 9.7% 9.7
0-18 3.2% 3.2
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%