Holy Cross
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.4#326
Expected Predictive Rating-9.8#326
Pace67.9#190
Improvement+1.3#35

Offense
Total Offense-6.4#337
First Shot-3.1#281
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#354
Layup/Dunks-2.0#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#234
Freethrows-2.8#350
Improvement+0.4#115

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#264
First Shot-2.4#254
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#246
Layups/Dunks-4.9#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#182
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#91
Freethrows+0.2#167
Improvement+1.0#52
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 19.7% 37.6% 10.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 1.0% 6.3%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Navy (Home) - 34.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 71 - 9
Quad 47 - 128 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 151   Siena L 68-75 24%     0 - 1 -8.9 -9.0 +0.5
  Nov 14, 2022 11   @ Creighton L 65-94 1%     0 - 2 -10.9 -0.8 -8.9
  Nov 19, 2022 340   Stonehill L 79-81 56%     0 - 3 -13.0 -1.8 -11.2
  Nov 21, 2022 132   @ Fordham L 53-67 10%     0 - 4 -9.3 -13.9 +4.4
  Nov 22, 2022 264   Illinois-Chicago L 66-89 35%     0 - 5 -28.5 -11.9 -15.3
  Nov 30, 2022 157   Harvard L 38-72 25%     0 - 6 -36.3 -30.7 -7.5
  Dec 03, 2022 329   Central Connecticut St. W 63-57 63%     1 - 6 -6.7 -13.5 +7.1
  Dec 07, 2022 133   Quinnipiac L 71-75 21%     1 - 7 -4.9 +0.0 -5.0
  Dec 10, 2022 252   @ Northeastern L 58-59 24%     1 - 8 -3.0 -8.1 +5.0
  Dec 19, 2022 272   @ New Hampshire L 60-78 27%     1 - 9 -21.0 -7.0 -15.8
  Dec 22, 2022 323   @ Sacred Heart L 62-66 39%     1 - 10 -10.4 -9.8 -0.9
  Dec 30, 2022 295   Bucknell W 60-58 52%     2 - 10 1 - 0 -7.9 -15.4 +7.6
  Jan 02, 2023 212   @ Navy W 74-63 17%     3 - 10 2 - 0 +11.6 +7.0 +5.5
  Jan 05, 2023 236   American L 68-73 OT 39%     3 - 11 2 - 1 -11.5 -12.0 +0.7
  Jan 08, 2023 333   Loyola Maryland W 63-55 64%     4 - 11 3 - 1 -5.0 -2.7 -0.8
  Jan 11, 2023 258   @ Lehigh L 58-76 25%     4 - 12 3 - 2 -20.4 -15.3 -4.9
  Jan 14, 2023 261   @ Lafayette L 48-62 26%     4 - 13 3 - 3 -16.6 -17.3 -1.0
  Jan 18, 2023 118   Colgate L 71-77 19%     4 - 14 3 - 4 -6.0 -2.9 -3.4
  Jan 21, 2023 295   @ Bucknell W 80-73 32%     5 - 14 4 - 4 +2.5 +1.5 +0.7
  Jan 25, 2023 258   Lehigh L 68-74 44%     5 - 15 4 - 5 -13.8 -9.1 -4.6
  Jan 28, 2023 237   @ Army L 55-66 22%     5 - 16 4 - 6 -12.1 -15.7 +2.7
  Feb 01, 2023 276   @ Boston University W 82-70 28%     6 - 16 5 - 6 +8.8 +6.4 +2.1
  Feb 04, 2023 212   Navy L 63-68 35%    
  Feb 06, 2023 261   Lafayette L 60-61 46%    
  Feb 11, 2023 236   @ American L 61-69 21%    
  Feb 15, 2023 276   Boston University L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 18, 2023 118   @ Colgate L 64-79 8%    
  Feb 22, 2023 333   @ Loyola Maryland L 64-66 42%    
  Feb 25, 2023 237   Army L 69-72 41%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 4.2 2.0 0.1 6.7 4th
5th 0.3 5.4 6.7 0.5 12.9 5th
6th 0.1 5.5 12.7 2.4 0.0 20.7 6th
7th 0.1 5.6 18.1 6.8 0.2 30.7 7th
8th 2.2 10.9 5.7 0.2 19.0 8th
9th 3.0 2.6 0.1 5.7 9th
10th 0.6 0.1 0.7 10th
Total 6.0 19.2 29.7 25.4 14.3 4.7 0.8 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.8% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 4.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.6
9-9 14.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.2
8-10 25.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 25.4
7-11 29.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 29.6
6-12 19.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.2
5-13 6.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.0% 0.1% 16.0 0.1