Holy Cross
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.2 #324
Expected Predictive Rating -7.9 #290
Pace 64.4 #298
Improvement -2.1 #278

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #310 C- F+ C- C- D-
Defense #313 D C+ D B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #344 1.09 #267 -5.7 #343
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #53 0.88 #45 +4.3 #23
Three Pointers 42% #160 0.99 #222 -0.1 #186
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #227 -1.5 #227
Freethrows 0.27 #272 74% #138 0.20 #238
Second Chance 20.8% #358 0.96 #291 0.20 #358
Turnovers 17.4% #246
Total Offense -5.3 #310

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #35 1.31 #336 -6.8 #356
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #249 0.94 #360 -0.7 #237
Three Pointers 37% #282 0.98 #123 +2.6 #87
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #325 -5.0 #325
Freethrows 0.26 #64 74% #289 0.20 #93
Second Chance 29.2% #123 1.05 #188 0.31 #145
Turnovers 13.7% #328
Total Defense -4.9 #313

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.9% #333 1.5% #304
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.1% #178 8.2% #324
Possession Length 18.5 #294 17.5 #203
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #305 0.15 #125
Improvement -0.6 #214 -1.4 #272

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 3.1% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.3% 4.8% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 22.1% 45.1% 17.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 17.4% 6.3% 19.7%
First Four1.8% 2.6% 1.6%
First Round1.0% 1.6% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colgate (Away) - 16.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 49 - 1311 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 69 @Providence L 79 - 89 4% -10  0 - 1 +1 -1 B- F D+ +3 B B+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 13 @BYU L 53 - 98 1% -28  0 - 2 -23 -12 F+ D F+ -10 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 103 @Utah L 69 - 87 6% -9  0 - 3 -10 -2 C- F+ B+ -9 D+ C+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 236 Hampton W 67 - 61 28% +0  1 - 3 +2 +6 C+ C+ F -3 C- C- C
 Tue, Nov 18 267 @Brown L 49 - 68 24% -12  1 - 4 -22 -14 D+ F F -11 F F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 278 @Sacred Heart L 66 - 79 26% -9  1 - 5 -17 -8 C- F F -9 F B+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 172 Siena L 69 - 73 27% -1  1 - 6 -8 -0 A F D+ -8 F A+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 261 Northeastern W 76 - 59 43% +13  2 - 6 +9 +0 B F B+ +9 A C+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 196 @Fordham W 70 - 69 15% -7  3 - 6 +2 +6 C+ A F+ -4 D C D+
 Tue, Dec 16 237 Dartmouth L 64 - 89 39% -11  3 - 7 -32 -10 D- F D+ -23 F C- B+
 Sat, Dec 20 179 @Harvard L 53 - 81 14% -16  3 - 8 -26 -11 F D A -19 F F C
 Wed, Dec 31 321 Bucknell W 65 - 58 61% +7  4 - 8 1 - 0 -6 -4 D+ F D+ -1 F+ B A
 Sat, Jan 3 183 Navy L 58 - 65 30% -6  4 - 9 1 - 1 -12 -7 F A+ D- -6 D A D+
 Wed, Jan 7 301 @Lehigh L 58 - 66 32% -5  4 - 10 1 - 2 -13 -11 D- F B- -4 D- C C+
 Sat, Jan 10 220 @American W 84 - 73 18% +3  5 - 10 2 - 2 +10 +11 B+ D A- -0 A- D+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 341 Army W 82 - 75 65% +7  6 - 10 3 - 2 -7 +2 A- F B- -9 C- C D-
 Sat, Jan 17 314 @Lafayette L 55 - 74 35% -12  6 - 11 3 - 3 -25 -15 F F D- -11 D+ F+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 183 @Navy L 68 - 85 14% -6  6 - 12 3 - 4 -16 +3 B- C F+ -20 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 220 American L 67 - 76 36% -8  6 - 13 3 - 5 -16 -3 B F F+ -14 D+ C F
 Wed, Jan 28 210 @Colgate L 67 - 77 17%
 Sat, Jan 31 341 @Army L 72 - 74 42%
 Mon, Feb 2 279 Boston University L 70 - 71 48%
 Sat, Feb 7 301 Lehigh W 70 - 69 54%
 Wed, Feb 11 210 Colgate L 70 - 74 35%
 Sun, Feb 15 320 @Loyola Maryland L 71 - 74 38%
 Wed, Feb 18 314 Lafayette W 71 - 69 57%
 Sun, Feb 22 321 @Bucknell L 67 - 70 39%
 Wed, Feb 25 279 @Boston University L 67 - 73 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 320 Loyola Maryland W 74 - 71 60%
Totals 10 - 19 7 - 11 -10 -5 C- F+ C- -5 D C+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 5.1 4.3 1.0 0.1 12.1 4th
5th 1.4 8.4 5.8 1.1 0.0 16.7 5th
6th 0.6 7.9 7.9 1.3 0.0 17.7 6th
7th 0.2 4.8 9.5 1.7 0.0 16.2 7th
8th 0.0 2.0 8.6 3.2 0.1 13.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 6.1 4.6 0.3 0.0 12.1 9th
10th 0.8 3.4 3.3 0.4 0.0 7.9 10th
Total 0.8 4.4 11.6 19.1 22.4 19.7 12.5 6.6 2.3 0.6 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 3.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 5.8% 5.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 2.3% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.2
10-8 6.6% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.3
9-9 12.5% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.4 12.1
8-10 19.7% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.6 19.1
7-11 22.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 22.1
6-12 19.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 19.0
5-13 11.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 11.5
4-14 4.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.4
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 16.0 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%