Navy
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#192
Expected Predictive Rating-4.3#231
Pace67.4#245
Improvement-3.2#351

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#197
First Shot-0.8#202
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#195
Layup/Dunks+0.9#146
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#124
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#329
Freethrows+2.9#48
Improvement-0.2#199

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#196
First Shot-2.3#254
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#101
Layups/Dunks+4.7#47
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#359
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#271
Freethrows+0.9#130
Improvement-2.9#355
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.3% 24.4% 19.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 87.1% 90.6% 74.3%
.500 or above in Conference 89.8% 91.1% 85.2%
Conference Champion 32.4% 34.5% 24.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.7% 1.8%
First Four4.9% 4.6% 6.2%
First Round21.1% 22.4% 16.3%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware St. (Away) - 78.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 417 - 619 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 259 @Presbyterian W 76-55 51%     1 - 0 +18.6 +10.2 +10.3
  Fri, Nov 7 72 Yale L 68-97 26%     1 - 1 -24.4 -12.5 -9.7
  Tue, Nov 11 97 @Penn St. L 71-80 17%     1 - 2 -0.9 +1.4 -2.5
  Tue, Nov 18 22 @North Carolina L 61-73 4%     1 - 3 +6.1 -3.0 +9.1
  Sat, Nov 22 351 NJIT W 86-70 89%     2 - 3 +0.8 +10.1 -9.0
  Wed, Nov 26 355 Gardner-Webb W 84-51 85%     3 - 3 +19.6 +9.8 +11.5
  Fri, Nov 28 100 @UNC Wilmington L 57-87 17%     3 - 4 -22.0 -8.9 -15.4
  Sat, Nov 29 243 SE Louisiana L 65-69 59%     3 - 5 -8.6 -1.8 -7.1
  Wed, Dec 3 356 @Delaware St. W 73-65 78%    
  Sun, Dec 7 327 Air Force W 72-62 84%    
  Fri, Dec 19 364 Coppin St. W 80-62 95%    
  Wed, Dec 31 234 Boston University W 73-68 68%    
  Sat, Jan 3 330 @Holy Cross W 73-68 67%    
  Wed, Jan 7 307 Bucknell W 76-67 79%    
  Sat, Jan 10 334 Lafayette W 75-64 84%    
  Mon, Jan 12 248 @American L 72-73 49%    
  Sat, Jan 17 297 @Lehigh W 71-69 59%    
  Wed, Jan 21 330 Holy Cross W 76-65 83%    
  Sat, Jan 24 341 Army W 78-66 86%    
  Wed, Jan 28 234 @Boston University L 70-71 47%    
  Sat, Jan 31 309 Loyola Maryland W 76-67 79%    
  Wed, Feb 4 334 @Lafayette W 72-67 67%    
  Sat, Feb 7 248 American W 76-70 69%    
  Mon, Feb 9 307 @Bucknell W 73-70 60%    
  Sat, Feb 14 172 @Colgate L 70-74 36%    
  Wed, Feb 18 297 Lehigh W 74-66 78%    
  Sat, Feb 21 341 @Army W 75-69 70%    
  Wed, Feb 25 309 @Loyola Maryland W 73-70 61%    
  Sat, Feb 28 172 Colgate W 73-71 57%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.3 8.4 8.2 5.4 2.3 0.6 32.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.1 7.3 7.4 3.9 1.1 0.1 23.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.5 6.4 4.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 4.8 3.1 0.6 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.2 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.8 4.9 7.6 10.0 13.1 14.6 14.2 12.5 9.3 5.5 2.3 0.6 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.3    2.3 0.0
16-2 98.4% 5.4    5.0 0.4
15-3 88.4% 8.2    6.7 1.6 0.0
14-4 67.3% 8.4    5.2 2.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 37.2% 5.3    2.2 2.3 0.7 0.1
12-6 13.0% 1.9    0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.4% 32.4 22.3 8.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 58.1% 58.1% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-1 2.3% 52.8% 52.8% 13.6 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.1
16-2 5.5% 44.3% 44.3% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.1 3.1
15-3 9.3% 37.3% 37.3% 14.8 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.5 5.8
14-4 12.5% 33.3% 33.3% 15.2 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.4 8.3
13-5 14.2% 26.4% 26.4% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.0 10.5
12-6 14.6% 21.1% 21.1% 15.7 0.0 0.8 2.3 11.6
11-7 13.1% 17.2% 17.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.0 10.8
10-8 10.0% 13.3% 13.3% 15.9 0.1 1.2 8.7
9-9 7.6% 10.2% 10.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8 6.8
8-10 4.9% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.3 4.7
7-11 2.8% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.1 2.6
6-12 1.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.3% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 23.3% 23.3% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.5 7.9 10.6 76.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.1 16.7 53.6 29.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%