Navy
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#204
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#215
Pace67.4#240
Improvement-3.0#342

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#248
First Shot-2.2#238
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#230
Layup/Dunks-0.8#208
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#103
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#339
Freethrows+3.6#26
Improvement-2.0#326

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#162
First Shot-0.8#204
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#133
Layups/Dunks+4.6#45
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#360
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#259
Freethrows+1.4#91
Improvement-1.1#279
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.4% 21.6% 16.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 89.1% 89.8% 72.2%
.500 or above in Conference 88.0% 88.3% 81.4%
Conference Champion 29.5% 29.9% 19.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.2% 2.5%
First Four4.7% 4.7% 6.4%
First Round19.1% 19.4% 14.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Home) - 95.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 418 - 619 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 261 @Presbyterian W 76-55 48%     1 - 0 +18.5 +10.2 +10.2
  Fri, Nov 7 77 Yale L 68-97 24%     1 - 1 -24.6 -12.8 -9.6
  Tue, Nov 11 111 @Penn St. L 71-80 18%     1 - 2 -2.3 +0.1 -2.5
  Tue, Nov 18 20 @North Carolina L 61-73 3%     1 - 3 +6.5 -2.5 +8.9
  Sat, Nov 22 347 NJIT W 86-70 87%     2 - 3 +0.8 +9.9 -8.8
  Wed, Nov 26 356 Gardner-Webb W 84-51 86%     3 - 3 +18.7 +8.2 +12.1
  Fri, Nov 28 107 @UNC Wilmington L 57-87 18%     3 - 4 -23.1 -9.5 -15.8
  Sat, Nov 29 273 SE Louisiana L 65-69 61%     3 - 5 -9.8 -2.6 -7.5
  Wed, Dec 3 351 @Delaware St. W 66-59 75%     4 - 5 -2.9 -8.8 +5.8
  Sun, Dec 7 329 Air Force W 61-56 82%     5 - 5 -7.8 -9.8 +2.5
  Fri, Dec 19 364 Coppin St. W 79-61 96%    
  Wed, Dec 31 280 Boston University W 73-67 73%    
  Sat, Jan 3 288 @Holy Cross W 70-69 54%    
  Wed, Jan 7 300 Bucknell W 73-65 77%    
  Sat, Jan 10 323 Lafayette W 74-65 81%    
  Mon, Jan 12 242 @American L 71-72 46%    
  Sat, Jan 17 308 @Lehigh W 71-69 58%    
  Wed, Jan 21 288 Holy Cross W 73-66 74%    
  Sat, Jan 24 340 Army W 77-66 85%    
  Wed, Jan 28 280 @Boston University W 70-69 51%    
  Sat, Jan 31 330 Loyola Maryland W 77-67 83%    
  Wed, Feb 4 323 @Lafayette W 71-68 62%    
  Sat, Feb 7 242 American W 74-69 66%    
  Mon, Feb 9 300 @Bucknell W 70-68 57%    
  Sat, Feb 14 178 @Colgate L 68-73 34%    
  Wed, Feb 18 308 Lehigh W 74-66 77%    
  Sat, Feb 21 340 @Army W 74-69 69%    
  Wed, Feb 25 330 @Loyola Maryland W 74-70 65%    
  Sat, Feb 28 178 Colgate W 71-70 55%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.8 7.8 7.2 4.1 1.5 0.4 29.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.5 7.6 7.1 3.5 0.8 0.1 23.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.2 6.7 4.4 1.2 0.1 16.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 5.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.2 0.2 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.2 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.4 5.4 8.4 11.3 13.7 14.8 14.2 11.4 8.1 4.2 1.5 0.4 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
16-2 98.2% 4.1    3.9 0.3
15-3 89.5% 7.2    6.0 1.2 0.0
14-4 68.2% 7.8    4.9 2.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 41.1% 5.8    2.6 2.5 0.7 0.0 0.0
12-6 15.5% 2.3    0.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.5% 29.5 19.8 7.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 46.8% 46.8% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
17-1 1.5% 43.8% 43.8% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.9
16-2 4.2% 43.1% 43.1% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 2.4
15-3 8.1% 36.2% 36.2% 14.9 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.4 5.1
14-4 11.4% 30.9% 30.9% 15.3 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.2 7.9
13-5 14.2% 25.9% 25.9% 15.5 0.1 1.5 2.1 10.5
12-6 14.8% 22.5% 22.5% 15.7 0.0 0.9 2.3 11.5
11-7 13.7% 16.4% 16.4% 15.8 0.0 0.4 1.9 11.4
10-8 11.3% 13.6% 13.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.4 9.8
9-9 8.4% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8 7.6
8-10 5.4% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4 5.0
7-11 3.4% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.2 3.2
6-12 2.0% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.1 1.9
5-13 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.3% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.4% 21.4% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 7.4 10.9 78.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.3 7.8 51.0 41.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%