Navy
Patriot League
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.5#101
Expected Predictive Rating+11.9#50
Pace66.2#254
Improvement+1.1#84

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#181
First Shot+2.1#122
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#307
Layup/Dunks+1.8#115
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#45
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#250
Freethrows-0.3#201
Improvement-1.7#326

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#60
First Shot+2.9#87
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#71
Layups/Dunks-2.3#256
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#37
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#62
Freethrows-0.5#218
Improvement+2.9#12
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.1% 38.5% 27.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 1.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.5
.500 or above 99.0% 99.1% 97.3%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 98.6% 98.3%
Conference Champion 48.2% 48.8% 33.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
First Round37.8% 38.2% 27.3%
Second Round7.2% 7.2% 6.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 1.8% 2.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Home) - 96.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 22 - 3
Quad 34 - 26 - 5
Quad 417 - 223 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 40   @ Virginia W 66-58 19%     1 - 0 +21.7 +7.8 +14.6
  Nov 12, 2021 27   Virginia Tech L 57-77 29%     1 - 1 -9.8 -4.2 -7.7
  Nov 15, 2021 36   @ Louisville L 60-77 17%     1 - 2 -2.5 -2.4 -0.3
  Nov 20, 2021 248   Radford W 47-33 81%     2 - 2 +9.4 -22.8 +33.1
  Nov 21, 2021 105   @ Furman W 77-66 39%     3 - 2 +18.3 +7.0 +11.4
  Nov 27, 2021 299   @ Mount St. Mary's W 67-40 80%     4 - 2 +22.6 -1.5 +25.7
  Dec 01, 2021 332   William & Mary W 76-57 96%    
  Dec 07, 2021 115   @ George Mason L 66-68 44%    
  Dec 12, 2021 255   @ Marist W 67-60 72%    
  Dec 22, 2021 164   Towson W 68-61 76%    
  Jan 01, 2022 343   @ Holy Cross W 75-60 91%    
  Jan 04, 2022 144   Boston University W 68-62 71%    
  Jan 07, 2022 291   Bucknell W 77-63 92%    
  Jan 10, 2022 272   @ Lafayette W 71-63 74%    
  Jan 13, 2022 111   Colgate W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 16, 2022 144   @ Boston University L 64-65 50%    
  Jan 19, 2022 313   Lehigh W 74-58 92%    
  Jan 22, 2022 249   Army W 73-61 86%    
  Jan 26, 2022 291   @ Bucknell W 74-66 78%    
  Jan 29, 2022 320   American W 75-59 93%    
  Feb 02, 2022 313   @ Lehigh W 71-61 81%    
  Feb 05, 2022 287   @ Loyola Maryland W 69-61 76%    
  Feb 07, 2022 272   Lafayette W 74-60 89%    
  Feb 12, 2022 249   @ Army W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 16, 2022 320   @ American W 72-62 82%    
  Feb 19, 2022 343   Holy Cross W 78-57 97%    
  Feb 23, 2022 287   Loyola Maryland W 72-58 89%    
  Feb 26, 2022 111   @ Colgate L 70-72 42%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.7 6.0 12.0 14.9 10.4 2.9 48.2 1st
2nd 0.4 3.0 7.0 10.0 6.6 1.2 28.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 2.8 4.6 4.5 1.6 0.2 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.0 5.5 8.8 13.4 17.7 18.8 16.2 10.4 2.9 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.9    2.9
17-1 100.0% 10.4    10.0 0.4
16-2 92.3% 14.9    12.2 2.8 0.0
15-3 63.6% 12.0    7.2 4.4 0.4
14-4 34.1% 6.0    2.3 2.9 0.8 0.0
13-5 13.0% 1.7    0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 48.2% 48.2 35.0 11.4 1.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.9% 67.8% 57.7% 10.1% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 23.9%
17-1 10.4% 63.8% 60.6% 3.2% 11.8 0.2 0.4 1.6 3.2 1.3 0.1 3.8 8.0%
16-2 16.2% 49.4% 48.9% 0.5% 12.5 0.4 4.0 2.9 0.7 0.0 8.2 1.0%
15-3 18.8% 40.6% 40.6% 12.9 0.1 2.0 4.0 1.4 0.1 11.2
14-4 17.7% 34.9% 34.9% 13.4 0.7 2.8 2.3 0.4 11.5
13-5 13.4% 29.1% 29.1% 13.8 0.1 1.5 1.7 0.6 0.0 9.5
12-6 8.8% 23.6% 23.6% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.0 6.7
11-7 5.5% 16.4% 16.4% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 4.6
10-8 3.0% 16.4% 16.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.5
9-9 1.8% 12.6% 12.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.6
8-10 0.8% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.8
7-11 0.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-12 0.2% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 38.1% 37.4% 0.7% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.5 10.4 12.9 7.8 2.7 0.2 61.9 1.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 7.1 3.5 9.7 14.5 15.1 21.4 6.3 10.1 6.6 9.7 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 40.8% 9.7 8.5 7.0 15.5 9.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 40.0% 10.9 1.8 18.2 1.8 18.2