Army
Patriot League
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#237
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#260
Pace70.8#107
Improvement+1.7#18

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#192
First Shot+1.4#126
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#310
Layup/Dunks+3.9#44
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#337
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#151
Freethrows-0.2#187
Improvement+0.1#176

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#274
First Shot-3.0#272
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#231
Layups/Dunks-3.2#300
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#116
Freethrows+0.2#168
Improvement+1.6#13
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 6.3% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 58.6% 76.6% 39.7%
.500 or above in Conference 96.1% 99.4% 92.6%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.9% 2.6% 3.1%
First Round4.0% 5.0% 3.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Away) - 51.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 32 - 52 - 6
Quad 413 - 815 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2022 340   Stonehill L 77-82 82%     0 - 1 -18.8 -7.9 -10.4
  Nov 16, 2022 151   @ Siena W 96-94 OT 24%     1 - 1 +5.6 +11.2 -6.0
  Nov 19, 2022 305   @ William & Mary L 67-76 55%     1 - 2 -14.1 -8.6 -5.7
  Nov 20, 2022 178   Radford L 75-90 36%     1 - 3 -15.3 +2.2 -17.4
  Nov 24, 2022 115   Princeton L 66-74 26%     1 - 4 -5.0 -7.4 +2.5
  Nov 26, 2022 294   Manhattan L 71-72 62%     1 - 5 -8.0 -3.0 -5.0
  Dec 03, 2022 284   Wagner W 75-64 70%     2 - 5 +1.7 +1.2 +0.7
  Dec 07, 2022 320   NJIT W 63-62 77%     3 - 5 -10.7 -9.8 -0.9
  Dec 10, 2022 198   @ Rhode Island L 67-77 31%     3 - 6 -8.7 -2.6 -6.3
  Dec 18, 2022 313   @ Stony Brook L 59-66 56%     3 - 7 -12.4 -11.6 -1.5
  Dec 20, 2022 329   @ Central Connecticut St. W 66-55 63%     4 - 7 +3.8 -4.5 +9.2
  Dec 30, 2022 258   Lehigh W 80-78 65%     5 - 7 1 - 0 -5.8 +8.4 -14.1
  Jan 02, 2023 261   @ Lafayette W 82-65 45%     6 - 7 2 - 0 +14.4 +19.7 -3.6
  Jan 05, 2023 333   @ Loyola Maryland W 78-55 64%     7 - 7 3 - 0 +15.5 +6.3 +10.2
  Jan 09, 2023 118   Colgate L 75-77 35%     7 - 8 3 - 1 -2.0 -0.1 -2.0
  Jan 11, 2023 236   American W 72-60 60%     8 - 8 4 - 1 +5.5 +3.1 +3.6
  Jan 14, 2023 276   @ Boston University W 83-74 47%     9 - 8 5 - 1 +5.8 +16.8 -10.2
  Jan 18, 2023 295   Bucknell L 66-68 72%     9 - 9 5 - 2 -11.9 -10.1 -1.9
  Jan 21, 2023 212   Navy L 71-77 54%     9 - 10 5 - 3 -10.8 -6.9 -3.7
  Jan 25, 2023 236   @ American L 61-63 39%     9 - 11 5 - 4 -3.1 -6.8 +3.6
  Jan 28, 2023 326   Holy Cross W 66-55 78%     10 - 11 6 - 4 -1.1 -6.2 +5.9
  Feb 01, 2023 258   @ Lehigh W 71-69 44%     11 - 11 7 - 4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3
  Feb 04, 2023 295   @ Bucknell W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 08, 2023 333   Loyola Maryland W 74-65 81%    
  Feb 11, 2023 212   @ Navy L 68-72 32%    
  Feb 15, 2023 118   @ Colgate L 72-81 18%    
  Feb 18, 2023 261   Lafayette W 66-62 66%    
  Feb 22, 2023 276   Boston University W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 25, 2023 326   @ Holy Cross W 72-69 59%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 2.4 13.3 16.5 6.7 0.8 39.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 12.0 14.9 4.0 0.3 0.0 32.5 3rd
4th 0.2 5.1 9.1 1.8 0.0 16.1 4th
5th 1.0 4.9 1.4 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 1.2 0.1 3.2 6th
7th 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.4 3.5 12.5 24.9 30.0 20.6 7.1 1.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 19.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.0% 13.0% 13.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-5 7.1% 9.7% 9.7% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 6.4
12-6 20.6% 7.2% 7.2% 15.7 0.0 0.4 1.1 19.1
11-7 30.0% 5.7% 5.7% 15.9 0.1 1.6 28.2
10-8 24.9% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9 24.0
9-9 12.5% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.4 12.1
8-10 3.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 3.5
7-11 0.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.4 94.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 13.0% 14.7 0.4 3.8 7.5 1.3
Lose Out 0.4% 1.9% 16.0 1.9