Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
93 New Mexico St. 36.7%   13   4 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 7 14 - 4 +5.7      +4.4 61 +1.3 126 61.5 340 +11.7 49 0.0 2
126 Grand Canyon 17.0%   4 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 6 +2.7      +0.8 148 +1.8 105 61.9 336 +3.3 130 0.0 2
148 Abilene Christian 12.5%   1 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 9 12 - 6 +1.5      -1.2 208 +2.7 94 71.7 109 +1.6 157 0.0 2
153 Stephen F. Austin 13.2%   2 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 10 11 - 7 +1.2      +0.9 145 +0.3 163 72.3 96 +4.2 120 0.0 1
155 Utah Valley 10.5%   5 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 7 +0.9      +0.6 160 +0.3 162 66.3 251 +7.8 76 0.0 2
175 Seattle 7.2%   5 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 10 11 - 7 -0.5      +0.4 164 -0.9 204 71.5 119 +3.4 129 0.0 2
180 Tarleton St. 0.4%   0 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 15 11 - 7 -0.8      -1.7 222 +0.9 138 59.9 348 -4.8 242 0.0 2
216 California Baptist 0.5%   4 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 8 -2.4      +0.9 146 -3.2 279 71.2 125 +9.4 66 0.0 2
217 Sam Houston St. 3.7%   1 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 9 -2.5      -1.8 227 -0.7 197 69.0 193 -5.9 259 0.0 2
281 UT Rio Grande Valley 0.5%   2 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 18 6 - 12 -6.6      -1.3 211 -5.3 321 75.1 55 -2.5 212 0.0 2
310 Dixie St. 0.0%   1 - 5 0 - 0 7 - 20 5 - 13 -8.3      -3.0 268 -5.3 323 80.3 17 -6.7 269 0.0 2
318 Lamar 0.2%   0 - 6 0 - 0 6 - 23 5 - 13 -8.9      -2.5 254 -6.4 334 69.3 183 -16.1 345 0.0 2
355 Chicago St. 0.0%   2 - 3 0 - 0 4 - 27 1 - 17 -18.2      -9.5 354 -8.7 353 72.9 90 -5.0 244 0.0 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
New Mexico St. 2.5 43.6 19.6 12.8 9.2 5.2 3.6 3.2 1.9 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.1
Grand Canyon 3.8 22.2 17.1 14.7 12.3 10.5 7.7 5.3 4.7 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
Abilene Christian 4.4 15.7 15.8 14.0 12.8 10.1 8.7 7.3 6.5 4.3 2.8 1.2 0.7 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 4.4 14.0 15.5 13.3 12.9 11.4 10.1 8.3 6.0 4.3 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1
Utah Valley 5.2 9.9 10.4 10.7 11.9 11.3 11.8 10.2 9.6 7.4 4.4 1.7 0.7 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 4.4 14.0 15.5 13.3 12.9 11.4 10.1 8.3 6.0 4.3 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1
Seattle 5.3 7.2 10.5 11.5 13.6 12.1 12.0 10.5 9.4 7.3 3.3 2.2 0.6 0.0
Tarleton St. 5.3 7.8 10.8 12.5 10.8 13.3 10.4 10.0 9.4 7.8 4.2 2.0 1.1 0.1
California Baptist 6.3 3.6 7.0 8.2 9.6 10.2 12.2 12.4 11.9 11.2 7.6 3.9 2.1 0.1
Sam Houston St. 6.9 3.8 5.0 6.7 8.2 9.7 9.5 11.5 12.2 12.9 11.1 6.1 3.2 0.3
UT Rio Grande Valley 9.2 0.5 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.4 4.8 7.9 9.7 15.4 19.3 17.6 13.7 2.3
Dixie St. 10.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.5 4.4 6.0 9.8 18.8 25.3 24.4 5.2
Lamar 10.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.1 3.7 6.9 11.2 18.3 24.9 24.8 4.5
Chicago St. 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 5.7 18.0 74.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
New Mexico St. 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.5 5.1 7.5 11.6 14.9 16.1 16.8 12.8 7.4 2.8
Grand Canyon 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.7 5.9 9.5 14.3 14.4 14.3 12.9 9.4 6.7 2.5 0.6
Abilene Christian 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.7 3.4 6.4 8.1 11.2 13.7 14.1 12.7 11.4 8.4 4.3 1.6 0.3
Stephen F. Austin 11 - 7 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.2 3.9 5.8 9.1 12.8 13.9 14.5 13.0 10.4 7.4 3.5 1.2 0.4
Utah Valley 11 - 7 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.9 3.5 6.7 9.6 12.0 13.1 14.4 12.8 10.2 7.2 4.7 2.0 0.9 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 11 - 7 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.2 3.9 5.8 9.1 12.8 13.9 14.5 13.0 10.4 7.4 3.5 1.2 0.4
Seattle 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.8 6.3 9.5 11.7 15.0 14.7 13.8 11.1 6.8 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1
Tarleton St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.7 6.6 9.8 11.2 13.3 14.7 13.2 10.7 6.9 4.3 1.8 0.4 0.1
California Baptist 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 4.7 6.9 9.4 12.4 13.6 14.9 12.0 10.2 7.0 4.0 1.8 0.5 0.3 0.0
Sam Houston St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.9 3.3 6.3 8.8 11.3 12.6 13.3 11.9 10.2 8.6 5.4 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1
UT Rio Grande Valley 6 - 12 0.3 1.3 4.4 8.2 11.8 13.8 13.5 14.2 11.2 8.8 5.3 3.7 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.0
Dixie St. 5 - 13 0.8 4.1 8.7 14.0 15.8 15.9 14.0 10.6 7.1 4.1 2.8 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Lamar 5 - 13 0.8 3.7 7.9 13.4 16.5 16.3 14.3 10.6 7.7 4.1 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Chicago St. 1 - 17 29.5 30.5 21.2 11.2 4.9 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.2




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
New Mexico St. 43.6% 30.2 10.3 2.6 0.4 0.1
Grand Canyon 22.2% 13.5 6.3 2.1 0.3 0.1
Abilene Christian 15.7% 8.5 5.6 1.2 0.3 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 14.0% 7.5 4.8 1.4 0.3 0.1
Utah Valley 9.9% 5.4 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 14.0% 7.5 4.8 1.4 0.3 0.1
Seattle 7.2% 3.7 2.4 1.0 0.1 0.1
Tarleton St. 7.8% 3.9 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.1
California Baptist 3.6% 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1
Sam Houston St. 3.8% 1.9 1.1 0.7 0.1
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.5% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Dixie St. 0.1% 0.1 0.1
Lamar 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.1
Chicago St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
New Mexico St. 36.7% 34.7% 2.0% 13   0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.6 4.6 10.8 10.8 5.0 1.3 0.1 63.3 3.1%
Grand Canyon 17.0% 16.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.7 5.5 3.5 0.9 83.0 0.2%
Abilene Christian 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 4.8 2.9 0.9 87.5 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 13.2% 13.1% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.4 4.1 4.4 2.5 0.5 86.8 0.2%
Utah Valley 10.5% 10.3% 0.2% 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.4 3.7 2.3 0.4 89.5 0.2%
Stephen F. Austin 13.2% 13.1% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.4 4.1 4.4 2.5 0.5 86.8 0.2%
Seattle 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.7 1.0 92.8 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.6 0.0%
California Baptist 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.5 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.6 0.9 96.3 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.5 0.0%
Dixie St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Lamar 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
New Mexico St. 36.7% 1.4% 36.0% 8.8% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 17.0% 0.3% 16.8% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 12.5% 0.0% 12.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 13.2% 0.2% 13.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 10.5% 0.2% 10.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 13.2% 0.2% 13.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 7.2% 0.2% 7.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 3.7% 0.5% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dixie St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.5 2.5
1st Round 99.4% 1.0 0.6 97.9 1.5
2nd Round 16.5% 0.2 83.6 16.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 4.4% 0.0 95.6 4.4
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0