Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
82 Sam Houston St. 35.6%   12   13 - 5 7 - 3 19 - 7 13 - 5 +6.6      +1.9 118 +4.6 57 63.3 309 +8.8 59 +4.9 4
99 Utah Valley 19.9%   14 - 6 8 - 2 19 - 9 13 - 5 +4.7      +1.2 137 +3.5 79 70.4 114 +7.5 71 +8.0 2
114 Southern Utah 11.8%   12 - 7 8 - 2 17 - 10 13 - 5 +3.1      +3.0 91 +0.1 167 76.8 24 +4.8 99 +8.4 1
116 Grand Canyon 10.9%   12 - 8 5 - 4 18 - 11 11 - 7 +2.8      +3.0 90 -0.2 181 62.6 320 +3.0 126 +2.1 6
135 Stephen F. Austin 7.8%   12 - 8 7 - 3 17 - 11 12 - 6 +1.8      +0.4 162 +1.4 130 71.9 84 +1.8 137 +4.9 5
142 Seattle 7.0%   14 - 7 7 - 3 18 - 11 11 - 7 +1.6      -1.4 224 +3.0 93 72.2 81 +4.4 109 +5.2 3
156 California Baptist 5.0%   12 - 10 5 - 5 16 - 14 9 - 9 +0.5      -1.1 210 +1.6 124 63.0 314 -0.9 188 -0.1 8
184 New Mexico St. 3.2%   5 - 14 1 - 9 9 - 18 5 - 13 -0.7      +0.4 161 -1.1 212 70.4 115 -4.0 242 -11.5 13
187 Tarleton St. 0.1%   9 - 10 5 - 4 13 - 15 9 - 9 -1.0      -1.3 220 +0.3 158 67.3 205 +1.5 143 +1.3 7
211 Utah Tech 0.2%   7 - 12 2 - 7 11 - 17 6 - 12 -2.1      -2.2 244 +0.1 168 75.0 36 -2.9 224 -6.6 10
218 Abilene Christian 1.7%   8 - 11 4 - 6 11 - 16 7 - 11 -2.3      -0.4 190 -1.9 236 73.0 64 -3.1 229 -2.7 9
274 Texas Arlington 0.3%   4 - 15 2 - 7 6 - 22 4 - 14 -5.8      -3.9 298 -1.9 237 64.5 282 -6.4 280 -7.4 12
279 UT Rio Grande Valley 0.3%   8 - 12 2 - 8 11 - 17 5 - 13 -6.3      -2.0 239 -4.3 304 80.1 5 -4.3 250 -6.7 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Sam Houston St. 2.2 38.5 29.2 16.6 8.8 4.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Utah Valley 2.0 51.6 22.6 13.0 7.1 3.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 2.6 31.5 23.5 20.5 12.7 7.2 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.0
Grand Canyon 5.0 2.8 7.4 12.6 16.3 18.8 22.3 12.3 5.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 3.9 9.5 13.7 18.2 20.8 19.0 10.8 5.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Seattle 4.1 8.2 12.2 17.8 20.5 18.9 13.6 6.3 2.2 0.3 0.0
California Baptist 6.9 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.2 8.6 17.2 28.1 28.7 8.0 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
New Mexico St. 10.7 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.5 15.7 20.3 24.6 20.3 12.7
Tarleton St. 6.5 0.9 1.8 3.7 6.5 11.4 19.9 26.8 21.1 5.6 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Utah Tech 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.9 9.3 24.2 26.9 16.6 10.8 6.3
Abilene Christian 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.7 7.0 15.5 37.4 21.2 10.7 3.8 0.5
Texas Arlington 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 7.2 15.2 21.9 26.3 27.3
UT Rio Grande Valley 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 8.8 17.1 23.5 24.3 22.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Sam Houston St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 8.4 19.5 29.1 27.7 12.2
Utah Valley 13 - 5 0.0 0.3 1.9 6.9 16.1 25.3 26.9 17.4 5.2
Southern Utah 13 - 5 0.1 1.1 4.8 13.0 22.8 27.2 20.7 8.9 1.5
Grand Canyon 11 - 7 0.0 0.4 1.9 6.5 14.5 23.1 24.7 18.7 8.5 1.7
Stephen F. Austin 12 - 6 0.1 1.5 6.2 16.0 24.9 26.8 16.8 6.6 1.1
Seattle 11 - 7 0.2 2.0 7.6 17.4 25.6 24.7 15.3 6.1 1.1
California Baptist 9 - 9 0.4 3.4 12.0 23.9 28.6 20.5 9.0 2.0 0.2
New Mexico St. 5 - 13 0.5 4.0 11.9 22.1 26.4 20.5 10.9 3.2 0.5
Tarleton St. 9 - 9 0.4 3.0 10.0 18.6 24.7 21.8 13.9 5.8 1.6 0.2
Utah Tech 6 - 12 1.1 5.7 14.2 22.4 23.7 18.2 9.9 3.7 0.8 0.1
Abilene Christian 7 - 11 5.0 17.0 26.6 25.8 16.2 7.0 2.1 0.4 0.0
Texas Arlington 4 - 14 7.4 21.9 29.3 23.2 12.3 4.5 1.2 0.2 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 5 - 13 5.2 18.6 28.6 25.3 14.8 5.9 1.5 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Sam Houston St. 38.5% 17.3 14.7 5.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
Utah Valley 51.6% 29.2 15.7 5.2 1.3 0.2 0.0
Southern Utah 31.5% 14.9 10.8 4.4 1.2 0.2 0.0
Grand Canyon 2.8% 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 9.5% 2.9 3.4 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0
Seattle 8.2% 2.2 3.0 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
New Mexico St.
Tarleton St. 0.9% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah Tech
Abilene Christian
Texas Arlington
UT Rio Grande Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Sam Houston St. 35.6% 32.5% 3.1% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 12.8 16.4 3.1 0.2 0.0 64.4 4.6%
Utah Valley 19.9% 19.4% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.3 9.5 5.8 1.0 0.0 80.1 0.6%
Southern Utah 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.0 2.7 0.7 0.1 88.2 0.0%
Grand Canyon 10.9% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.5 3.2 1.0 0.1 89.1 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.1 1.5 0.2 92.2 0.0%
Seattle 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.0 1.0 0.0 93.0 0.0%
California Baptist 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.1 1.4 95.0 0.0%
New Mexico St. 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 3.2 96.8 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Abilene Christian 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.5 98.3 0.0%
Texas Arlington 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Sam Houston St. 35.6% 2.3% 34.2% 8.6% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 19.9% 0.4% 19.5% 3.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 11.8% 0.0% 11.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 10.9% 0.1% 10.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 7.8% 0.1% 7.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 7.0% 0.0% 7.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 5.0% 0.7% 4.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 3.2% 3.1% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 1.7% 1.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 96.4 3.6 0.0
1st Round 97.9% 1.0 2.1 96.1 1.8 0.0
2nd Round 17.1% 0.2 82.9 17.0 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.9% 0.0 96.1 3.9 0.0
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0