Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
83 Grand Canyon 35.4%   13   6 - 1 1 - 0 22 - 8 14 - 5 +6.3      +4.1 74 +2.2 113 69.4 179 +9.8 53 +12.0 2
106 Stephen F. Austin 20.2%   4 - 3 1 - 0 19 - 10 13 - 6 +4.1      +0.7 160 +3.5 75 74.5 53 +3.4 129 +17.4 1
136 Seattle 11.0%   5 - 3 1 - 0 17 - 13 11 - 8 +2.0      -1.0 200 +3.0 90 71.5 120 -1.8 209 +7.8 4
152 California Baptist 7.9%   4 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 9 +0.5      -0.2 179 +0.6 153 62.2 337 +1.4 150 0.0 6
167 Texas Arlington 6.3%   3 - 4 0 - 1 13 - 16 9 - 10 -0.2      -0.2 178 0.0 167 70.5 147 -0.7 182 -5.9 7
179 Tarleton St. 5.5%   5 - 2 1 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 9 -0.6      -1.5 215 +0.9 147 66.3 263 +8.5 67 +3.5 5
180 Abilene Christian 5.3%   3 - 5 0 - 1 14 - 16 9 - 10 -0.8      -1.0 203 +0.2 163 71.6 118 -0.5 177 -14.1 10
181 Utah Valley 5.2%   3 - 3 0 - 1 13 - 16 9 - 10 -0.9      -2.6 252 +1.7 126 69.1 192 +1.9 145 -14.6 11
218 Utah Tech 3.4%   3 - 3 1 - 0 14 - 16 9 - 11 -2.4      -12.8 362 +10.4 4 71.1 133 +1.3 152 +11.3 3
247 Southern Utah 1.6%   1 - 5 0 - 1 10 - 19 7 - 12 -4.4      +0.3 169 -4.7 313 76.0 40 -7.6 284 -10.2 8
318 UT Rio Grande Valley 0.3%   0 - 7 0 - 1 6 - 23 4 - 15 -8.7      -4.6 303 -4.1 306 79.9 9 -13.2 330 -12.8 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Grand Canyon 2.3 47.7 21.7 12.1 7.4 4.5 3.0 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 3.0 28.9 23.7 16.3 10.8 7.6 5.5 3.1 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2
Seattle 4.0 15.3 18.0 16.6 13.5 10.9 9.2 6.8 4.5 3.1 1.7 0.4
California Baptist 5.2 8.2 11.7 11.9 12.6 11.3 11.2 10.3 8.8 6.9 5.1 2.0
Texas Arlington 5.8 4.4 7.6 9.9 11.6 12.4 12.5 11.8 10.6 9.6 6.8 2.8
Tarleton St. 5.5 6.4 9.6 11.4 12.1 12.2 11.5 11.4 10.0 7.9 5.8 1.8
Abilene Christian 6.2 2.8 6.2 8.3 10.7 12.3 12.1 13.2 12.1 11.0 8.0 3.3
Utah Valley 6.3 3.2 6.4 7.9 9.8 11.4 11.9 12.5 11.9 11.8 9.2 4.0
Utah Tech 6.1 4.6 7.2 8.5 10.4 11.2 11.7 12.4 11.7 10.8 8.3 3.3
Southern Utah 8.1 0.6 1.6 3.0 4.4 6.0 7.8 10.1 13.6 16.8 21.2 15.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.5 4.2 6.9 11.6 21.8 50.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Grand Canyon 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.7 7.2 10.3 13.1 14.9 14.7 13.8 9.6 5.0 1.4
Stephen F. Austin 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 2.9 5.1 8.0 10.6 13.4 14.9 14.2 11.8 8.7 5.1 1.8 0.5
Seattle 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.6 4.0 6.5 9.1 11.8 13.5 14.0 12.8 10.5 6.9 4.2 2.0 0.6 0.1
California Baptist 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.4 5.7 7.7 10.4 12.0 12.5 12.4 10.7 8.8 6.0 4.0 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.1
Texas Arlington 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.5 4.8 7.4 10.1 12.4 13.4 13.3 11.5 9.6 6.2 3.8 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.1
Tarleton St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.9 6.2 9.9 11.2 12.7 13.0 12.3 10.1 7.2 5.7 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 3.1 5.8 8.9 11.3 13.4 13.9 12.8 10.7 8.1 5.3 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Utah Valley 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.5 6.9 9.0 11.5 13.1 12.8 12.4 10.3 7.5 4.9 2.7 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1
Utah Tech 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.5 5.5 8.6 11.6 12.9 12.7 11.7 10.1 8.2 5.8 3.8 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Southern Utah 7 - 13 0.3 1.7 3.9 7.0 10.6 12.3 14.6 13.5 11.5 9.2 6.5 4.2 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 4 - 16 3.3 8.2 13.6 17.0 16.2 14.7 10.1 7.3 4.7 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Grand Canyon 47.7% 36.1 9.5 1.8 0.3 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 28.9% 19.8 7.2 1.6 0.3 0.0
Seattle 15.3% 9.2 4.7 1.2 0.2 0.0
California Baptist 8.2% 5.0 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Texas Arlington 4.4% 2.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 6.4% 3.3 2.2 0.8 0.1
Abilene Christian 2.8% 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Utah Valley 3.2% 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1
Utah Tech 4.6% 2.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Grand Canyon 35.4% 33.7% 1.7% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.5 8.5 14.3 6.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 64.6 2.6%
Stephen F. Austin 20.2% 20.0% 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.0 6.9 6.1 2.9 1.2 0.4 79.8 0.3%
Seattle 11.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.6 2.6 1.8 1.0 89.0 0.0%
California Baptist 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.0 2.1 1.6 0.7 92.1 0.0%
Texas Arlington 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.2 2.2 93.7 0.0%
Tarleton St. 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.6 94.5 0.0%
Abilene Christian 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.8 94.7 0.0%
Utah Valley 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.5 94.8 0.0%
Utah Tech 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 1.1 96.6 0.0%
Southern Utah 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.2 98.4 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Grand Canyon 35.4% 1.0% 34.8% 9.8% 2.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 20.2% 0.3% 20.1% 4.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 11.0% 0.7% 10.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 7.9% 0.4% 7.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 6.3% 1.7% 5.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 5.5% 0.4% 5.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 5.3% 1.3% 4.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 5.2% 1.2% 4.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 3.4% 0.8% 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 1.6% 1.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.9 2.1
1st Round 96.8% 1.0 3.2 95.5 1.4
2nd Round 18.3% 0.2 81.7 18.2 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.5
Elite Eight 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0