Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
100 Grand Canyon 38.6%   12   5 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 8 12 - 4 +5.2      +2.7 101 +2.5 99 75.6 38 +5.3 98 0.0 1
123 Seattle 20.3%   2 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 6 +2.3      +0.7 156 +1.6 119 67.0 236 -3.4 225 0.0 1
161 Texas Arlington 9.8%   2 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 7 -0.3      +1.8 128 -2.1 245 75.2 42 -4.3 234 0.0 1
178 Abilene Christian 8.3%   4 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 8 - 8 -1.0      -0.4 183 -0.6 189 68.2 205 +1.2 153 0.0 1
184 Utah Valley 7.8%   3 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 8 -1.1      -1.8 220 +0.7 149 71.9 96 -1.8 196 0.0 1
185 California Baptist 7.9%   5 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 15 8 - 8 -1.2      +0.5 161 -1.7 227 63.5 318 -2.2 200 0.0 1
199 Southern Utah 6.4%   5 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 13 8 - 8 -1.8      +0.2 169 -1.9 236 72.6 81 +5.4 96 0.0 1
291 Utah Tech 0.7%   1 - 8 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 11 -6.8      -3.7 276 -3.0 275 69.0 180 -11.8 336 0.0 1
323 Tarleton St. 0.2%   1 - 7 0 - 0 6 - 22 4 - 12 -9.0      -6.7 345 -2.3 249 66.8 242 -8.5 305 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Grand Canyon 2.0 52.7 21.3 11.2 6.8 4.0 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.1
Seattle 3.0 25.8 23.3 17.4 12.5 8.9 6.0 3.7 1.9 0.5
Texas Arlington 4.1 11.5 15.3 16.6 15.4 13.7 11.5 8.8 5.2 2.1
Abilene Christian 4.5 8.8 13.1 14.5 15.1 14.6 13.2 10.8 7.1 2.7
Utah Valley 4.5 8.4 12.8 14.8 14.9 14.7 13.2 11.2 7.0 2.9
California Baptist 4.5 7.9 12.5 14.8 15.2 14.8 13.9 11.7 6.5 2.8
Southern Utah 4.8 7.3 10.8 13.0 14.1 14.7 14.7 13.3 8.2 4.0
Utah Tech 7.1 0.5 1.7 3.1 5.0 8.1 12.3 18.4 28.2 22.8
Tarleton St. 7.8 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.3 7.8 13.8 25.5 44.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Grand Canyon 12 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 4.5 7.8 11.1 14.8 17.2 16.6 13.3 7.7 2.7
Seattle 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 4.0 6.8 10.2 13.3 15.5 15.4 13.5 9.6 5.6 2.3 0.5
Texas Arlington 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.1 5.7 8.6 12.1 14.6 15.1 13.8 10.8 7.1 4.4 2.0 0.6 0.1
Abilene Christian 8 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.1 7.3 10.3 13.5 15.0 14.7 12.2 9.1 6.0 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.1
Utah Valley 8 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.4 7.3 10.7 13.6 15.0 14.1 12.5 9.1 5.7 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1
California Baptist 8 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 4.2 7.7 10.9 13.9 15.1 14.7 12.3 8.8 5.4 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.0
Southern Utah 8 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.8 5.4 8.6 12.3 14.3 14.8 13.5 10.7 7.9 4.6 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
Utah Tech 5 - 11 0.9 4.2 9.0 14.2 16.5 16.4 14.2 10.6 6.7 4.0 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tarleton St. 4 - 12 3.4 9.7 16.1 18.2 17.2 13.6 9.9 6.1 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Grand Canyon 52.7% 39.8 10.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Seattle 25.8% 16.6 7.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Texas Arlington 11.5% 6.6 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0
Abilene Christian 8.8% 4.9 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Utah Valley 8.4% 4.5 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
California Baptist 7.9% 4.2 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Southern Utah 7.3% 3.9 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Utah Tech 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tarleton St. 0.2% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Grand Canyon 38.6% 38.5% 0.1% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 2.8 16.7 13.2 4.4 0.7 0.0 61.4 0.1%
Seattle 20.3% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.3 6.7 4.8 3.1 1.0 79.7 0.0%
Texas Arlington 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.3 2.9 2.7 1.0 90.2 0.0%
Abilene Christian 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 2.5 2.9 1.8 0.3 91.7 0.0%
Utah Valley 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.0 2.5 2.0 0.6 92.2 0.0%
California Baptist 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.6 2.3 0.7 92.1 0.0%
Southern Utah 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 2.0 2.3 1.2 0.2 93.6 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.3 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Grand Canyon 38.6% 0.1% 38.6% 7.7% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 20.3% 0.5% 20.2% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 9.8% 0.6% 9.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 8.3% 0.2% 8.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 7.8% 0.3% 7.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 7.9% 0.3% 7.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 6.4% 0.1% 6.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 99.0% 1.0 1.0 99.0 0.0
2nd Round 12.9% 0.1 87.1 12.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0