Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#152
Expected Predictive Rating+7.6#81
Pace66.1#256
Improvement+2.1#38

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#156
First Shot-2.4#246
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#38
Layup/Dunks+4.6#45
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#267
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#336
Freethrows+0.5#149
Improvement-0.1#190

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#164
First Shot-0.3#180
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#142
Layups/Dunks+1.4#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#189
Freethrows+1.4#102
Improvement+2.2#30
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.1% 15.2% 10.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 1.0% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.6 13.0 13.7
.500 or above 81.6% 94.5% 79.3%
.500 or above in Conference 77.3% 83.3% 76.2%
Conference Champion 9.5% 12.9% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Four0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
First Round11.0% 14.8% 10.3%
Second Round1.3% 2.1% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Home) - 15.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 35 - 57 - 10
Quad 411 - 217 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 79   @ Boise St. L 56-76 20%     0 - 1 -10.2 -8.6 -2.1
  Nov 15, 2021 235   @ Pepperdine W 86-74 OT 56%     1 - 1 +11.3 +8.3 +2.2
  Nov 17, 2021 297   @ Long Beach St. W 84-78 OT 69%     2 - 1 +1.7 +3.3 -2.0
  Nov 22, 2021 351   Idaho W 83-45 92%     3 - 1 +23.2 -3.8 +24.1
  Nov 24, 2021 233   Nicholls St. W 74-63 66%     4 - 1 +7.5 +3.0 +4.9
  Nov 27, 2021 326   Denver W 77-68 OT 89%     5 - 1 -3.9 -6.4 +2.0
  Dec 01, 2021 20   BYU L 64-75 16%    
  Dec 08, 2021 140   @ Southern Utah L 70-74 36%    
  Dec 11, 2021 84   @ Wyoming L 65-74 20%    
  Dec 21, 2021 145   @ Washington L 68-72 36%    
  Dec 30, 2021 143   Abilene Christian W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 01, 2022 155   Tarleton St. W 63-60 61%    
  Jan 08, 2022 306   Dixie St. W 81-69 86%    
  Jan 12, 2022 173   @ Seattle L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 15, 2022 217   @ California Baptist W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 20, 2022 286   UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-69 83%    
  Jan 22, 2022 319   Lamar W 77-64 86%    
  Jan 27, 2022 355   @ Chicago St. W 78-62 92%    
  Feb 03, 2022 158   @ Stephen F. Austin L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 05, 2022 218   @ Sam Houston St. W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 10, 2022 110   Grand Canyon W 66-65 50%    
  Feb 12, 2022 102   New Mexico St. L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 17, 2022 155   @ Tarleton St. L 60-63 41%    
  Feb 19, 2022 306   @ Dixie St. W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 24, 2022 173   Seattle W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 26, 2022 217   California Baptist W 75-69 71%    
  Mar 03, 2022 110   @ Grand Canyon L 63-69 31%    
  Mar 05, 2022 102   @ New Mexico St. L 66-73 29%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 2.4 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.2 9.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.0 3.9 1.0 0.1 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 5.0 4.3 0.9 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.6 4.7 1.1 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.4 5.7 1.3 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.2 3.0 5.5 2.4 0.1 11.2 6th
7th 0.3 2.1 4.9 2.9 0.5 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.3 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.3 1.4 3.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.2 2.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 13th
Total 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.1 3.9 6.5 8.8 12.1 13.1 14.7 12.5 10.4 7.2 4.3 2.0 0.8 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8
16-2 94.5% 1.9    1.5 0.4 0.0
15-3 75.3% 3.3    1.9 1.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 32.6% 2.4    0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.8% 0.9    0.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.5% 9.5 5.4 2.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 77.3% 44.3% 33.0% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 59.3%
17-1 0.8% 51.8% 41.3% 10.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 17.9%
16-2 2.0% 40.3% 37.3% 3.0% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.2 4.8%
15-3 4.3% 36.9% 36.8% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0 2.7 0.1%
14-4 7.2% 25.4% 25.4% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.1 5.4
13-5 10.4% 21.3% 21.3% 13.8 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 8.2
12-6 12.5% 13.2% 13.2% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.0 10.9
11-7 14.7% 9.0% 9.0% 14.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 13.4
10-8 13.1% 6.3% 6.3% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 12.2
9-9 12.1% 2.5% 2.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.8
8-10 8.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 8.7
7-11 6.5% 6.5
6-12 3.9% 3.9
5-13 2.1% 2.1
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.1% 10.9% 0.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.3 3.8 2.1 0.2 88.9 0.2%