Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.8 #102
Expected Predictive Rating +4.3 #98
Pace 71.9 #96
Improvement -2.7 #299

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #133 B- B+ F+ C- B+
Defense #76 B- C B+ D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 50% #4 1.23 #97 +8.7 #5
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #306 0.69 #288 -2.8 #310
Three Pointers 35% #302 1.02 #184 -2.9 #286
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #96 +3.0 #95
Freethrows 0.29 #228 69% #304 0.20 #249
Second Chance 35.7% #46 1.15 #58 0.41 #37
Turnovers 20.0% #349
Total Offense +1.1 #133

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #127 1.06 #69 +0.7 #147
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #131 0.76 #171 -0.5 #223
Three Pointers 38% #276 0.98 #125 +2.5 #91
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #88 +2.7 #89
Freethrows 0.32 #245 75% #314 0.24 #273
Second Chance 29.7% #144 1.07 #216 0.32 #179
Turnovers 19.5% #37
Total Defense +3.7 #76

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.2% #18 0.0% #159
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.6% #132 -5.3% #77
Possession Length 16.5 #97 17.1 #136
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #71 0.15 #96
Improvement -2.0 #291 -0.7 #230

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.3% 49.1% 40.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.7 13.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.9% 98.5%
Conference Champion 67.0% 69.4% 45.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round48.3% 49.1% 40.8%
Second Round4.7% 4.8% 3.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Home) - 89.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 310 - 311 - 6
Quad 410 - 221 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 63 @Boise St. L 77 - 101 25% -12  0 - 1 -12 +5 C A F -16 F+ F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 149 @Fresno St. L 74 - 75 55% +4  0 - 2 +3 +5 A- B- D -2 F B- A+
 Wed, Nov 19 114 UC Irvine W 79 - 72 68% +6  1 - 2 +7 +10 A A- C+ -3 B+ D+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 177 South Dakota St. W 75 - 52 73% +10  2 - 2 +22 +1 C- A+ F +21 A+ B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 239 Samford W 89 - 45 81% +23  3 - 2 +40 +8 B+ B F +30 A+ B A+
 Wed, Dec 3 41 @San Diego St. L 66 - 77 17% -6  3 - 3 +4 +2 B B F +2 B+ D B-
 Sat, Dec 6 146 @Bowling Green W 82 - 71 54% +10  4 - 3 +15 +9 A+ C+ F +5 A- D B
 Wed, Dec 10 226 Idaho St. W 73 - 69 86% -1  5 - 3 -3 -3 C B- F +1 C+ A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 133 UC Santa Barbara W 68 - 53 62% +12  6 - 3 +17 -4 D- C F +21 A+ C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 215 Weber St. W 90 - 74 85% +9  7 - 3 +10 +19 A+ A+ F+ -8 B F+ D
 Mon, Dec 29 142 California Baptist W 73 - 66 74% +0  8 - 3 1 - 0 +5 +0 A F A- +5 F A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 212 @Tarleton St. W 91 - 85 68% +2  9 - 3 2 - 0 +6 +11 B- C C- -6 B- C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 259 @Abilene Christian L 68 - 85 76% -5  9 - 4 2 - 1 -20 -3 C B F -16 F B- F
 Thu, Jan 8 293 Southern Utah W 89 - 72 91% +10  10 - 4 3 - 1 +7 +9 B+ B+ F -2 C- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 218 Utah Tech W 92 - 76 85% +7  11 - 4 4 - 1 +10 +8 C+ A D- +0 C+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 153 Texas Arlington W 86 - 74 76% +14  12 - 4 5 - 1 +9 +16 B A+ C+ -7 B F B-
 Wed, Jan 21 293 @Southern Utah L 70 - 84 81% -4  12 - 5 5 - 2 -18 -5 F C+ C- -13 F F A
 Sat, Jan 24 142 @California Baptist L 71 - 78 OT 52% -0  12 - 6 5 - 3 -3 -4 D- D+ F+ +1 D A- A
 Thu, Jan 29 212 @Tarleton St. W 83 - 55 68% +4  13 - 6 6 - 3 +28 +8 B- A+ F +19 A+ C+ A+
 Thu, Feb 5 259 Abilene Christian W 78 - 65 90%
 Sat, Feb 7 153 Texas Arlington W 73 - 66 76%
 Thu, Feb 12 218 @Utah Tech W 77 - 72 68%
 Thu, Feb 19 142 California Baptist W 74 - 67 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 153 @Texas Arlington W 70 - 69 56%
 Thu, Feb 26 212 Tarleton St. W 83 - 72 85%
 Sat, Feb 28 259 Abilene Christian W 78 - 65 89%
 Thu, Mar 5 293 @Southern Utah W 81 - 72 81%
 Sat, Mar 7 218 @Utah Tech W 77 - 72 69%
Totals 20 - 8 13 - 5 +5 +1 B- B+ F+ +4 B- C B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 8.9 22.5 24.3 10.2 67.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.8 10.7 5.8 0.5 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.6 1.2 0.0 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.9 10.6 20.9 28.3 24.8 10.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 10.2    10.2
14-4 97.9% 24.3    21.3 3.0
13-5 79.5% 22.5    13.8 8.0 0.6
12-6 42.8% 8.9    2.9 4.5 1.5 0.0
11-7 10.0% 1.1    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1
10-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 67.0% 67.0 48.4 15.9 2.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 10.2% 63.6% 63.6% 11.9 1.2 4.6 0.6 0.0 3.7
14-4 24.8% 55.6% 55.6% 12.5 0.1 6.8 6.5 0.4 11.0
13-5 28.3% 50.0% 50.0% 12.8 0.0 4.4 8.2 1.4 0.0 14.1
12-6 20.9% 42.9% 42.9% 13.0 1.6 5.4 1.9 0.0 11.9
11-7 10.6% 34.3% 34.3% 13.2 0.4 2.1 1.1 0.0 7.0
10-8 3.9% 26.3% 26.3% 13.5 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.1 2.9
9-9 1.1% 21.5% 21.5% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
8-10 0.2% 14.3% 14.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 48.3% 48.3% 0.0% 12.7 51.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.5% 100.0% 11.9 19.1 71.0 9.9 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%