Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#139
Expected Predictive Rating-9.6#299
Pace69.8#180
Improvement+0.6#100

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#172
First Shot-2.3#249
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#77
Layup/Dunks+2.3#104
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#334
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#280
Freethrows+1.8#93
Improvement+0.0#192

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#129
First Shot-2.3#254
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#46
Layups/Dunks-4.3#310
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#181
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#84
Freethrows-1.3#250
Improvement+0.6#95
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.0% 33.8% 24.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.3
.500 or above 71.2% 80.6% 58.1%
.500 or above in Conference 84.4% 88.5% 78.7%
Conference Champion 39.7% 45.0% 32.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 2.2% 4.5%
First Four1.8% 1.3% 2.6%
First Round29.3% 33.3% 23.6%
Second Round2.4% 3.0% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Home) - 58.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 66 - 9
Quad 411 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 58 @Boise St. L 77-101 14%     0 - 1 -11.3 +5.8 -15.5
  Sat, Nov 15 208 @Fresno St. L 74-75 53%     0 - 2 -0.9 +0.9 -1.8
  Wed, Nov 19 131 UC Irvine W 71-69 58%    
  Tue, Nov 25 143 South Dakota St. W 74-73 52%    
  Wed, Nov 26 175 Samford W 76-74 58%    
  Wed, Dec 3 40 @San Diego St. L 61-75 10%    
  Sat, Dec 6 136 @Bowling Green L 72-75 39%    
  Wed, Dec 10 247 Idaho St. W 72-63 78%    
  Sat, Dec 13 115 UC Santa Barbara L 72-74 44%    
  Wed, Dec 17 238 Weber St. W 79-71 77%    
  Mon, Dec 29 153 California Baptist W 72-68 64%    
  Thu, Jan 1 240 @Tarleton St. W 74-72 58%    
  Sat, Jan 3 193 @Abilene Christian W 72-71 51%    
  Thu, Jan 8 306 Southern Utah W 80-68 85%    
  Sat, Jan 10 292 Utah Tech W 76-65 82%    
  Sat, Jan 17 180 Texas Arlington W 73-67 68%    
  Wed, Jan 21 306 @Southern Utah W 77-71 69%    
  Sat, Jan 24 153 @California Baptist L 69-71 44%    
  Thu, Jan 29 240 @Tarleton St. W 74-72 58%    
  Thu, Feb 5 193 Abilene Christian W 75-69 70%    
  Sat, Feb 7 180 Texas Arlington W 73-67 68%    
  Thu, Feb 12 292 @Utah Tech W 73-68 65%    
  Thu, Feb 19 153 California Baptist W 72-68 64%    
  Sat, Feb 21 180 @Texas Arlington L 69-70 48%    
  Thu, Feb 26 240 Tarleton St. W 77-69 76%    
  Sat, Feb 28 193 Abilene Christian W 75-69 70%    
  Thu, Mar 5 306 @Southern Utah W 77-71 68%    
  Sat, Mar 7 292 @Utah Tech W 73-68 65%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.4 6.8 9.2 8.6 6.2 3.5 1.1 39.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.6 7.1 5.2 2.1 0.5 0.0 22.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.4 4.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.3 0.9 0.1 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.9 7th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.1 5.8 7.8 9.6 11.3 12.2 12.4 11.3 9.1 6.2 3.5 1.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 100.0% 3.5    3.5
16-2 99.5% 6.2    6.0 0.1
15-3 94.5% 8.6    7.7 0.9 0.0
14-4 80.9% 9.2    7.0 2.1 0.1
13-5 55.3% 6.8    3.9 2.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 28.1% 3.4    1.2 1.6 0.6 0.0
11-7 7.1% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 39.7% 39.7 30.6 7.7 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 73.2% 72.9% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.3%
17-1 3.5% 65.3% 65.3% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.2 0.2%
16-2 6.2% 58.2% 58.2% 12.9 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.6
15-3 9.1% 50.5% 50.5% 13.4 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 4.5
14-4 11.3% 43.9% 43.9% 13.8 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.1 1.0 0.1 6.3
13-5 12.4% 38.0% 38.0% 14.2 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.5 0.3 7.7
12-6 12.2% 30.5% 30.5% 14.6 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.6 8.5
11-7 11.3% 21.7% 21.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.8 8.8
10-8 9.6% 14.2% 14.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 8.2
9-9 7.8% 9.8% 9.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 7.0
8-10 5.8% 6.9% 6.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 5.4
7-11 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.2 4.0
6-12 2.7% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 2.6
5-13 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 30.0% 30.0% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.5 7.3 8.3 6.4 3.8 70.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 8.2 12.9 3.2 16.1 12.9 3.2 12.9 12.9 19.4 6.5