Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#184
Expected Predictive Rating-1.8#196
Pace71.9#96
Improvement-4.1#359

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#220
First Shot-2.7#256
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#130
Layup/Dunks+1.2#139
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#145
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#315
Freethrows+0.4#156
Improvement-2.5#336

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#149
First Shot-2.5#258
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#18
Layups/Dunks-3.0#285
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#252
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#65
Freethrows-2.2#305
Improvement-1.6#311
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.8% 10.6% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.6 14.2
.500 or above 47.1% 66.8% 40.9%
.500 or above in Conference 60.9% 70.0% 58.0%
Conference Champion 8.4% 12.5% 7.2%
Last Place in Conference 5.8% 3.7% 6.4%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round7.7% 10.5% 6.8%
Second Round0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Away) - 23.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 4
Quad 35 - 76 - 11
Quad 48 - 414 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 158   UTEP W 89-60 57%     1 - 0 +26.2 +9.4 +14.1
  Nov 14, 2024 289   @ North Dakota L 71-77 60%     1 - 1 -9.6 -5.5 -4.1
  Nov 22, 2024 117   @ Murray St. W 77-75 25%     2 - 1 +7.8 +9.3 -1.4
  Nov 26, 2024 349   West Georgia W 77-74 86%     3 - 1 -9.6 -3.1 -6.6
  Nov 27, 2024 121   @ Samford L 76-84 26%     3 - 2 -2.5 -5.5 +3.7
  Nov 28, 2024 187   North Dakota St. L 63-83 51%     3 - 3 -21.3 -4.1 -20.7
  Dec 03, 2024 93   @ Stanford L 63-77 18%     3 - 4 -5.3 -9.5 +4.9
  Dec 07, 2024 114   @ James Madison L 71-78 24%    
  Dec 11, 2024 289   North Dakota W 78-69 79%    
  Dec 14, 2024 174   @ Jacksonville St. L 68-71 38%    
  Dec 18, 2024 252   @ Idaho St. W 68-67 53%    
  Dec 21, 2024 210   @ Weber St. L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 04, 2025 178   Abilene Christian W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 09, 2025 100   Grand Canyon L 74-77 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 185   California Baptist W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 16, 2025 161   @ Texas Arlington L 76-80 36%    
  Jan 18, 2025 291   Utah Tech W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 23, 2025 185   @ California Baptist L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 25, 2025 123   @ Seattle L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 01, 2025 100   @ Grand Canyon L 71-80 20%    
  Feb 06, 2025 161   Texas Arlington W 79-77 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 323   Tarleton St. W 75-64 84%    
  Feb 15, 2025 199   @ Southern Utah L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 20, 2025 291   @ Utah Tech W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 123   Seattle L 70-71 48%    
  Mar 01, 2025 199   Southern Utah W 77-73 62%    
  Mar 06, 2025 178   @ Abilene Christian L 71-74 39%    
  Mar 08, 2025 323   @ Tarleton St. W 72-67 67%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.6 2.8 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 8.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.7 5.1 2.7 0.6 0.0 12.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.9 6.5 2.3 0.2 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.3 6.6 2.0 0.1 14.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.2 6.8 1.9 0.1 14.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.3 6.0 2.0 0.1 13.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.8 4.7 1.4 0.1 11.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.5 0.8 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.9 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.4 7.3 10.7 13.6 15.0 14.1 12.5 9.1 5.7 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
14-2 95.9% 1.1    1.0 0.1
13-3 80.1% 2.3    1.6 0.6 0.0
12-4 48.7% 2.8    1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0
11-5 17.7% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 8.4% 8.4 4.5 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 45.5% 45.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.4% 39.1% 39.1% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-2 1.2% 38.9% 38.9% 12.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7
13-3 2.8% 28.1% 28.1% 13.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.0
12-4 5.7% 24.0% 24.0% 13.6 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.3
11-5 9.1% 19.1% 19.1% 13.9 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 7.4
10-6 12.5% 12.0% 12.0% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 11.0
9-7 14.1% 6.2% 6.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 13.3
8-8 15.0% 3.3% 3.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 14.5
7-9 13.6% 1.8% 1.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.3
6-10 10.7% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 10.6
5-11 7.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.3
4-12 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.4
3-13 2.1% 2.1
2-14 0.8% 0.8
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.0 2.5 2.0 0.6 92.2 0.0%