Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.7#99
Expected Predictive Rating+7.5#71
Pace70.4#114
Improvement+0.9#84

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#137
First Shot+1.1#141
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#164
Layup/Dunks+2.7#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#220
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#261
Freethrows+1.1#95
Improvement+0.4#108

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#79
First Shot+6.2#26
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#355
Layups/Dunks+1.3#123
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#286
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#31
Freethrows+2.0#49
Improvement+0.5#113
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.9% 21.6% 16.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.9% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 51.6% 61.3% 34.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.7% 0.0%
First Round19.5% 21.1% 16.8%
Second Round3.5% 3.9% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Away) - 63.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 23 - 24 - 4
Quad 36 - 310 - 7
Quad 49 - 119 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 47   @ Utah St. L 58-75 22%     0 - 1 -4.3 -13.6 +9.9
  Nov 12, 2022 293   Northern Arizona W 73-69 91%     1 - 1 -5.7 -0.8 -4.6
  Nov 15, 2022 67   @ Wake Forest L 65-68 OT 27%     1 - 2 +8.0 -9.2 +17.4
  Nov 18, 2022 300   Morgan St. L 72-73 OT 87%     1 - 3 -8.7 -7.1 -1.5
  Nov 20, 2022 362   Green Bay W 79-56 97%     2 - 3 +5.7 -1.7 +7.7
  Nov 26, 2022 36   @ Boise St. L 69-87 18%     2 - 4 -3.5 +8.3 -12.2
  Dec 03, 2022 165   Long Beach St. W 88-78 76%     3 - 4 +7.4 +6.1 +0.4
  Dec 07, 2022 81   @ BYU W 75-60 33%     4 - 4 +24.3 +13.4 +11.6
  Dec 10, 2022 293   @ Northern Arizona W 80-75 OT 80%     5 - 4 +0.7 -4.7 +4.9
  Dec 20, 2022 48   @ Oregon W 77-72 22%     6 - 4 +17.7 +5.5 +12.0
  Dec 29, 2022 82   Sam Houston St. W 80-64 53%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +19.8 +8.7 +10.8
  Dec 31, 2022 211   Utah Tech W 71-60 82%     8 - 4 2 - 0 +6.2 -7.8 +13.2
  Jan 05, 2023 274   @ Texas Arlington W 72-64 77%     9 - 4 3 - 0 +4.9 -1.0 +6.0
  Jan 07, 2023 279   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-61 78%     10 - 4 4 - 0 +10.4 -2.3 +12.5
  Jan 11, 2023 156   @ California Baptist W 71-67 56%     11 - 4 5 - 0 +7.3 +5.6 +1.9
  Jan 14, 2023 142   Seattle L 80-85 71%     11 - 5 5 - 1 -6.1 +4.8 -10.7
  Jan 18, 2023 218   Abilene Christian W 84-54 82%     12 - 5 6 - 1 +25.0 +2.5 +20.5
  Jan 21, 2023 116   @ Grand Canyon W 76-74 47%     13 - 5 7 - 1 +7.6 +9.3 -1.6
  Jan 26, 2023 114   @ Southern Utah L 67-79 46%     13 - 6 7 - 2 -6.1 -8.4 +3.0
  Jan 28, 2023 184   New Mexico St. W 77-72 78%     14 - 6 8 - 2 +1.6 -3.9 +5.2
  Feb 02, 2023 211   @ Utah Tech W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 08, 2023 156   California Baptist W 69-62 75%    
  Feb 11, 2023 114   Southern Utah W 78-74 67%    
  Feb 18, 2023 142   @ Seattle W 70-69 50%    
  Feb 23, 2023 187   @ Tarleton St. W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 25, 2023 218   @ Abilene Christian W 75-71 65%    
  Mar 01, 2023 274   Texas Arlington W 74-61 90%    
  Mar 03, 2023 135   Stephen F. Austin W 74-68 71%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 7.7 20.9 17.3 5.2 51.6 1st
2nd 0.1 3.9 12.6 5.8 0.1 22.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 7.1 4.7 0.2 13.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.7 3.9 0.4 7.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.5 0.7 0.0 3.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.9 6.9 16.1 25.3 26.9 17.4 5.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 5.2    5.2
15-3 99.4% 17.3    14.0 3.2 0.1
14-4 77.7% 20.9    8.9 9.5 2.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 30.2% 7.7    1.0 3.0 2.6 0.9 0.1
12-6 3.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 51.6% 51.6 29.2 15.7 5.2 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 5.2% 38.2% 30.5% 7.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.5 0.0 3.2 11.1%
15-3 17.4% 24.6% 24.3% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 1.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 13.1 0.4%
14-4 26.9% 21.1% 21.1% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.6 3.4 1.5 0.1 21.2 0.1%
13-5 25.3% 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.1 2.3 1.9 0.2 20.8 0.0%
12-6 16.1% 14.3% 14.3% 12.9 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.3 13.8
11-7 6.9% 12.4% 12.4% 13.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 6.0
10-8 1.9% 9.7% 9.7% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
9-9 0.3% 5.4% 5.4% 14.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.9% 19.4% 0.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.3 9.5 5.8 1.0 0.0 80.1 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.2% 38.2% 11.1 0.0 0.5 3.3 25.3 9.0 0.1