Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.1 #100
Expected Predictive Rating +6.1 #85
Pace 72.5 #86
Improvement -1.5 #259

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #127 B+ B+ F C A
Defense #75 B- C+ B+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 51% #3 1.27 #75 +9.9 #3
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #315 0.66 #298 -3.1 #325
Three Pointers 35% #295 1.06 #124 -2.0 #253
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #57 +4.8 #56
Freethrows 17.3 #193 70% #258 12.1 #205
Second Chance 34.4% #73 1.17 #43 0.40 #48
Turnovers 20.8% #356
Total Offense +1.4 #127

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #84 1.07 #78 -0.2 #180
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #147 0.83 #291 -1.1 #272
Three Pointers 36% #298 0.92 #71 +4.0 #42
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #91 +2.7 #91
Freethrows 17.1 #179 76% #301 12.9 #158
Second Chance 29.5% #138 1.02 #151 0.30 #137
Turnovers 19.2% #56
Total Defense +3.7 #75

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.5% #16 0.3% #194
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.5% #88 -5.6% #82
Possession Length 16.4 #93 17.0 #130
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #66 0.15 #109
Improvement -1.4 #268 -0.1 #190

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.7% 50.8% 41.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.5 12.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.8% 98.6%
Conference Champion 77.7% 84.7% 54.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round48.7% 50.8% 41.6%
Second Round5.8% 6.2% 4.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 0.9% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 77.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 310 - 411 - 7
Quad 411 - 122 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 78 @Boise St. L 77 - 101 31% -12  0 - 1 -14 +6 C+ A+ F -18 F F F
 Sat, Nov 15 152 @Fresno St. L 74 - 75 57% +4  0 - 2 +2 +4 B+ B+ D- -2 F B A+
 Wed, Nov 19 121 UC Irvine W 79 - 72 70% +6  1 - 2 +7 +10 A+ A B -3 A D+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 181 South Dakota St. W 75 - 52 74% +10  2 - 2 +21 +1 C- A+ F +21 A+ A- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 244 Samford W 89 - 45 82% +23  3 - 2 +39 +8 A+ B F +29 A+ B A+
 Wed, Dec 3 47 @San Diego St. L 66 - 77 19% -6  3 - 3 +3 +2 B+ B F +2 B+ D B
 Sat, Dec 6 133 @Bowling Green W 82 - 71 52% +10  4 - 3 +16 +10 A+ C+ F +5 A+ D B+
 Wed, Dec 10 189 Idaho St. W 73 - 69 82% -1  5 - 3 -1 -3 C+ C+ F +3 B A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 173 UC Santa Barbara W 68 - 53 73% +12  6 - 3 +14 -6 F C- F +20 A+ C A+
 Wed, Dec 17 192 Weber St. W 90 - 74 83% +9  7 - 3 +11 +19 A+ A+ F -7 A- F D
 Mon, Dec 29 147 California Baptist W 73 - 66 76% +0  8 - 3 1 - 0 +5 -0 A+ F A+ +5 F A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 178 @Tarleton St. W 91 - 85 64% +2  9 - 3 2 - 0 +8 +11 B C C -4 B+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 231 @Abilene Christian L 68 - 85 72% -5  9 - 4 2 - 1 -18 -4 C B+ F -14 F B F
 Thu, Jan 8 316 Southern Utah W 89 - 72 94% +10  10 - 4 3 - 1 +5 +8 B A- F -4 D D+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 232 Utah Tech W 92 - 76 87% +7  11 - 4 4 - 1 +9 +8 C+ A+ D -1 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 154 Texas Arlington W 73 - 65 77%
 Wed, Jan 21 316 @Southern Utah W 82 - 70 86%
 Sat, Jan 24 147 @California Baptist W 71 - 70 55%
 Thu, Jan 29 178 @Tarleton St. W 80 - 76 63%
 Thu, Feb 5 231 Abilene Christian W 78 - 66 87%
 Sat, Feb 7 154 Texas Arlington W 73 - 65 76%
 Thu, Feb 12 232 @Utah Tech W 76 - 70 71%
 Thu, Feb 19 147 California Baptist W 74 - 67 75%
 Sat, Feb 21 154 @Texas Arlington W 70 - 68 56%
 Thu, Feb 26 178 Tarleton St. W 83 - 73 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 231 Abilene Christian W 78 - 66 86%
 Thu, Mar 5 316 @Southern Utah W 82 - 70 86%
 Sat, Mar 7 232 @Utah Tech W 76 - 70 71%
Totals 21 - 7 14 - 4 +5 +1 B+ B+ F +4 B- C+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 5.7 14.4 20.9 19.0 12.5 4.3 77.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.9 6.3 3.9 0.7 0.0 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 7th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.1 6.9 12.6 18.3 21.6 19.1 12.5 4.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 4.3    4.3
16-2 100.0% 12.5    12.5
15-3 99.8% 19.0    18.7 0.3
14-4 96.9% 20.9    18.6 2.3
13-5 78.7% 14.4    9.4 4.7 0.3
12-6 45.1% 5.7    2.1 2.6 0.9 0.0
11-7 13.7% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 77.7% 77.7 65.8 10.3 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 4.3% 65.0% 65.0% 11.4 0.0 0.1 1.7 1.0 0.0 1.5
16-2 12.5% 61.9% 61.9% 12.0 1.0 5.4 1.3 0.0 4.8
15-3 19.1% 55.8% 55.8% 12.4 0.4 6.2 3.7 0.3 8.4
14-4 21.6% 51.9% 51.9% 12.6 0.2 4.7 5.6 0.7 0.0 10.4
13-5 18.3% 46.0% 46.0% 12.9 0.0 2.4 4.7 1.3 0.0 9.9
12-6 12.6% 39.1% 39.1% 13.1 0.7 2.9 1.3 0.0 7.6
11-7 6.9% 30.8% 30.8% 13.3 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.0 4.8
10-8 3.1% 20.0% 20.0% 13.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.5
9-9 1.2% 13.6% 13.6% 13.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
8-10 0.3% 10.6% 10.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.1% 9.1% 9.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 48.7% 48.7% 0.0% 12.5 51.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.8% 100.0% 11.4 0.5 1.8 59.8 37.0 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%