Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.7 #86
Expected Predictive Rating +8.6 #73
Pace 71.3 #126
Improvement +1.2 #112

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #120 A- C B+ F A+
Defense #61 B+ C B- B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 52% #2 1.30 #52 +11.5 #1
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #319 0.62 #317 -3.4 #335
Three Pointers 35% #306 1.09 #94 -1.9 #242
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #41 +6.2 #40
Freethrows 17.6 #174 68% #292 12.0 #219
Second Chance 34.6% #80 1.17 #47 0.41 #45
Turnovers 19.7% #325
Total Offense +2.0 #120

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #87 1.07 #79 -0.2 #185
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #146 0.82 #270 -1.1 #258
Three Pointers 37% #295 0.82 #20 +5.9 #18
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #51 +4.7 #52
Freethrows 17.2 #187 75% #270 12.8 #210
Second Chance 29.0% #129 0.99 #115 0.29 #110
Turnovers 19.7% #43
Total Defense +4.7 #61

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.9% #13 0.3% #192
Shot Type Make % Effect 7.8% #72 -9.4% #45
Possession Length 16.4 #107 17.2 #195
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #75 0.14 #83
Improvement -0.8 #244 +2.0 #58

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.8% 58.0% 52.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 12.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.9% 99.1%
Conference Champion 87.1% 90.1% 76.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round56.8% 58.0% 52.4%
Second Round9.0% 9.4% 7.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 2.0% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Away) - 77.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 311 - 312 - 6
Quad 411 - 123 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 51 @Boise St. L 77-101 25%     -11.6   0 - 1 -10.3 +8.6 -17.3
  Sat, Nov 15 183 @Fresno St. L 74-75 69%     4.4   0 - 2 +0.6 +2.3 -1.8
  Wed, Nov 19 135 UC Irvine W 79-72 78%     5.6   1 - 2 +5.6 +8.6 -3.1
  Tue, Nov 25 163 South Dakota St. W 75-52 75%     10.4   2 - 2 +22.7 +1.8 +20.9
  Wed, Nov 26 210 Samford W 89-45 82%     23.4   3 - 2 +40.8 +10.3 +28.5
  Wed, Dec 3 53 @San Diego St. L 66-77 26%     -5.9   3 - 3 +2.5 +0.5 +2.0
  Sat, Dec 6 126 @Bowling Green W 82-71 56%     10.0   4 - 3 +16.2 +11.7 +4.2
  Wed, Dec 10 166 Idaho St. W 73-69 83%     -1.3   5 - 3 +0.4 -1.5 +1.9
  Sat, Dec 13 161 UC Santa Barbara W 68-53 74%     12.3   6 - 3 +14.8 -5.5 +20.9
  Wed, Dec 17 232 Weber St. W 90-74 90%     9.0   7 - 3 +8.8 +18.3 -8.4
  Mon, Dec 29 142 California Baptist W 73-66 80%     0.2   8 - 3 1 - 0 +4.9 -0.2 +5.1
  Thu, Jan 1 171 @Tarleton St. W 91-85 67%     2.2   9 - 3 2 - 0 +8.3 +12.5 -4.7
  Sat, Jan 3 235 @Abilene Christian W 74-66 78%    
  Thu, Jan 8 329 Southern Utah W 84-64 97%    
  Sat, Jan 10 217 Utah Tech W 79-66 89%    
  Sat, Jan 17 168 Texas Arlington W 72-62 84%    
  Wed, Jan 21 329 @Southern Utah W 81-67 90%    
  Sat, Jan 24 142 @California Baptist W 72-69 60%    
  Thu, Jan 29 171 @Tarleton St. W 78-74 66%    
  Thu, Feb 5 235 Abilene Christian W 77-63 90%    
  Sat, Feb 7 168 Texas Arlington W 72-62 83%    
  Thu, Feb 12 217 @Utah Tech W 76-69 74%    
  Thu, Feb 19 142 California Baptist W 75-66 79%    
  Sat, Feb 21 168 @Texas Arlington W 69-65 65%    
  Thu, Feb 26 171 Tarleton St. W 81-71 82%    
  Sat, Feb 28 235 Abilene Christian W 77-63 89%    
  Thu, Mar 5 329 @Southern Utah W 81-67 89%    
  Sat, Mar 7 217 @Utah Tech W 76-69 75%    
Projected Record 22 - 6 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 2.4 7.8 14.1 20.3 20.8 15.6 5.8 87.1 1st
2nd 0.3 1.3 3.2 2.7 1.2 0.2 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 2.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.1 6.0 10.6 15.3 20.5 20.8 15.6 5.8 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 5.8    5.8
17-1 100.0% 15.6    15.6
16-2 100.0% 20.8    20.6 0.2
15-3 98.9% 20.3    19.4 0.9
14-4 92.2% 14.1    11.7 2.4 0.1
13-5 73.6% 7.8    4.7 2.8 0.3
12-6 39.6% 2.4    0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0
11-7 11.1% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 87.1% 87.1 78.6 7.5 0.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 5.8% 74.1% 73.5% 0.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.4 0.7 0.0 1.5 1.9%
17-1 15.6% 68.3% 68.3% 11.7 0.0 3.4 6.6 0.6 5.0
16-2 20.8% 62.3% 62.3% 12.1 1.2 8.7 3.0 0.0 7.8
15-3 20.5% 56.9% 56.9% 12.4 0.3 6.2 4.7 0.4 8.8
14-4 15.3% 53.1% 53.1% 12.7 0.0 2.9 4.5 0.7 0.0 7.2
13-5 10.6% 47.4% 47.4% 12.9 1.1 3.0 0.8 0.0 5.6
12-6 6.0% 39.9% 39.9% 13.2 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.0 3.6
11-7 3.1% 36.3% 36.3% 13.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 2.0
10-8 1.5% 22.7% 22.7% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.2
9-9 0.5% 34.0% 34.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
8-10 0.2% 10.0% 10.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 56.8% 56.7% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 7.4 26.8 17.8 3.4 0.2 43.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.3% 100.0% 10.8 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.2 6.8 18.2 56.3 16.4 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 1.1% 11.0 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 3.0% 11.0 3.0