Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.0 102
Expected Predictive Rating +3.8 103
Pace 71.3 108
Improvement -2.3 279

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 120 B- B+ F+ C- A-
Defense B- 85 C+ C B+ D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 50% 3 B- 62% 88 +31.1 5
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 261 C- 36% 258 +5.0 315
Three Pointers 36% 280 C+ 34% 157 +18.7 258
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.7 15 C+ +1.7 114
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 79
Second Chance B+ 36.5% 34 B- 1.10 83 B+ 0.40 39
Turnovers F+ 20.6% 346
Freethrows C- 0.30 215 D 69% 285 C- 0.21 240
Total Offense C+ +1.9 120

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 112 B- 54% 71 +22.2 202
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 134 C- 40% 235 +8.6 116
Three Pointers 37% 290 C 33% 158 +18.7 279
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 179 C+ -1.7 110
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 123
Second Chance C 30.5% 183 C- 1.05 221 C 0.32 204
Turnovers B+ 20.4% 29
Freethrows D+ 0.33 282 C- 73% 244 D+ 0.25 286
Total Defense B- +3.1 85

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 107 17.1 159
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 101 0.15 99
Improvement -0.7 #227 -1.6 #271

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50% 53% 43%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.6 12.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 64% 79% 23%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round50% 53% 43%
Second Round5% 5% 4%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Home) - 73.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 310 - 311 - 7
Quad 410 - 221 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 58 @Boise St. L 77 - 101 25% -12  0% 0 - 1 D- -12 C +1 C A F F -12 F+ F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 131 @Fresno St. L 74 - 75 51% +4  87% 0 - 2 C+ +4 C+ +3 A- B- D+ C+ +1 F B A+
 Wed, Nov 19 120 UC Irvine W 79 - 72 69% +6  93% 1 - 2 B- +7 B+ +8 A A- B C -1 A D- D+
 Tue, Nov 25 203 South Dakota St. W 75 - 52 76% +10  98% 2 - 2 A +20 C- -2 C- A+ F A+ +22 A+ B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 187 Samford W 89 - 45 74% +23  89% 3 - 2 A+ +42 B +7 A B+ F A+ +33 A+ B+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 42 @San Diego St. L 66 - 77 16% -6  11% 3 - 3 C+ +5 C +2 B+ B+ F B- +3 B+ D- B-
 Sat, Dec 6 156 @Bowling Green W 82 - 71 57% +10  90% 4 - 3 B+ +14 B+ +8 A+ C F B +6 A- F+ B-
 Wed, Dec 10 270 Idaho St. W 73 - 69 90% -1  56% 5 - 3 D+ -5 F+ -8 C- C- F B- +3 C A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 143 UC Santa Barbara W 68 - 53 64% +12  95% 6 - 3 A- +16 F+ -8 F+ C F A+ +25 A+ C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 230 Weber St. W 90 - 74 86% +9  97% 7 - 3 B +9 A+ +15 A+ A+ F+ D+ -5 B F D
 Mon, Dec 29 138 California Baptist W 73 - 66 74% +0  37% 8 - 3 1 - 0 B- +5 C- -1 A F A- B+ +7 F A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 224 @Tarleton St. W 91 - 85 70% +2  66% 9 - 3 2 - 0 B- +5 A- +11 B C+ C+ D -6 C+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 3 245 @Abilene Christian L 68 - 85 74% -5  21% 9 - 4 2 - 1 F -19 D -5 C+ B+ F F -14 F C+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 277 Southern Utah W 89 - 72 91% +10  98% 10 - 4 3 - 1 B- +7 B +6 B+ A- F C+ +0 C C- C
 Sat, Jan 10 190 Utah Tech W 92 - 76 82% +7  77% 11 - 4 4 - 1 B +11 B +6 C+ A D B +4 B F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 184 Texas Arlington W 86 - 74 81% +14  99% 12 - 4 5 - 1 B- +7 A +12 B A+ C+ D+ -4 B+ F B-
 Wed, Jan 21 277 @Southern Utah L 70 - 84 80% -4  15% 12 - 5 5 - 2 F -18 D- -7 F B- C- F+ -10 F F A
 Sat, Jan 24 138 @California Baptist L 71 - 78 OT 52% -0  37% 12 - 6 5 - 3 C- -3 D -5 D- C- F+ B- +3 D- B+ A
 Thu, Jan 29 224 @Tarleton St. W 83 - 55 70% +4  51% 13 - 6 6 - 3 A+ +27 B+ +8 B A+ F A+ +19 A+ C+ A+
 Thu, Feb 5 245 Abilene Christian W 68 - 55 88% +7  71% 14 - 6 7 - 3 B- +5 D- -7 D- A+ F A +12 D A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 184 Texas Arlington W 81 - 60 81% +9  80% 15 - 6 8 - 3 A- +16 A+ +21 A+ A+ C C -1 F A A
 Thu, Feb 12 190 @Utah Tech L 77 - 81 65% -10  0% 15 - 7 8 - 4 C- -3 B- +4 A+ F F D- -7 F+ F B-
 Thu, Feb 19 138 California Baptist W 74 - 67 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 184 @Texas Arlington W 72 - 69 63%
 Thu, Feb 26 224 Tarleton St. W 81 - 69 86%
 Sat, Feb 28 245 Abilene Christian W 78 - 65 88%
 Thu, Mar 5 277 @Southern Utah W 81 - 72 79%
 Sat, Mar 7 190 @Utah Tech W 77 - 73 64%
Totals 20 - 8 13 - 5 +5 F +2 D- C+ A- C+ +3 C+ D C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- C- C+ C+ 50% 30% 36% A- B- B+ B- B+ F+ C- D C- B- B- C- C C+ 41% 22% 37% C C+ C C- C B+ D+ C- D+
1.11 62% 36% 34% +2 +2 1.09 37% 1.1 .40 21% .30 69% .21 1.04 54% 40% 33% -2 0 0.99 30% 1.0 .32 20% .33 73% .22
Nov
8		 Boise St. C A B+ F C- 45% 22% 33% B+ C C A+ A F A+ A+ A+ F F A- D F+ 51% 14% 35% D F+ D+ F F D- F C- F
1.03 70% 45% 18% -1 0 1.00 22% 1.7 .37 21% .41 79% .32 1.35 73% 29% 39% +9 +2 1.24 37% 1.4 .50 12% .52 79% .41
Nov
15		 Fresno St. C+ C- D+ A B+ 50% 14% 36% A- A- D- A+ B- D+ A+ F A C+ D F F F 45% 18% 36% C- F A+ F B A+ F A D-
1.04 59% 33% 38% +2 +2 1.09 22% 1.6 .34 21% .50 54% .27 1.06 65% 50% 44% +11 +1 1.25 12% 2.0 .24 24% .41 68% .28
Nov
19		 UC Irvine B+ A- F C B+ 71% 10% 18% A+ A B A- A- B A+ F C C B B- A+ A 34% 32% 34% B+ A C+ F D- D+ D- F F
1.12 60% 20% 33% -1 +4 1.08 38% 1.1 .41 16% .42 44% .19 1.02 50% 35% 22% -10 -2 0.79 29% 1.3 .39 16% .35 76% .27
Nov
25		 South Dakota St. C- D+ F B D+ 48% 14% 38% B+ C- A B+ A+ F F A F+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 34% 16% 50% C A+ F+ A+ B+ A+ D- D F+
1.07 54% 29% 37% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.2 .48 23% .20 82% .17 0.74 40% 71% 18% -13 0 0.77 34% 0.7 .24 30% .33 75% .25
Nov
26		 Samford B B+ D+ A B 64% 14% 21% A+ A B B B+ F D B+ D+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ 34% 21% 45% C A+ F+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.21 64% 38% 42% +6 +3 1.20 32% 1.2 .39 18% .25 80% .20 0.61 22% 27% 25% -20 0 0.60 30% 0.6 .18 22% .21 42% .09
Dec
3		 San Diego St. C A- F B+ B 31% 16% 53% B- B+ B B+ B+ F C D- D+ B- C- A- C- B+ 35% 35% 29% B+ B+ D- D+ D- B- F D+ F
0.94 64% 0% 38% -1 0 1.00 32% 1.0 .32 27% .29 67% .20 1.10 65% 29% 36% 0 -2 0.98 36% 1.2 .42 19% .49 79% .38
Dec
6		 Bowling Green B+ A+ A+ B A+ 52% 8% 40% A A+ B+ F+ C F D D- D- B F A- A+ A- 43% 19% 39% B A- D+ F F+ B- D+ A C
1.14 76% 75% 37% +14 +3 1.35 35% 0.9 .31 24% .27 67% .18 0.99 74% 30% 14% -6 +1 0.91 30% 1.1 .33 18% .34 65% .22
Dec
10		 Idaho St. F+ A+ C- F C- 44% 16% 40% B- C- A F C- F C+ B+ B- B- A F D- C+ 45% 10% 45% F+ C A+ A+ A+ B- C B- C+
1.06 75% 43% 22% +1 +1 1.07 41% 0.8 .31 25% .33 82% .27 1.01 43% 60% 39% -1 +2 1.04 24% 0.8 .18 19% .31 71% .22
Dec
13		 UC Santa Barbara F+ F A+ C- F 45% 11% 45% A- F+ A- F C F C- B+ C+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 57% 22% 22% D A+ C+ C+ C+ A+ B- F C-
1.01 43% 60% 33% -5 +2 0.96 35% 0.8 .30 22% .34 78% .27 0.78 35% 30% 20% -20 +1 0.65 31% 1.0 .31 28% .29 86% .25
Dec
17		 Weber St. A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 47% 9% 45% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ C B C+ D+ B- A+ C+ A- 60% 16% 24% D B F C- F D D+ B+ C
1.37 68% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.30 50% 1.4 .69 20% .32 76% .25 1.13 53% 13% 33% -7 +2 0.92 42% 1.0 .42 14% .37 67% .25
Dec
29		 California Baptist C- A C+ D+ A 57% 19% 24% A- A F F F A- C F F B+ F F B F 53% 23% 25% C F A+ A+ A+ A+ F F F
1.04 68% 40% 31% +5 +2 1.15 9% 0.7 .06 11% .32 45% .14 0.94 67% 67% 30% +9 +1 1.23 28% 0.0 .00 33% .42 85% .36
Jan
1		 Tarleton St. A- B F+ B C+ 59% 7% 35% A+ B B D+ C+ C+ A+ B- A+ D A- F B+ B 47% 22% 31% D- C+ B+ F C- F F F F
1.20 67% 33% 38% +7 +3 1.22 38% 1.0 .38 22% .61 75% .46 1.12 46% 50% 29% -5 0 0.93 26% 1.3 .33 12% .48 88% .42
Jan
3		 Abilene Christian D C D B C 49% 7% 44% B+ C+ B- A- B+ F F B- F+ F C- F F F 51% 29% 20% C- F B- C C+ F A+ F B-
0.98 60% 33% 39% +4 +2 1.15 31% 1.3 .38 32% .34 75% .25 1.23 57% 56% 45% +8 0 1.18 30% 0.9 .27 14% .22 92% .20
Jan
8		 Southern Utah B A F A+ B+ 52% 19% 30% B+ B+ A+ C- A- F B- F C C+ A+ A+ F C 40% 19% 42% C- C B- F C- C F A+ C-
1.22 68% 30% 44% +8 +1 1.20 46% 0.9 .43 21% .28 63% .17 0.99 43% 20% 45% -2 0 0.98 26% 1.2 .31 19% .32 58% .19
Jan
10		 Utah Tech B C- A+ D- C 54% 13% 33% B+ C+ C- A+ A D A+ A+ A+ B B+ D+ C- B 49% 21% 30% C- B C F F+ A+ F F F
1.20 59% 57% 28% 0 +2 1.06 31% 1.5 .47 18% .43 89% .38 0.99 52% 40% 36% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.2 .35 25% .35 90% .31
Jan
17		 Texas Arlington A B C+ C- B 44% 30% 26% C B A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F B- D+ C+ A A+ A- 41% 22% 37% B- B+ F F F B- F D- F
1.24 64% 40% 31% +2 -1 1.04 45% 1.6 .73 16% .48 61% .29 1.07 53% 30% 24% -10 0 0.83 42% 1.4 .58 22% .48 77% .37
Jan
21		 Southern Utah D- F+ F F F 48% 13% 39% A- F B C- B- C- A F B- F+ C A- F F 36% 23% 40% B- F F D F A F F F
0.99 48% 14% 23% -14 +2 0.77 37% 0.9 .35 14% .33 60% .20 1.19 59% 27% 53% +9 -1 1.19 39% 1.1 .43 24% .35 84% .30
Jan
24		 California Baptist D D+ A+ F F 58% 11% 30% A+ D- B F C- F+ A+ C- A+ B- C+ A- F D- 50% 22% 28% C D- A C B+ A F C+ F
0.93 52% 50% 13% -12 +3 0.83 30% 0.7 .21 18% .52 72% .37 1.03 52% 30% 46% 0 +1 1.04 29% 0.9 .26 22% .53 71% .37
Jan
29		 Tarleton St. B+ C D+ A+ B 51% 18% 31% B- B A A+ A+ F F+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 37% 30% 33% B A+ C- B C+ A+ F A- F
1.15 61% 38% 50% +9 +1 1.22 43% 1.5 .65 28% .31 94% .29 0.76 25% 15% 36% -18 -1 0.63 32% 0.9 .29 26% .55 69% .38
Feb
5		 Abilene Christian D- C+ F F F 62% 11% 28% A D- A- A- A+ F C F F A A+ A F D- 34% 27% 39% B- D B- A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+
0.99 62% 20% 23% -4 +3 1.00 37% 1.3 .47 29% .43 52% .23 0.80 40% 25% 53% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.5 .15 29% .31 47% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Texas Arlington A+ F A+ A+ A+ 37% 12% 51% A- A+ A+ B- A+ C A A+ A+ C C- F A+ F 55% 24% 21% C F C- A+ A A F B+ F
1.38 47% 60% 52% +13 +1 1.29 42% 1.2 .50 17% .45 91% .41 1.02 56% 88% 14% +4 +1 1.12 36% 0.6 .23 25% .64 68% .43
Feb
12		 Utah Tech B- A+ A+ D A+ 53% 12% 35% B+ A+ B F F F C+ F D+ D- C+ F F F+ 47% 20% 33% C- F+ F F F B- D A C-
1.14 77% 50% 29% +9 +2 1.24 38% 0.5 .19 22% .30 63% .19 1.20 58% 60% 41% +8 +1 1.20 37% 1.3 .47 18% .29 63% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 11.4 32.2 19.8 64.2 1st
2nd 0.3 5.4 14.0 3.1 22.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.3 2.8 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
Total 0.0 0.6 3.6 12.5 28.2 35.3 19.8 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 19.8    19.8
13-5 91.3% 32.2    18.0 12.6 1.6
12-6 40.3% 11.4    2.6 6.0 2.7
11-7 6.5% 0.8    0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 64.2% 64.2 40.4 18.9 4.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 19.8% 60.5% 60.5% 12.1 0.9 8.7 2.3 0.0 7.8
13-5 35.3% 55.2% 55.2% 12.6 0.1 8.1 10.4 0.9 15.8
12-6 28.2% 46.6% 46.6% 12.9 0.0 3.3 8.2 1.5 0.0 15.1
11-7 12.5% 37.5% 37.5% 13.1 0.7 3.0 1.0 0.0 7.8
10-8 3.6% 29.2% 29.2% 13.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.6
9-9 0.6% 27.8% 27.8% 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
8-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 50.5% 50.5% 0.0% 12.6 49.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.0% 100.0% 12.1 7.9 72.4 19.4 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.7%