Preseason Rankings
Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#119
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.8#127
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#161
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#105
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.9% 45.1% 33.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 12.3 13.3
.500 or above 81.6% 93.6% 79.0%
.500 or above in Conference 87.8% 94.0% 86.4%
Conference Champion 47.3% 61.1% 44.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 0.9% 2.7%
First Four1.0% 0.3% 1.1%
First Round36.1% 45.2% 34.1%
Second Round4.1% 7.8% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.3% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Away) - 17.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 57 - 8
Quad 412 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2025 62   @ Boise St. L 64-74 18%    
  Nov 15, 2025 198   @ Fresno St. W 76-74 56%    
  Nov 19, 2025 93   UC Irvine W 71-70 50%    
  Nov 25, 2025 151   South Dakota St. W 74-72 57%    
  Nov 26, 2025 166   Samford W 78-75 61%    
  Dec 03, 2025 38   @ San Diego St. L 60-74 11%    
  Dec 06, 2025 220   @ Bowling Green W 73-70 60%    
  Dec 10, 2025 282   Idaho St. W 74-62 86%    
  Dec 13, 2025 135   UC Santa Barbara W 70-69 53%    
  Dec 17, 2025 279   Weber St. W 74-62 84%    
  Dec 29, 2025 169   California Baptist W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 01, 2026 274   @ Tarleton St. W 69-63 68%    
  Jan 03, 2026 175   @ Abilene Christian W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 08, 2026 268   Southern Utah W 77-66 83%    
  Jan 10, 2026 271   Utah Tech W 76-65 83%    
  Jan 17, 2026 202   Texas Arlington W 75-67 74%    
  Jan 21, 2026 268   @ Southern Utah W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 24, 2026 169   @ California Baptist W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 29, 2026 274   @ Tarleton St. W 69-63 68%    
  Feb 05, 2026 175   Abilene Christian W 74-67 71%    
  Feb 07, 2026 202   Texas Arlington W 75-67 74%    
  Feb 12, 2026 271   @ Utah Tech W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 19, 2026 169   California Baptist W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 21, 2026 202   @ Texas Arlington W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 26, 2026 274   Tarleton St. W 72-60 83%    
  Feb 28, 2026 175   Abilene Christian W 74-67 70%    
  Mar 05, 2026 268   @ Southern Utah W 74-69 66%    
  Mar 07, 2026 271   @ Utah Tech W 73-68 67%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.8 6.4 9.5 10.7 8.7 6.0 2.4 47.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.4 6.3 5.5 2.8 0.8 0.1 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.4 4.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.9 0.7 0.1 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 7th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.1 3.3 4.6 6.1 7.8 9.6 10.9 12.2 12.3 11.5 8.8 6.0 2.4 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.4    2.4
17-1 100.0% 6.0    6.0
16-2 99.0% 8.7    8.5 0.2
15-3 93.2% 10.7    9.5 1.2 0.0
14-4 77.2% 9.5    7.0 2.4 0.1
13-5 52.2% 6.4    3.7 2.4 0.3 0.0
12-6 25.4% 2.8    0.9 1.4 0.4 0.0
11-7 7.1% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
10-8 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 47.3% 47.3 38.0 8.0 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.4% 76.1% 75.5% 0.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.1%
17-1 6.0% 70.3% 70.2% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.9 0.7 0.2 1.8 0.5%
16-2 8.8% 60.9% 60.8% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.5 0.1%
15-3 11.5% 55.3% 55.3% 12.8 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.2
14-4 12.3% 45.9% 45.9% 13.3 0.1 1.1 2.3 1.7 0.5 0.0 6.7
13-5 12.2% 36.5% 36.5% 13.8 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.8 0.7 0.1 7.8
12-6 10.9% 32.8% 32.8% 14.5 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.2 7.3
11-7 9.6% 22.1% 22.1% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.4 7.5
10-8 7.8% 14.7% 14.7% 16.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 6.7
9-9 6.1% 9.5% 9.5% 17.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 5.6
8-10 4.6% 8.7% 8.7% 16.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.2
7-11 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.2
6-12 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.0
5-13 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 35.9% 35.9% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 3.5 8.8 9.9 7.6 4.1 2.0 64.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.7 7.7 23.1 8.1 8.1 22.7 22.7 7.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 8.0 100.0
Lose Out 0.0%