Utah Tech
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#251
Expected Predictive Rating-4.1#232
Pace68.0#223
Improvement+1.9#72

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#240
First Shot-0.2#177
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#333
Layup/Dunks+0.8#148
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#147
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#154
Freethrows-2.2#311
Improvement+3.4#10

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#254
First Shot-2.8#273
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#168
Layups/Dunks-5.5#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#81
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#162
Freethrows+0.6#142
Improvement-1.5#296
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 2.5% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 8.3% 10.2% 2.6%
.500 or above in Conference 22.3% 26.4% 9.8%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.3% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 22.6% 15.2% 44.9%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
First Round1.9% 2.2% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Home) - 75.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 33 - 74 - 15
Quad 47 - 411 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 291 @South Dakota W 81-79 OT 45%     1 - 0 -1.8 -8.1 +6.0
  Fri, Nov 7 2 @Arizona L 67-93 1%     1 - 1 +0.3 +6.7 -6.0
  Sun, Nov 9 71 @Arizona St. L 66-81 8%     1 - 2 -4.2 -4.2 +0.2
  Wed, Nov 12 313 Manhattan L 75-79 64%     1 - 3 -12.8 +0.9 -14.1
  Fri, Nov 14 365 Mississippi Valley W 81-75 2OT 94%     2 - 3 -17.1 -5.5 -12.0
  Sat, Nov 15 109 @Hawaii L 62-68 13%     2 - 4 +0.8 -3.2 +4.1
  Tue, Nov 25 173 Portland St. L 63-68 46%     2 - 5 -9.0 -9.2 +0.2
  Sat, Nov 29 272 UC Riverside W 77-69 64%     3 - 5 -1.0 +6.9 -7.1
  Wed, Dec 3 86 @Santa Clara L 80-90 9%     3 - 6 -0.4 +4.5 -4.0
  Sat, Dec 20 223 @Weber St. W 82-80 34%     4 - 6 +1.2 +11.8 -10.6
  Mon, Dec 22 36 @Creighton L 69-92 3%     4 - 7 -6.8 +2.1 -8.2
  Mon, Dec 29 319 Southern Utah W 77-70 75%    
  Thu, Jan 1 204 @Abilene Christian L 67-72 31%    
  Thu, Jan 8 134 @California Baptist L 66-76 18%    
  Sat, Jan 10 85 @Utah Valley L 64-79 9%    
  Thu, Jan 15 167 Texas Arlington L 67-69 44%    
  Sat, Jan 17 180 Tarleton St. L 74-75 48%    
  Wed, Jan 21 134 @California Baptist L 66-76 18%    
  Sat, Jan 24 319 Southern Utah W 77-70 75%    
  Thu, Jan 29 204 @Abilene Christian L 67-72 31%    
  Sat, Jan 31 180 @Tarleton St. L 71-78 27%    
  Thu, Feb 5 167 Texas Arlington L 67-69 45%    
  Thu, Feb 12 85 Utah Valley L 67-76 21%    
  Sat, Feb 14 134 California Baptist L 69-73 36%    
  Thu, Feb 19 167 @Texas Arlington L 64-72 25%    
  Sat, Feb 21 180 @Tarleton St. L 71-78 28%    
  Thu, Feb 26 204 Abilene Christian W 70-69 53%    
  Sat, Feb 28 319 @Southern Utah W 74-73 55%    
  Sat, Mar 7 85 Utah Valley L 67-76 22%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.0 3.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 9.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.8 4.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 15.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 6.0 8.8 5.4 1.2 0.1 23.5 5th
6th 0.4 2.0 6.1 9.8 8.3 3.6 0.6 0.0 30.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.0 4.5 4.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 15.2 7th
Total 0.1 1.0 3.3 6.5 10.2 13.7 15.2 15.0 12.5 9.3 6.1 3.7 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 87.5% 0.0    0.0
15-3 93.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 65.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 44.4% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 15.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
11-7 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 37.9% 37.9% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 16.3% 16.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.8% 18.4% 18.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7
12-6 2.0% 12.4% 12.4% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
11-7 3.7% 9.6% 9.6% 14.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 3.3
10-8 6.1% 5.3% 5.3% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 5.8
9-9 9.3% 3.4% 3.4% 15.8 0.1 0.3 9.0
8-10 12.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 12.2
7-11 15.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 14.8
6-12 15.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 15.1
5-13 13.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.6
4-14 10.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.2
3-15 6.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.5
2-16 3.3% 3.3
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%