Utah Tech
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.7 205
Expected Predictive Rating -0.6 173
Pace 67.6 213
Improvement +3.6 43

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #194 C+ D C D- C+
Defense C- #228 C C- C- C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 168 62% 84 +1.8 114
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 225 36% 233 -1.3 249
Three Pointers 43% 137 35% 150 +1.5 121
1st FG Attempt 1.06 114 +2.0 115
Second Chance 28.6% 234 0.88 339 0.25 307
Turnovers 16.7% 166
Freethrows 0.24 348 71% 225 0.17 345
Total Offense -1.1 194

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 56 63% 308 -5.1 337
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 303 37% 133 +1.8 49
Three Pointers 40% 204 30% 45 +2.6 77
1st FG Attempt 1.03 201 -0.7 200
Second Chance 32.2% 245 1.03 187 0.33 232
Turnovers 16.1% 227
Freethrows 0.30 178 73% 207 0.22 173
Total Defense -1.6 228

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.4 142 +0.9 325
Shot Type Accuracy +1.6 114 -0.2 176
Possession Length 17.7 220 17.5 215
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 228 0.18 221
Improvement +3.5 #35 +0.1 #181

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.1% 9.7% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 43.5% 66.3% 32.8%
.500 or above in Conference 87.7% 98.1% 82.8%
Conference Champion 5.8% 15.2% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.6% 0.3% 0.7%
First Round6.9% 9.6% 5.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 31.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 36 - 56 - 13
Quad 49 - 215 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 276 @South Dakota W 81 - 79 OT 54% +2  66% 1 - 0 C- -2 F+ -10 C- F D+ B+ +8 A+ C+ C-
 Fri, Nov 7 2 @Arizona L 67 - 93 1% -11  8% 1 - 1 C+ +2 B- +5 C+ B- C- C- -3 F A+ B
 Sun, Nov 9 74 @Arizona St. L 66 - 81 11% -11  0% 1 - 2 C- -4 D- -6 C- C- D B- +2 B+ D+ F+
 Wed, Nov 12 324 Manhattan L 75 - 79 76% -3  12% 1 - 3 D- -14 C- -2 F+ C B+ F -12 F F B
 Fri, Nov 14 365 Mississippi Valley W 81 - 75 2OT 96% +3  69% 2 - 3 F -18 D- -8 D F B F+ -11 F A- F
 Sat, Nov 15 102 @Hawaii L 62 - 68 16% -6  0% 2 - 4 C+ +2 D- -6 C F D+ A- +8 B+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 141 Portland St. L 63 - 68 47% -1  41% 2 - 5 D+ -7 F -10 C+ F C+ B- +3 B+ B- A-
 Sat, Nov 29 295 UC Riverside W 77 - 69 78% +4  87% 3 - 5 C- -3 B- +5 B- C A D -7 D- D D+
 Wed, Dec 3 44 @Santa Clara L 80 - 90 6% -12  0% 3 - 6 B- +5 B- +4 A+ D F C+ +2 C+ D+ B
 Sat, Dec 20 231 @Weber St. W 82 - 80 43% +1  59% 4 - 6 C +1 B+ +8 A F B+ D -7 F A+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 62 @Creighton L 69 - 92 9% -11  0% 4 - 7 D -11 D -4 B C+ F D -6 F A+ C+
 Mon, Dec 29 284 Southern Utah W 80 - 66 76% +2  51% 5 - 7 1 - 0 C+ +4 C- -2 C+ D+ D- B +5 B- C+ C+
 Thu, Jan 1 264 @Abilene Christian W 79 - 64 50% +14  83% 6 - 7 2 - 0 B+ +12 B+ +9 A+ D- C- B +4 D- B+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 139 @California Baptist L 72 - 84 25% -7  5% 6 - 8 2 - 1 D+ -8 A- +10 A F+ C+ F -19 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 95 @Utah Valley L 76 - 92 15% -7  9% 6 - 9 2 - 2 D+ -8 C- -1 C+ B- F D+ -5 C+ D D
 Thu, Jan 15 170 Texas Arlington L 52 - 56 54% -5  8% 6 - 10 2 - 3 D+ -8 F -21 F C- A A+ +13 A- A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 218 Tarleton St. W 75 - 71 63% +6  99% 7 - 10 3 - 3 C- -2 C- -0 B D- C C -2 B A F
 Wed, Jan 21 139 @California Baptist L 64 - 73 25% -5  8% 7 - 11 3 - 4 D+ -5 C +2 D- A- A+ D- -8 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 284 Southern Utah W 102 - 91 76% +8  91% 8 - 11 4 - 4 C +1 A+ +19 B+ A A+ F -19 F D- F
 Thu, Jan 29 264 @Abilene Christian W 76 - 70 50% +7  99% 9 - 11 5 - 4 C+ +3 C- -2 C C+ F B +5 C+ F C
 Sat, Jan 31 218 @Tarleton St. W 65 - 59 40% +1  46% 10 - 11 6 - 4 B- +6 C- -1 A+ F C+ B+ +8 A+ F C+
 Thu, Feb 5 170 Texas Arlington W 87 - 84 2OT 54% +1  49% 11 - 11 7 - 4 C -1 B- +5 B B A D -6 B- F F
 Thu, Feb 12 95 Utah Valley L 72 - 77 32%
 Sat, Feb 14 139 California Baptist L 69 - 70 47%
 Thu, Feb 19 170 @Texas Arlington L 67 - 72 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 218 @Tarleton St. L 72 - 75 40%
 Thu, Feb 26 264 Abilene Christian W 74 - 68 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 284 @Southern Utah W 76 - 75 55%
 Sat, Mar 7 95 Utah Valley L 72 - 77 32%
Totals 14 - 15 10 - 8 -3 C- -1 C+ D C C- -2 C C- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B- C- C+ C+ 39% 18% 43% C+ C+ C- D- D C F+ C- D- C- D C+ B+ C 43% 16% 40% D C C- C C- C- C C C
1.07 62% 36% 35% +2 0 1.06 29% 0.9 .25 17% .24 71% .17 1.11 63% 37% 30% 0 +1 1.03 32% 1.0 .33 16% .30 73% .17
Nov
3		 South Dakota F+ C A+ F D+ 54% 8% 38% B C- D F F D+ F F F B+ B- C+ A+ A+ 49% 24% 27% C A+ D B+ C+ C- F C- F
0.98 61% 80% 26% 0 +3 1.08 28% 0.6 .16 18% .19 62% .12 0.96 52% 36% 13% -12 0 0.78 32% 0.9 .27 17% .51 77% .39
Nov
7		 Arizona B- B+ D+ F+ C+ 26% 26% 48% B- C+ B+ C- B- C- A+ B- A+ C- F B F F 47% 26% 26% C- F C A+ A+ B B B B+
0.94 58% 33% 27% -6 -2 0.87 29% 0.8 .24 20% .47 70% .33 1.31 84% 36% 50% +18 0 1.38 41% 0.5 .22 17% .34 70% .24
Nov
9		 Arizona St. D- C+ C- D+ C- 24% 22% 53% D C- D- B+ C- D A+ F B- B- C- B B- B 36% 26% 38% B B+ B- F D+ F+ A+ C A
0.93 58% 36% 31% -3 -1 0.94 25% 1.2 .30 23% .40 59% .24 1.14 62% 33% 32% -1 -1 0.98 30% 1.5 .43 11% .25 75% .19
Nov
12		 Manhattan C- F+ C- D+ F 38% 15% 46% C+ F+ B D C B+ C+ F D+ F D+ C+ F F 52% 17% 30% F F F D+ F B F D- F
1.16 50% 38% 33% -4 +1 0.96 43% 1.0 .43 12% .26 60% .16 1.22 58% 38% 43% +4 +1 1.13 38% 1.1 .41 19% .38 85% .32
Nov
14		 Mississippi Valley D- A+ B+ F D 32% 17% 51% C- D D+ F F B B+ F C+ F+ F D+ A F 31% 29% 41% F F C+ A+ A- F A F B+
1.09 82% 44% 26% +3 0 1.08 34% 0.6 .22 15% .44 68% .30 1.01 83% 41% 25% +3 -2 1.05 22% 0.5 .11 16% .18 82% .14
Nov
15		 Hawaii D- A- C- F C+ 35% 26% 39% D C F F F D+ D A- C- A- D- F A+ A- 50% 17% 33% C- B+ C- F F A+ F F F
0.88 63% 36% 24% -5 -1 0.91 14% 0.8 .11 18% .26 73% .19 0.96 67% 57% 7% -6 +1 0.93 32% 1.7 .54 27% .49 84% .41
Nov
25		 Portland St. F A- D+ F B- 43% 21% 36% C C+ F F F C+ F B+ F B- D+ A+ A B+ 43% 19% 38% C+ B+ F A+ B- A- F C- F
0.89 67% 33% 25% -2 0 0.98 10% 0.7 .06 18% .17 80% .14 0.96 60% 22% 28% -6 0 0.91 41% 0.6 .26 24% .44 71% .31
Nov
29		 UC Riverside B- C- A+ C+ B 49% 22% 29% C B- F A+ C A C- A+ B D F F A- F+ 39% 22% 39% C+ D- C- D- D D+ D+ B- C-
1.22 58% 64% 36% +7 +1 1.16 22% 1.4 .30 11% .32 83% .27 1.09 72% 50% 28% +5 0 1.11 29% 1.0 .29 17% .32 71% .23
Dec
3		 Santa Clara B- A D+ B A+ 45% 11% 45% B A+ A+ F D F F A+ F C+ F C+ B+ B- 38% 12% 50% D+ C+ F B D+ B B- A+ A-
1.05 72% 33% 36% +7 +2 1.20 44% 0.6 .25 29% .15 100% .15 1.18 74% 43% 30% +4 +1 1.12 45% 1.0 .45 18% .21 54% .11
Dec
20		 Weber St. B+ A+ A+ B A+ 28% 28% 44% F A C- F F B+ A- F B- D D- A+ F F 51% 5% 44% F F A A+ A+ C F D+ F
1.23 86% 57% 36% +15 -2 1.28 29% 0.4 .13 14% .40 65% .26 1.20 64% 0% 53% +14 +3 1.35 23% 0.3 .08 17% .54 73% .40
Dec
22		 Creighton D B D+ C- B- 49% 17% 34% A B F A+ C+ F F+ F+ F+ D F B+ F F 43% 5% 52% F F C+ A+ A+ C+ C+ C+ C+
0.96 62% 33% 33% +1 +1 1.06 17% 1.8 .30 21% .14 63% .09 1.28 75% 33% 45% +16 +2 1.38 28% 0.4 .13 15% .25 73% .18
Dec
29		 Southern Utah C- C- F A+ C 53% 11% 36% A C+ B F D+ D- D F D- B A- F+ B B+ 51% 14% 35% F B- C B C+ C+ F A+ F+
1.11 55% 17% 45% +2 +2 1.11 38% 0.7 .28 17% .22 62% .13 0.92 48% 43% 29% -7 +2 0.92 28% 0.9 .26 21% .37 62% .23
Jan
1		 Abilene Christian B+ A A+ A+ A+ 37% 11% 52% C A+ D+ F D- C- F A+ F B F A+ A+ D- 46% 22% 33% D- D- C+ A B+ A+ F+ C+ D-
1.19 71% 60% 46% +16 +1 1.37 26% 0.8 .22 23% .23 92% .21 0.96 86% 20% 20% +2 0 1.07 31% 0.7 .21 27% .39 68% .27
Jan
8		 California Baptist A- A- D A A 49% 19% 32% B A B- F F+ C+ C+ B B- F B D C C 46% 15% 39% D+ C F F F F F D- F
1.15 65% 33% 40% +6 +1 1.15 29% 0.4 .13 14% .34 78% .26 1.35 48% 43% 33% -4 +1 0.96 52% 1.4 .73 11% .47 77% .36
Jan
10		 Utah Valley C- D+ C+ B- C 49% 21% 30% B- C+ C- A- B- F C+ A+ A D+ C F A C+ 54% 13% 33% C- C+ B+ F D D F F F
0.99 52% 40% 36% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.2 .35 25% .35 90% .31 1.20 59% 57% 28% 0 +2 1.06 31% 1.5 .47 18% .43 89% .38
Jan
15		 Texas Arlington F F F F F 51% 23% 26% B+ F B- F C- A F+ F F A+ A B A A+ 62% 13% 26% F A- B- A+ A+ B+ D- F F
0.77 44% 17% 7% -22 +1 0.58 32% 0.9 .28 12% .30 50% .15 0.83 41% 33% 25% -14 +3 0.79 33% 0.5 .15 24% .41 81% .33
Jan
17		 Tarleton St. C- A+ F C B- 38% 11% 51% B- B F B- D- C B+ C+ B+ C C+ F A+ A- 57% 17% 26% F B F A+ A F D+ A+ B+
1.08 88% 0% 35% +8 +1 1.20 23% 1.2 .27 23% .43 74% .32 1.02 55% 50% 13% -8 +2 0.90 39% 0.6 .22 11% .36 59% .21
Jan
21		 California Baptist C F F A+ D- 36% 28% 36% D D- B A A- A+ F A+ F+ D- B- B B- C+ 49% 18% 33% C- C+ B- F F F F+ A+ C+
1.03 37% 20% 42% -8 -1 0.83 31% 1.2 .36 10% .18 100% .18 1.18 50% 33% 31% -6 +1 0.92 35% 1.4 .49 11% .38 57% .22
Jan
24		 Southern Utah A+ B B+ A B 52% 18% 31% B+ B+ C+ A+ A A+ B- B+ B F F A B- F 50% 24% 26% D+ F C- F D- F F F F
1.41 63% 45% 42% +7 +1 1.19 34% 1.3 .46 4% .29 75% .22 1.26 76% 25% 31% +5 0 1.12 30% 1.2 .37 12% .47 80% .38
Jan
29		 Abilene Christian C- B- F A+ C 45% 17% 38% C C C+ C+ C+ F A+ F+ A- B C A+ B- B 48% 14% 38% F C+ B- F F C A- A+ A+
1.03 63% 14% 44% +4 +1 1.12 31% 1.1 .34 28% .57 67% .38 0.95 54% 14% 32% -6 +2 0.92 30% 1.5 .43 20% .26 53% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Tarleton St. C- A D+ A+ A+ 30% 17% 52% D+ A+ F F F C+ F F F B+ A- C- A+ A+ 46% 10% 44% F A+ F C+ F C+ C F+ D+
1.02 71% 38% 50% +17 0 1.35 21% 0.0 .00 22% .16 38% .06 0.93 45% 40% 14% -18 +2 0.69 44% 1.0 .44 20% .34 82% .28
Feb
5		 Texas Arlington B- D B A B- 48% 21% 31% B+ B B B- B A F+ C- F+ D C D+ A+ B 46% 18% 36% C- B- B F F F A+ A+ A+
1.14 54% 42% 39% +1 +1 1.05 33% 1.2 .39 12% .30 70% .21 1.10 55% 42% 21% -8 +1 0.88 33% 1.4 .47 10% .16 64% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.3 2.7 0.6 5.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 6.4 6.7 0.8 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 7.9 18.3 14.8 2.4 44.3 3rd
4th 0.9 8.2 14.3 7.8 1.0 32.2 4th
5th 1.0 1.1 0.2 2.2 5th
6th 0.2 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 7th
Total 2.1 10.3 22.5 27.4 22.3 11.4 3.5 0.6 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.0
13-5 77.4% 2.7    1.2 1.3 0.3
12-6 20.3% 2.3    0.3 1.0 0.9 0.1
11-7 1.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 2.0 2.4 1.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.6% 27.0% 27.0% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
13-5 3.5% 19.2% 19.2% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 2.8
12-6 11.4% 14.8% 14.8% 14.4 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.0 9.8
11-7 22.3% 8.6% 8.6% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.1 20.4
10-8 27.4% 5.4% 5.4% 15.1 0.1 1.2 0.2 25.9
9-9 22.5% 4.1% 4.1% 15.8 0.2 0.7 21.5
8-10 10.3% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.3 10.0
7-11 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 2.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 14.8 92.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.1 16.7 53.3 30.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 1.1%