Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#199
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#112
Pace70.6#156
Improvement+0.0#194

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#212
First Shot-0.9#198
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#221
Layup/Dunks+0.3#166
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#48
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#331
Freethrows+1.8#84
Improvement-1.0#263

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#198
First Shot-0.5#193
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#229
Layups/Dunks+3.7#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#245
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#269
Freethrows-1.4#267
Improvement+0.9#110
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.1% 7.3% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 50.2% 51.8% 22.1%
.500 or above in Conference 50.5% 51.5% 33.4%
Conference Champion 5.5% 5.6% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 10.0% 9.6% 17.9%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
First Round6.9% 7.1% 3.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Away) - 94.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 33 - 44 - 11
Quad 410 - 314 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 35 @SMU L 76-96 5%     0 - 1 -4.1 +7.7 -11.0
  Wed, Nov 5 38 @LSU L 60-96 6%     0 - 2 -21.0 -3.6 -18.4
  Sat, Nov 8 208 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85-77 64%     1 - 2 +1.8 +13.1 -11.2
  Tue, Nov 11 268 Merrimack W 76-62 72%     2 - 2 +5.3 -4.0 +8.6
  Fri, Nov 14 33 @Baylor L 81-94 5%     2 - 3 +3.4 +9.5 -5.6
  Thu, Nov 20 215 @Rice W 90-74 42%     3 - 3 +15.6 +11.4 +3.2
  Mon, Dec 1 68 @Cincinnati L 58-76 11%     3 - 4 -6.8 -4.8 -1.7
  Tue, Dec 16 365 @Mississippi Valley W 81-64 95%    
  Fri, Dec 19 341 Florida A&M W 80-68 86%    
  Mon, Dec 29 175 @Texas Arlington L 68-72 34%    
  Thu, Jan 1 87 Utah Valley L 70-76 30%    
  Sat, Jan 3 132 California Baptist L 71-73 43%    
  Thu, Jan 8 222 Abilene Christian W 71-67 64%    
  Thu, Jan 15 319 @Southern Utah W 77-74 62%    
  Sat, Jan 17 259 @Utah Tech L 72-73 49%    
  Wed, Jan 21 175 @Texas Arlington L 68-72 34%    
  Sat, Jan 24 222 Abilene Christian W 71-67 64%    
  Thu, Jan 29 87 Utah Valley L 70-76 30%    
  Sat, Jan 31 259 Utah Tech W 75-69 70%    
  Thu, Feb 5 132 @California Baptist L 68-76 24%    
  Sat, Feb 7 319 @Southern Utah W 77-74 62%    
  Sat, Feb 14 222 @Abilene Christian L 68-70 43%    
  Thu, Feb 19 319 Southern Utah W 80-71 80%    
  Sat, Feb 21 259 Utah Tech W 75-69 70%    
  Thu, Feb 26 87 @Utah Valley L 67-79 15%    
  Sat, Feb 28 132 @California Baptist L 68-76 25%    
  Thu, Mar 5 175 Texas Arlington W 71-69 56%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.7 4.3 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.6 7.2 5.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 20.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.1 7.2 7.4 3.2 0.6 0.0 22.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.7 7.0 4.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 19.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 2.1 4.3 4.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 13.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.1 7th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.2 4.1 6.8 9.7 12.0 13.5 13.4 12.2 9.6 6.8 4.5 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 99.3% 0.4    0.4 0.0
15-3 85.8% 0.9    0.7 0.2
14-4 63.5% 1.6    1.0 0.5 0.0
13-5 32.7% 1.5    0.7 0.6 0.1
12-6 11.0% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 3.2 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 39.4% 39.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 40.3% 40.3% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
15-3 1.1% 30.7% 30.7% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-4 2.5% 27.9% 27.9% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.8
13-5 4.5% 19.7% 19.7% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 3.6
12-6 6.8% 18.4% 18.4% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.5
11-7 9.6% 12.4% 12.4% 14.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 8.4
10-8 12.2% 8.0% 8.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 11.2
9-9 13.4% 4.7% 4.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 12.8
8-10 13.5% 2.9% 2.9% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 13.1
7-11 12.0% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 11.7
6-12 9.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 9.6
5-13 6.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.8
4-14 4.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.1
3-15 2.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.2
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.3 2.0 0.8 92.9 0.0%