Preseason Rankings
Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#273
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.6#279
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-6.1#336
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#163
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 9.9% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 13.7 14.8
.500 or above 20.4% 54.0% 19.5%
.500 or above in Conference 30.0% 53.4% 29.4%
Conference Champion 4.6% 14.1% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 29.8% 14.2% 30.2%
First Four0.9% 0.8% 0.9%
First Round4.7% 10.2% 4.5%
Second Round0.2% 1.7% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 2.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 48 - 611 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 46   @ SMU L 58-79 2%    
  Nov 05, 2025 53   @ LSU L 58-77 4%    
  Nov 08, 2025 222   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 65-64 52%    
  Nov 11, 2025 258   Merrimack W 61-59 57%    
  Nov 14, 2025 24   @ Baylor L 52-76 2%    
  Nov 20, 2025 172   @ Rice L 61-69 24%    
  Dec 01, 2025 45   @ Cincinnati L 52-73 3%    
  Dec 16, 2025 365   @ Mississippi Valley W 70-54 91%    
  Dec 19, 2025 338   Florida A&M W 70-62 75%    
  Dec 29, 2025 190   @ Texas Arlington L 63-70 28%    
  Jan 01, 2026 118   Utah Valley L 63-69 31%    
  Jan 03, 2026 174   California Baptist L 63-65 44%    
  Jan 08, 2026 166   Abilene Christian L 64-66 42%    
  Jan 15, 2026 271   @ Southern Utah L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 17, 2026 269   @ Utah Tech L 65-68 39%    
  Jan 21, 2026 190   @ Texas Arlington L 63-70 29%    
  Jan 24, 2026 166   Abilene Christian L 64-66 42%    
  Jan 29, 2026 118   Utah Valley L 63-69 32%    
  Jan 31, 2026 269   Utah Tech W 68-65 59%    
  Feb 05, 2026 174   @ California Baptist L 60-68 26%    
  Feb 07, 2026 271   @ Southern Utah L 65-68 41%    
  Feb 14, 2026 166   @ Abilene Christian L 61-69 25%    
  Feb 19, 2026 271   Southern Utah W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 21, 2026 269   Utah Tech W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 26, 2026 118   @ Utah Valley L 60-72 17%    
  Feb 28, 2026 174   @ California Baptist L 60-68 26%    
  Mar 05, 2026 190   Texas Arlington L 66-67 46%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.6 1st
2nd 0.2 1.2 2.5 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 8.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.2 3.9 2.4 0.7 0.1 11.0 3rd
4th 0.5 2.5 5.3 4.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 14.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.8 6.5 4.0 0.9 0.0 18.1 5th
6th 0.3 1.5 4.5 6.9 5.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 21.2 6th
7th 0.9 2.9 4.6 6.0 4.7 2.6 0.7 0.1 22.5 7th
Total 0.9 2.9 5.0 7.5 9.4 11.1 11.3 11.5 10.4 8.5 6.9 5.5 3.8 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 92.0% 0.7    0.6 0.1
14-4 76.1% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 46.2% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 19.3% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 5.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.6% 4.6 2.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 62.0% 62.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 45.7% 45.7% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.8% 40.1% 40.1% 13.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.5% 27.0% 27.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1
13-5 2.6% 26.0% 26.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.9
12-6 3.8% 19.6% 19.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 3.1
11-7 5.5% 14.7% 14.7% 16.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 4.7
10-8 6.9% 6.6% 6.6% 17.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 6.5
9-9 8.5% 5.4% 5.4% 18.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 8.1
8-10 10.4% 2.7% 2.7% 18.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 10.1
7-11 11.5% 1.6% 1.6% 18.2 0.0 0.2 11.4
6-12 11.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.2
5-13 11.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.1
4-14 9.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.4
3-15 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.5
2-16 5.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.0
1-17 2.9% 2.9
0-18 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.5 95.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%