Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#179
Expected Predictive Rating+8.5#67
Pace66.3#263
Improvement+0.4#154

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#215
First Shot-6.0#322
After Offensive Rebound+4.5#11
Layup/Dunks+1.7#115
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#209
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#328
Freethrows-0.7#221
Improvement+0.1#168

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#147
First Shot+0.7#150
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#182
Layups/Dunks+1.9#110
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#67
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#289
Freethrows+0.0#191
Improvement+0.3#159
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 6.3% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.3
.500 or above 64.8% 73.2% 48.3%
.500 or above in Conference 53.3% 57.4% 45.3%
Conference Champion 6.4% 7.6% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 2.9% 5.3%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round5.3% 6.0% 3.8%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Home) - 66.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 35 - 56 - 11
Quad 49 - 215 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 30   @ Virginia L 50-80 8%     0 - 1 -14.8 -8.2 -8.8
  Nov 09, 2023 228   @ Florida International W 82-65 48%     1 - 1 +16.9 +3.5 +12.0
  Nov 14, 2023 92   @ Bradley L 63-86 20%     1 - 2 -14.7 -2.9 -12.5
  Nov 20, 2023 275   Austin Peay W 66-59 71%     2 - 2 +0.8 +0.5 +1.2
  Nov 22, 2023 284   Cal St. Bakersfield W 59-40 71%     3 - 2 +12.5 +0.5 +17.3
  Nov 29, 2023 106   @ Stephen F. Austin W 68-66 23%     4 - 2 +9.1 +2.0 +7.2
  Dec 02, 2023 318   UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-75 85%     5 - 2 1 - 0 -9.7 -4.1 -5.6
  Dec 18, 2023 216   Jacksonville St. W 67-62 66%    
  Dec 21, 2023 8   @ Tennessee L 57-77 3%    
  Dec 29, 2023 125   @ Loyola Marymount L 66-72 28%    
  Jan 04, 2024 167   Texas Arlington W 71-68 58%    
  Jan 11, 2024 152   @ California Baptist L 63-67 37%    
  Jan 13, 2024 83   @ Grand Canyon L 65-75 19%    
  Jan 18, 2024 180   Abilene Christian W 71-68 62%    
  Jan 20, 2024 318   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 25, 2024 247   Southern Utah W 78-71 72%    
  Jan 27, 2024 218   Utah Tech W 61-56 67%    
  Feb 01, 2024 180   @ Abilene Christian L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 03, 2024 106   Stephen F. Austin L 69-71 45%    
  Feb 08, 2024 181   @ Utah Valley L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 10, 2024 136   @ Seattle L 65-71 31%    
  Feb 15, 2024 167   @ Texas Arlington L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 22, 2024 83   Grand Canyon L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 24, 2024 152   California Baptist W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 29, 2024 218   @ Utah Tech L 58-59 45%    
  Mar 02, 2024 247   @ Southern Utah W 75-74 52%    
  Mar 07, 2024 181   Utah Valley W 68-65 61%    
  Mar 09, 2024 136   Seattle W 69-68 51%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.4 1st
2nd 0.3 1.8 3.2 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.5 4.8 2.8 0.9 0.1 11.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.6 2.9 0.5 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 5.6 3.5 0.4 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 5.3 3.7 0.4 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 4.8 4.0 0.7 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.2 3.4 0.7 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.9 3.0 0.7 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.0 5.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.9 6.2 9.9 11.2 12.7 13.0 12.3 10.1 7.2 5.7 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 99.6% 0.5    0.5 0.1
16-4 84.6% 1.3    0.9 0.3 0.0
15-5 56.8% 1.7    0.9 0.7 0.1
14-6 34.6% 2.0    0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0
13-7 10.0% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
12-8 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.4% 6.4 3.3 2.2 0.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 37.3% 37.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.5% 42.6% 42.6% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-4 1.5% 24.8% 24.1% 0.7% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.1 0.9%
15-5 3.0% 16.3% 16.3% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.5
14-6 5.7% 13.8% 13.8% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.9
13-7 7.2% 9.1% 9.1% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 6.5
12-8 10.1% 9.1% 9.1% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 9.1
11-9 12.3% 6.0% 6.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 11.5
10-10 13.0% 3.6% 3.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 12.5
9-11 12.7% 3.0% 3.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 12.3
8-12 11.2% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.2 11.0
7-13 9.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 9.7
6-14 6.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.1
5-15 3.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.8
4-16 1.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.6 94.5 0.0%