Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#272
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#249
Pace66.1#245
Improvement+6.5#9

Offense
Total Offense-6.7#335
First Shot-4.0#294
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#323
Layup/Dunks+0.2#172
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#28
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.2#356
Freethrows-0.4#200
Improvement+3.2#35

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#148
First Shot+1.4#129
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#243
Layups/Dunks+6.2#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#253
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#318
Freethrows-0.3#208
Improvement+3.2#26
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.8% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.5% 1.1% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 25.2% 37.9% 16.4%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.4% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 24.6% 14.3% 31.8%
First Four0.8% 1.0% 0.7%
First Round0.9% 1.4% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Home) - 40.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 33 - 73 - 15
Quad 45 - 59 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 50   @ SMU L 62-96 5%     0 - 1 -20.4 -9.4 -9.2
  Nov 09, 2024 155   Sam Houston St. L 62-91 38%     0 - 2 -31.7 -20.2 -9.2
  Nov 12, 2024 63   @ Florida St. L 52-72 6%     0 - 3 -8.4 -16.5 +8.8
  Nov 17, 2024 15   @ Baylor L 41-104 2%     0 - 4 -43.3 -23.8 -18.9
  Nov 21, 2024 10   @ Michigan L 49-72 1%     0 - 5 -1.6 -10.8 +7.3
  Nov 29, 2024 267   Iona L 51-62 49%     0 - 6 -16.8 -15.5 -2.6
  Nov 30, 2024 176   Hofstra W 61-59 30%     1 - 6 +1.5 +1.6 +0.1
  Dec 01, 2024 175   Indiana St. L 71-87 30%     1 - 7 -16.5 -4.3 -12.3
  Dec 08, 2024 85   @ Central Florida L 51-66 8%     1 - 8 -5.4 -13.1 +6.7
  Dec 16, 2024 150   @ UTEP L 62-67 18%     1 - 9 -1.2 -1.8 +0.2
  Dec 18, 2024 102   @ Oklahoma St. L 61-66 11%     1 - 10 +2.2 -5.1 +7.1
  Dec 29, 2024 361   Florida A&M W 70-60 87%     2 - 10 -8.2 -9.8 +1.4
  Jan 04, 2025 194   Texas Arlington W 77-74 44%     3 - 10 1 - 0 -1.5 +1.1 -2.5
  Jan 09, 2025 229   @ Southern Utah W 74-66 31%     4 - 10 2 - 0 +7.3 +0.8 +6.5
  Jan 11, 2025 277   @ Utah Tech L 54-58 40%     4 - 11 2 - 1 -7.4 -14.3 +6.6
  Jan 16, 2025 171   California Baptist L 65-68 41%    
  Jan 18, 2025 94   @ Grand Canyon L 62-76 8%    
  Jan 23, 2025 220   @ Abilene Christian L 63-68 30%    
  Jan 30, 2025 277   Utah Tech W 68-65 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 229   Southern Utah W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 06, 2025 165   @ Seattle L 62-71 20%    
  Feb 08, 2025 140   @ Utah Valley L 60-70 17%    
  Feb 13, 2025 94   Grand Canyon L 65-73 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 165   Seattle L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 22, 2025 194   @ Texas Arlington L 68-75 24%    
  Feb 27, 2025 220   Abilene Christian W 66-65 51%    
  Mar 06, 2025 171   @ California Baptist L 62-71 22%    
  Mar 08, 2025 140   Utah Valley L 63-67 36%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 3.5 1.5 0.2 6.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 7.6 4.4 0.4 14.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 7.5 7.1 0.8 0.0 16.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 6.6 8.7 1.5 0.0 17.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 5.5 8.0 2.4 0.1 16.9 8th
9th 1.1 4.2 5.4 2.3 0.1 13.1 9th
Total 1.1 5.1 12.0 18.2 20.5 17.9 12.5 7.1 3.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 95.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-4 74.6% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
11-5 38.6% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 8.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.1% 17.5% 17.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.4% 9.1% 9.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-5 1.4% 17.2% 17.2% 15.6 0.1 0.1 1.1
10-6 3.7% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.3 3.4
9-7 7.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.3 6.8
8-8 12.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 12.3
7-9 17.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 17.8
6-10 20.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 20.4
5-11 18.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 18.2
4-12 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.0
3-13 5.1% 5.1
2-14 1.1% 1.1
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%