Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -3.8 229
Results Rating -3.4 226
Consistency 0.14 106
Pace 72.6 73
Improvement -5.0 345

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 293 D+ C D- B- D+
Defense C+ 148 D D A+ F+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 69 D+ 54% 273 +0.9 138
2 Pt. Jumpers 56% 31 C 39% 152 +3.1 46
Three Pointers 29% 359 D+ 32% 259 -6.9 349
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 273 D+ -2.1 255
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 270
Second Chance C 30.0% 194 C 1.02 194 C 0.31 186
Turnovers from Steals C- 9.8% 220
Other Turnovers F 9.7% 357
Turnovers D- 19.5% 327
Freethrows C+ 0.33 116 B 75% 78 B- 0.25 94
Total Offense D+ -4.6 293

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 36% 342 D+ 12.4% 274
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 122 C 5.5% 216
Three Pointers C+ 85% 162 B- 0.6% 104
Total F+ 45% 353 D 7.0% 321

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 261 D+ 62% 293 +0.1 185
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 282 D 42% 310 -0.6 142
Three Pointers 46% 37 D 37% 298 +4.7 344
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 215 D +3.9 320
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 319
Second Chance D 33.5% 304 D+ 1.08 262 D 0.36 303
Turnovers from Steals A 13.2% 9
Other Turnovers A 9.5% 8
Turnovers A+ 22.8% 5
Freethrows F+ 0.38 353 C- 73% 228 F+ 0.28 348
Total Defense C+ +0.9 148

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 230 C 11.2% 161
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 189 C- 4.0% 224
Three Pointers D+ 87% 286 D 0.2% 335
Total D+ 60% 285 C- 4.8% 236

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 189 16.0 15
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 55 0.17 183
Consistency 0.12 139 0.13 235
Improvement -6.9 364 +1.9 85

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 256 229 199
Results Rating Rank 265 223 188
Conference Record 5 - 13 6 - 12 7 - 11
Conference Finish 7 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 4% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.5 15.9
.500 or above 1% 5% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 59% 21% 64%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round2% 4% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Utah Valley (Away) - 11.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 33 - 53 - 13
Quad 49 - 412 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 31 @SMU L 76 - 96 4% -7  3% 0 - 1 C- -3 C+ +3 D C D D+ -5 D A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 5 53 @LSU L 60 - 96 6% -19  2% 0 - 2 F -22 F+ -10 F D+ B F -14 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 200 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85 - 77 56% +13  98% 1 - 2 C+ +3 A- +11 B+ A+ B- F+ -8 D D- C+
 Tue, Nov 11 163 Merrimack W 76 - 62 48% +5  81% 2 - 2 B +11 D+ -4 B+ D F A+ +14 A+ C- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 46 @Baylor L 81 - 94 5% -10  2% 2 - 3 C +1 B +7 A A+ F D+ -5 F+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 237 @Rice W 90 - 74 40% +3  49% 3 - 3 A- +15 B +7 A+ F+ D+ A- +7 D+ A+ C+
 Mon, Dec 1 42 @Cincinnati L 58 - 76 5% -8  8% 3 - 4 C- -3 D- -6 C+ B- F B +4 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 365 @Mississippi Valley W 88 - 64 93% +9  88% 4 - 4 C+ +4 C- -1 C+ F+ F B- +3 F F+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 327 Florida A&M W 78 - 54 83% +14  79% 5 - 4 B +10 F+ -9 D- A F A+ +17 A+ C A+
 Mon, Dec 29 181 @Texas Arlington W 69 - 63 30% +6  91% 6 - 4 1 - 0 B- +8 C+ +3 B- C+ A+ B+ +6 C C A+
 Thu, Jan 1 94 Utah Valley L 85 - 91 26% -2  26% 6 - 5 1 - 1 C- -3 B +6 D+ B- A+ F+ -8 F+ C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 139 California Baptist W 81 - 76 OT 42% +1  61% 7 - 5 2 - 1 C+ +3 C+ +3 B+ F+ F+ C+ +0 F D- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 242 Abilene Christian L 80 - 84 64% -7  0% 7 - 6 2 - 2 D- -12 C +1 F A+ A- F -13 F F A-
 Thu, Jan 15 277 @Southern Utah L 105 - 106 OT 49% -5  3% 7 - 7 2 - 3 C- -4 B- +4 C A F D- -8 F F C
 Sat, Jan 17 187 @Utah Tech L 71 - 75 31% -6  0% 7 - 8 2 - 4 C- -3 D -4 D- F+ A- C+ +2 F+ C A+
 Wed, Jan 21 181 @Texas Arlington L 64 - 71 30% -1  29% 7 - 9 2 - 5 D+ -5 D -4 C D- F C -1 D C- C
 Thu, Jan 29 94 Utah Valley L 55 - 83 26% -4  38% 7 - 10 2 - 6 F -25 F -19 F C F D -5 F+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 187 Utah Tech L 59 - 65 54% -1  46% 7 - 11 2 - 7 D -11 F -13 F A- F B- +2 F A+ A+
 Thu, Feb 5 139 @California Baptist L 55 - 56 22% +1  58% 7 - 12 2 - 8 C+ +3 F -12 C F F A+ +15 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Feb 7 277 @Southern Utah W 62 - 59 49% +1  53% 8 - 12 3 - 8 C -0 F -14 F+ D F A+ +14 A- C- A+
 Sat, Feb 14 242 @Abilene Christian L 59 - 73 41% +3  59% 8 - 13 3 - 9 F+ -16 F -14 D F F C- -2 F F A+
 Mon, Feb 16 242 Abilene Christian W 65 - 62 OT 64% -1  26% 9 - 13 4 - 9 C- -5 F -16 F F D A +11 B+ B+ A+
 Thu, Feb 19 277 Southern Utah W 78 - 74 71% +1  66% 10 - 13 5 - 9 D+ -5 C +1 B- D+ D+ D- -7 C- D B+
 Sat, Feb 21 187 Utah Tech L 72 - 80 54% +2  68% 10 - 14 5 - 10 D- -13 C- -1 F+ B- A F -13 B- F C+
 Thu, Feb 26 94 @Utah Valley L 67 - 80 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 139 @California Baptist L 65 - 73 22%
 Thu, Mar 5 181 Texas Arlington W 68 - 67 52%
Totals 11 - 16 6 - 12 -4 D+ -5 A D+ D+ C+ +1 D+ B B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ C D+ D+ 43% 56% 29% D+ D+ C C C D- C+ B B- C+ D+ D D D 36% 17% 46% C- D D D+ D A+ F+ C- F+
1.02 54% 39% 32% -2 -1 0.96 30% 1.0 .31 19% .33 75% .25 1.07 62% 42% 37% +4 0 1.11 34% 1.1 .36 23% .38 73% .24
Nov
3		 SMU C+ A+ F B+ C- 22% 43% 35% F D C C- C D A+ A+ A+ D+ F F F+ F+ 30% 33% 37% A- D A A A+ C+ F D F
1.04 80% 15% 38% -3 -4 0.87 30% 0.9 .27 21% .61 83% .50 1.32 79% 53% 41% +15 -2 1.28 29% 0.9 .25 15% .68 79% .53
Nov
5		 LSU F+ F F F+ F 43% 17% 40% B F C- D+ D+ B C B+ C+ F F F F F 54% 10% 37% F F F D+ F A+ F C+ F
0.88 43% 11% 29% -14 +1 0.75 27% 0.8 .23 13% .30 72% .22 1.41 95% 50% 47% +28 +3 1.63 44% 1.3 .56 22% .55 76% .41
Nov
8		 TX A&M Corpus Christi A- F A+ A+ A 37% 29% 34% F+ B+ B+ A+ A+ B- A+ A- A+ F+ B+ C F+ D+ 45% 17% 38% D+ D F C+ D- C+ F B F
1.23 40% 58% 50% +8 -1 1.15 35% 1.4 .50 19% .66 78% .52 1.11 48% 38% 39% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.9 .35 19% .52 62% .32
Nov
11		 Merrimack D+ C+ A+ F A- 45% 37% 18% F+ B+ C+ F+ D F A+ C A A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 42% 9% 49% D A+ F A+ C- A+ F C F
1.03 57% 58% 22% +4 -2 1.06 42% 0.8 .35 23% .44 72% .32 0.84 53% 25% 18% -15 +2 0.76 38% 0.7 .26 29% .46 79% .36
Nov
14		 Baylor B A+ A+ C A+ 10% 71% 18% F A A+ F A+ F C+ A+ B+ D+ D- F F+ F 15% 33% 52% A- F+ B- F F A+ C- F F+
1.11 100% 54% 33% +16 -9 1.16 60% 0.8 .47 29% .27 86% .23 1.29 71% 63% 40% +15 -3 1.25 36% 1.9 .68 21% .34 85% .29
Nov
20		 Rice B A+ B B- A+ 50% 34% 16% C+ A+ D+ F F+ D+ A C+ A A- F A D D+ 24% 27% 49% C D+ B+ A+ A+ C+ F A+ B
1.21 84% 41% 38% +15 -1 1.30 29% 0.8 .21 17% .41 76% .31 0.99 69% 27% 37% +2 -2 1.02 30% 0.5 .15 19% .40 46% .18
Dec
1		 Cincinnati D- F B A+ C+ 41% 20% 39% B C+ F+ A+ B- F C+ F D+ B B- A+ F F 17% 12% 71% C+ F F D+ F A+ D+ A+ C+
0.82 33% 44% 41% -5 0 0.93 17% 1.8 .31 27% .27 57% .15 1.07 57% 20% 47% +11 0 1.24 44% 1.1 .47 30% .30 60% .18
Dec
16		 Mississippi Valley C- C F A+ C 51% 14% 35% B+ C+ D+ F+ F+ F D+ A+ B+ B- F+ F C+ F 43% 27% 30% F F B- F F+ A+ B- B B-
1.17 62% 29% 44% +6 +2 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 21% .37 91% .34 0.85 63% 58% 31% +6 -1 1.14 21% 1.4 .29 35% .24 67% .16
Dec
19		 Florida A&M F+ F A A+ F 61% 20% 18% B D- B- A+ A F A- D+ B A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 13% 45% F A+ B+ F C A+ F B F
1.00 43% 50% 44% -4 +2 0.98 34% 1.3 .46 26% .40 74% .29 0.70 50% 17% 19% -16 +1 0.72 23% 1.0 .23 30% .44 63% .27
Dec
29		 Texas Arlington C+ B- C+ C+ B+ 35% 39% 26% F+ B- F+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F D- B+ B+ C+ C- C 39% 21% 39% B- C C+ D+ C A+ F C F
1.05 63% 39% 33% +2 -3 1.00 20% 1.7 .34 11% .48 46% .22 0.96 47% 38% 33% -5 0 0.92 33% 1.0 .33 27% .59 71% .42
Jan
1		 Utah Valley B F+ A+ D- D+ 47% 22% 31% C+ D+ D A+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ D- B- D F+ 59% 7% 35% F F+ C B- C+ B- F F+ F
1.12 46% 50% 29% -5 0 0.93 26% 1.3 .33 12% .48 88% .42 1.20 67% 33% 38% +7 +3 1.22 38% 1.0 .38 22% .61 75% .46
Jan
3		 California Baptist C+ A D- A+ A+ 33% 41% 26% F B+ D F F+ F+ A+ C+ A+ C+ F F D F 46% 13% 41% D F D D- D- A+ D C D+
1.09 67% 32% 50% +6 -3 1.09 21% 0.6 .12 19% .64 74% .48 1.02 67% 50% 37% +7 +2 1.20 41% 1.0 .41 28% .34 72% .24
Jan
8		 Abilene Christian C F F+ F F 67% 22% 11% B F A- A+ A+ A- B+ A+ A+ F C- F F F 43% 23% 34% D+ F F F F A- F D+ F
1.10 48% 30% 0% -14 +2 0.78 35% 1.7 .61 19% .50 93% .46 1.16 58% 60% 40% +8 0 1.18 40% 1.6 .64 25% .48 73% .35
Jan
15		 Southern Utah B- D- D- A+ C- 61% 18% 21% A- C D+ A+ A F A+ B+ A+ D- F+ C+ D- F 40% 11% 49% F+ F C- F F C F D+ F
1.16 50% 33% 57% +2 +2 1.09 28% 1.5 .44 18% .38 75% .28 1.17 67% 33% 38% +6 +1 1.17 30% 1.5 .45 20% .58 74% .43
Jan
17		 Utah Tech D D- A+ F F 57% 17% 26% B D- B+ F F+ A- A- F C C+ F A+ C- F+ 38% 11% 51% D F+ A- F C A+ F D+ F
1.02 55% 50% 13% -8 +2 0.90 39% 0.6 .22 11% .36 59% .21 1.08 88% 0% 35% +8 +1 1.20 23% 1.2 .27 23% .43 74% .32
Jan
21		 Texas Arlington D C+ D F C 52% 34% 14% C C B F D- F C+ A+ A+ C D+ F A+ D+ 49% 8% 44% F D B F C- C F B- F
0.95 61% 33% 17% -4 -1 0.93 34% 0.6 .22 27% .39 95% .36 1.05 58% 100% 24% -2 +2 1.03 31% 1.1 .35 21% .66 69% .45
Jan
29		 Utah Valley F F F B- F 37% 30% 33% D- F C+ D+ C F A+ D A+ D C- C- F F 51% 18% 31% B- F+ F+ F F A+ C- F F
0.76 25% 15% 36% -18 -1 0.63 32% 0.9 .29 26% .55 69% .38 1.15 61% 38% 50% +9 +1 1.22 43% 1.5 .65 28% .31 94% .29
Jan
31		 Utah Tech F F B- F F 46% 10% 44% B F A+ C A- F B+ A+ A B- F C F F 30% 17% 52% B- F A A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+
0.93 45% 40% 14% -19 +2 0.69 44% 1.0 .44 20% .34 82% .28 1.02 71% 38% 50% +16 0 1.35 21% 0.0 .00 22% .16 38% .06
Feb
5		 California Baptist F A+ C+ F C+ 45% 39% 16% F+ C F F+ F F F A+ F A+ A+ F A+ A+ 43% 27% 30% A- A+ F B+ C- A+ F F F
0.84 70% 40% 0% -2 -2 0.94 13% 0.8 .10 20% .11 83% .09 0.85 26% 50% 23% -15 -1 0.70 47% 0.8 .35 24% .40 80% .32
Feb
7		 Southern Utah F F A D+ F+ 50% 32% 18% D+ F+ D D D F D+ D D A+ A+ A- D- A- 33% 23% 44% B A- F A- C- A+ A F B
0.90 44% 50% 33% -3 -1 0.94 27% 0.9 .24 23% .23 67% .15 0.86 38% 27% 38% -7 -1 0.88 38% 0.8 .30 28% .16 88% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
14		 Abilene Christian F D A+ D+ D 48% 24% 29% D+ D D F F F D F F C- D B- D- F 33% 15% 53% D F F D+ F A+ F F F
0.84 55% 50% 33% +1 0 1.05 23% 0.7 .17 30% .41 55% .22 1.04 62% 33% 38% +4 0 1.10 45% 0.9 .42 31% .64 81% .52
Feb
16		 Abilene Christian F B- B F D- 35% 35% 30% F F F F F D A+ B- A+ A F B- A+ B 38% 32% 30% B+ B+ F+ A+ B+ A+ F A+ C-
0.86 64% 43% 25% 0 -2 0.98 10% 0.7 .07 25% .62 74% .46 0.82 67% 33% 14% -7 -1 0.85 39% 0.6 .22 26% .45 56% .25
Feb
19		 Southern Utah C A C F B- 62% 27% 11% B- B- B- F D+ D+ B D- C+ D- A+ A+ F C- 35% 21% 44% C+ C- F A- D B+ F F+ F
1.17 71% 40% 17% +5 +1 1.15 35% 0.8 .26 15% .30 65% .19 1.11 33% 22% 53% 0 0 1.02 42% 0.8 .33 22% .52 78% .40
Feb
21		 Utah Tech C- A- F C- D 26% 38% 36% F F+ D A+ B- A D+ A+ B- F C C- C+ C+ 21% 21% 57% A B- F F F C+ F F F
1.11 71% 20% 32% -5 -3 0.87 28% 1.3 .36 11% .26 87% .22 1.23 60% 40% 33% 0 -1 1.00 37% 1.8 .67 17% .37 85% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4.3 1.4 5.6 4th
5th 3.1 26.1 11.3 0.2 40.7 5th
6th 14.7 18.5 0.8 34.1 6th
7th 16.0 3.6 0.0 19.6 7th
Total 33.8 48.2 16.4 1.6 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 1.6% 8.6% 8.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 1.5
7-11 16.4% 3.9% 3.9% 15.8 0.2 0.5 15.8
6-12 48.2% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.1 0.8 47.3
5-13 33.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.4 33.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.8 97.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 14.9%