Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#155
Expected Predictive Rating-4.3#240
Pace58.9#352
Improvement+3.5#16

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#239
First Shot-2.2#241
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#175
Layup/Dunks-0.7#187
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#124
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#278
Freethrows+1.0#111
Improvement+1.0#82

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#89
First Shot+0.0#170
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#38
Layups/Dunks+2.0#108
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#19
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#299
Freethrows-2.1#298
Improvement+2.6#14
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 0.8% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.2 14.0
.500 or above 58.9% 60.2% 29.0%
.500 or above in Conference 84.8% 85.2% 76.3%
Conference Champion 13.2% 13.4% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Home) - 95.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 33 - 44 - 11
Quad 411 - 314 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 95   @ Stanford L 50-62 23%     0 - 1 -3.5 -10.6 +5.2
  Nov 12, 2021 9   @ Kansas L 62-88 5%     0 - 2 -6.0 +0.2 -7.7
  Nov 16, 2021 53   @ Wichita St. L 51-65 16%     0 - 3 -2.6 -9.8 +6.3
  Nov 22, 2021 182   @ North Dakota St. L 53-54 45%     0 - 4 +1.0 -7.1 +7.9
  Nov 24, 2021 15   @ Michigan L 54-65 6%     0 - 5 +7.0 -3.6 +9.5
  Nov 29, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 55-64 2%     0 - 6 +15.5 -4.4 +19.2
  Dec 05, 2021 349   Charleston Southern W 76-58 96%    
  Dec 14, 2021 157   @ South Alabama L 60-63 39%    
  Dec 17, 2021 157   South Alabama W 63-60 61%    
  Dec 21, 2021 256   Air Force W 61-52 81%    
  Dec 30, 2021 306   @ Dixie St. W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 01, 2022 152   @ Utah Valley L 60-63 39%    
  Jan 06, 2022 218   Sam Houston St. W 65-59 72%    
  Jan 08, 2022 158   Stephen F. Austin W 65-62 61%    
  Jan 13, 2022 102   @ New Mexico St. L 59-66 28%    
  Jan 15, 2022 110   @ Grand Canyon L 57-63 29%    
  Jan 20, 2022 217   California Baptist W 69-63 71%    
  Jan 22, 2022 173   Seattle W 66-62 64%    
  Jan 26, 2022 319   @ Lamar W 68-61 71%    
  Jan 29, 2022 286   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 69-65 66%    
  Feb 05, 2022 355   Chicago St. W 74-52 98%    
  Feb 12, 2022 143   Abilene Christian W 63-61 57%    
  Feb 17, 2022 152   Utah Valley W 63-60 59%    
  Feb 19, 2022 355   @ Chicago St. W 71-55 92%    
  Feb 24, 2022 286   UT Rio Grande Valley W 72-62 81%    
  Feb 26, 2022 319   Lamar W 71-58 85%    
  Mar 03, 2022 218   @ Sam Houston St. W 62-61 50%    
  Mar 05, 2022 143   @ Abilene Christian L 60-64 37%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 3.6 4.4 2.9 1.1 0.3 13.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 5.2 4.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 5.5 5.0 1.5 0.1 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.9 5.7 1.6 0.1 12.9 4th
5th 0.6 3.3 6.1 1.6 0.2 11.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 5.3 2.1 0.1 9.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.2 2.4 0.3 8.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.9 2.1 0.4 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 2.0 1.9 0.6 5.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.2 3.2 10th
11th 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.8 4.2 6.6 9.4 12.1 14.8 14.5 13.0 10.1 6.2 3.4 1.1 0.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 98.2% 1.1    1.0 0.1
16-2 86.1% 2.9    2.3 0.6
15-3 70.5% 4.4    2.7 1.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 35.7% 3.6    1.2 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 7.3% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.2% 13.2 7.6 3.9 1.2 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 0.3
17-1 1.1% 1.1
16-2 3.4% 3.4
15-3 6.2% 6.2
14-4 10.1% 1.5% 1.5% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.9
13-5 13.0% 1.7% 1.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.7
12-6 14.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.3
11-7 14.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.7
10-8 12.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 12.0
9-9 9.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.4
8-10 6.6% 6.6
7-11 4.2% 4.2
6-12 2.8% 2.8
5-13 1.1% 1.1
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1%