Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#110
Expected Predictive Rating+7.5#82
Pace62.7#325
Improvement-1.6#290

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#118
First Shot+0.6#162
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#100
Layup/Dunks+0.4#153
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#199
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#130
Freethrows-0.4#214
Improvement-1.0#286

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#108
First Shot-0.5#188
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#53
Layups/Dunks+0.1#195
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#109
Freethrows+0.0#188
Improvement-0.5#235
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.6% 24.1% 18.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 14.0
.500 or above 98.1% 98.6% 93.7%
.500 or above in Conference 94.7% 95.1% 91.4%
Conference Champion 29.8% 30.5% 22.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round23.4% 24.0% 18.5%
Second Round4.2% 4.3% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.1% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Home) - 90.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 36 - 48 - 7
Quad 414 - 222 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 324   Grambling St. W 74-53 92%     1 - 0 +8.7 +0.0 +9.4
  Nov 12, 2021 288   North Florida W 65-51 89%     2 - 0 +4.2 -5.6 +11.6
  Nov 17, 2021 242   Prairie View W 91-64 85%     3 - 0 +19.8 +16.7 +3.9
  Nov 22, 2021 84   Wyoming L 61-68 50%     3 - 1 -3.4 -3.7 -0.6
  Nov 27, 2021 235   @ Pepperdine W 59-56 67%     4 - 1 +2.3 -11.1 +13.5
  Nov 29, 2021 130   @ Loyola Marymount W 78-72 44%     5 - 1 +11.3 +9.5 +2.2
  Dec 02, 2021 300   Texas San Antonio W 77-63 91%    
  Dec 04, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 86-55 99.8%   
  Dec 09, 2021 96   @ Arizona St. L 67-72 33%    
  Dec 18, 2021 49   San Francisco L 63-69 30%    
  Dec 21, 2021 92   @ Nevada L 68-73 33%    
  Dec 30, 2021 355   Chicago St. W 80-55 99%    
  Jan 06, 2022 286   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-68 75%    
  Jan 08, 2022 319   @ Lamar W 74-64 80%    
  Jan 13, 2022 143   Abilene Christian W 69-64 68%    
  Jan 15, 2022 155   Tarleton St. W 63-57 71%    
  Jan 20, 2022 158   @ Stephen F. Austin W 68-67 50%    
  Jan 22, 2022 218   @ Sam Houston St. W 67-64 62%    
  Jan 29, 2022 102   @ New Mexico St. L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 03, 2022 173   Seattle W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 05, 2022 217   California Baptist W 75-66 80%    
  Feb 10, 2022 152   @ Utah Valley L 65-66 50%    
  Feb 12, 2022 306   @ Dixie St. W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 16, 2022 217   @ California Baptist W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 19, 2022 102   New Mexico St. W 68-66 59%    
  Feb 23, 2022 355   @ Chicago St. W 77-58 95%    
  Feb 26, 2022 218   Sam Houston St. W 70-61 79%    
  Mar 03, 2022 152   Utah Valley W 69-63 69%    
  Mar 05, 2022 306   Dixie St. W 80-65 91%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.6 6.4 8.8 7.9 4.1 0.9 29.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 6.6 6.8 3.4 0.5 0.0 19.5 2nd
3rd 1.0 5.1 6.2 1.7 0.2 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.1 1.6 0.1 10.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 4.3 1.7 0.1 8.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.1 1.6 0.1 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.9 0.3 4.9 7th
8th 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.1 3.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.0 4.8 8.2 10.9 13.9 16.0 15.0 12.5 8.4 4.1 0.9 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 4.1    4.1 0.1
16-2 93.7% 7.9    6.5 1.4 0.0
15-3 70.6% 8.8    5.2 3.1 0.5
14-4 42.9% 6.4    2.2 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.7% 1.6    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.8% 29.8 19.1 8.0 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 73.5% 64.3% 9.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 25.8%
17-1 4.1% 55.2% 50.5% 4.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 1.9 9.4%
16-2 8.4% 43.9% 43.4% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 4.7 0.9%
15-3 12.5% 37.9% 37.9% 13.1 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.1 1.3 0.2 7.7
14-4 15.0% 32.0% 32.0% 13.4 0.0 0.8 1.6 1.9 0.5 0.0 10.2
13-5 16.0% 20.0% 20.0% 13.9 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.1 12.8
12-6 13.9% 16.0% 16.0% 14.3 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.1 11.7
11-7 10.9% 10.1% 10.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 9.8
10-8 8.2% 7.1% 7.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 7.6
9-9 4.8% 5.3% 5.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.5
8-10 3.0% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.1 2.9
7-11 1.5% 1.5
6-12 0.6% 0.6
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.6% 23.3% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 4.4 7.3 6.7 3.2 0.7 76.4 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.4 4.3 47.8 47.8