Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#116
Expected Predictive Rating+3.0#126
Pace62.6#320
Improvement-1.1#302

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#90
First Shot+1.2#133
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#58
Layup/Dunks-0.9#219
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#198
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#96
Freethrows+0.5#133
Improvement+1.4#19

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#181
First Shot-0.9#207
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#112
Layups/Dunks-1.6#251
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#98
Freethrows-0.1#199
Improvement-2.5#363
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.9% 11.8% 9.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.7
.500 or above 97.8% 99.3% 94.8%
.500 or above in Conference 91.3% 96.1% 82.2%
Conference Champion 2.8% 4.1% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round10.8% 11.8% 9.0%
Second Round1.4% 1.7% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Home) - 65.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 21 - 32 - 4
Quad 37 - 79 - 11
Quad 49 - 118 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 120   Montana St. W 60-54 61%     1 - 0 +6.0 -2.8 +9.6
  Nov 12, 2022 59   @ Nevada L 46-59 20%     1 - 1 -1.3 -13.7 +10.2
  Nov 18, 2022 240   Grambling St. W 81-48 82%     2 - 1 +26.2 +4.6 +20.6
  Nov 21, 2022 109   Wichita St. L 43-55 47%     2 - 2 -8.3 -17.2 +6.5
  Nov 22, 2022 160   Northern Iowa W 69-67 60%     3 - 2 +2.3 +5.4 -2.8
  Nov 29, 2022 289   Alcorn St. W 80-72 87%     4 - 2 -1.5 +12.7 -13.2
  Dec 03, 2022 139   @ Wyoming W 66-58 44%     5 - 2 +12.4 -1.0 +14.1
  Dec 07, 2022 91   Loyola Marymount L 65-69 51%     5 - 3 -1.3 -3.6 +2.2
  Dec 10, 2022 80   North Texas L 58-60 36%     5 - 4 +4.6 +0.8 +3.4
  Dec 17, 2022 190   Pepperdine W 83-73 OT 74%     6 - 4 +6.1 -2.4 +7.2
  Dec 20, 2022 283   Idaho St. W 68-66 87%     7 - 4 -7.3 -3.0 -4.1
  Dec 29, 2022 156   California Baptist W 73-59 69%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +11.8 +2.3 +9.9
  Jan 05, 2023 82   @ Sam Houston St. W 72-68 OT 27%     9 - 4 2 - 0 +13.3 -1.2 +14.1
  Jan 07, 2023 135   @ Stephen F. Austin L 68-73 43%     9 - 5 2 - 1 -0.4 +3.2 -4.1
  Jan 12, 2023 274   Texas Arlington W 80-48 85%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +23.5 +9.7 +16.1
  Jan 14, 2023 156   @ California Baptist L 74-79 48%     10 - 6 3 - 2 -1.7 +10.4 -12.5
  Jan 18, 2023 211   Utah Tech W 89-85 77%     11 - 6 4 - 2 -0.8 +19.5 -20.1
  Jan 21, 2023 99   Utah Valley L 74-76 53%     11 - 7 4 - 3 +0.0 +8.1 -8.3
  Jan 26, 2023 218   @ Abilene Christian W 75-73 59%     12 - 7 5 - 3 +2.4 +6.0 -3.4
  Jan 28, 2023 187   @ Tarleton St. L 62-81 54%     12 - 8 5 - 4 -17.2 +3.1 -24.1
  Feb 04, 2023 135   Stephen F. Austin W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 08, 2023 184   New Mexico St. W 73-67 73%    
  Feb 11, 2023 142   @ Seattle L 68-69 44%    
  Feb 15, 2023 279   UT Rio Grande Valley W 81-69 87%    
  Feb 17, 2023 218   Abilene Christian W 75-67 78%    
  Feb 22, 2023 184   @ New Mexico St. W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 24, 2023 142   Seattle W 70-66 65%    
  Mar 01, 2023 114   @ Southern Utah L 72-75 38%    
  Mar 03, 2023 211   @ Utah Tech W 72-70 57%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.6 1.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 4.1 0.6 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.9 7.9 2.6 0.1 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 8.5 6.4 0.3 16.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 6.5 10.4 1.4 18.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 5.8 12.2 3.6 0.0 22.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.5 6.3 3.1 0.2 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 2.8 1.9 0.2 5.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.9 6.5 14.5 23.1 24.7 18.7 8.5 1.7 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 61.9% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 18.1% 1.6    0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1
12-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.7% 20.9% 20.2% 0.7% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.3 0.9%
13-5 8.5% 17.1% 17.1% 12.5 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.1
12-6 18.7% 13.4% 13.4% 12.9 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 16.2
11-7 24.7% 11.7% 11.7% 13.3 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.0 0.0 21.8
10-8 23.1% 9.3% 9.3% 13.7 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.2 21.0
9-9 14.5% 7.0% 7.0% 14.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 13.5
8-10 6.5% 6.1% 6.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 6.1
7-11 1.9% 4.6% 4.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.8
6-12 0.4% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.9% 10.8% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.5 3.2 1.0 0.1 89.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 20.9% 11.8 0.1 6.4 12.3 2.1