Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#274
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#280
Pace64.5#282
Improvement+0.0#188

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#298
First Shot-7.1#348
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#13
Layup/Dunks-0.2#179
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#231
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#340
Freethrows-0.6#225
Improvement+0.6#83

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#237
First Shot-2.3#250
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#140
Layups/Dunks+1.1#132
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#233
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#273
Freethrows-1.0#262
Improvement-0.6#275
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 48.7% 27.0% 53.7%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Home) - 18.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 62 - 8
Quad 32 - 93 - 17
Quad 43 - 56 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 35   @ Oklahoma St. L 66-77 4%     0 - 1 +3.7 -0.9 +5.5
  Nov 18, 2022 59   Nevada L 43-62 13%     0 - 2 -12.8 -27.2 +14.5
  Nov 21, 2022 202   Drexel L 38-59 34%     0 - 3 -22.6 -28.3 +2.4
  Nov 22, 2022 210   Northern Kentucky W 60-56 36%     1 - 3 +2.0 -3.7 +6.2
  Nov 23, 2022 205   East Carolina L 65-79 35%     1 - 4 -15.7 -2.8 -14.2
  Dec 02, 2022 106   @ LSU L 59-63 13%     1 - 5 +2.6 -3.9 +6.1
  Dec 06, 2022 80   North Texas L 57-60 18%     1 - 6 +0.9 +3.3 -3.3
  Dec 10, 2022 209   Texas St. L 65-71 36%     1 - 7 -8.0 -0.2 -8.3
  Dec 19, 2022 88   @ San Francisco W 68-63 10%     2 - 7 +13.4 -1.3 +14.7
  Dec 21, 2022 224   @ California L 51-73 30%     2 - 8 -22.2 -13.7 -11.7
  Dec 29, 2022 187   @ Tarleton St. L 63-70 24%     2 - 9 0 - 1 -5.2 -5.1 -0.5
  Dec 31, 2022 135   Stephen F. Austin L 62-66 32%     2 - 10 0 - 2 -4.9 -2.5 -2.9
  Jan 05, 2023 99   Utah Valley L 64-72 23%     2 - 11 0 - 3 -6.0 -6.4 +0.3
  Jan 07, 2023 142   Seattle L 61-76 33%     2 - 12 0 - 4 -16.1 -0.4 -18.1
  Jan 12, 2023 116   @ Grand Canyon L 48-80 15%     2 - 13 0 - 5 -26.4 -20.2 -8.5
  Jan 14, 2023 184   @ New Mexico St. W 66-55 23%     3 - 13 1 - 5 +13.1 -7.5 +20.4
  Jan 19, 2023 279   UT Rio Grande Valley W 85-73 62%     4 - 13 2 - 5 +3.0 +5.1 -2.3
  Jan 21, 2023 218   @ Abilene Christian L 68-84 28%     4 - 14 2 - 6 -15.6 +0.1 -17.0
  Jan 25, 2023 156   California Baptist L 66-74 36%     4 - 15 2 - 7 -10.2 -1.9 -8.8
  Feb 04, 2023 82   Sam Houston St. L 58-68 19%    
  Feb 06, 2023 187   Tarleton St. L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 09, 2023 279   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 72-74 41%    
  Feb 15, 2023 82   @ Sam Houston St. L 56-71 7%    
  Feb 18, 2023 135   @ Stephen F. Austin L 63-73 16%    
  Feb 23, 2023 114   Southern Utah L 69-75 29%    
  Feb 25, 2023 211   Utah Tech L 69-70 48%    
  Mar 01, 2023 99   @ Utah Valley L 61-74 10%    
  Mar 03, 2023 142   @ Seattle L 62-72 17%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 4 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.5 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 6.9 6.0 1.1 0.1 15.2 10th
11th 0.7 8.2 10.6 2.3 0.1 21.9 11th
12th 0.3 7.2 14.2 4.4 0.2 26.3 12th
13th 7.1 14.0 5.8 0.4 27.3 13th
Total 7.4 21.9 29.3 23.2 12.3 4.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.2% 0.2
8-10 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
7-11 4.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.5
6-12 12.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.2
5-13 23.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 23.1
4-14 29.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 29.2
3-15 21.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 21.9
2-16 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 7.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0