Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#161
Expected Predictive Rating-4.3#234
Pace75.2#42
Improvement+2.0#59

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#128
First Shot+2.3#110
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#211
Layup/Dunks-5.2#331
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#301
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.9#9
Freethrows+0.8#135
Improvement-1.4#286

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#245
First Shot+0.5#155
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#334
Layups/Dunks-2.7#273
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#40
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#151
Freethrows+0.2#175
Improvement+3.5#10
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.8% 12.9% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 42.6% 59.7% 34.6%
.500 or above in Conference 68.4% 75.7% 64.9%
Conference Champion 11.5% 14.9% 9.9%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 2.6% 4.9%
First Four0.6% 0.2% 0.7%
First Round9.6% 12.9% 8.1%
Second Round0.8% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Away) - 32.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 34 - 85 - 13
Quad 49 - 314 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 103   Louisiana Tech L 77-92 43%     0 - 1 -13.5 +8.3 -22.6
  Nov 13, 2024 106   @ USC L 95-98 24%     0 - 2 +4.1 +13.8 -9.4
  Nov 19, 2024 165   @ Missouri St. L 68-78 39%     0 - 3 -7.6 -2.1 -5.4
  Nov 26, 2024 117   Murray St. L 66-79 38%     0 - 4 -10.2 -7.4 -2.5
  Nov 27, 2024 238   Austin Peay W 68-58 65%     1 - 4 +5.8 +2.6 +4.3
  Nov 28, 2024 91   Rhode Island L 78-83 28%     1 - 5 +0.9 +3.6 -2.5
  Dec 02, 2024 332   @ Louisiana Monroe W 84-70 73%     2 - 5 +7.2 +5.7 +1.0
  Dec 12, 2024 130   @ Arkansas St. L 75-80 32%    
  Dec 14, 2024 332   Louisiana Monroe W 81-69 88%    
  Dec 18, 2024 243   Evansville W 81-74 74%    
  Dec 21, 2024 70   @ Liberty L 66-77 15%    
  Dec 29, 2024 138   @ Texas St. L 72-77 33%    
  Jan 04, 2025 323   @ Tarleton St. W 77-71 71%    
  Jan 09, 2025 291   @ Utah Tech W 78-75 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 199   @ Southern Utah L 79-81 44%    
  Jan 16, 2025 184   Utah Valley W 80-76 64%    
  Jan 23, 2025 123   Seattle W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 178   @ Abilene Christian L 76-78 42%    
  Jan 30, 2025 199   Southern Utah W 82-78 66%    
  Feb 01, 2025 291   Utah Tech W 81-72 80%    
  Feb 06, 2025 184   @ Utah Valley L 77-79 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 123   @ Seattle L 73-79 31%    
  Feb 13, 2025 185   California Baptist W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 100   Grand Canyon L 80-83 41%    
  Feb 22, 2025 323   Tarleton St. W 80-68 85%    
  Feb 27, 2025 100   @ Grand Canyon L 77-86 22%    
  Mar 01, 2025 178   Abilene Christian W 79-75 63%    
  Mar 08, 2025 185   @ California Baptist L 74-76 43%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.3 3.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 11.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.0 6.2 3.5 0.9 0.1 15.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.3 7.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 16.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 5.3 7.1 2.1 0.1 15.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.6 6.4 2.0 0.1 13.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.5 5.4 1.9 0.1 11.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.8 3.8 1.3 0.1 8.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.0 0.7 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.1 5.7 8.6 12.1 14.6 15.1 13.8 10.8 7.1 4.4 2.0 0.6 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
14-2 97.1% 1.9    1.7 0.2
13-3 80.2% 3.5    2.4 1.0 0.1
12-4 46.1% 3.3    1.5 1.4 0.4 0.0
11-5 16.7% 1.8    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 11.5% 11.5 6.6 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 53.3% 53.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.6% 45.8% 45.8% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-2 2.0% 36.2% 36.2% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3
13-3 4.4% 30.4% 30.4% 13.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 3.0
12-4 7.1% 25.9% 25.9% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 5.3
11-5 10.8% 18.6% 18.6% 14.1 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.1 8.8
10-6 13.8% 11.0% 11.0% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.1 12.2
9-7 15.1% 6.8% 6.8% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 14.1
8-8 14.6% 3.6% 3.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 14.1
7-9 12.1% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 11.8
6-10 8.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.5
5-11 5.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.7
4-12 3.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-13 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
2-14 0.5% 0.5
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.3 2.9 2.7 1.0 90.2 0.0%