Texas Arlington
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#234
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#207
Pace71.5#117
Improvement+4.0#10

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#282
First Shot-3.4#278
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#216
Layup/Dunks-1.9#238
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#333
Freethrows+0.5#148
Improvement+1.8#34

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#155
First Shot+1.8#115
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#273
Layups/Dunks+4.2#41
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#82
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#214
Freethrows-3.3#328
Improvement+2.2#27
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 5.8% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 16.1% 28.6% 11.3%
.500 or above in Conference 44.4% 53.8% 40.7%
Conference Champion 3.7% 5.2% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 12.2% 7.5% 14.1%
First Four0.8% 0.5% 0.9%
First Round3.5% 5.6% 2.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Home) - 27.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 33 - 74 - 14
Quad 47 - 511 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 32   @ Oklahoma St. L 45-88 5%     0 - 1 -28.0 -18.7 -8.2
  Nov 16, 2021 143   Abilene Christian L 71-80 OT 41%     0 - 2 -10.3 -10.4 +1.3
  Nov 18, 2021 108   @ North Texas L 36-64 16%     0 - 3 -20.8 -26.9 +2.7
  Nov 20, 2021 48   @ San Diego St. L 62-68 7%     0 - 4 +6.6 +1.3 +5.1
  Nov 27, 2021 46   @ Utah St. L 61-80 7%     0 - 5 -6.3 -5.6 -0.8
  Nov 29, 2021 118   @ UC Santa Barbara W 70-62 18%     1 - 5 +14.1 -1.1 +15.1
  Dec 07, 2021 92   Nevada L 70-77 28%    
  Dec 11, 2021 319   Lamar W 75-67 78%    
  Dec 16, 2021 170   @ Oral Roberts L 74-80 27%    
  Dec 19, 2021 35   @ Oklahoma L 59-77 5%    
  Dec 30, 2021 157   South Alabama L 68-69 45%    
  Jan 01, 2022 240   Troy W 69-66 62%    
  Jan 06, 2022 141   @ Georgia St. L 69-78 22%    
  Jan 08, 2022 176   @ Georgia Southern L 63-69 31%    
  Jan 13, 2022 186   Louisiana W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 15, 2022 263   Louisiana Monroe W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 20, 2022 229   @ Arkansas St. L 67-70 38%    
  Jan 22, 2022 289   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 27, 2022 138   Texas St. L 64-67 40%    
  Jan 29, 2022 138   @ Texas St. L 61-70 22%    
  Feb 03, 2022 227   Coastal Carolina W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 05, 2022 172   Appalachian St. L 64-65 49%    
  Feb 10, 2022 263   @ Louisiana Monroe L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 12, 2022 186   @ Louisiana L 70-75 31%    
  Feb 17, 2022 289   Arkansas Little Rock W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 19, 2022 229   Arkansas St. W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 24, 2022 240   @ Troy L 66-69 41%    
  Feb 26, 2022 157   @ South Alabama L 65-72 26%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 3.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.4 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.2 2.3 0.5 0.1 7.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.3 2.9 0.9 0.1 7.7 4th
5th 0.3 3.3 4.6 1.2 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 5.5 1.5 0.1 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 5.1 2.9 0.2 9.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 5.4 3.5 0.5 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.1 4.8 1.0 0.0 10.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 3.2 4.4 1.4 0.1 9.9 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 2.7 3.3 1.3 0.0 8.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.1 7.1 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.2 5.5 8.3 11.0 13.2 12.5 12.9 10.5 8.2 6.0 3.7 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 86.5% 0.3    0.2 0.0
15-3 85.1% 0.7    0.5 0.2
14-4 58.0% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.0
13-5 30.0% 1.1    0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1
12-6 6.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 63.1% 63.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 28.8% 28.8% 13.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.8% 12.8% 12.8% 13.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
14-4 1.9% 23.5% 23.5% 14.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.5
13-5 3.7% 16.0% 16.0% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.1
12-6 6.0% 13.0% 13.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 5.2
11-7 8.2% 6.3% 6.3% 15.4 0.3 0.2 7.7
10-8 10.5% 5.0% 5.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 10.0
9-9 12.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 12.6
8-10 12.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 12.3
7-11 13.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 13.0
6-12 11.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.0
5-13 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.3
4-14 5.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.4
3-15 3.2% 3.2
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.5 1.4 96.2 0.0%