Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#153
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#123
Pace71.0#143
Improvement+0.2#160

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#162
First Shot-2.1#235
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#45
Layup/Dunks-1.5#228
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#182
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#238
Freethrows+1.0#112
Improvement+0.9#86

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#163
First Shot+2.5#99
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#323
Layups/Dunks-4.9#323
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#117
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.2#7
Freethrows-1.8#282
Improvement-0.7#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 9.2% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.3 13.8
.500 or above 61.8% 75.1% 50.7%
.500 or above in Conference 64.7% 78.2% 53.4%
Conference Champion 7.6% 12.5% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 0.6% 3.8%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 0.9%
First Round7.0% 8.9% 5.3%
Second Round0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Away) - 45.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 68 - 11
Quad 48 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 74   @ Oklahoma St. W 64-59 19%     1 - 0 +14.9 -1.3 +16.2
  Nov 10, 2023 71   @ North Carolina St. L 64-84 18%     1 - 1 -9.7 -1.1 -9.7
  Nov 14, 2023 233   Prairie View L 74-79 76%     1 - 2 -11.6 -1.9 -9.5
  Nov 17, 2023 112   San Jose St. W 77-71 38%     2 - 2 +9.7 +14.6 -4.4
  Nov 19, 2023 171   Fordham W 59-45 54%     3 - 2 +13.8 -6.8 +21.3
  Nov 20, 2023 100   Missouri St. L 69-87 35%     3 - 3 -13.5 -1.4 -11.4
  Nov 29, 2023 190   @ Texas Arlington L 72-73 46%    
  Dec 02, 2023 97   Stephen F. Austin L 74-75 45%    
  Dec 06, 2023 247   Northern Arizona W 77-69 76%    
  Dec 17, 2023 151   UTEP W 72-69 60%    
  Dec 21, 2023 52   @ Arkansas L 70-82 13%    
  Dec 30, 2023 187   @ Western Kentucky L 75-76 45%    
  Jan 06, 2024 329   UT Rio Grande Valley W 85-71 89%    
  Jan 11, 2024 77   @ Grand Canyon L 70-79 20%    
  Jan 13, 2024 195   @ California Baptist L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 18, 2024 174   @ Tarleton St. L 69-71 42%    
  Jan 20, 2024 190   Texas Arlington W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 25, 2024 234   Utah Tech W 65-58 75%    
  Jan 27, 2024 210   Southern Utah W 81-75 71%    
  Feb 01, 2024 174   Tarleton St. W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 08, 2024 131   @ Seattle L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 10, 2024 173   @ Utah Valley L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 15, 2024 329   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-74 75%    
  Feb 17, 2024 97   @ Stephen F. Austin L 71-78 26%    
  Feb 22, 2024 195   California Baptist W 71-66 68%    
  Feb 24, 2024 77   Grand Canyon L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 29, 2024 210   @ Southern Utah L 78-79 49%    
  Mar 02, 2024 234   @ Utah Tech W 62-61 54%    
  Mar 07, 2024 131   Seattle W 72-71 54%    
  Mar 09, 2024 173   Utah Valley W 74-70 64%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 7.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 11.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.9 4.9 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.3 4.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.7 5.0 2.1 0.2 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.2 5.1 1.5 0.2 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.2 4.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.0 3.8 1.2 0.1 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.5 4.7 6.9 8.8 10.7 12.7 11.9 11.3 10.0 7.7 4.7 3.7 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 99.7% 0.7    0.6 0.1
17-3 80.6% 1.4    1.2 0.2 0.0
16-4 67.4% 2.5    1.8 0.7 0.0
15-5 38.9% 1.8    0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 10.4% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.6% 7.6 4.9 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 67.8% 31.3% 36.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 53.2%
18-2 0.7% 26.3% 25.1% 1.2% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6%
17-3 1.7% 25.4% 25.1% 0.2% 12.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.3%
16-4 3.7% 22.7% 22.7% 12.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 2.9
15-5 4.7% 16.8% 16.8% 12.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.9
14-6 7.7% 14.7% 14.7% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 6.6
13-7 10.0% 10.5% 10.5% 13.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 8.9
12-8 11.3% 5.8% 5.8% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.6
11-9 11.9% 6.0% 6.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 11.2
10-10 12.7% 3.5% 3.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 12.2
9-11 10.7% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 10.3
8-12 8.8% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.3 8.5
7-13 6.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.9
6-14 4.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 4.6
5-15 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-16 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.2% 7.1% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.0 1.4 1.1 0.8 92.8 0.1%