Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.7 262
Expected Predictive Rating -5.1 245
Pace 67.0 234
Improvement +0.1 184

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #309 D+ C- F+ C D+
Defense C #182 D- C A F D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 125 52% 313 -1.2 224
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 73 36% 239 +1.6 93
Three Pointers 33% 329 34% 172 -3.8 309
1st FG Attempt 0.95 282 -3.4 282
Second Chance 32.3% 131 0.89 332 0.29 231
Turnovers 20.6% 345
Freethrows 0.32 136 70% 261 0.22 168
Total Offense -5.2 309

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 13 61% 271 -6.3 354
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 279 36% 106 +1.6 70
Three Pointers 36% 316 40% 359 -0.8 217
1st FG Attempt 1.13 338 -5.4 338
Second Chance 29.3% 125 1.08 269 0.32 198
Turnovers 21.9% 10
Freethrows 0.45 364 73% 239 0.33 365
Total Defense -0.4 182

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.5 264 +1.0 342
Shot Type Accuracy -2.8 279 +4.3 328
Possession Length 18.2 275 16.6 68
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 141 0.23 339
Improvement -0.2 #190 +0.3 #163

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 1.9% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.5% 1.0% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 0.5% 1.2% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 70.4% 56.5% 80.5%
First Four0.9% 1.3% 0.7%
First Round0.9% 1.4% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 42.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 33 - 74 - 13
Quad 47 - 611 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 248 Nebraska Omaha W 73 - 71 59% +4  76% 1 - 0 D+ -6 D- -6 C C+ F C +0 D- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 104 @Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 76 12% -1  31% 1 - 1 C- -3 C- -2 D D C C -1 D- B+ D+
 Tue, Nov 18 247 @Texas St. L 49 - 63 35% -11  1% 1 - 2 F+ -16 F -20 F B F B- +3 D- B+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 348 Texas San Antonio W 61 - 50 74% +7  94% 2 - 2 C -1 F -12 F B- F A +12 A- C A
 Tue, Nov 25 145 William & Mary L 58 - 92 26% -12  1% 2 - 3 F -33 F -21 F D- F F+ -9 F C- C+
 Tue, Dec 2 291 @Pepperdine W 71 - 63 46% +8  88% 3 - 3 C+ +3 B- +4 C+ C- A- C +0 D+ A- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 165 New Mexico St. W 77 - 69 42% +5  82% 4 - 3 C+ +4 B +7 A B F C -1 C- B- A-
 Tue, Dec 16 2 @Arizona L 62 - 96 1% -21  0% 4 - 4 D+ -6 D+ -2 C C+ D C- -2 F D- A+
 Fri, Dec 19 20 @BYU L 67 - 85 2% -5  28% 4 - 5 C+ +3 D+ -3 D A- F B+ +6 D F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 311 @Texas Southern W 75 - 68 51% -2  30% 5 - 5 C +1 D+ -2 D+ C- F B- +4 D- C+ B
 Thu, Jan 1 204 Utah Tech L 64 - 79 50% -14  12% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F -21 F -11 C+ F+ F F+ -11 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 94 Utah Valley W 85 - 68 22% +5  74% 6 - 6 1 - 1 A +19 A +12 A D+ A+ B+ +7 D+ B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 218 @Tarleton St. W 84 - 80 29% +7  98% 7 - 6 2 - 1 C+ +4 B+ +8 B- A+ D+ D+ -4 A F C
 Sat, Jan 10 169 @Texas Arlington L 72 - 82 22% -6  2% 7 - 7 2 - 2 D+ -8 B- +5 A- B- D+ F -13 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 15 138 California Baptist L 58 - 74 35% -13  12% 7 - 8 2 - 3 F -18 F -10 D+ F B+ D- -9 D- B- D+
 Sat, Jan 17 284 @Southern Utah L 52 - 74 44% -11  0% 7 - 9 2 - 4 F -26 F -25 F F F C -1 F+ D+ A-
 Thu, Jan 29 204 Utah Tech L 70 - 76 50% -7  0% 7 - 10 2 - 5 D- -12 F -12 D- A- F C+ +1 D+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 284 Southern Utah L 76 - 79 66% +4  84% 7 - 11 2 - 6 D- -13 C- -1 B D C+ F -12 F F+ A+
 Thu, Feb 5 94 @Utah Valley L 55 - 68 10% -7  23% 7 - 12 2 - 7 C- -5 F -14 C+ F F A- +9 B D A+
 Sat, Feb 7 138 @California Baptist L 63 - 65 18% -4  5% 7 - 13 2 - 8 C+ +2 D -6 F+ D- D A- +8 C A+ C
 Thu, Feb 12 169 Texas Arlington L 65 - 67 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 218 Tarleton St. W 71 - 70 52%
 Mon, Feb 16 218 @Tarleton St. L 68 - 74 29%
 Sat, Feb 21 284 Southern Utah W 74 - 70 65%
 Thu, Feb 26 204 @Utah Tech L 68 - 74 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 94 @Utah Valley L 64 - 78 9%
 Thu, Mar 5 138 @California Baptist L 62 - 72 18%
 Sat, Mar 7 169 Texas Arlington L 65 - 67 43%
Totals 10 - 18 5 - 13 -6 D -5 D+ C- F+ C +0 D- C A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D C- C D+ 40% 26% 33% D+ D+ C+ D- C- F+ C+ D+ C C D+ B- F D- 47% 17% 36% D- D- C+ D+ C A F C- F
1.01 52% 36% 34% -3 -1 0.95 32% 0.9 .29 21% .32 70% .22 1.09 61% 36% 40% +4 +1 1.13 29% 1.1 .32 22% .45 73% .23
Nov
6		 Nebraska Omaha D- C C- C+ C 39% 17% 43% C C A- F+ C+ F A- C+ A- C C- F D+ F+ 37% 22% 41% C D- A- A+ A+ A+ F D+ F
1.06 61% 38% 35% +2 0 1.07 38% 0.8 .31 20% .38 76% .29 1.03 60% 56% 35% +5 0 1.12 20% 0.4 .08 23% .59 74% .44
Nov
14		 Stephen F. Austin C- C- D- F D 47% 35% 18% D- D C+ F D C B A+ A C A+ F F D+ 43% 17% 40% F D- A+ F B+ D+ F A F
0.98 54% 33% 22% -7 -1 0.86 30% 0.8 .24 16% .34 84% .28 1.13 35% 50% 53% +4 +1 1.11 17% 1.5 .26 12% .44 58% .25
Nov
18		 Texas St. F F A+ F F 57% 14% 29% B+ F A D B F A- F D+ B- A A- F D- 56% 26% 18% F+ D- F A+ B+ A+ F B F
0.77 21% 50% 25% -23 +2 0.60 40% 0.9 .35 25% .40 53% .21 1.00 45% 30% 71% +1 +1 1.05 41% 0.5 .21 30% .50 73% .36
Nov
24		 Texas San Antonio F F F C+ F 45% 16% 39% C+ F A- D+ B- F A C- A- A B B A+ A 51% 16% 32% F A- B- D- C A F A+ F
0.98 30% 14% 35% -16 +1 0.73 45% 1.0 .45 24% .36 71% .26 0.81 47% 33% 17% -15 +2 0.76 26% 1.0 .26 23% .56 56% .31
Nov
25		 William & Mary F C+ B- F F 31% 23% 46% F+ F B F D- F B- F F F+ F F D+ F 55% 15% 30% D+ F B- F C- C+ F A F
0.78 63% 42% 21% -7 -1 0.87 35% 0.6 .20 28% .32 35% .11 1.23 85% 57% 36% +18 +2 1.43 24% 1.4 .33 19% .49 67% .33
Dec
2		 Pepperdine B- C+ B+ B- B 33% 24% 43% F C+ C- C+ C- A- A+ C A+ C F+ A+ D- D+ 44% 17% 39% F+ D+ B+ A A- C- F C+ F
1.15 60% 45% 35% +3 -1 1.07 30% 1.1 .33 13% .43 74% .32 1.02 67% 0% 38% -1 +1 1.02 23% 0.7 .15 18% .49 76% .37
Dec
6		 New Mexico St. B D A A+ A+ 36% 26% 38% C- A A D B F A- A- A C A D F+ C 41% 19% 41% F C- F A+ B- A- F D- F
1.22 53% 45% 50% +10 -1 1.19 41% 1.0 .41 21% .46 83% .38 1.09 47% 43% 40% 0 0 1.03 42% 0.6 .26 19% .68 77% .53
Dec
16		 Arizona D+ D- F A- C 36% 36% 29% C C B- C- C+ D A+ D A+ C- F F F F 51% 19% 30% F F B F D- A+ F D- F
0.84 44% 25% 38% -8 -2 0.82 26% 0.8 .21 22% .43 64% .28 1.30 86% 50% 46% +22 +1 1.49 37% 1.3 .47 26% .69 79% .55
Dec
19		 BYU D+ A+ F+ F C- 19% 52% 29% F D B+ B+ A- F B- A+ A B+ F+ F C+ D- 30% 30% 41% B+ D A F F A+ F B- F
0.94 89% 28% 21% -5 -5 0.81 33% 1.3 .42 22% .27 93% .25 1.19 73% 64% 33% +12 -2 1.22 30% 2.3 .70 25% .75 73% .54
Dec
22		 Texas Southern D+ A F F D+ 41% 20% 39% D+ D+ D B C- F A+ A+ A+ B- F A+ A- D 57% 20% 24% F D- A+ F C+ B D B- D+
1.08 74% 22% 28% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.3 .36 22% .50 81% .40 0.98 73% 11% 27% +1 +1 1.07 15% 1.8 .26 20% .34 68% .23
Jan
1		 Utah Tech F A+ F F B- 46% 22% 33% D+ C+ C- F F+ F A D B+ F+ F+ F F F 37% 11% 52% D F B- C+ B- A+ C F D-
0.96 86% 20% 20% +2 0 1.07 31% 0.7 .21 27% .39 68% .27 1.19 71% 60% 46% +16 +1 1.37 26% 0.8 .22 23% .23 92% .21
Jan
3		 Utah Valley A C+ A+ A+ A+ 51% 29% 20% C- A C D- D+ A+ F A+ D- B+ C B- F+ D+ 49% 7% 44% D D+ A- D- B- A+ D F+ D-
1.23 57% 56% 45% +8 0 1.18 30% 0.9 .27 14% .22 92% .20 0.98 60% 33% 39% +4 +2 1.15 31% 1.3 .38 32% .34 75% .25
Jan
8		 Tarleton St. B+ C- A+ A- B 43% 23% 34% C- B- A- A+ A+ D+ A+ C+ A D+ B+ A- A+ A+ 67% 22% 11% F A D F F C F F F
1.16 58% 60% 40% +8 0 1.18 40% 1.6 .64 25% .48 73% .35 1.10 48% 30% 0% -14 +2 0.78 35% 1.7 .61 19% .50 93% .46
Jan
10		 Texas Arlington B- D+ B+ A+ A+ 28% 46% 26% F A- D+ A+ B- D+ A+ F+ A+ F C D- F F 52% 26% 21% C+ F F F F C- F F F
1.09 55% 44% 50% +8 -4 1.10 25% 1.4 .36 18% .59 66% .39 1.24 55% 45% 44% +4 0 1.10 46% 1.4 .63 20% .55 86% .47
Jan
15		 California Baptist F D- D C+ D 52% 27% 20% C D+ D- F F B+ A+ F+ A D- D+ A+ F D- 54% 19% 27% D+ D- C+ B- B- D+ F+ F F
0.91 48% 33% 33% -7 0 0.89 19% 0.3 .05 13% .45 68% .30 1.16 58% 11% 46% 0 +1 1.04 36% 0.8 .30 16% .39 86% .33
Jan
17		 Southern Utah F F F F F 55% 14% 31% A F B- F F F A+ A- A+ C D- A+ D D- 45% 12% 43% F F+ F+ B D+ A- C- C C-
0.73 30% 29% 20% -23 +2 0.59 35% 0.4 .16 21% .44 76% .34 1.04 65% 17% 36% +2 +2 1.10 34% 0.9 .31 24% .26 71% .18
Jan
29		 Utah Tech F D F C- F+ 48% 14% 38% B- D- C- A+ A- F D F F C+ D+ A+ F D+ 45% 17% 38% D+ D+ D+ F F+ A+ F B F
0.95 54% 14% 32% -6 +2 0.92 30% 1.5 .43 20% .26 53% .14 1.03 63% 14% 44% +4 +1 1.12 31% 1.1 .34 28% .57 67% .38
Jan
31		 Southern Utah C- A+ D+ B+ A- 30% 32% 38% F B F A- D C+ D- F F F F F F F 53% 32% 16% C+ F F C F+ A+ F F F
1.11 81% 35% 40% +10 -2 1.17 22% 1.1 .25 13% .20 50% .10 1.16 85% 50% 50% +22 0 1.45 38% 1.0 .38 32% .45 86% .39
Feb
5		 Utah Valley F F F A+ B 34% 27% 39% D C+ C F F F D+ F F A- C- A+ A+ A- 62% 11% 28% F+ B C D- D A+ F A+ D+
0.80 40% 25% 53% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.5 .15 29% .31 47% .14 0.99 62% 20% 23% -4 +3 1.00 37% 1.3 .47 29% .43 52% .23
Feb
7		 California Baptist D F B+ F F 49% 22% 29% B- F+ B+ F D- D A+ D- A+ A- A+ A+ F C+ 51% 15% 33% D C A A+ A+ C F C+ F
0.93 42% 45% 21% -12 +1 0.80 33% 0.5 .16 18% .47 69% .32 0.96 35% 17% 54% -5 +2 0.95 30% 0.3 .10 18% .61 71% .43



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 1.8 8.1 7.6 1.3 0.0 18.9 5th
6th 3.2 13.3 9.7 1.3 0.0 27.6 6th
7th 3.4 13.3 21.2 11.6 1.5 0.0 51.0 7th
Total 3.4 13.3 24.4 26.8 19.3 9.6 2.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 0.5% 8.9% 8.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
8-10 2.8% 5.1% 5.1% 15.4 0.1 0.1 2.6
7-11 9.6% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.0 0.3 9.3
6-12 19.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 19.0
5-13 26.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 26.5
4-14 24.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 24.3
3-15 13.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.3
2-16 3.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.3
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 15.9 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.0%