Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#218
Expected Predictive Rating-3.1#229
Pace73.0#64
Improvement+1.4#34

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#190
First Shot+0.0#183
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#217
Layup/Dunks+5.0#26
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#235
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#294
Freethrows-1.1#262
Improvement+1.3#26

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#236
First Shot-3.3#289
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#60
Layups/Dunks-1.5#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#198
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#141
Freethrows-2.6#335
Improvement+0.1#167
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.0% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 2.5% 6.5% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 9.5% 21.2% 4.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 0.7% 5.0%
First Four1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
First Round1.1% 1.5% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 28.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 32 - 73 - 14
Quad 47 - 311 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 327   Jackson St. W 65-56 82%     1 - 0 -3.2 -17.0 +13.2
  Nov 11, 2022 42   @ Texas A&M L 58-77 8%     1 - 1 -5.6 -7.9 +1.9
  Nov 21, 2022 201   Wright St. L 61-77 47%     1 - 2 -17.6 -17.6 +1.4
  Nov 22, 2022 213   Weber St. L 67-77 49%     1 - 3 -12.2 -6.8 -5.1
  Nov 23, 2022 158   UC Riverside L 65-76 40%     1 - 4 -10.6 -6.9 -4.0
  Nov 27, 2022 293   @ Northern Arizona W 92-82 58%     2 - 4 +5.7 +16.2 -10.4
  Dec 06, 2022 28   @ Kansas St. L 64-81 6%     2 - 5 -1.5 +1.4 -3.5
  Dec 10, 2022 319   Texas A&M - Commerce W 83-64 81%     3 - 5 +7.4 +10.8 -2.1
  Dec 17, 2022 308   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-59 61%     4 - 5 +0.7 +3.5 -1.8
  Dec 29, 2022 135   @ Stephen F. Austin L 68-75 25%     4 - 6 0 - 1 -2.4 +0.4 -3.1
  Dec 31, 2022 187   Tarleton St. W 69-63 55%     5 - 6 1 - 1 +2.3 -7.1 +9.1
  Jan 07, 2023 114   Southern Utah L 72-74 40%     5 - 7 1 - 2 -1.6 -5.3 +3.8
  Jan 11, 2023 279   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 86-103 55%     5 - 8 1 - 3 -20.6 -6.0 -11.4
  Jan 14, 2023 187   @ Tarleton St. L 63-72 35%     5 - 9 1 - 4 -7.2 -6.3 -1.2
  Jan 18, 2023 99   @ Utah Valley L 54-84 18%     5 - 10 1 - 5 -22.6 -17.4 -3.1
  Jan 21, 2023 274   Texas Arlington W 84-68 72%     6 - 10 2 - 5 +7.5 +14.7 -5.9
  Jan 26, 2023 116   Grand Canyon L 73-75 41%     6 - 11 2 - 6 -1.9 +2.8 -4.8
  Jan 28, 2023 211   Utah Tech W 81-76 60%     7 - 11 3 - 6 +0.2 +2.2 -2.3
  Feb 01, 2023 142   @ Seattle W 83-68 26%     8 - 11 4 - 6 +19.3 +14.3 +5.0
  Feb 04, 2023 156   @ California Baptist L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 11, 2023 82   Sam Houston St. L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 15, 2023 184   @ New Mexico St. L 73-77 33%    
  Feb 17, 2023 116   @ Grand Canyon L 67-75 22%    
  Feb 22, 2023 135   Stephen F. Austin L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 25, 2023 99   Utah Valley L 71-75 35%    
  Mar 01, 2023 184   New Mexico St. W 76-75 55%    
  Mar 03, 2023 82   @ Sam Houston St. L 63-75 14%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.1 0.4 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.5 5.5 7.4 2.1 0.0 15.5 8th
9th 0.0 2.2 13.0 16.6 5.4 0.3 37.4 9th
10th 0.4 6.8 10.7 3.1 0.2 0.0 21.2 10th
11th 2.0 6.3 2.3 0.1 10.7 11th
12th 2.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 3.8 12th
13th 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 13th
Total 5.0 17.0 26.6 25.8 16.2 7.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.4% 5.1% 5.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 2.1% 4.8% 4.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.0
9-9 7.0% 3.2% 3.2% 15.8 0.0 0.2 6.8
8-10 16.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.4 15.8
7-11 25.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5 25.3
6-12 26.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.3 26.3
5-13 17.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 16.8
4-14 5.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 5.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.5 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0%
Lose Out 5.0% 0.9% 16.0 0.9