California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.4 #138
Expected Predictive Rating +5.7 #87
Pace 65.1 #276
Improvement -0.2 #196

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #207 D+ C+ C- C B-
Defense #93 B- B D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #22 1.02 #334 +1.0 #139
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #208 0.76 #160 -0.5 #205
Three Pointers 35% #309 0.97 #241 -3.9 #311
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #284 -3.4 #284
Freethrows 0.31 #168 72% #181 0.22 #168
Second Chance 38.0% #19 0.91 #322 0.34 #106
Turnovers 17.9% #239
Total Offense -1.4 #207

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #124 1.07 #75 +0.5 #156
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #105 0.78 #224 -1.0 #273
Three Pointers 37% #294 0.94 #70 +3.7 #46
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #77 +3.1 #76
Freethrows 0.31 #215 74% #284 0.23 #240
Second Chance 25.6% #32 0.97 #89 0.25 #38
Turnovers 15.5% #265
Total Defense +2.8 #93

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #82 -0.2% #150
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.0% #315 -5.9% #66
Possession Length 18.4 #293 17.2 #178
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #297 0.17 #177
Improvement -1.8 #285 +1.6 #92

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.7% 26.7% 20.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.9% 98.1%
Conference Champion 42.4% 46.2% 22.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round25.7% 26.7% 20.1%
Second Round1.3% 1.4% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Home) - 83.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 37 - 8
Quad 416 - 123 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 301 South Carolina Upstate W 87 - 75 88% +8  1 - 0 +1 +10 A+ D A+ -10 D+ C- C+
 Fri, Nov 7 115 @UC Irvine W 69 - 61 33% +3  2 - 0 +14 +3 C B- F +11 A- A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 14 362 Western Illinois W 69 - 59 97% +6  3 - 0 -10 -4 F D- A+ -4 D+ A F
 Tue, Nov 18 291 UC Riverside W 80 - 57 86% +15  4 - 0 +13 -3 F+ C C +14 A+ C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 276 Grambling St. W 72 - 59 85% +13  5 - 0 +3 +3 A+ D+ F +1 C A+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 210 San Diego W 76 - 61 66% +2  6 - 0 +12 +0 D A+ F+ +12 B A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 177 @Oregon St. W 75 - 69 48% +2  7 - 0 +8 +6 B F+ A +2 D+ A+ C
 Mon, Dec 1 77 @Colorado L 70 - 78 19% +2  7 - 1 +3 +2 D- C C +0 B C- C+
 Wed, Dec 3 17 BYU L 60 - 91 7% -18  7 - 2 -13 -6 F+ D D -8 C F D+
 Sat, Dec 6 107 @Utah L 85 - 91 30% -4  7 - 3 +1 +13 D- A+ D+ -12 B- D- D
 Fri, Dec 12 234 @Eastern Washington W 88 - 83 60% +5  8 - 3 +4 +12 B A F+ -8 C- D D-
 Tue, Dec 16 266 Southern W 75 - 67 83% +4  9 - 3 -1 -1 D- D B+ -0 B- C B
 Sat, Dec 20 258 Sacramento St. W 74 - 67 83% +2  10 - 3 -2 -2 F A+ D +0 A F C
 Mon, Dec 29 101 @Utah Valley L 66 - 73 27% -0  10 - 4 0 - 1 +1 -2 A+ F F +3 D A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 165 @Texas Arlington L 51 - 63 46% -4  10 - 5 0 - 2 -9 -12 D D- F +2 A C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 216 @Tarleton St. L 76 - 81 OT 56% -1  10 - 6 0 - 3 -5 +0 B- B- F -5 D- A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 8 209 Utah Tech W 84 - 72 75% +7  11 - 6 1 - 3 +6 +18 D+ A+ A -11 D A D+
 Sat, Jan 10 287 Southern Utah W 58 - 55 86% +6  12 - 6 2 - 3 -7 -11 F B+ A- +4 A+ F C
 Thu, Jan 15 268 @Abilene Christian W 74 - 58 67% +13  13 - 6 3 - 3 +13 +9 D C- A+ +6 B- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 209 Utah Tech W 73 - 64 75% +5  14 - 6 4 - 3 +3 +7 D- A+ A -2 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 101 Utah Valley W 78 - 71 OT 49% +0  15 - 6 5 - 3 +9 +2 B- D+ D+ +7 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 165 @Texas Arlington W 87 - 77 OT 46% +5  16 - 6 6 - 3 +13 +10 C+ B A +2 B- A D-
 Thu, Feb 5 216 Tarleton St. W 56 - 55 77% -1  17 - 6 7 - 3 -5 -14 F C D+ +9 C+ A+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 268 Abilene Christian W 72 - 62 84%
 Thu, Feb 12 287 @Southern Utah W 75 - 69 70%
 Sat, Feb 14 209 @Utah Tech W 70 - 69 54%
 Thu, Feb 19 101 @Utah Valley L 67 - 73 28%
 Thu, Feb 26 165 Texas Arlington W 68 - 63 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 216 Tarleton St. W 75 - 67 77%
 Thu, Mar 5 268 Abilene Christian W 72 - 62 83%
 Sat, Mar 7 287 @Southern Utah W 75 - 69 69%
Totals 22 - 9 12 - 6 +1 -1 D+ C+ C- +3 B- B D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 6.8 16.6 14.4 4.1 42.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.7 10.2 19.5 11.2 1.1 43.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.1 4.7 0.9 10.2 3rd
4th 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.3 3.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.0 7.3 15.7 27.2 27.8 15.5 4.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 4.1    4.1
14-4 92.8% 14.4    10.9 3.5
13-5 59.9% 16.6    7.6 8.8 0.3
12-6 24.8% 6.8    1.2 3.7 1.7 0.2
11-7 3.5% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 42.4% 42.4 23.8 16.1 2.3 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 4.1% 34.9% 34.9% 12.2 0.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.7
14-4 15.5% 33.4% 33.4% 12.7 0.0 1.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.3
13-5 27.8% 30.6% 30.6% 13.0 1.4 5.4 1.7 0.0 19.3
12-6 27.2% 24.0% 24.0% 13.2 0.6 4.0 1.8 0.2 20.7
11-7 15.7% 18.9% 18.9% 13.5 0.1 1.4 1.2 0.2 12.8
10-8 7.3% 11.7% 11.7% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 6.5
9-9 2.0% 9.2% 9.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
8-10 0.4% 0.4
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.7% 25.7% 0.0% 13.1 74.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 12.2 7.0 68.5 23.1 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%