California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#156
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#177
Pace63.1#314
Improvement+0.9#76

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#209
First Shot-0.5#197
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#229
Layup/Dunks+0.5#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#48
Freethrows-1.4#292
Improvement+0.7#60

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#121
First Shot+0.2#166
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#53
Layups/Dunks-1.4#236
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#80
Freethrows+1.3#83
Improvement+0.1#158
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.0% 5.6% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 90.3% 97.1% 83.1%
.500 or above in Conference 72.8% 86.5% 58.3%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.7%
First Round4.8% 5.5% 4.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Home) - 51.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 42 - 5
Quad 35 - 47 - 9
Quad 410 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 169   Long Beach St. L 64-79 62%     0 - 1 -17.5 -9.9 -7.5
  Nov 11, 2022 318   NJIT W 59-43 87%     1 - 1 +4.6 -3.2 +12.0
  Nov 15, 2022 327   Cal St. Northridge W 62-55 88%     2 - 1 -5.1 -10.9 +6.2
  Nov 17, 2022 104   @ Washington W 73-64 27%     3 - 1 +16.1 +7.3 +9.1
  Nov 21, 2022 160   Minnesota L 61-62 OT 51%     3 - 2 -0.5 -7.3 +6.8
  Nov 23, 2022 130   Southern Illinois L 61-64 OT 43%     3 - 3 -0.7 -4.2 +3.4
  Nov 26, 2022 300   Central Michigan W 77-61 85%     4 - 3 +5.6 +3.9 +2.1
  Nov 30, 2022 163   UC Riverside W 65-60 61%     5 - 3 +2.7 -5.7 +8.7
  Dec 03, 2022 297   @ Cal Poly L 53-64 70%     5 - 4 -15.8 -12.7 -4.6
  Dec 07, 2022 214   Weber St. W 64-52 70%     6 - 4 +7.1 +1.0 +8.0
  Dec 10, 2022 215   @ San Diego W 76-73 51%     7 - 4 +3.4 +1.0 +2.5
  Dec 22, 2022 246   Portland St. L 72-74 77%     7 - 5 -9.1 -9.5 +0.5
  Dec 29, 2022 118   @ Grand Canyon L 59-73 32%     7 - 6 0 - 1 -8.5 -11.3 +2.4
  Dec 31, 2022 125   @ Seattle L 65-71 33%     7 - 7 0 - 2 -0.9 -2.7 +1.8
  Jan 05, 2023 212   Utah Tech W 72-58 70%     8 - 7 1 - 2 +9.1 -2.6 +11.6
  Jan 07, 2023 186   @ New Mexico St. W 70-61 46%     9 - 7 2 - 2 +10.8 +5.3 +6.6
  Jan 11, 2023 99   Utah Valley L 67-71 45%     9 - 8 2 - 3 -2.0 +0.4 -2.7
  Jan 14, 2023 118   Grand Canyon W 79-74 52%     10 - 8 3 - 3 +5.1 +11.2 -5.7
  Jan 21, 2023 187   Tarleton St. W 77-48 66%     11 - 8 4 - 3 +25.3 +22.1 +10.4
  Jan 25, 2023 272   @ Texas Arlington W 74-66 64%     12 - 8 5 - 3 +4.9 +5.8 -0.3
  Jan 28, 2023 287   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 58-64 67%     12 - 9 5 - 4 -10.0 -16.9 +6.9
  Feb 01, 2023 114   Southern Utah W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 04, 2023 229   Abilene Christian W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 08, 2023 99   @ Utah Valley L 62-69 25%    
  Feb 11, 2023 186   New Mexico St. W 70-66 67%    
  Feb 15, 2023 125   Seattle W 66-65 55%    
  Feb 23, 2023 77   @ Sam Houston St. L 57-66 19%    
  Feb 26, 2023 135   @ Stephen F. Austin L 65-69 34%    
  Mar 01, 2023 287   UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-67 84%    
  Mar 03, 2023 114   @ Southern Utah L 69-74 31%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 2.5 0.2 3.6 3rd
4th 0.3 3.6 1.9 0.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.3 3.5 6.4 0.5 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 4.5 11.1 3.5 0.0 19.7 6th
7th 0.8 5.8 14.0 7.9 0.4 29.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 4.9 10.4 7.2 1.3 0.0 24.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.2 1.7 7.7 17.5 26.0 24.2 15.0 6.0 1.4 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 95.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 34.3% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.2% 11.2% 11.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 1.4% 11.3% 11.3% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
12-6 6.0% 9.5% 9.5% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 5.4
11-7 15.0% 6.4% 6.4% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 14.0
10-8 24.2% 5.5% 5.5% 14.6 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 22.9
9-9 26.0% 3.9% 3.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.2 25.0
8-10 17.5% 3.9% 3.9% 15.8 0.2 0.5 16.8
7-11 7.7% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.6
6-12 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.0 1.0 95.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 11.2% 12.2 1.9 5.6 3.7
Lose Out 0.2%