California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#183
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#207
Pace62.2#336
Improvement-3.5#316

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#215
First Shot-3.5#279
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#54
Layup/Dunks-1.3#223
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#230
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#221
Freethrows+0.1#172
Improvement-1.5#267

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#168
First Shot-1.3#214
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#77
Layups/Dunks-5.7#344
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#85
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#43
Freethrows-0.4#221
Improvement-2.0#289
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 4.1% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 28.8% 45.4% 7.5%
.500 or above in Conference 4.7% 8.3% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 0.6% 1.2%
First Round3.3% 3.8% 2.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Home) - 56.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 35 - 65 - 10
Quad 49 - 514 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 297   Jackson St. W 80-66 80%     1 - 0 +3.8 +9.3 -4.4
  Nov 17, 2023 252   Portland St. L 63-66 71%     1 - 1 -10.1 -8.4 -1.8
  Nov 18, 2023 179   St. Thomas W 66-62 59%     2 - 1 +0.2 +0.7 +0.2
  Nov 19, 2023 335   Cal Poly W 67-58 89%     3 - 1 -5.6 -0.7 -3.7
  Nov 29, 2023 224   @ Southern Utah W 91-66 47%     4 - 1 +24.5 +14.7 +9.5
  Dec 06, 2023 274   Utah Tech L 69-72 75%     4 - 2 0 - 1 -11.2 -4.2 -7.1
  Dec 12, 2023 53   @ Oregon L 55-76 11%     4 - 3 -8.7 -9.6 -0.2
  Dec 16, 2023 204   @ UC Riverside W 70-69 45%     5 - 3 +1.0 +7.4 -6.3
  Dec 19, 2023 134   Western Kentucky L 70-73 48%     5 - 4 -3.7 -8.2 +4.8
  Dec 27, 2023 296   Chicago St. W 74-62 80%     6 - 4 +1.8 +8.3 -4.8
  Dec 30, 2023 268   @ New Mexico St. L 61-66 55%     6 - 5 -7.5 -14.0 +6.6
  Jan 04, 2024 155   @ Utah Valley L 58-65 33%     6 - 6 0 - 2 -3.9 -3.1 -1.6
  Jan 06, 2024 114   @ Seattle L 46-48 22%     6 - 7 0 - 3 +4.7 -16.3 +20.8
  Jan 11, 2024 132   Tarleton St. W 77-63 47%     7 - 7 1 - 3 +13.4 +11.9 +3.0
  Jan 13, 2024 208   Abilene Christian W 68-53 66%     8 - 7 2 - 3 +9.5 -2.7 +12.9
  Jan 20, 2024 224   Southern Utah W 83-76 68%     9 - 7 3 - 3 +1.0 +4.9 -4.0
  Jan 25, 2024 322   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 63-54 70%     10 - 7 4 - 3 +2.1 -4.6 +7.8
  Jan 27, 2024 164   @ Stephen F. Austin W 81-79 35%     11 - 7 5 - 3 +4.7 +9.7 -5.0
  Feb 03, 2024 114   Seattle L 60-61 40%     11 - 8 5 - 4 +0.2 +1.4 -1.3
  Feb 08, 2024 149   Texas Arlington W 64-63 52%     12 - 8 6 - 4 -0.8 -5.7 +5.0
  Feb 10, 2024 274   @ Utah Tech L 78-85 55%     12 - 9 6 - 5 -9.7 +9.6 -19.5
  Feb 15, 2024 155   Utah Valley L 46-69 54%     12 - 10 6 - 6 -25.4 -20.4 -7.0
  Feb 17, 2024 70   @ Grand Canyon L 76-79 13%     12 - 11 6 - 7 +7.7 +11.9 -4.3
  Feb 22, 2024 208   @ Abilene Christian L 65-71 45%     12 - 12 6 - 8 -6.1 -1.7 -4.7
  Feb 24, 2024 132   @ Tarleton St. L 65-82 28%     12 - 13 6 - 9 -12.2 +0.2 -14.0
  Feb 29, 2024 164   Stephen F. Austin W 68-67 56%    
  Mar 02, 2024 322   UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-66 85%    
  Mar 07, 2024 149   @ Texas Arlington L 67-72 31%    
  Mar 08, 2024 70   Grand Canyon L 66-73 28%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 8 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 1.0 3.5 4.4 4th
5th 0.2 10.1 1.2 11.5 5th
6th 4.4 10.6 0.0 15.1 6th
7th 0.7 19.2 2.3 22.2 7th
8th 0.4 13.3 16.6 0.1 30.5 8th
9th 2.4 11.5 1.2 15.0 9th
10th 0.9 0.4 1.3 10th
11th 11th
Total 3.7 25.9 41.7 24.1 4.7 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 4.7% 6.1% 6.1% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.4
9-11 24.1% 4.6% 4.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.1 23.0
8-12 41.7% 3.5% 3.5% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.0 40.2
7-13 25.9% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.7 25.1
6-14 3.7% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 3.6
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.8 96.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.7% 6.1% 14.3 0.5 3.2 2.3
Lose Out 3.7% 1.6% 16.0 1.6