California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.5 #148
Expected Predictive Rating +3.1 #122
Pace 65.1 #290
Improvement -4.6 #358

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #190 C- C C D B+
Defense #119 C+ D+ B+ D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #8 1.05 #298 +3.1 #89
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #261 0.80 #118 -1.1 #231
Three Pointers 36% #296 0.95 #253 -3.9 #305
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #228 -1.9 #227
Freethrows 17.7 #168 74% #144 13.1 #154
Second Chance 37.8% #23 0.87 #338 0.33 #153
Turnovers 18.5% #282
Total Offense -1.0 #190

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #136 1.08 #87 +0.6 #158
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #120 0.83 #282 -1.5 #287
Three Pointers 38% #276 0.95 #110 +3.0 #76
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #112 +2.1 #113
Freethrows 18.1 #223 76% #300 13.7 #103
Second Chance 25.4% #27 0.99 #115 0.25 #36
Turnovers 15.1% #274
Total Defense +1.5 #119

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.6% #36 -0.2% #154
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.3% #273 -4.0% #109
Possession Length 18.1 #259 17.2 #193
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #325 0.17 #176
Improvement -3.0 #340 -1.6 #285

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.4% 14.9% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 13.8
.500 or above 96.9% 98.5% 92.4%
.500 or above in Conference 67.6% 75.0% 46.8%
Conference Champion 7.0% 8.7% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.4% 4.7%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round13.4% 14.9% 8.9%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Home) - 73.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 56 - 11
Quad 415 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 285 South Carolina Upstate W 87-75 84%     8.3   1 - 0 +2.0 +9.2 -7.4
  Fri, Nov 7 126 @UC Irvine W 69-61 33%     2.7   2 - 0 +13.2 +0.8 +12.2
  Fri, Nov 14 357 Western Illinois W 69-59 94%     5.7   3 - 0 -7.0 -2.5 -3.3
  Tue, Nov 18 297 UC Riverside W 80-57 85%     14.7   4 - 0 +12.3 -5.4 +15.8
  Fri, Nov 21 244 Grambling St. W 72-59 79%     13.5   5 - 0 +5.2 +2.8 +3.5
  Tue, Nov 25 229 San Diego W 76-61 67%     2.2   6 - 0 +11.1 +0.6 +10.3
  Sat, Nov 29 197 @Oregon St. W 75-69 50%     1.8   7 - 0 +6.6 +4.8 +2.0
  Mon, Dec 1 80 @Colorado L 70-78 18%     2.2   7 - 1 +2.2 +1.6 +0.4
  Wed, Dec 3 10 BYU L 44-66 5%     -18.0   7 - 2 -2.2 +1.7 -14.7
  Sat, Dec 6 117 @Utah L 85-91 29%     -4.4   7 - 3 +0.3 +12.5 -12.1
  Fri, Dec 12 248 @Eastern Washington W 88-83 60%     4.8   8 - 3 +2.8 +10.1 -7.3
  Tue, Dec 16 254 Southern W 75-67 80%     4.2   9 - 3 -0.5 -0.7 +0.3
  Sat, Dec 20 293 Sacramento St. W 74-67 85%     1.7   10 - 3 -3.5 -1.0 -2.2
  Mon, Dec 29 99 @Utah Valley L 66-73 23%     -0.2   10 - 4 0 - 1 +1.3 -1.7 +3.1
  Thu, Jan 1 159 @Texas Arlington L 51-63 41%     -3.5   10 - 5 0 - 2 -9.1 -12.1 +1.8
  Sat, Jan 3 162 @Tarleton St. L 76-81 OT 42%     -0.8   10 - 6 0 - 3 -2.4 +0.4 -2.5
  Thu, Jan 8 219 Utah Tech W 73-66 74%    
  Sat, Jan 10 332 Southern Utah W 79-65 91%    
  Thu, Jan 15 210 @Abilene Christian W 68-67 52%    
  Wed, Jan 21 219 Utah Tech W 73-66 73%    
  Sat, Jan 24 99 Utah Valley L 69-71 43%    
  Sat, Jan 31 159 @Texas Arlington L 65-67 41%    
  Thu, Feb 5 162 Tarleton St. W 74-70 65%    
  Sat, Feb 7 210 Abilene Christian W 70-64 72%    
  Thu, Feb 12 332 @Southern Utah W 76-68 78%    
  Sat, Feb 14 219 @Utah Tech W 70-69 53%    
  Thu, Feb 19 99 @Utah Valley L 66-74 24%    
  Thu, Feb 26 159 Texas Arlington W 68-64 64%    
  Sat, Feb 28 162 Tarleton St. W 74-70 64%    
  Thu, Mar 5 210 Abilene Christian W 70-64 72%    
  Sat, Mar 7 332 @Southern Utah W 76-68 78%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.6 1.5 0.2 7.0 1st
2nd 0.2 2.7 7.3 6.7 2.5 0.3 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.1 10.0 6.7 1.4 0.1 22.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 5.3 9.9 4.8 0.7 0.0 21.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.9 6.8 3.1 0.2 16.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.8 3.5 1.2 0.1 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 7th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.6 5.6 9.2 13.8 17.3 17.7 15.2 10.2 5.2 1.8 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 83.8% 1.5    1.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 50.1% 2.6    1.4 1.1 0.1
12-6 21.1% 2.2    0.5 1.1 0.4 0.0
11-7 3.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.0% 7.0 3.2 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.2% 42.9% 42.9% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
14-4 1.8% 34.5% 34.5% 12.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.2
13-5 5.2% 31.0% 31.0% 12.9 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.6
12-6 10.2% 26.9% 26.9% 13.2 0.3 1.6 0.8 0.0 7.5
11-7 15.2% 19.4% 19.4% 13.4 0.2 1.4 1.2 0.1 12.2
10-8 17.7% 12.2% 12.2% 13.7 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 15.5
9-9 17.3% 8.7% 8.7% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 15.8
8-10 13.8% 7.0% 7.0% 14.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 12.8
7-11 9.2% 4.6% 4.6% 15.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.7
6-12 5.6% 3.4% 3.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.4
5-13 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.5
4-14 1.0% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 1.3 5.4 4.8 1.5 0.3 86.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.9 19.0 71.4 9.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%