California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.2 139
Expected Predictive Rating +4.8 97
Pace 65.1 271
Improvement -1.8 258

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 229 D C+ C- C B-
Defense B- 79 B- B+ D C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 30 F+ 48% 358 -0.6 199
2 Pt. Jumpers 39% 166 C 38% 182 -0.6 207
Three Pointers 36% 284 C- 33% 224 -3.1 284
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.6 98 D- -4.7 329
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 310
Second Chance B+ 37.4% 21 D- 0.88 347 C+ 0.33 135
Turnovers C- 17.5% 222
Freethrows C 0.30 205 C 72% 193 C 0.22 195
Total Offense C- -2.2 229

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 35% 344 C+ 10.5% 149
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 319 B- 4.0% 107
Three Pointers D+ 79% 288 F+ 1.9% 343
Total F+ 44% 353 C- 6.2% 240

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 107 B 53% 58 -0.4 162
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 111 C 38% 192 +0.7 246
Three Pointers 36% 317 B- 32% 87 -3.6 43
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 162 B -3.2 61
1st FG Attempt B- 0.95 73
Second Chance B+ 26.0% 37 B 0.93 49 B+ 0.24 30
Turnovers D 14.9% 300
Freethrows C- 0.32 225 C- 73% 220 C- 0.23 231
Total Defense B- +3.3 79

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 43% 67 C- 9.6% 226
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 19% 56 F+ 1.0% 354
Three Pointers C+ 82% 112 D+ 0.4% 279
Total B 49% 43 D+ 4.4% 280

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 294 17.2 159
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 304 0.16 149
Improvement -3.5 #334 +1.7 #94

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23% 25% 19%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.1 13.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 33% 42% 13%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round23% 25% 19%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 68.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 36 - 47 - 9
Quad 416 - 123 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 302 South Carolina Upstate W 87 - 75 87% +8  95% 1 - 0 C +1 B+ +8 A+ D- A+ D- -7 D+ C B-
 Fri, Nov 7 117 @UC Irvine W 69 - 61 32% +3  55% 2 - 0 B+ +14 C +0 C+ C+ F A+ +13 A A+ F+
 Fri, Nov 14 362 Western Illinois W 69 - 59 97% +6  88% 3 - 0 D -11 D- -7 F D- A C- -2 D+ A F+
 Tue, Nov 18 280 UC Riverside W 80 - 57 85% +15  95% 4 - 0 B+ +13 D -6 F+ C C- A+ +17 A+ C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 293 Grambling St. W 72 - 59 86% +13  97% 5 - 0 C+ +3 C +1 A+ D+ F B- +2 C- A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 220 San Diego W 76 - 61 67% +2  54% 6 - 0 B+ +12 D+ -3 D- A+ F A+ +14 B+ A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 160 @Oregon St. W 75 - 69 43% +2  50% 7 - 0 B +9 B- +4 B+ F A B +5 D+ A+ C
 Mon, Dec 1 72 @Colorado L 70 - 78 18% +2  64% 7 - 1 C+ +3 C +0 D- C C B- +3 B C- C+
 Wed, Dec 3 21 BYU L 60 - 91 7% -18  1% 7 - 2 D- -14 F+ -9 F D D- D -5 C+ F C-
 Sat, Dec 6 102 @Utah L 85 - 91 26% -4  1% 7 - 3 C+ +2 A +11 D- A+ D F+ -9 B- D- D-
 Fri, Dec 12 201 @Eastern Washington W 88 - 83 52% +5  71% 8 - 3 B- +6 A- +9 B A+ F D+ -4 C- D D-
 Tue, Dec 16 266 Southern W 75 - 67 83% +4  89% 9 - 3 C -1 D+ -3 D- D- B+ B- +3 B- C- B+
 Sat, Dec 20 270 Sacramento St. W 74 - 67 84% +2  62% 10 - 3 C- -2 D -5 F A+ D- B- +3 A F C+
 Mon, Dec 29 95 @Utah Valley L 66 - 73 24% -0  45% 10 - 4 0 - 1 C +1 D -5 A+ F F B+ +6 D+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 176 @Texas Arlington L 51 - 63 47% -4  3% 10 - 5 0 - 2 D -10 F -15 D F+ F B +4 A C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 224 @Tarleton St. L 76 - 81 OT 56% -1  25% 10 - 6 0 - 3 D+ -6 C- -1 B B F D+ -4 D- A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 8 197 Utah Tech W 84 - 72 73% +7  89% 11 - 6 1 - 3 B- +7 A+ +16 D+ A+ A D- -8 D A D
 Sat, Jan 10 273 Southern Utah W 58 - 55 84% +6  95% 12 - 6 2 - 3 D+ -7 F -13 F A- A- A- +7 A+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 242 @Abilene Christian W 74 - 58 60% +13  85% 13 - 6 3 - 3 A- +15 B+ +9 D C A+ A- +8 B- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 197 Utah Tech W 73 - 64 73% +5  81% 14 - 6 4 - 3 C+ +4 B- +4 D- A+ A C+ +1 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 95 Utah Valley W 78 - 71 OT 45% +0  54% 15 - 6 5 - 3 B +9 C- -1 B- D+ D+ A +10 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 176 @Texas Arlington W 87 - 77 OT 47% +5  95% 16 - 6 6 - 3 B+ +12 B +7 C+ B A B +4 B A F+
 Thu, Feb 5 224 Tarleton St. W 56 - 55 77% -1  31% 17 - 6 7 - 3 D+ -6 F -16 F C D+ A +10 C+ A+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 242 Abilene Christian W 65 - 63 79% +4  82% 18 - 6 8 - 3 D+ -5 F+ -8 F F A B- +3 A- A D-
 Thu, Feb 12 273 @Southern Utah W 83 - 66 68% +8  95% 19 - 6 9 - 3 B+ +13 B+ +9 C- A+ B- B+ +5 C- A+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 197 @Utah Tech L 65 - 70 51% -1  34% 19 - 7 9 - 4 C- -4 D -4 F C- A+ C -0 C- B+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 95 @Utah Valley L 46 - 65 24% -10  0% 19 - 8 9 - 5 D -11 F -21 F F F A +9 A- A D
 Thu, Feb 26 176 Texas Arlington W 67 - 62 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 224 Tarleton St. W 73 - 65 77%
 Thu, Mar 5 242 Abilene Christian W 70 - 61 79%
 Sat, Mar 7 273 @Southern Utah W 74 - 69 67%
Totals 22 - 9 12 - 6 +1 C- -2 D D- B- B- +3 C- C C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- F+ C C- D- 45% 39% 36% B- D B+ D- C+ C- C C C B- B C B- B 42% 22% 36% C B- B+ B B+ D C- C- C-
1.06 48% 38% 33% -5 +1 0.94 37% 0.9 .33 17% .30 72% .22 1.04 53% 38% 32% -3 0 0.95 26% 0.9 .24 15% .32 73% .22
Nov
3		 South Carolina Upstate B+ B- A+ A- A+ 58% 13% 28% A- A+ B+ F D- A+ B- F D+ D- D- D A D+ 44% 25% 31% C D+ B F C B- F C F
1.23 61% 71% 40% +9 +2 1.25 37% 0.7 .26 10% .33 57% .19 1.06 62% 42% 27% -1 0 1.00 24% 1.1 .27 20% .51 69% .35
Nov
7		 UC Irvine C F A+ A- C- 48% 17% 35% A- C+ A+ F C+ F B- D- C A+ A+ A+ F A 40% 36% 25% B+ A A A+ A+ F+ F+ A+ C
0.96 32% 56% 39% -7 +1 0.90 48% 0.7 .33 24% .28 67% .18 0.85 33% 26% 46% -10 -2 0.79 23% 0.7 .17 14% .37 57% .21
Nov
14		 Western Illinois D- F F F F 42% 8% 50% B- F A+ F D- A B A- A- C- C+ F A+ D+ 51% 28% 21% F+ D+ A+ D+ A F+ F D- F
1.10 50% 25% 25% -11 +2 0.83 46% 0.7 .30 10% .35 80% .28 0.94 50% 46% 20% -6 0 0.89 12% 1.0 .12 13% .38 71% .27
Nov
18		 UC Riverside D F A+ F F 64% 20% 16% B+ F+ A+ F C C- B- D- C A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 46% 21% 33% C- A+ D A C+ A+ B+ B B+
1.05 47% 55% 22% -7 +2 0.93 47% 0.6 .29 16% .36 65% .23 0.75 42% 45% 24% -11 0 0.81 31% 0.7 .21 29% .24 69% .17
Nov
21		 Grambling St. C A- A+ B+ A+ 61% 7% 32% A A+ C+ F+ D+ F C+ D+ C+ B- D F+ A+ C 40% 18% 43% D+ C- A+ A+ A+ C+ F F F
1.12 68% 67% 38% +10 +3 1.29 35% 0.9 .30 28% .37 71% .26 0.91 63% 43% 24% -4 +1 0.95 17% 0.0 .00 22% .46 91% .42
Nov
25		 San Diego D+ F F B- F+ 42% 12% 47% B- D- C A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ A+ F B A+ A 46% 12% 42% F B+ A+ F A+ C- C+ A+ B+
1.07 50% 20% 35% -5 +1 0.95 35% 1.5 .55 24% .52 79% .41 0.86 75% 33% 14% -6 +2 0.94 3% 4.0 .13 17% .22 62% .14
Nov
29		 Oregon St. B- B- F A B+ 54% 17% 29% B- B+ D F F A C F D+ B A A F D+ 38% 15% 47% D+ D+ A+ A+ A+ C A- F C+
1.11 61% 22% 40% +1 +2 1.08 27% 0.7 .19 10% .33 65% .22 1.03 44% 29% 45% +1 +1 1.06 14% 1.0 .14 18% .31 88% .27
Dec
1		 Colorado C D+ F F F 64% 13% 23% A+ D- B+ F C C A+ B- A+ B- A+ D F B 46% 24% 30% C+ B D C+ C- C+ F D+ F
1.03 53% 29% 17% -10 +3 0.87 33% 0.9 .28 16% .42 75% .32 1.15 48% 45% 43% +1 0 1.04 36% 0.9 .33 15% .53 77% .41
Dec
3		 BYU F+ F F C- F 46% 17% 37% A+ F A- F D D- A+ B+ A+ D D+ D C C+ 38% 20% 42% D C+ D- F F C- A D A
0.87 38% 11% 32% -15 +1 0.73 34% 0.6 .22 20% .34 74% .25 1.31 67% 45% 35% +5 0 1.13 42% 1.6 .68 13% .23 79% .18
Dec
6		 Utah A C+ F F+ D- 42% 25% 34% D+ D- A+ A+ A+ D B+ D- B- F+ B- F B- C+ 41% 22% 37% B- B- B- F D- D- F D- F
1.20 59% 23% 28% -6 0 0.89 53% 1.3 .72 17% .32 63% .20 1.29 55% 55% 33% +2 0 1.06 29% 1.3 .38 13% .60 78% .47
Dec
12		 Eastern Washington A- B- A+ D B 53% 18% 29% B- B A+ D- A+ F A+ A- A+ D+ A- D- F C 56% 21% 23% F+ C- D+ D D D- F A F
1.25 63% 75% 31% +8 +1 1.20 54% 1.0 .54 21% .50 82% .41 1.18 48% 45% 50% +2 +1 1.08 33% 1.2 .39 16% .45 67% .30
Dec
16		 Southern D+ C+ C+ F+ F+ 25% 10% 65% C+ D- C+ F D- B+ A B+ A+ B- A+ A D B 38% 24% 38% D+ B- C- C C- B+ D F+ D-
1.08 62% 40% 30% -2 0 0.98 34% 0.8 .27 16% .45 81% .36 0.97 42% 25% 37% -8 0 0.86 32% 1.0 .32 20% .36 75% .27
Dec
20		 Sacramento St. D F B+ D F 61% 9% 30% A- F A A- A+ D- A+ D+ A+ B- A+ F A+ A 22% 35% 44% A A F F F C+ A+ F+ A+
1.10 33% 50% 31% -16 +3 0.77 43% 1.3 .55 19% .55 70% .38 0.99 17% 58% 21% -11 -3 0.75 38% 1.4 .51 16% .11 83% .09
Dec
29		 Utah Valley D A A+ D A+ 53% 23% 25% B- A+ C- F F F A A+ A+ B+ D- D+ B D 57% 19% 24% C D+ A+ A+ A+ F D+ A+ A-
0.94 67% 67% 30% +9 +1 1.23 28% 0.0 .00 33% .42 85% .36 1.04 68% 40% 31% +5 +2 1.15 9% 0.7 .06 11% .32 45% .14
Jan
1		 Texas Arlington F C- D+ F D+ 33% 40% 28% F+ D D+ F F+ F F+ C- F+ B A A+ B+ A 38% 29% 33% A A C+ C+ C+ F F F F
0.80 57% 35% 25% -5 -3 0.86 25% 0.9 .21 27% .30 71% .21 0.99 44% 25% 29% -12 -1 0.76 34% 0.9 .31 16% .43 87% .37
Jan
3		 Tarleton St. C- B A B- B- 46% 13% 41% B B A- C- B F D C D D+ F A- F F 33% 41% 26% A+ D- A+ A+ A+ C- F C F
1.02 67% 50% 37% +7 +1 1.20 41% 1.0 .41 28% .34 72% .24 1.09 67% 32% 50% +6 -3 1.09 21% 0.6 .12 19% .64 74% .48
Jan
8		 Utah Tech A+ F B+ C+ D 46% 15% 39% C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ B+ A+ D- D B F+ D 49% 19% 32% D+ D C A+ A D F F F
1.35 48% 43% 33% -4 +1 0.96 52% 1.4 .73 11% .47 77% .36 1.15 65% 33% 40% +5 +1 1.15 29% 0.4 .13 14% .34 78% .26
Jan
10		 Southern Utah F F F F F 39% 27% 35% D+ F A+ C- A- A- A F B- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 18% 40% D+ A+ F F F C+ C D C-
0.95 37% 23% 18% -21 -1 0.59 44% 1.0 .42 10% .35 58% .20 0.90 42% 13% 22% -18 +1 0.67 36% 1.3 .46 20% .25 75% .18
Jan
15		 Abilene Christian B+ C- F A+ D 54% 19% 27% C+ D A- F C A+ D- A+ C+ A- B+ B- C B 52% 27% 20% D+ B- A+ A+ A+ F F B- F
1.16 58% 11% 46% 0 +1 1.04 36% 0.8 .30 16% .39 86% .33 0.91 48% 33% 33% -7 0 0.89 19% 0.3 .05 13% .45 68% .30
Jan
21		 Utah Tech B- F D+ C- D- 49% 18% 33% C+ D- B- A+ A+ A A F C+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ 36% 28% 36% A A+ D+ F F F B+ F C-
1.18 50% 33% 31% -6 +1 0.92 35% 1.4 .49 11% .38 57% .22 1.03 37% 20% 42% -8 -1 0.83 31% 1.2 .36 10% .18 100% .18
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Utah Valley C- D+ F+ A+ B- 50% 22% 28% B- B- C- D- D+ D+ A+ D+ A+ A B+ F A+ A+ 58% 11% 30% D A+ A- A+ A+ D F D+ F
1.03 52% 30% 46% 0 +1 1.04 29% 0.9 .26 22% .53 71% .37 0.93 52% 50% 13% -12 +3 0.83 30% 0.7 .21 18% .52 72% .37
Jan
31		 Texas Arlington B D+ B- C+ B- 36% 34% 30% D C+ C A B A A+ D+ A+ B A F+ B+ B- 32% 25% 42% A B C+ A+ A F+ B- F C-
1.11 56% 41% 33% 0 -2 0.98 28% 1.4 .38 13% .53 69% .37 0.99 42% 47% 28% -7 -1 0.86 34% 0.7 .23 17% .32 81% .26
Feb
5		 Tarleton St. F F A F F 43% 27% 30% D F A+ F C D+ C+ A B+ A F C- A+ C 45% 39% 16% A- C+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ F A+
0.85 26% 50% 23% -15 -1 0.70 47% 0.8 .35 24% .40 80% .32 0.84 70% 40% 0% -2 -2 0.94 13% 0.8 .10 20% .11 83% .09
Feb
7		 Abilene Christian F+ F F A+ F 51% 15% 33% B- F B- F F A A+ C- A+ B- A+ F A+ A 49% 22% 29% D- A- C A+ A D- F C+ F
0.96 35% 17% 54% -5 +2 0.95 30% 0.3 .10 18% .61 71% .43 0.93 42% 45% 21% -12 +1 0.80 33% 0.5 .16 18% .47 69% .32
Feb
12		 Southern Utah B+ F A+ B C 40% 29% 31% D C- B A+ A+ B- F B+ F B+ C+ A F C- 46% 24% 30% C C- A A+ A+ F F A+ C-
1.23 43% 59% 39% +3 -1 1.05 37% 1.4 .51 12% .13 75% .10 0.98 57% 25% 40% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 12% .34 55% .18
Feb
14		 Utah Tech D F C D F 28% 15% 57% D+ F B+ F C- A+ A F C+ C A C F C 50% 15% 35% D- C- B+ B B+ F D- A- D+
1.01 20% 38% 29% -15 0 0.72 39% 0.8 .30 8% .37 59% .22 1.09 46% 38% 50% +2 +2 1.10 24% 0.8 .19 11% .30 65% .19
Feb
19		 Utah Valley F F F F F 50% 17% 33% B F B+ F F F F B+ F A C+ A B A- 50% 23% 27% B+ A- D A+ A D C C C
0.70 39% 25% 27% -15 +1 0.74 37% 0.5 .17 31% .20 78% .15 0.99 58% 27% 31% -4 +1 0.96 40% 0.7 .29 18% .30 69% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 11.1 21.0 33.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 15.8 28.6 8.2 54.6 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.2 6.3 0.9 11.8 3rd
4th 0.3 0.4 0.7 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
Total 0.8 6.4 23.0 40.6 29.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 71.9% 21.0    7.8 12.4 0.8
12-6 27.2% 11.1    1.6 6.6 2.9
11-7 4.1% 0.9    0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.0% 33.0 9.4 19.3 4.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 29.2% 27.9% 27.9% 12.8 0.0 2.2 5.1 0.8 21.1
12-6 40.6% 23.9% 23.9% 13.2 0.9 5.7 2.9 0.1 30.9
11-7 23.0% 17.7% 17.7% 13.4 0.2 2.1 1.7 0.1 18.9
10-8 6.4% 12.4% 12.4% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 5.6
9-9 0.8% 9.9% 9.9% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.8% 22.8% 0.0% 13.1 77.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.2% 100.0% 12.8 0.1 27.1 63.0 9.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.1%
Lose Out 0.3%