California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#217
Expected Predictive Rating+9.2#66
Pace72.0#103
Improvement-0.2#193

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#141
First Shot+2.7#102
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#279
Layup/Dunks+4.8#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#354
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#121
Freethrows+1.1#106
Improvement-1.2#295

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#284
First Shot-2.4#260
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#243
Layups/Dunks-4.9#320
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#146
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#117
Freethrows+0.2#175
Improvement+0.9#90
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.6 14.7
.500 or above 80.6% 84.6% 62.7%
.500 or above in Conference 63.9% 66.6% 52.0%
Conference Champion 4.3% 4.7% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 1.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Home) - 81.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 43 - 9
Quad 413 - 316 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 95-66 98%     1 - 0 +1.4 -2.6 +0.7
  Nov 16, 2021 258   Jackson St. W 77-64 72%     2 - 0 +4.6 +10.5 -4.7
  Nov 18, 2021 280   San Jose St. W 67-66 75%     3 - 0 -8.3 -7.4 -0.8
  Nov 21, 2021 175   Northern Colorado W 74-70 55%     4 - 0 +0.3 -2.0 +2.4
  Nov 24, 2021 11   @ Texas L 44-68 4%     4 - 1 -5.2 -13.8 +5.3
  Dec 02, 2021 316   Cal Poly W 74-65 82%    
  Dec 07, 2021 330   North Dakota W 82-70 86%    
  Dec 12, 2021 139   @ UC Riverside L 65-72 25%    
  Dec 18, 2021 4   @ Arizona L 67-90 1%    
  Dec 21, 2021 303   Southeast Missouri St. W 83-74 79%    
  Jan 01, 2022 173   Seattle W 77-76 55%    
  Jan 08, 2022 355   @ Chicago St. W 81-68 87%    
  Jan 12, 2022 306   Dixie St. W 85-76 79%    
  Jan 15, 2022 152   Utah Valley L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 20, 2022 155   @ Tarleton St. L 63-69 29%    
  Jan 22, 2022 143   @ Abilene Christian L 70-77 27%    
  Jan 26, 2022 218   Sam Houston St. W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 29, 2022 158   Stephen F. Austin W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 03, 2022 102   @ New Mexico St. L 69-79 19%    
  Feb 05, 2022 110   @ Grand Canyon L 66-75 20%    
  Feb 10, 2022 319   Lamar W 81-71 80%    
  Feb 12, 2022 286   UT Rio Grande Valley W 83-76 75%    
  Feb 16, 2022 110   Grand Canyon L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 19, 2022 173   @ Seattle L 74-79 34%    
  Feb 24, 2022 306   @ Dixie St. W 82-79 60%    
  Feb 26, 2022 152   @ Utah Valley L 69-75 29%    
  Mar 02, 2022 355   Chicago St. W 84-65 95%    
  Mar 05, 2022 319   @ Lamar W 78-74 61%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 4.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 2.6 1.9 0.5 0.0 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.7 2.4 0.6 0.0 7.8 3rd
4th 0.7 4.2 3.9 0.7 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.8 1.2 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.4 3.7 5.9 2.0 0.1 12.1 6th
7th 0.4 2.7 6.3 3.5 0.3 0.0 13.2 7th
8th 0.2 2.2 5.8 3.3 0.5 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.4 3.5 0.7 0.0 10.9 9th
10th 0.2 1.5 3.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 1.6 1.2 0.2 4.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.7 7.0 9.4 12.9 14.5 13.5 12.4 10.3 6.4 3.8 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 94.5% 0.7    0.5 0.2
15-3 73.0% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1
14-4 32.3% 1.2    0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 8.5% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.3% 4.3 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.1
17-1 0.2% 0.2
16-2 0.7% 0.7
15-3 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 13.0 0.0 2.0
14-4 3.8% 1.2% 1.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
13-5 6.4% 3.4% 3.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.2
12-6 10.3% 1.0% 1.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 10.2
11-7 12.4% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.3
10-8 13.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.2 0.1 0.0 13.4
9-9 14.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 14.4
8-10 12.9% 12.9
7-11 9.4% 9.4
6-12 7.0% 7.0
5-13 3.7% 3.7
4-14 2.1% 2.1
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 14.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 99.3 0.0%