Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.1#114
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#113
Pace76.8#25
Improvement+1.0#60

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#90
First Shot+3.1#80
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#190
Layup/Dunks+5.2#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#336
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#220
Freethrows+1.6#67
Improvement+0.2#139

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#168
First Shot-2.2#245
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#19
Layups/Dunks-0.5#205
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#336
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#197
Freethrows+0.8#119
Improvement+0.8#65
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.7% 11.9% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 13.5
.500 or above 96.1% 99.2% 93.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.9% 98.7%
Conference Champion 18.7% 28.2% 9.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round10.6% 11.8% 9.5%
Second Round1.6% 2.0% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 47.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 22 - 6
Quad 38 - 410 - 9
Quad 46 - 116 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 50   @ New Mexico L 81-89 18%     0 - 1 +4.6 +4.7 +0.7
  Nov 18, 2022 7   @ Kansas L 76-82 7%     0 - 2 +13.2 +2.9 +11.0
  Nov 25, 2022 210   Texas St. L 65-78 69%     0 - 3 -15.0 -7.3 -7.5
  Nov 26, 2022 217   Sacramento St. W 91-87 2OT 70%     1 - 3 +1.5 +0.8 +0.0
  Nov 30, 2022 121   Montana St. L 83-86 62%     1 - 4 -3.0 +3.3 -6.0
  Dec 03, 2022 284   @ Idaho St. W 69-59 75%     2 - 4 +6.1 -5.8 +12.0
  Dec 10, 2022 155   Cal St. Fullerton W 67-60 59%     3 - 4 +7.7 -1.8 +9.6
  Dec 17, 2022 293   Northern Arizona W 106-101 OT 88%     4 - 4 -4.8 +5.4 -11.1
  Dec 21, 2022 60   @ Colorado L 78-86 21%     4 - 5 +3.4 +6.7 -2.5
  Dec 28, 2022 186   @ New Mexico St. W 79-75 55%     5 - 5 1 - 0 +5.8 +2.6 +3.0
  Dec 31, 2022 287   UT Rio Grande Valley W 94-88 OT 87%     6 - 5 2 - 0 -3.4 -2.1 -2.4
  Jan 05, 2023 187   @ Tarleton St. L 65-68 55%     6 - 6 2 - 1 -1.3 -1.3 -0.2
  Jan 07, 2023 229   @ Abilene Christian W 74-72 64%     7 - 6 3 - 1 +1.3 -3.0 +4.2
  Jan 12, 2023 77   Sam Houston St. W 86-74 45%     8 - 6 4 - 1 +16.3 +19.7 -3.1
  Jan 14, 2023 135   Stephen F. Austin W 67-58 64%     9 - 6 5 - 1 +8.4 -5.9 +14.3
  Jan 19, 2023 186   New Mexico St. W 111-76 74%     10 - 6 6 - 1 +31.4 +29.4 +0.1
  Jan 21, 2023 125   @ Seattle L 60-81 42%     10 - 7 6 - 2 -15.9 -12.6 -1.6
  Jan 26, 2023 99   Utah Valley W 79-67 54%     11 - 7 7 - 2 +14.0 +3.5 +9.8
  Feb 01, 2023 156   @ California Baptist L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 04, 2023 212   @ Utah Tech W 80-77 58%    
  Feb 09, 2023 187   Tarleton St. W 78-71 75%    
  Feb 11, 2023 99   @ Utah Valley L 74-78 33%    
  Feb 17, 2023 212   Utah Tech W 82-74 78%    
  Feb 23, 2023 272   @ Texas Arlington W 75-69 71%    
  Feb 25, 2023 77   @ Sam Houston St. L 67-74 27%    
  Mar 01, 2023 118   Grand Canyon W 75-72 63%    
  Mar 03, 2023 156   California Baptist W 74-69 70%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.8 8.9 5.0 0.8 18.7 1st
2nd 0.0 2.8 10.1 5.0 0.2 18.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 9.1 7.5 0.7 18.5 3rd
4th 0.3 5.8 9.3 1.8 17.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 8.3 3.4 0.1 14.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 4.6 2.6 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 1.9 0.3 4.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.2 1.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.1 9.2 18.2 24.8 23.5 14.5 5.2 0.8 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
15-3 95.9% 5.0    3.8 1.1 0.1
14-4 60.9% 8.9    2.8 3.9 1.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 16.4% 3.8    0.2 1.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.7% 18.7 7.7 6.2 3.6 1.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.8% 24.1% 24.1% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
15-3 5.2% 18.4% 18.2% 0.2% 12.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 4.2 0.2%
14-4 14.5% 15.5% 15.5% 12.6 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 12.3
13-5 23.5% 11.2% 11.2% 13.0 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.6 0.0 20.8
12-6 24.8% 9.7% 9.7% 13.4 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.9 0.1 22.4
11-7 18.2% 7.8% 7.8% 14.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 16.8
10-8 9.2% 6.9% 6.9% 14.9 0.1 0.6 0.0 8.6
9-9 3.1% 4.8% 4.8% 15.5 0.1 0.1 3.0
8-10 0.6% 0.6
7-11 0.1% 0.0 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.7% 10.6% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.2 2.5 1.3 0.1 89.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 24.1% 11.2 2.4 15.7 4.8 1.2