Southern Utah
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.9#140
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#174
Pace72.9#88
Improvement+2.5#29

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#121
First Shot-2.2#242
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#6
Layup/Dunks+0.8#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#301
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#232
Freethrows+1.4#95
Improvement+1.8#32

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#165
First Shot+1.2#130
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#251
Layups/Dunks-0.7#215
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#129
Freethrows+2.2#55
Improvement+0.7#115
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.0% 22.3% 17.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 89.1% 94.5% 83.0%
.500 or above in Conference 93.5% 97.7% 88.7%
Conference Champion 24.9% 32.9% 15.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.8% 0.4% 1.2%
First Round19.8% 22.3% 17.1%
Second Round2.1% 2.9% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Away) - 53.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 414 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 306   @ Dixie St. L 76-83 75%     0 - 1 -12.1 -6.2 -5.3
  Nov 15, 2021 41   @ St. Mary's L 51-70 14%     0 - 2 -5.4 -12.4 +6.9
  Nov 18, 2021 122   @ California L 68-75 2OT 35%     0 - 3 -1.1 -8.1 +7.8
  Nov 23, 2021 121   Yale W 88-85 OT 46%     1 - 3 +5.9 +4.4 +1.1
  Nov 24, 2021 224   Bowling Green W 87-73 67%     2 - 3 +11.2 +6.5 +4.1
  Dec 02, 2021 203   @ Eastern Washington W 78-77 53%    
  Dec 04, 2021 351   @ Idaho W 83-69 90%    
  Dec 08, 2021 152   Utah Valley W 74-70 64%    
  Dec 18, 2021 15   @ Michigan L 63-79 7%    
  Dec 22, 2021 306   Dixie St. W 87-74 88%    
  Dec 30, 2021 295   Sacramento St. W 79-67 86%    
  Jan 01, 2022 175   Northern Colorado W 78-72 70%    
  Jan 06, 2022 269   Portland St. W 78-67 83%    
  Jan 08, 2022 317   Northern Arizona W 80-66 89%    
  Jan 13, 2022 207   @ Montana W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 15, 2022 181   @ Montana St. L 75-76 49%    
  Jan 22, 2022 311   Idaho St. W 74-61 89%    
  Jan 24, 2022 97   Weber St. L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 27, 2022 269   @ Portland St. W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 03, 2022 351   Idaho W 86-66 96%    
  Feb 05, 2022 203   Eastern Washington W 81-74 72%    
  Feb 12, 2022 295   @ Sacramento St. W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 14, 2022 175   @ Northern Colorado L 75-76 49%    
  Feb 19, 2022 181   Montana St. W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 21, 2022 317   @ Northern Arizona W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 24, 2022 207   Montana W 75-68 72%    
  Mar 03, 2022 311   @ Idaho St. W 71-64 74%    
  Mar 05, 2022 97   @ Weber St. L 72-78 29%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.0 3.0 5.8 7.2 5.2 2.0 0.5 24.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 7.0 8.8 5.6 2.3 0.2 25.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.1 6.1 2.1 0.4 17.7 3rd
4th 0.3 2.7 4.7 3.8 1.0 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.4 0.2 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.9 2.0 2.9 4.6 7.8 10.5 12.3 15.1 14.0 11.8 9.4 5.4 2.0 0.5 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 2.0    1.9 0.1
18-2 96.9% 5.2    4.5 0.7
17-3 75.9% 7.2    5.0 2.0 0.1
16-4 49.4% 5.8    3.0 2.4 0.4 0.0
15-5 21.6% 3.0    1.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.4% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.9% 24.9 16.3 6.9 1.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 56.0% 56.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
19-1 2.0% 49.7% 49.7% 12.5 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.0 1.0
18-2 5.4% 38.3% 38.3% 13.2 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 3.3
17-3 9.4% 33.7% 33.7% 13.7 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.4 6.3
16-4 11.8% 27.8% 27.8% 14.2 0.0 0.6 1.5 1.1 0.0 8.5
15-5 14.0% 23.9% 23.9% 14.6 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.2 10.7
14-6 15.1% 19.5% 19.5% 14.9 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.6 12.2
13-7 12.3% 15.4% 15.4% 15.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 10.4
12-8 10.5% 11.8% 11.8% 15.4 0.1 0.6 0.6 9.2
11-9 7.8% 6.1% 6.1% 15.8 0.1 0.4 7.3
10-10 4.6% 4.3% 4.3% 15.7 0.1 0.1 4.4
9-11 2.9% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.1 2.8
8-12 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.0
7-13 0.9% 0.9
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.5 5.9 6.6 2.8 80.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 7.8 4.3 4.3 43.5 47.8