Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.1 #287
Expected Predictive Rating -6.6 #272
Pace 74.3 #47
Improvement +7.5 #3

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #279 C- C- D D C
Defense #275 D+ C D- B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #108 1.19 #134 +2.3 #105
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #151 0.64 #339 -0.8 #228
Three Pointers 37% #267 0.94 #283 -3.5 #299
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #235 -2.0 #234
Freethrows 0.25 #335 71% #217 0.18 #329
Second Chance 28.1% #250 1.01 #195 0.28 #247
Turnovers 19.5% #318
Total Offense -4.0 #279

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #82 1.15 #168 -2.1 #250
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #126 0.79 #244 -0.9 #258
Three Pointers 36% #322 1.18 #355 -0.3 #199
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #284 -3.3 #284
Freethrows 0.26 #45 71% #102 0.18 #39
Second Chance 32.7% #269 0.97 #94 0.32 #192
Turnovers 13.5% #340
Total Defense -3.1 #275

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #184 0.2% #184
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.0% #240 6.2% #296
Possession Length 17.1 #147 16.1 #25
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #184 0.19 #249
Improvement +4.8 #11 +2.7 #45

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.3% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 9.2% 16.5% 2.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 22.0% 8.5% 33.6%
First Four0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Home) - 46.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 113 - 17
Quad 45 - 48 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 73 @Arizona St. L 64 - 81 6% -11  0 - 1 -6 -7 F C+ D+ +2 D- A B+
 Sat, Nov 8 179 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 95 39% -11  0 - 2 -27 -5 D D+ B+ -21 F C C-
 Sat, Nov 15 242 @Nebraska Omaha L 85 - 90 30% -3  0 - 3 -7 +6 B D- C+ -12 F A+ D-
 Mon, Nov 17 14 @Gonzaga L 50 - 122 1% -34  0 - 4 -51 -19 F D- F -21 F F+ D-
 Wed, Nov 19 127 @Washington St. L 74 - 98 13% -12  0 - 5 -19 -0 B+ F F -18 D+ F F
 Fri, Nov 28 214 @Robert Morris L 54 - 61 25% -11  0 - 6 -7 -15 F C- F +8 A C D
 Sat, Nov 29 335 Stetson W 70 - 68 65% -3  1 - 6 -9 -8 D- D- D- -1 D+ D B
 Sat, Dec 6 177 @Oregon St. L 70 - 81 20% -11  1 - 7 -9 -2 D+ A- F+ -7 F C+ C+
 Sat, Dec 13 45 @Washington L 69 - 105 3% -18  1 - 8 -21 +1 A- F C+ -22 F C F
 Thu, Dec 18 306 @Northern Arizona L 57 - 65 44% -0  1 - 9 -14 -17 F F F +3 B C- F+
 Mon, Dec 29 209 @Utah Tech L 66 - 80 24% -2  1 - 10 0 - 1 -14 -9 D- D F -5 D+ C- C
 Sat, Jan 3 165 Texas Arlington L 77 - 86 36% -1  1 - 11 0 - 2 -12 +2 B- D+ D -15 F A- D
 Thu, Jan 8 101 @Utah Valley L 72 - 89 9% -10  1 - 12 0 - 3 -9 +2 C C B- -11 F+ C- C
 Sat, Jan 10 138 @California Baptist L 55 - 58 14% -6  1 - 13 0 - 4 +1 -5 F A+ F +6 A+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 15 216 Tarleton St. W 106 - 105 OT 47% +5  2 - 13 1 - 4 -5 +8 C+ B+ B+ -13 D- F+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 268 Abilene Christian W 74 - 52 57% +11  3 - 13 2 - 4 +13 -2 C- C- C- +15 A+ A+ C
 Wed, Jan 21 101 Utah Valley W 84 - 70 20% +4  4 - 13 3 - 4 +16 +13 A+ A- D- +3 A+ B F
 Sat, Jan 24 209 @Utah Tech L 91 - 102 24% -8  4 - 14 3 - 5 -11 +15 B C+ A- -26 F+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 165 @Texas Arlington L 61 - 80 18% -14  4 - 15 3 - 6 -16 -8 F+ F C+ -9 D C- D-
 Sat, Jan 31 268 @Abilene Christian W 79 - 76 35% -4  5 - 15 4 - 6 -0 +9 A+ B- F -9 F B- F
 Sat, Feb 7 216 Tarleton St. L 77 - 78 46%
 Thu, Feb 12 138 California Baptist L 69 - 75 30%
 Sat, Feb 14 165 @Texas Arlington L 67 - 77 18%
 Thu, Feb 19 216 @Tarleton St. L 74 - 81 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 268 @Abilene Christian L 71 - 75 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 209 Utah Tech L 75 - 76 45%
 Thu, Mar 5 101 Utah Valley L 72 - 81 21%
 Sat, Mar 7 138 California Baptist L 69 - 75 31%
Totals 8 - 20 7 - 11 -7 -4 C- C- D -3 D+ C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.2 2.6 3rd
4th 1.0 3.9 3.7 0.7 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 2.0 12.6 19.7 10.5 1.9 0.1 46.8 5th
6th 2.2 11.9 13.5 3.6 0.2 31.3 6th
7th 4.2 4.5 0.7 0.0 9.4 7th
Total 6.4 18.4 26.8 24.4 14.9 6.6 2.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 40.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 4.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 2.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 2.1
9-9 6.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 6.5
8-10 14.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 14.7
7-11 24.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 24.1
6-12 26.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 26.6
5-13 18.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 18.3
4-14 6.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.4
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 16.0 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.3%