Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
104 Liberty 43.8%   15   10 - 6 4 - 0 19 - 9 13 - 3 +4.5      +3.0 99 +1.5 123 61.2 342 +2.6 132 +10.9 2
136 Jacksonville St. 25.2%   9 - 6 4 - 0 17 - 9 12 - 3 +1.8      +1.3 138 +0.5 157 64.8 297 +1.5 149 +11.0 1
192 Bellarmine 0.1%   6 - 8 4 - 0 13 - 12 11 - 4 -1.4      +2.1 111 -3.5 286 61.4 339 +0.4 162 +7.9 4
214 Kennesaw St. 9.5%   4 - 8 3 - 0 11 - 14 10 - 6 -2.4      -1.2 211 -1.2 208 70.6 123 -4.1 240 +9.8 3
216 Eastern Kentucky 6.5%   5 - 10 1 - 4 11 - 15 7 - 9 -2.5      -0.9 202 -1.6 220 79.1 9 -8.6 297 -14.7 11
221 Florida Gulf Coast 6.4%   10 - 7 2 - 3 16 - 12 8 - 8 -2.8      +0.2 171 -3.0 270 74.3 60 -1.0 190 -5.4 7
238 Jacksonville 5.5%   7 - 5 3 - 1 13 - 11 9 - 7 -4.2      -6.1 327 +1.9 115 61.5 338 +0.2 166 +3.8 5
280 Lipscomb 1.3%   5 - 12 1 - 4 10 - 18 6 - 10 -6.9      +0.3 167 -7.2 342 72.7 74 -7.9 290 -12.6 10
293 Stetson 0.8%   3 - 11 1 - 4 7 - 18 5 - 11 -7.8      -4.3 287 -3.5 287 63.7 311 -9.0 301 -11.0 8
298 North Alabama 0.1%   4 - 10 1 - 4 8 - 17 5 - 11 -8.0      -7.8 344 -0.2 176 72.5 77 -9.0 302 -11.2 9
313 North Florida 0.5%   1 - 14 0 - 5 5 - 22 4 - 12 -8.7      -4.3 288 -4.4 305 69.0 172 -16.0 345 -21.1 12
329 Central Arkansas 0.3%   4 - 12 3 - 2 7 - 20 6 - 10 -11.1      -2.7 253 -8.4 350 76.3 29 -6.1 268 -1.2 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Liberty 1.5 68.8 18.8 7.7 3.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 2.3 27.2 37.8 19.9 9.3 3.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bellarmine 3.3 12.5 21.9 25.2 19.8 10.6 5.7 2.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 3.6 12.4 17.6 21.7 19.8 13.5 7.8 4.1 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 6.8 0.1 1.3 3.8 8.6 14.4 18.3 19.3 14.0 9.6 6.0 3.1 1.5
Florida Gulf Coast 5.5 0.8 3.7 9.5 16.3 21.8 19.9 13.0 7.6 3.9 2.2 1.0 0.3
Jacksonville 4.9 3.0 8.3 14.6 19.2 20.2 15.6 9.6 4.8 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1
Lipscomb 8.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 5.2 9.0 14.2 16.8 16.8 15.3 12.5 7.1
Stetson 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.3 6.0 11.0 13.7 16.6 16.9 17.8 12.9
North Alabama 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.5 7.3 12.0 16.3 17.7 17.5 14.8 9.3
North Florida 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 4.0 7.3 10.3 14.6 22.0 39.0
Central Arkansas 8.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 5.3 9.5 14.6 18.7 18.2 16.2 10.8 3.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Liberty 13 - 3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.8 8.9 16.2 22.8 24.1 16.3 6.0
Jacksonville St. 12 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 5.5 11.9 19.9 24.6 21.4 11.5 2.7
Bellarmine 11 - 5 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.9 8.1 14.2 19.8 20.9 16.7 10.1 3.9 0.8
Kennesaw St. 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 5.9 10.9 15.9 19.1 18.1 13.5 8.4 3.8 1.2 0.1
Eastern Kentucky 7 - 9 0.0 0.4 1.8 5.2 12.0 18.2 21.6 18.9 13.1 6.5 2.0 0.3
Florida Gulf Coast 8 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.6 10.5 17.0 21.9 20.7 14.6 6.6 1.9 0.3
Jacksonville 9 - 7 0.1 0.7 3.2 7.0 12.8 18.3 19.8 17.5 11.8 5.9 2.4 0.6 0.1
Lipscomb 6 - 10 0.5 3.0 8.9 16.5 21.7 21.0 15.3 8.4 3.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
Stetson 5 - 11 1.4 6.1 13.5 20.0 21.8 18.2 11.2 5.2 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
North Alabama 5 - 11 0.6 3.9 10.7 19.6 23.3 20.2 13.4 5.9 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Florida 4 - 12 1.6 8.2 16.7 22.8 21.7 15.2 8.8 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
Central Arkansas 6 - 10 6.2 17.5 23.9 22.7 16.2 8.4 3.6 1.0 0.3 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 68.8% 51.9 13.8 2.7 0.3 0.0
Jacksonville St. 27.2% 14.3 10.1 2.4 0.3 0.0
Bellarmine 12.5% 5.4 5.1 1.7 0.3 0.0
Kennesaw St. 12.4% 6.2 4.3 1.5 0.3 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 0.8% 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville 3.0% 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Lipscomb 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Stetson 0.0% 0.0 0.0
North Alabama 0.0% 0.0
North Florida
Central Arkansas 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 43.8% 43.8% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.2 1.9 11.1 19.3 10.0 1.3 56.2 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 25.2% 25.2% 0.0% 0.2 2.0 7.9 10.9 4.3 74.8 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.9 5.9 90.5 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 5.8 93.5 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 3.2 93.6 0.0%
Jacksonville 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.7 94.5 0.0%
Lipscomb 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.2 98.7 0.0%
Stetson 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%
North Alabama 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
North Florida 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 43.8% 0.1% 43.8% 6.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 25.2% 0.9% 24.9% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 9.5% 3.7% 7.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 6.5% 4.6% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 6.4% 1.2% 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 5.5% 2.0% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 1.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 93.4% 0.9 6.6 93.4
2nd Round 8.6% 0.1 91.4 8.6
Sweet Sixteen 2.0% 0.0 98.0 2.0
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0