Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#238
Expected Predictive Rating+0.2#166
Pace61.5#338
Improvement-3.4#312

Offense
Total Offense-6.1#327
First Shot-5.1#316
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#256
Layup/Dunks-0.7#190
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#206
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#261
Freethrows-1.3#283
Improvement+0.1#168

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#115
First Shot+1.8#118
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#163
Layups/Dunks+0.9#148
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#211
Freethrows-0.7#244
Improvement-3.5#342
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 7.7% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 66.0% 83.1% 59.0%
.500 or above in Conference 76.3% 90.6% 70.5%
Conference Champion 3.0% 6.9% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four2.0% 1.9% 2.0%
First Round4.6% 6.9% 3.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Away) - 29.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 9
Quad 412 - 314 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 272   N.C. A&T W 63-54 67%     1 - 0 +0.4 -12.4 +12.9
  Nov 16, 2021 81   @ Central Florida L 54-63 10%     1 - 1 +0.6 -6.0 +5.3
  Nov 24, 2021 91   @ Minnesota L 44-55 12%     1 - 2 -2.2 -19.8 +16.5
  Dec 02, 2021 351   @ Charleston Southern W 67-56 79%     2 - 2 -1.5 -12.2 +10.6
  Dec 07, 2021 201   @ Georgia L 58-69 31%     2 - 3 -10.1 -18.4 +8.5
  Dec 11, 2021 256   UNC Wilmington W 77-48 63%     3 - 3 +21.5 +2.8 +19.6
  Dec 14, 2021 309   @ Southern Miss W 62-51 57%     4 - 3 +5.0 -3.0 +9.6
  Dec 21, 2021 139   @ Pittsburgh L 55-64 22%     4 - 4 -4.9 -7.1 +0.9
  Jan 08, 2022 221   Florida Gulf Coast W 69-66 55%     5 - 4 1 - 0 -2.3 -1.8 -0.3
  Jan 11, 2022 293   Stetson W 57-50 72%     6 - 4 2 - 0 -3.3 -11.2 +9.1
  Jan 15, 2022 313   @ North Florida W 54-51 58%     7 - 4 3 - 0 -3.2 -12.0 +9.4
  Jan 18, 2022 104   @ Liberty L 49-88 15%     7 - 5 3 - 1 -32.0 -12.0 -27.2
  Jan 22, 2022 192   @ Bellarmine L 59-64 29%    
  Jan 24, 2022 214   @ Kennesaw St. L 61-65 33%    
  Jan 27, 2022 280   Lipscomb W 70-65 71%    
  Jan 29, 2022 329   Central Arkansas W 73-64 83%    
  Feb 03, 2022 298   @ North Alabama W 61-60 53%    
  Feb 05, 2022 136   @ Jacksonville St. L 57-65 20%    
  Feb 09, 2022 216   Eastern Kentucky W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 12, 2022 104   Liberty L 57-63 30%    
  Feb 16, 2022 293   @ Stetson W 60-59 52%    
  Feb 19, 2022 214   Kennesaw St. W 64-63 55%    
  Feb 23, 2022 313   North Florida W 66-59 76%    
  Feb 26, 2022 221   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 64-68 34%    
Projected Record 13 - 11 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 3.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.2 3.4 1.0 0.1 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 5.7 6.0 1.6 0.1 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 7.1 8.4 2.3 0.1 19.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 7.1 9.2 2.7 0.1 20.2 5th
6th 0.3 5.1 7.8 2.2 0.1 15.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 5.2 1.9 0.1 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.9 1.3 0.1 4.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.2 1.0 0.2 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.2 7.0 12.8 18.3 19.8 17.5 11.8 5.9 2.4 0.6 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-2 84.4% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
13-3 57.0% 1.4    0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-4 14.9% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1
11-5 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.1% 44.2% 44.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.6% 16.0% 16.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-3 2.4% 16.7% 16.7% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.0
12-4 5.9% 13.7% 13.7% 15.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 5.1
11-5 11.8% 9.6% 9.6% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.7 10.6
10-6 17.5% 6.6% 6.6% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 16.3
9-7 19.8% 5.0% 5.0% 15.9 0.1 0.9 18.8
8-8 18.3% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6 17.7
7-9 12.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 12.6
6-10 7.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.9
5-11 3.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.2
4-12 0.7% 0.7
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.7 94.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%