Eastern Kentucky
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#216
Expected Predictive Rating-8.6#297
Pace79.1#9
Improvement-3.8#328

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#202
First Shot-1.1#221
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#165
Layup/Dunks-7.2#354
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#186
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.6#9
Freethrows-1.3#281
Improvement-4.6#352

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#220
First Shot+0.0#171
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#307
Layups/Dunks-0.6#209
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#281
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#67
Freethrows-0.9#259
Improvement+0.8#145
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 7.0% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 18.0% 21.0% 5.7%
.500 or above in Conference 40.7% 46.1% 18.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 2.1% 12.3%
First Four4.6% 4.9% 3.6%
First Round4.8% 5.3% 3.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Home) - 80.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 410 - 712 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 269   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77-71 53%     1 - 0 +2.7 +0.7 +1.8
  Nov 16, 2021 180   James Madison L 78-79 53%     1 - 1 -4.2 -8.3 +4.3
  Nov 20, 2021 255   Albany W 77-64 68%     2 - 1 +5.5 +1.1 +3.9
  Nov 22, 2021 352   Eastern Illinois W 82-43 92%     3 - 1 +21.0 -4.4 +21.2
  Nov 26, 2021 43   @ West Virginia L 77-80 8%     3 - 2 +9.9 +18.5 -8.9
  Nov 28, 2021 285   @ Radford L 75-88 58%     3 - 3 -17.6 -3.3 -13.6
  Dec 04, 2021 112   @ Western Kentucky L 80-85 19%     3 - 4 +1.7 +6.9 -5.1
  Dec 07, 2021 26   @ USC L 68-80 6%     3 - 5 +3.2 +0.1 +3.5
  Dec 11, 2021 200   Marshall L 69-80 56%     3 - 6 -15.1 -15.5 +1.7
  Dec 18, 2021 264   Northern Kentucky W 81-68 OT 70%     4 - 6 +5.0 -8.9 +11.9
  Jan 04, 2022 329   Central Arkansas L 72-79 85%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -20.6 -14.2 -6.0
  Jan 08, 2022 192   @ Bellarmine L 61-66 36%     4 - 8 0 - 2 -3.9 -7.8 +3.4
  Jan 11, 2022 298   @ North Alabama L 75-76 61%     4 - 9 0 - 3 -6.5 -6.2 -0.1
  Jan 15, 2022 136   Jacksonville St. L 65-76 43%     4 - 10 0 - 4 -11.7 -7.5 -4.4
  Jan 18, 2022 280   Lipscomb W 86-72 75%     5 - 10 1 - 4 +4.6 +5.1 -0.5
  Jan 22, 2022 313   North Florida W 80-71 81%    
  Jan 27, 2022 221   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 79-81 40%    
  Jan 29, 2022 293   @ Stetson W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 03, 2022 214   Kennesaw St. W 77-75 61%    
  Feb 05, 2022 104   Liberty L 69-74 36%    
  Feb 09, 2022 238   @ Jacksonville L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 12, 2022 280   @ Lipscomb W 83-81 55%    
  Feb 16, 2022 298   North Alabama W 77-69 79%    
  Feb 19, 2022 329   @ Central Arkansas W 86-80 69%    
  Feb 23, 2022 136   @ Jacksonville St. L 70-77 25%    
  Feb 26, 2022 192   Bellarmine W 74-73 57%    
Projected Record 11 - 15 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.1 0.9 0.0 3.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.2 2.9 0.3 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 6.1 6.1 1.1 14.4 5th
6th 0.7 7.2 8.5 1.9 0.1 18.3 6th
7th 0.4 5.7 10.1 3.0 0.1 19.3 7th
8th 0.1 2.7 8.2 3.0 0.1 14.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 5.3 3.3 0.2 9.6 9th
10th 0.2 2.3 3.2 0.4 6.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.8 5.2 12.0 18.2 21.6 18.9 13.1 6.5 2.0 0.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 22.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 3.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.3% 17.0% 17.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-5 2.0% 18.1% 18.1% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.7
10-6 6.5% 12.9% 12.9% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 5.7
9-7 13.1% 10.9% 10.9% 15.9 0.1 1.3 11.6
8-8 18.9% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5 17.3
7-9 21.6% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 1.2 20.4
6-10 18.2% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.8 17.4
5-11 12.0% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 11.8
4-12 5.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.1
3-13 1.8% 1.8
2-14 0.4% 0.4
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.6 5.8 93.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 14.7 33.3 62.5 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.0%