Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.8#293
Expected Predictive Rating-9.0#301
Pace63.7#311
Improvement+0.2#175

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#287
First Shot-3.7#284
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#229
Layup/Dunks-0.9#203
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#120
Freethrows-3.6#350
Improvement+0.6#139

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#287
First Shot-4.7#319
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#78
Layups/Dunks-4.1#314
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#93
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#253
Freethrows+0.1#184
Improvement-0.4#201
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.2% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 7.8% 14.4% 3.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.7% 11.1% 33.7%
First Four0.8% 1.2% 0.6%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Away) - 39.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 46 - 87 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 125   @ Georgia Tech L 52-77 12%     0 - 1 -19.7 -18.2 -0.6
  Nov 17, 2021 163   @ Miami (OH) L 65-80 17%     0 - 2 -12.4 -5.7 -7.6
  Nov 19, 2021 335   @ Lamar W 60-59 55%     1 - 2 -7.9 -9.0 +1.3
  Nov 27, 2021 225   Campbell L 58-60 41%     1 - 3 -7.5 -9.2 +1.3
  Dec 01, 2021 151   @ Florida Atlantic L 73-83 15%     1 - 4 -6.8 +3.1 -10.3
  Dec 04, 2021 252   @ Florida International L 65-72 30%     1 - 5 -9.4 -7.8 -1.4
  Dec 11, 2021 84   Ohio L 45-55 13%     1 - 6 -5.8 -18.0 +10.6
  Dec 16, 2021 203   College of Charleston W 67-59 37%     2 - 6 +3.7 -7.9 +11.6
  Dec 20, 2021 58   @ Miami (FL) L 72-82 5%     2 - 7 +1.1 +8.2 -8.1
  Jan 04, 2022 104   Liberty L 59-75 18%     2 - 8 0 - 1 -14.0 -6.4 -9.5
  Jan 08, 2022 313   @ North Florida W 68-66 OT 44%     3 - 8 1 - 1 -4.2 -6.9 +2.8
  Jan 11, 2022 238   @ Jacksonville L 50-57 28%     3 - 9 1 - 2 -8.6 -11.5 +1.7
  Jan 15, 2022 214   Kennesaw St. L 49-77 39%     3 - 10 1 - 3 -32.9 -22.4 -12.7
  Jan 18, 2022 221   Florida Gulf Coast L 91-93 OT 41%     3 - 11 1 - 4 -7.3 +2.0 -9.1
  Jan 22, 2022 298   @ North Alabama L 64-66 40%    
  Jan 27, 2022 192   Bellarmine L 64-68 37%    
  Jan 29, 2022 216   Eastern Kentucky L 70-73 41%    
  Feb 03, 2022 280   @ Lipscomb L 71-74 36%    
  Feb 05, 2022 329   @ Central Arkansas W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 09, 2022 136   Jacksonville St. L 62-69 27%    
  Feb 12, 2022 221   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 67-74 23%    
  Feb 16, 2022 238   Jacksonville L 59-60 48%    
  Feb 19, 2022 104   @ Liberty L 56-71 8%    
  Feb 23, 2022 214   @ Kennesaw St. L 64-72 22%    
  Feb 26, 2022 313   North Florida W 69-66 64%    
Projected Record 7 - 18 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.8 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.4 3.2 2.2 0.2 6.0 6th
7th 0.4 4.4 5.5 0.8 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.1 3.4 8.4 1.8 0.0 13.7 8th
9th 0.0 2.4 9.6 4.4 0.1 16.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 8.2 6.9 0.6 16.9 10th
11th 0.0 1.3 6.9 8.0 1.5 0.0 17.8 11th
12th 1.4 4.8 5.4 1.3 0.1 12.9 12th
Total 1.4 6.1 13.5 20.0 21.8 18.2 11.2 5.2 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0%
11-5 8.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0% 0.0
11-5 0.1% 3.6% 3.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1
10-6 0.5% 5.8% 5.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5
9-7 2.0% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 1.9
8-8 5.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 5.0
7-9 11.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 10.9
6-10 18.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 18.0
5-11 21.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 21.7
4-12 20.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.0
3-13 13.5% 13.5
2-14 6.1% 6.1
1-15 1.4% 1.4
0-16
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%