North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.0#298
Expected Predictive Rating-9.0#302
Pace72.5#77
Improvement-1.8#254

Offense
Total Offense-7.8#344
First Shot-7.0#339
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#245
Layup/Dunks-4.4#322
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#205
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#173
Freethrows-2.2#317
Improvement+0.0#174

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#176
First Shot+0.3#166
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#221
Layups/Dunks-1.2#225
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#174
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#48
Freethrows-2.3#308
Improvement-1.7#274
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 8.3% 12.0% 2.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.3% 10.5% 32.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stetson (Home) - 60.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 41 - 11
Quad 48 - 68 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 48   @ Mississippi St. L 49-75 4%     0 - 1 -13.6 -18.8 +4.7
  Nov 19, 2021 267   Manhattan L 51-55 41%     0 - 2 -9.7 -23.4 +13.6
  Nov 20, 2021 90   Iona L 65-81 10%     0 - 3 -9.6 -8.9 +0.3
  Nov 28, 2021 339   @ Alabama St. W 81-69 56%     1 - 3 +2.4 +0.6 +1.1
  Dec 01, 2021 357   Mississippi Valley W 72-58 92%     2 - 3 -10.0 -15.0 +4.7
  Dec 08, 2021 334   Alabama A&M W 56-45 71%     3 - 3 -2.9 -13.8 +11.9
  Dec 14, 2021 8   @ Auburn L 44-70 1%     3 - 4 -5.7 -19.3 +13.7
  Dec 22, 2021 81   @ Central Florida L 64-75 6%     3 - 5 -1.4 +0.5 -2.6
  Dec 28, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 63-93 1%     3 - 6 -4.9 -6.5 +4.4
  Jan 04, 2022 280   @ Lipscomb L 74-84 36%     3 - 7 0 - 1 -14.4 -6.1 -8.1
  Jan 08, 2022 136   Jacksonville St. L 55-65 24%     3 - 8 0 - 2 -10.7 -21.1 +10.8
  Jan 11, 2022 216   Eastern Kentucky W 76-75 39%     4 - 8 1 - 2 -4.0 -9.3 +5.1
  Jan 15, 2022 329   @ Central Arkansas L 88-89 OT 52%     4 - 9 1 - 3 -9.6 -10.8 +1.4
  Jan 18, 2022 192   @ Bellarmine L 60-68 19%     4 - 10 1 - 4 -6.9 -7.0 -0.9
  Jan 22, 2022 293   Stetson W 66-64 60%    
  Jan 27, 2022 104   @ Liberty L 57-72 8%    
  Jan 29, 2022 214   @ Kennesaw St. L 65-73 21%    
  Feb 03, 2022 238   Jacksonville L 60-61 47%    
  Feb 05, 2022 313   North Florida W 70-67 63%    
  Feb 09, 2022 221   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 68-76 22%    
  Feb 12, 2022 192   Bellarmine L 65-69 37%    
  Feb 16, 2022 216   @ Eastern Kentucky L 69-77 21%    
  Feb 19, 2022 280   Lipscomb W 74-73 57%    
  Feb 23, 2022 329   Central Arkansas W 78-72 71%    
  Feb 26, 2022 136   @ Jacksonville St. L 60-72 12%    
Projected Record 8 - 17 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.9 0.0 3.5 5th
6th 0.5 3.9 2.7 0.2 7.3 6th
7th 0.4 4.6 6.1 0.9 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.1 3.9 9.7 2.5 0.1 16.3 8th
9th 0.0 2.3 10.5 4.6 0.2 17.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 8.6 7.1 0.7 0.0 17.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 5.4 7.3 1.3 0.0 14.8 11th
12th 0.6 3.1 4.2 1.3 0.1 9.3 12th
Total 0.6 3.9 10.7 19.6 23.3 20.2 13.4 5.9 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0% 0.0
11-5 0.1% 0.1
10-6 0.4% 0.4
9-7 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.9
8-8 5.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.9
7-9 13.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.3
6-10 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.2
5-11 23.3% 23.3
4-12 19.6% 19.6
3-13 10.7% 10.7
2-14 3.9% 3.9
1-15 0.6% 0.6
0-16
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%