Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#192
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#162
Pace61.4#339
Improvement+2.0#84

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#111
First Shot+3.7#71
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#293
Layup/Dunks+3.0#73
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#92
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#187
Freethrows-0.6#232
Improvement+0.6#143

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#286
First Shot-3.6#292
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#161
Layups/Dunks+0.1#180
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#202
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#331
Freethrows+0.7#136
Improvement+1.4#94
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 52.5% 61.3% 31.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.6% 97.4% 87.7%
Conference Champion 12.5% 15.7% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Home) - 71.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 6
Quad 20 - 00 - 6
Quad 32 - 32 - 9
Quad 410 - 313 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 4   @ Purdue L 67-96 3%     0 - 1 -7.3 +4.3 -12.9
  Nov 13, 2021 51   @ Murray St. L 59-78 11%     0 - 2 -7.2 -5.8 -2.3
  Nov 17, 2021 38   @ St. Mary's L 64-73 9%     0 - 3 +4.2 +4.0 -0.1
  Nov 19, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 50-92 2%     0 - 4 -16.9 -12.7 -5.2
  Nov 22, 2021 12   UCLA L 62-75 6%     0 - 5 +3.7 -3.1 +6.8
  Nov 23, 2021 333   Central Michigan W 76-69 83%     1 - 5 -4.4 +0.0 -3.9
  Nov 30, 2021 43   @ West Virginia L 55-74 10%     1 - 6 -6.1 -5.3 -2.4
  Dec 15, 2021 234   @ South Dakota L 64-78 50%     1 - 7 -15.5 -7.1 -9.3
  Dec 18, 2021 163   @ Miami (OH) W 77-68 35%     2 - 7 +11.6 +18.1 -4.7
  Dec 21, 2021 131   Loyola Marymount L 57-71 45%     2 - 8 -14.2 -7.7 -8.5
  Jan 08, 2022 216   Eastern Kentucky W 66-61 64%     3 - 8 1 - 0 +0.0 -2.9 +3.4
  Jan 11, 2022 329   Central Arkansas W 85-63 87%     4 - 8 2 - 0 +8.4 +5.7 +3.5
  Jan 15, 2022 280   @ Lipscomb W 77-71 62%     5 - 8 3 - 0 +1.6 +2.5 -0.6
  Jan 18, 2022 298   North Alabama W 68-60 81%     6 - 8 4 - 0 -2.5 +2.8 -4.2
  Jan 22, 2022 238   Jacksonville W 64-59 71%    
  Jan 27, 2022 293   @ Stetson W 68-64 63%    
  Jan 29, 2022 221   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 03, 2022 104   Liberty L 64-67 39%    
  Feb 05, 2022 214   Kennesaw St. W 71-67 65%    
  Feb 09, 2022 313   @ North Florida W 71-66 65%    
  Feb 12, 2022 298   @ North Alabama W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 16, 2022 329   @ Central Arkansas W 78-71 74%    
  Feb 19, 2022 136   Jacksonville St. L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 23, 2022 280   Lipscomb W 78-70 78%    
  Feb 26, 2022 216   @ Eastern Kentucky L 73-74 43%    
Projected Record 13 - 12 11 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.5 3.4 0.8 12.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 6.2 9.7 4.4 0.5 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 8.0 11.2 4.3 0.3 25.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 6.5 9.0 3.1 0.2 19.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.3 5.3 1.6 0.1 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 3.1 1.0 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.7 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.9 8.1 14.2 19.8 20.9 16.7 10.1 3.9 0.8 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.1
14-2 87.7% 3.4    2.3 1.1 0.0
13-3 54.2% 5.5    2.0 2.7 0.8 0.1
12-4 15.1% 2.5    0.4 1.2 0.8 0.1
11-5 1.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 12.5% 12.5 5.4 5.1 1.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.8% 0.8
14-2 3.9% 3.9
13-3 10.1% 10.1
12-4 16.7% 16.7
11-5 20.9% 20.9
10-6 19.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.7
9-7 14.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.2
8-8 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.1
7-9 3.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.8
6-10 1.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.2
5-11 0.2% 0.2
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8%