Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.1#329
Expected Predictive Rating-6.1#268
Pace76.3#29
Improvement+4.5#21

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#253
First Shot-1.1#222
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#294
Layup/Dunks+1.9#107
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#146
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#233
Freethrows-2.0#310
Improvement+4.3#12

Defense
Total Defense-8.4#350
First Shot-7.3#348
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#279
Layups/Dunks-8.1#355
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#74
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#160
Freethrows-1.1#271
Improvement+0.2#175
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 13.4% 34.5% 10.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.3% 3.1% 12.3%
First Four0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Liberty (Home) - 11.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 45 - 87 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 71   @ Saint Louis L 61-96 3%     0 - 1 -24.8 -12.6 -8.9
  Nov 12, 2021 118   @ Butler L 53-85 6%     0 - 2 -26.0 -11.5 -16.4
  Nov 17, 2021 5   @ Baylor L 47-92 1%     0 - 3 -23.6 -24.4 +8.2
  Nov 20, 2021 120   Oral Roberts W 70-67 14%     1 - 3 +3.7 -7.8 +11.4
  Nov 24, 2021 281   @ New Orleans L 63-90 26%     1 - 4 -31.4 -18.3 -10.3
  Nov 25, 2021 197   VMI L 67-73 18%     1 - 5 -7.5 -10.4 +2.8
  Nov 26, 2021 299   Presbyterian L 66-75 38%     1 - 6 -17.0 -3.8 -14.0
  Dec 01, 2021 31   @ Arkansas L 60-97 2%     1 - 7 -22.6 -15.3 -1.4
  Dec 04, 2021 194   @ Arkansas St. L 82-95 13%     1 - 8 -11.9 +6.8 -18.4
  Dec 18, 2021 77   @ Missouri St. L 70-106 4%     1 - 9 -26.2 +0.4 -27.0
  Dec 29, 2021 60   @ Texas A&M L 59-85 3%     1 - 10 -15.0 -5.9 -9.5
  Jan 04, 2022 216   @ Eastern Kentucky W 79-72 15%     2 - 10 1 - 0 +7.0 +1.7 +4.9
  Jan 09, 2022 280   Lipscomb W 93-88 43%     3 - 10 2 - 0 -4.4 +6.5 -11.2
  Jan 11, 2022 192   @ Bellarmine L 63-85 13%     3 - 11 2 - 1 -20.9 -9.7 -12.0
  Jan 15, 2022 298   North Alabama W 89-88 OT 48%     4 - 11 3 - 1 -9.5 -4.3 -5.4
  Jan 18, 2022 136   Jacksonville St. L 81-86 16%     4 - 12 3 - 2 -5.7 +4.1 -9.6
  Jan 22, 2022 104   Liberty L 66-79 12%    
  Jan 27, 2022 313   @ North Florida L 74-79 31%    
  Jan 29, 2022 238   @ Jacksonville L 64-73 17%    
  Feb 03, 2022 221   Florida Gulf Coast L 78-84 31%    
  Feb 05, 2022 293   Stetson L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 09, 2022 214   @ Kennesaw St. L 72-83 14%    
  Feb 12, 2022 136   @ Jacksonville St. L 67-82 7%    
  Feb 16, 2022 192   Bellarmine L 71-78 26%    
  Feb 19, 2022 216   Eastern Kentucky L 80-86 31%    
  Feb 23, 2022 298   @ North Alabama L 72-78 29%    
  Feb 26, 2022 280   @ Lipscomb L 79-86 25%    
Projected Record 7 - 20 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.8 1.7 0.1 5.3 5th
6th 0.6 4.7 3.7 0.5 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.4 5.3 7.4 1.4 0.0 14.6 7th
8th 0.1 4.3 11.1 3.1 0.1 18.7 8th
9th 0.0 2.3 10.8 4.9 0.3 18.2 9th
10th 0.6 7.6 7.2 0.8 0.0 16.2 10th
11th 3.2 6.5 1.2 0.0 10.8 11th
12th 2.4 1.1 0.0 3.5 12th
Total 6.2 17.5 23.9 22.7 16.2 8.4 3.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 26.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-5 3.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.1% 0.1
11-5 0.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-6 1.0% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.0
9-7 3.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 3.5
8-8 8.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 8.4
7-9 16.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 16.2
6-10 22.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 22.7
5-11 23.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 23.9
4-12 17.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.5
3-13 6.2% 6.2
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.2%