Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#221
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#190
Pace74.3#60
Improvement-4.1#338

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#171
First Shot+0.7#153
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#224
Layup/Dunks-1.8#248
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#351
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#15
Freethrows+0.2#161
Improvement-1.2#258

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#270
First Shot-4.7#321
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#54
Layups/Dunks-2.6#275
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#175
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#305
Freethrows+0.7#138
Improvement-2.8#326
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.4% 9.1% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 86.4% 95.9% 83.6%
.500 or above in Conference 66.0% 84.7% 60.5%
Conference Champion 0.8% 2.8% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.2% 1.3%
First Four1.2% 1.0% 1.3%
First Round5.8% 8.6% 5.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Away) - 22.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 415 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 28   @ Loyola Chicago L 77-89 6%     0 - 1 +2.8 +9.6 -6.5
  Nov 16, 2021 26   USC L 61-78 12%     0 - 2 -6.9 -5.5 -1.8
  Nov 23, 2021 89   Rhode Island W 67-66 26%     1 - 2 +4.9 +4.2 +0.9
  Nov 26, 2021 315   Western Michigan W 77-67 80%     2 - 2 -1.8 -2.9 +1.2
  Nov 27, 2021 304   SE Louisiana W 90-71 78%     3 - 2 +8.2 +2.3 +4.2
  Nov 28, 2021 261   Purdue Fort Wayne W 85-78 69%     4 - 2 -0.8 +5.0 -6.1
  Dec 01, 2021 252   @ Florida International L 61-77 48%     4 - 3 -18.4 -12.4 -5.6
  Dec 04, 2021 243   Dartmouth W 78-68 OT 66%     5 - 3 +3.0 -7.2 +8.8
  Dec 07, 2021 320   @ Florida A&M W 69-55 68%     6 - 3 +6.4 -5.3 +11.8
  Dec 11, 2021 306   @ Robert Morris W 85-74 61%     7 - 3 +5.2 +6.7 -1.6
  Dec 19, 2021 196   Mercer W 67-55 55%     8 - 3 +8.0 -4.0 +13.0
  Dec 22, 2021 286   @ Canisius L 90-97 OT 57%     8 - 4 -11.7 +0.1 -10.6
  Jan 05, 2022 313   North Florida W 74-67 79%     9 - 4 1 - 0 -4.2 -0.5 -3.3
  Jan 08, 2022 238   @ Jacksonville L 66-69 45%     9 - 5 1 - 1 -4.6 +2.4 -7.3
  Jan 13, 2022 214   @ Kennesaw St. L 53-77 39%     9 - 6 1 - 2 -23.9 -17.8 -7.0
  Jan 15, 2022 104   Liberty L 75-78 32%     9 - 7 1 - 3 -1.0 +3.2 -4.2
  Jan 18, 2022 293   @ Stetson W 93-91 OT 59%     10 - 7 2 - 3 -3.3 +5.8 -9.4
  Jan 22, 2022 136   @ Jacksonville St. L 69-76 23%    
  Jan 27, 2022 216   Eastern Kentucky W 81-79 60%    
  Jan 29, 2022 192   Bellarmine W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 03, 2022 329   @ Central Arkansas W 84-78 69%    
  Feb 05, 2022 280   @ Lipscomb W 81-79 54%    
  Feb 09, 2022 298   North Alabama W 76-68 78%    
  Feb 12, 2022 293   Stetson W 74-67 77%    
  Feb 16, 2022 214   Kennesaw St. W 76-74 60%    
  Feb 19, 2022 313   @ North Florida W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 23, 2022 104   @ Liberty L 65-75 17%    
  Feb 26, 2022 238   Jacksonville W 68-64 66%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.2 0.1 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.7 3.3 0.3 9.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 6.9 6.9 1.1 0.0 16.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 8.3 9.7 2.4 0.1 21.8 5th
6th 0.6 6.8 9.7 2.8 0.1 19.9 6th
7th 0.1 3.3 7.1 2.4 0.1 13.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.8 1.8 0.1 7.6 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 1.6 0.1 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.2 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.6 10.5 17.0 21.9 20.7 14.6 6.6 1.9 0.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 63.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-4 24.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-5 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.3% 19.5% 19.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-4 1.9% 21.5% 21.5% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.5
11-5 6.6% 13.5% 13.5% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 5.7
10-6 14.6% 9.4% 9.4% 15.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 13.2
9-7 20.7% 7.1% 7.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 19.3
8-8 21.9% 5.3% 5.3% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 20.7
7-9 17.0% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.1 0.5 16.4
6-10 10.5% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.3 10.2
5-11 4.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.5
4-12 1.6% 1.6
3-13 0.3% 0.3
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 3.2 93.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.3 11.5 42.3 46.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%