Liberty
Atlantic Sun
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.5#104
Expected Predictive Rating+2.6#132
Pace61.2#342
Improvement+4.4#22

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#99
First Shot+4.5#51
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#287
Layup/Dunks-0.5#180
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#337
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.2#5
Freethrows+0.3#157
Improvement+4.9#7

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#123
First Shot+0.3#167
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#72
Layups/Dunks+3.3#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#217
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#236
Freethrows-1.1#272
Improvement-0.4#203
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.8% 46.1% 39.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 68.8% 78.3% 51.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round43.8% 46.1% 39.7%
Second Round6.1% 6.9% 4.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.7% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Away) - 64.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 37 - 37 - 7
Quad 414 - 221 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2021 13   @ LSU L 58-74 9%     0 - 1 +3.1 -1.2 +4.5
  Nov 19, 2021 90   Iona L 50-54 43%     0 - 2 +2.4 -12.3 +14.1
  Nov 20, 2021 267   Manhattan L 60-76 83%     0 - 3 -21.7 -10.1 -13.2
  Nov 23, 2021 348   Bethune-Cookman W 59-51 95%     1 - 3 -6.0 -7.2 +2.7
  Nov 27, 2021 342   Maryland Eastern Shore W 73-61 95%     2 - 3 -2.9 +0.7 -2.7
  Dec 02, 2021 126   Missouri W 66-45 67%     3 - 3 +21.1 +2.8 +21.1
  Dec 06, 2021 358   Delaware St. W 96-60 99%     4 - 3 +11.2 +20.6 -5.6
  Dec 11, 2021 162   Stephen F. Austin L 51-63 66%     4 - 4 -11.8 -14.4 +1.1
  Dec 17, 2021 153   East Carolina W 74-64 65%     5 - 4 +10.5 -0.7 +11.1
  Dec 22, 2021 101   Northern Iowa W 76-74 48%     6 - 4 +7.0 +7.7 -0.6
  Dec 23, 2021 76   Stanford L 76-79 39%     6 - 5 +4.4 +3.0 +1.7
  Dec 25, 2021 29   BYU L 75-80 23%     6 - 6 +7.2 +11.7 -4.7
  Jan 04, 2022 293   @ Stetson W 75-59 82%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +10.7 +9.0 +3.6
  Jan 11, 2022 313   North Florida W 71-56 92%     8 - 6 2 - 0 +3.8 -7.6 +11.3
  Jan 15, 2022 221   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 78-75 68%     9 - 6 3 - 0 +2.7 +4.1 -1.4
  Jan 18, 2022 238   Jacksonville W 88-49 85%     10 - 6 4 - 0 +32.3 +32.1 +7.4
  Jan 20, 2022 214   @ Kennesaw St. W 69-65 64%    
  Jan 22, 2022 329   @ Central Arkansas W 79-66 88%    
  Jan 27, 2022 298   North Alabama W 72-57 92%    
  Jan 29, 2022 136   Jacksonville St. W 68-63 69%    
  Feb 03, 2022 192   @ Bellarmine W 67-64 61%    
  Feb 05, 2022 216   @ Eastern Kentucky W 74-69 64%    
  Feb 08, 2022 280   Lipscomb W 79-65 91%    
  Feb 12, 2022 238   @ Jacksonville W 63-57 70%    
  Feb 15, 2022 313   @ North Florida W 72-61 83%    
  Feb 19, 2022 293   Stetson W 71-56 92%    
  Feb 23, 2022 221   Florida Gulf Coast W 75-65 83%    
  Feb 26, 2022 214   @ Kennesaw St. W 69-65 64%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 5.6 17.1 23.2 16.3 6.0 68.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.6 8.4 5.6 0.9 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 3.8 2.1 0.2 7.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.9 0.1 3.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.8 8.9 16.2 22.8 24.1 16.3 6.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 6.0    6.0
15-1 100.0% 16.3    16.0 0.3
14-2 96.2% 23.2    19.1 4.0 0.1
13-3 74.7% 17.1    9.1 6.8 1.2 0.1
12-4 34.8% 5.6    1.6 2.6 1.2 0.2
11-5 5.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 68.8% 68.8 51.9 13.8 2.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 6.0% 57.7% 57.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.7 0.3 2.6
15-1 16.3% 56.2% 56.2% 13.4 0.0 0.6 4.5 3.8 0.3 0.0 7.1
14-2 24.1% 47.3% 47.3% 13.8 0.1 3.3 6.5 1.6 0.0 12.7
13-3 22.8% 43.0% 43.0% 14.2 0.0 1.3 5.3 3.1 0.1 13.0
12-4 16.2% 36.8% 36.8% 14.5 0.0 0.2 2.7 2.8 0.3 10.2
11-5 8.9% 29.8% 29.8% 14.9 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.4 6.2
10-6 3.8% 26.2% 26.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 2.8
9-7 1.5% 21.8% 21.8% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1
8-8 0.3% 9.4% 9.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3
7-9 0.1% 32.4% 32.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0
6-10 0.0% 0.0
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 43.8% 43.8% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.9 11.1 19.3 10.0 1.3 56.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.5% 100.0% 12.6 0.3 0.2 6.0 36.1 49.7 7.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%