Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#280
Expected Predictive Rating-7.9#290
Pace72.7#74
Improvement-4.0#336

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#167
First Shot+4.7#44
After Offensive Rebound-4.4#357
Layup/Dunks+4.0#45
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#136
Freethrows+1.5#79
Improvement-0.3#193

Defense
Total Defense-7.2#342
First Shot-7.6#352
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#146
Layups/Dunks-0.4#197
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#265
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.9#356
Freethrows+1.7#71
Improvement-3.7#345
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 1.7% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.7% 1.5% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 13.1% 22.2% 6.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.9% 8.0% 22.2%
First Four1.2% 1.4% 0.9%
First Round0.6% 1.0% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Home) - 44.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 21 - 6
Quad 31 - 62 - 11
Quad 48 - 810 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 203   @ College of Charleston L 77-86 23%     0 - 1 -8.3 -6.9 +0.0
  Nov 13, 2021 346   South Carolina St. W 93-81 73%     1 - 1 -1.4 +11.0 -12.9
  Nov 14, 2021 259   Loyola Maryland W 70-65 43%     2 - 1 -0.1 -7.3 +6.9
  Nov 17, 2021 72   @ Dayton W 78-59 7%     3 - 1 +29.0 +16.6 +13.8
  Nov 23, 2021 290   @ Tennessee Tech L 77-88 43%     3 - 2 -16.1 +2.1 -18.2
  Dec 02, 2021 62   @ Belmont L 65-94 6%     3 - 3 -18.2 -5.6 -11.7
  Dec 05, 2021 100   Chattanooga L 64-85 18%     3 - 4 -18.2 -6.4 -13.0
  Dec 08, 2021 58   @ Miami (FL) L 59-76 6%     3 - 5 -5.9 -13.9 +8.5
  Dec 12, 2021 308   Tennessee St. L 65-73 65%     3 - 6 -18.9 -18.9 +0.5
  Dec 15, 2021 42   @ Florida St. L 60-97 4%     3 - 7 -24.1 -10.8 -10.1
  Dec 22, 2021 13   @ LSU L 60-95 2%     3 - 8 -15.9 -4.6 -7.7
  Dec 30, 2021 334   Alabama A&M W 66-63 75%     4 - 8 -10.9 -5.0 -5.7
  Jan 04, 2022 298   North Alabama W 84-74 64%     5 - 8 1 - 0 -0.5 +8.2 -8.9
  Jan 09, 2022 329   @ Central Arkansas L 88-93 57%     5 - 9 1 - 1 -13.6 +3.1 -16.5
  Jan 11, 2022 136   @ Jacksonville St. L 83-88 15%     5 - 10 1 - 2 -0.7 +9.8 -10.4
  Jan 15, 2022 192   Bellarmine L 71-77 38%     5 - 11 1 - 3 -9.9 -2.6 -7.6
  Jan 18, 2022 216   @ Eastern Kentucky L 72-86 25%     5 - 12 1 - 4 -14.0 -0.8 -13.3
  Jan 22, 2022 214   Kennesaw St. L 76-78 44%    
  Jan 27, 2022 238   @ Jacksonville L 65-70 29%    
  Jan 29, 2022 313   @ North Florida L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 03, 2022 293   Stetson W 74-71 64%    
  Feb 05, 2022 221   Florida Gulf Coast L 79-81 46%    
  Feb 08, 2022 104   @ Liberty L 65-79 9%    
  Feb 12, 2022 216   Eastern Kentucky L 81-83 45%    
  Feb 16, 2022 136   Jacksonville St. L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 19, 2022 298   @ North Alabama L 73-74 43%    
  Feb 23, 2022 192   @ Bellarmine L 70-78 22%    
  Feb 26, 2022 329   Central Arkansas W 86-79 75%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.7 0.1 5.2 5th
6th 0.6 4.5 3.6 0.4 9.0 6th
7th 0.4 5.2 7.2 1.4 0.0 14.2 7th
8th 0.1 3.9 9.9 2.7 0.1 16.8 8th
9th 0.0 2.1 9.8 4.6 0.2 16.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 7.3 6.4 0.6 15.3 10th
11th 0.6 4.8 6.0 1.1 0.0 12.5 11th
12th 0.5 2.3 3.2 1.1 0.0 7.1 12th
Total 0.5 3.0 8.9 16.5 21.7 21.0 15.3 8.4 3.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 60.0% 0.0    0.0
11-5 10.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0% 0.0
11-5 0.2% 27.1% 27.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-6 0.9% 4.1% 4.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
9-7 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.6
8-8 8.4% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.3 8.0
7-9 15.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 15.0
6-10 21.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 20.7
5-11 21.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 21.6
4-12 16.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.5
3-13 8.9% 8.9
2-14 3.0% 3.0
1-15 0.5% 0.5
0-16
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%