North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.7#313
Expected Predictive Rating-16.0#345
Pace69.0#172
Improvement+1.2#118

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#288
First Shot-3.2#276
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#262
Layup/Dunks-2.4#275
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#92
Freethrows-0.8#246
Improvement-2.1#297

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#305
First Shot-1.6#232
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#346
Layups/Dunks-5.4#338
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#160
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#59
Freethrows+0.3#170
Improvement+3.3#21
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.2% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.4% 4.0% 1.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 57.3% 45.7% 57.5%
First Four0.5% 1.2% 0.4%
First Round0.2% 0.9% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Away) - 1.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 6
Quad 20 - 30 - 9
Quad 31 - 61 - 15
Quad 44 - 75 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 14   @ Texas Tech L 74-89 2%     0 - 1 +2.9 +11.0 -7.7
  Nov 10, 2021 60   @ Texas A&M L 46-64 4%     0 - 2 -7.0 -20.2 +13.3
  Nov 12, 2021 96   @ Grand Canyon L 51-65 7%     0 - 3 -5.6 -10.9 +3.4
  Nov 15, 2021 119   @ Arizona St. L 63-72 9%     0 - 4 -3.1 -1.3 -2.2
  Nov 17, 2021 12   @ UCLA L 63-98 1%     0 - 5 -15.8 -3.7 -10.5
  Nov 26, 2021 3   @ Kentucky L 52-86 1%     0 - 6 -12.3 -17.2 +8.7
  Nov 28, 2021 252   @ Florida International L 69-84 27%     0 - 7 -17.4 +0.2 -18.2
  Dec 05, 2021 151   @ Florida Atlantic L 41-76 13%     0 - 8 -31.8 -30.2 -3.0
  Dec 08, 2021 35   @ Florida L 55-85 3%     0 - 9 -16.0 -17.0 +4.0
  Dec 11, 2021 314   Austin Peay W 91-84 60%     1 - 9 -4.2 +13.3 -17.4
  Jan 05, 2022 221   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 67-74 21%     1 - 10 0 - 1 -7.3 -4.0 -3.7
  Jan 08, 2022 293   Stetson L 66-68 OT 56%     1 - 11 0 - 2 -12.3 -10.6 -1.8
  Jan 11, 2022 104   @ Liberty L 56-71 8%     1 - 12 0 - 3 -8.0 -14.1 +6.1
  Jan 15, 2022 238   Jacksonville L 51-54 42%     1 - 13 0 - 4 -9.7 -11.7 +1.5
  Jan 17, 2022 214   Kennesaw St. L 60-62 36%     1 - 14 0 - 5 -6.9 -12.2 +5.2
  Jan 20, 2022 42   @ Florida St. L 59-81 2%    
  Jan 22, 2022 216   @ Eastern Kentucky L 71-80 19%    
  Jan 27, 2022 329   Central Arkansas W 79-74 69%    
  Jan 29, 2022 280   Lipscomb W 76-75 55%    
  Feb 03, 2022 136   @ Jacksonville St. L 62-75 10%    
  Feb 05, 2022 298   @ North Alabama L 67-70 37%    
  Feb 09, 2022 192   Bellarmine L 66-71 35%    
  Feb 12, 2022 214   @ Kennesaw St. L 67-76 20%    
  Feb 15, 2022 104   Liberty L 61-72 17%    
  Feb 19, 2022 221   Florida Gulf Coast L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 23, 2022 238   @ Jacksonville L 59-66 24%    
  Feb 26, 2022 293   @ Stetson L 66-69 36%    
Projected Record 5 - 22 4 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.3 2.1 1.6 0.1 4.0 7th
8th 0.1 2.5 4.1 0.6 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.9 6.3 2.0 0.0 10.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 8.1 4.9 0.2 14.6 10th
11th 0.0 1.8 9.7 9.2 1.3 0.0 22.0 11th
12th 1.6 8.2 14.9 11.7 2.5 0.1 39.0 12th
Total 1.6 8.2 16.7 22.8 21.7 15.2 8.8 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0% 0.0
9-7 0.2% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
8-8 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.1
7-9 3.6% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 3.4
6-10 8.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 8.6
5-11 15.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 15.1
4-12 21.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 21.7
3-13 22.8% 22.8
2-14 16.7% 16.7
1-15 8.2% 8.2
0-16 1.6% 1.6
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%