Jacksonville St.
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#136
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#149
Pace64.8#297
Improvement-0.6#200

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#138
First Shot+0.9#149
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#143
Layup/Dunks-2.1#263
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#25
Freethrows-0.5#214
Improvement+0.7#136

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#157
First Shot+1.1#142
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#233
Layups/Dunks+0.9#145
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#184
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#217
Freethrows+1.0#102
Improvement-1.3#250
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.2% 26.4% 21.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 98.6% 99.4% 95.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.8% 97.7%
Conference Champion 27.2% 31.3% 13.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 0.7% 1.7%
First Round24.9% 26.1% 20.9%
Second Round1.9% 2.1% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Home) - 77.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 7
Quad 415 - 318 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 87   @ Wichita St. L 57-60 24%     0 - 1 +6.1 -1.6 +7.3
  Nov 13, 2021 334   Alabama A&M W 70-47 92%     1 - 1 +9.1 -0.4 +11.0
  Nov 16, 2021 189   @ Troy L 65-69 3OT 52%     1 - 2 -2.8 -19.5 +17.7
  Nov 22, 2021 186   Valparaiso L 70-78 60%     1 - 3 -8.9 -3.4 -5.6
  Nov 24, 2021 158   Drexel W 72-64 56%     2 - 3 +8.3 +2.6 +6.3
  Nov 27, 2021 232   @ Elon W 93-81 62%     3 - 3 +10.7 +17.9 -7.3
  Dec 04, 2021 149   South Alabama L 64-74 63%     3 - 4 -11.7 -8.1 -3.8
  Dec 08, 2021 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 52-66 22%     3 - 5 -4.1 -7.1 +2.5
  Dec 15, 2021 252   Florida International W 66-59 81%     4 - 5 -0.4 -1.1 +1.5
  Dec 18, 2021 16   @ Alabama L 59-65 8%     4 - 6 +11.0 -1.8 +12.3
  Dec 21, 2021 292   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 87-67 75%     5 - 6 +14.7 +18.7 -2.3
  Jan 08, 2022 298   @ North Alabama W 65-55 76%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +4.5 -9.7 +13.8
  Jan 11, 2022 280   Lipscomb W 88-83 85%     7 - 6 2 - 0 -4.4 +4.5 -9.1
  Jan 15, 2022 216   @ Eastern Kentucky W 76-65 57%     8 - 6 3 - 0 +11.0 +4.1 +7.1
  Jan 18, 2022 329   @ Central Arkansas W 86-81 84%     9 - 6 4 - 0 -3.6 +2.5 -6.3
  Jan 22, 2022 221   Florida Gulf Coast W 76-69 77%    
  Jan 27, 2022 214   @ Kennesaw St. W 70-68 54%    
  Jan 29, 2022 104   @ Liberty L 63-68 31%    
  Feb 03, 2022 313   North Florida W 75-62 90%    
  Feb 05, 2022 238   Jacksonville W 65-57 80%    
  Feb 09, 2022 293   @ Stetson W 69-62 73%    
  Feb 12, 2022 329   Central Arkansas W 82-67 93%    
  Feb 16, 2022 280   @ Lipscomb W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 19, 2022 192   @ Bellarmine W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 23, 2022 216   Eastern Kentucky W 77-70 75%    
  Feb 26, 2022 298   North Alabama W 72-60 88%    
Projected Record 17 - 9 12 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 4.2 10.3 9.5 2.7 27.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 8.1 15.8 10.6 2.0 37.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 5.2 9.2 4.5 0.4 19.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.6 2.0 0.2 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.9 0.1 3.7 5th
6th 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 5.5 11.9 19.9 24.6 21.4 11.5 2.7 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 2.7    2.5 0.2
14-2 82.2% 9.5    6.5 2.9 0.1
13-3 48.3% 10.3    4.4 4.9 1.0 0.1
12-4 17.0% 4.2    0.9 2.0 1.1 0.2
11-5 2.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 27.2% 27.2 14.3 10.1 2.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 2.7% 42.5% 42.5% 13.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5
14-2 11.5% 35.8% 35.8% 14.0 0.0 0.9 2.4 0.8 0.0 7.4
13-3 21.4% 31.6% 31.6% 14.4 0.0 0.4 3.2 2.9 0.2 14.6
12-4 24.6% 24.8% 24.8% 14.9 0.0 0.0 1.4 3.8 0.9 18.5
11-5 19.9% 21.4% 21.4% 15.2 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.4 15.7
10-6 11.9% 16.5% 16.5% 15.5 0.1 0.9 1.0 9.9
9-7 5.5% 11.2% 11.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 4.9
8-8 1.8% 10.5% 10.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.6
7-9 0.6% 14.2% 14.2% 16.0 0.1 0.5
6-10 0.1% 0.1
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 25.2% 25.2% 0.0% 14.7 0.2 2.0 7.9 10.9 4.3 74.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 13.1 16.0 57.1 26.7 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%