Horizon
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
105 Oakland 44.7%   13   12 - 4 7 - 0 22 - 7 17 - 3 +4.5      +2.3 106 +2.2 105 71.4 102 +10.7 52 +11.8 1
156 Cleveland St. 19.9%   9 - 4 7 - 1 18 - 8 16 - 5 +0.4      +1.3 140 -0.9 197 67.5 214 +3.0 124 +5.8 2
199 Detroit Mercy 9.5%   5 - 9 3 - 2 13 - 14 11 - 7 -1.6      +0.9 154 -2.5 249 67.3 220 -4.5 249 -1.9 4
206 Wright St. 10.2%   8 - 8 6 - 2 16 - 14 14 - 8 -2.0      +1.8 122 -3.8 295 75.0 49 -3.6 235 +0.6 3
250 Youngstown St. 4.1%   8 - 8 4 - 4 15 - 14 11 - 10 -4.7      -0.9 200 -3.8 297 67.4 218 -4.9 256 -4.4 7
257 Illinois-Chicago 3.3%   6 - 8 3 - 3 13 - 14 10 - 9 -5.0      -2.1 232 -2.9 266 68.6 178 -3.3 227 -4.1 6
261 Purdue Fort Wayne 3.3%   7 - 8 4 - 4 14 - 14 11 - 10 -5.3      -2.1 233 -3.2 275 69.8 147 -4.5 248 -2.1 5
264 Northern Kentucky 2.3%   4 - 9 2 - 4 10 - 17 8 - 12 -5.5      -2.4 240 -3.1 273 63.2 317 -8.5 296 -9.0 9
269 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 2.7%   5 - 12 4 - 5 11 - 19 10 - 12 -5.8      -3.3 265 -2.5 248 67.9 199 -9.3 306 -6.7 8
306 Robert Morris 0.4%   2 - 14 1 - 7 7 - 22 6 - 15 -8.3      -2.4 244 -5.9 331 69.5 154 -14.1 337 -15.7 11
321 Green Bay 0.2%   2 - 13 2 - 5 6 - 22 6 - 14 -10.2      -3.8 279 -6.4 335 62.1 329 -15.9 344 -14.2 10
355 IUPUI 0.0%   0 - 15 0 - 6 2 - 26 2 - 17 -17.5      -10.9 357 -6.6 338 59.5 347 -24.3 358 -19.6 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Oakland 1.3 76.0 18.5 4.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cleveland St. 2.0 29.5 48.7 16.6 3.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit Mercy 5.5 0.2 2.5 11.8 21.8 19.2 15.9 12.2 8.8 5.2 1.9 0.4
Wright St. 3.0 10.9 25.1 40.4 12.5 5.9 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
Youngstown St. 5.3 0.3 3.1 12.4 23.1 20.2 15.8 12.0 7.9 3.8 1.2 0.3 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 6.5 0.0 0.7 4.5 12.5 15.0 16.5 17.1 16.1 10.4 5.5 1.6 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 5.6 0.2 2.1 9.7 19.9 19.2 16.5 13.8 10.7 5.4 2.2 0.4 0.0
Northern Kentucky 7.9 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.9 7.6 10.1 13.5 17.7 22.7 14.2 6.9 0.2
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 6.2 0.1 1.8 6.1 14.2 16.5 16.4 16.5 14.6 9.3 3.6 1.0 0.0
Robert Morris 9.6 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.4 9.7 18.5 32.9 26.7 2.1
Green Bay 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.9 7.2 15.2 29.4 38.2 2.5
IUPUI 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.0 9.2 88.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
Oakland 17 - 5 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.0 6.7 13.4 21.2 25.2 20.4 8.6
Cleveland St. 16 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.9 6.2 11.6 18.1 21.5 19.2 13.0 5.4 1.0
Detroit Mercy 11 - 11 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.3 7.4 12.5 17.6 19.1 18.0 12.3 6.1 1.9 0.3
Wright St. 14 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 6.5 11.3 16.0 18.8 17.5 13.6 7.9 3.5 0.9 0.1
Youngstown St. 11 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 6.1 11.5 18.0 20.6 18.1 12.5 7.0 2.6 0.6 0.1
Illinois-Chicago 10 - 12 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.7 8.0 14.0 18.5 19.7 16.5 11.3 5.1 1.6 0.3 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 11 - 11 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.8 8.9 13.8 18.7 19.5 16.5 10.4 5.0 1.7 0.3 0.0
Northern Kentucky 8 - 14 0.1 0.7 2.5 6.3 11.2 16.0 18.2 16.8 13.2 8.5 4.4 1.6 0.4 0.1
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 10 - 12 0.1 0.7 2.6 7.0 12.3 17.3 19.3 17.7 12.0 6.8 3.2 1.1 0.2
Robert Morris 6 - 16 0.1 1.2 4.6 11.0 17.8 21.2 18.8 13.4 7.3 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.1
Green Bay 6 - 16 1.8 7.6 15.2 20.2 20.6 16.1 9.6 5.4 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
IUPUI 2 - 20 16.8 30.1 26.1 16.2 7.4 2.5 0.6 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Oakland 76.0% 61.6 13.3 1.1 0.0
Cleveland St. 29.5% 17.0 11.4 1.1 0.0
Detroit Mercy 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Wright St. 10.9% 5.3 4.6 1.0 0.0
Youngstown St. 0.3% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Kentucky 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
Robert Morris
Green Bay
IUPUI


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Oakland 44.7% 44.3% 0.4% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 2.7 13.7 20.3 5.2 0.3 55.3 0.7%
Cleveland St. 19.9% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.9 7.4 7.2 2.1 80.1 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.6 6.4 90.5 0.0%
Wright St. 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 3.1 6.3 89.8 0.0%
Youngstown St. 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 3.7 95.9 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.7 96.7 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.9 96.7 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.1 97.7 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.1 2.6 97.3 0.0%
Robert Morris 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Green Bay 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
IUPUI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Oakland 44.7% 0.3% 44.5% 7.8% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 19.9% 0.4% 19.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 9.5% 3.4% 8.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wright St. 10.2% 3.2% 8.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 4.1% 2.7% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 3.3% 1.6% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 3.3% 2.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 2.3% 1.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 2.7% 2.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IUPUI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.6 0.4
1st Round 91.6% 0.9 8.4 91.4 0.2
2nd Round 9.6% 0.1 90.4 9.6
Sweet Sixteen 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0