Cleveland St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#156
Expected Predictive Rating+3.0#124
Pace67.5#214
Improvement-0.4#195

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#140
First Shot-0.6#198
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#51
Layup/Dunks+4.0#46
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#212
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#327
Freethrows+1.4#82
Improvement+0.1#169

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#197
First Shot-1.8#243
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#101
Layups/Dunks+2.7#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#207
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#319
Freethrows-0.6#238
Improvement-0.5#208
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.9% 20.9% 16.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 99.4% 99.8% 97.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.0%
Conference Champion 29.5% 33.7% 14.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.9%
First Round19.7% 20.8% 15.6%
Second Round1.4% 1.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Home) - 78.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 417 - 319 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 29   @ BYU L 59-69 10%     0 - 1 +4.7 +0.2 +3.5
  Nov 13, 2021 84   Ohio L 56-67 35%     0 - 2 -6.8 -11.5 +4.1
  Nov 20, 2021 286   Canisius W 80-70 83%     1 - 2 +0.3 +2.9 -2.6
  Nov 22, 2021 302   Coppin St. W 65-62 85%     2 - 2 -7.7 -14.1 +6.3
  Dec 02, 2021 264   Northern Kentucky W 72-58 79%     3 - 2 1 - 0 +6.0 +1.6 +5.7
  Dec 04, 2021 206   Wright St. W 85-75 68%     4 - 2 2 - 0 +5.5 +3.7 +1.4
  Dec 13, 2021 46   @ Oklahoma St. L 93-98 OT 13%     4 - 3 +7.5 +13.8 -5.4
  Dec 30, 2021 261   Purdue Fort Wayne W 90-81 78%     5 - 3 3 - 0 +1.2 +10.1 -9.2
  Jan 05, 2022 261   Purdue Fort Wayne W 65-58 78%     6 - 3 4 - 0 -0.8 -11.6 +10.8
  Jan 07, 2022 306   @ Robert Morris W 78-77 73%     7 - 3 5 - 0 -4.8 -0.1 -4.7
  Jan 09, 2022 250   @ Youngstown St. W 86-80 OT 60%     8 - 3 6 - 0 +3.8 +2.3 +1.0
  Jan 13, 2022 105   Oakland L 65-70 44%     8 - 4 6 - 1 -3.0 -5.1 +2.0
  Jan 15, 2022 199   Detroit Mercy W 72-70 67%     9 - 4 7 - 1 -2.1 -3.0 +0.9
  Jan 21, 2022 250   Youngstown St. W 75-67 78%    
  Jan 23, 2022 306   Robert Morris W 78-67 87%    
  Jan 28, 2022 206   @ Wright St. L 76-77 47%    
  Jan 30, 2022 264   @ Northern Kentucky W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 04, 2022 321   Green Bay W 74-61 90%    
  Feb 06, 2022 269   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-65 81%    
  Feb 10, 2022 257   Illinois-Chicago W 75-67 78%    
  Feb 12, 2022 355   IUPUI W 73-53 98%    
  Feb 14, 2022 261   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 18, 2022 269   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 20, 2022 321   @ Green Bay W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 24, 2022 199   @ Detroit Mercy L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 26, 2022 105   @ Oakland L 68-75 26%    
Projected Record 18 - 8 16 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 4.2 8.4 9.6 5.1 1.0 29.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 5.3 12.4 15.7 10.6 3.4 0.2 48.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.5 5.7 4.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 16.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 3.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.9 6.2 11.6 18.1 21.5 19.2 13.0 5.4 1.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 1.0    1.0
19-3 95.9% 5.1    4.3 0.9
18-4 73.9% 9.6    6.2 3.3 0.1
17-5 43.7% 8.4    3.9 4.2 0.3
16-6 19.5% 4.2    1.3 2.4 0.4
15-7 5.8% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-8 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 29.5% 29.5 17.0 11.4 1.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2 1.0% 40.9% 40.9% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6
19-3 5.4% 36.8% 36.8% 13.4 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.1 3.4
18-4 13.0% 29.4% 29.4% 13.8 0.0 1.1 2.2 0.5 9.2
17-5 19.2% 23.1% 23.1% 14.3 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.5 0.1 14.8
16-6 21.5% 19.1% 19.1% 14.6 0.2 1.5 2.2 0.2 17.4
15-7 18.1% 15.8% 15.8% 15.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.6 15.2
14-8 11.6% 11.5% 11.5% 15.3 0.0 0.8 0.5 10.3
13-9 6.2% 10.3% 10.3% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 5.6
12-10 2.9% 7.9% 7.9% 15.8 0.0 0.2 2.6
11-11 0.8% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
10-12 0.2% 4.7% 4.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
9-13 0.0% 0.0
8-14 0.0% 0.0
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 19.9% 19.9% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.3 2.9 7.4 7.2 2.1 80.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.6 4.9 36.1 54.1 4.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%