Oakland
Horizon
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.5#105
Expected Predictive Rating+10.7#52
Pace71.4#102
Improvement-0.7#204

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#106
First Shot+1.9#119
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#140
Layup/Dunks+0.6#150
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#156
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#199
Freethrows+1.6#68
Improvement+3.2#25

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#105
First Shot+4.8#43
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#342
Layups/Dunks+1.4#131
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#113
Freethrows+3.9#1
Improvement-3.9#350
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.7% 46.1% 40.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.5 12.3 13.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 76.0% 80.5% 61.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round44.5% 45.8% 40.3%
Second Round7.8% 8.4% 5.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 1.8% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Away) - 75.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 21 - 02 - 3
Quad 36 - 28 - 5
Quad 416 - 224 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 43   @ West Virginia L 53-60 21%     0 - 1 +5.9 -12.1 +18.0
  Nov 12, 2021 46   @ Oklahoma St. W 56-55 22%     1 - 1 +13.5 -4.6 +18.1
  Nov 17, 2021 88   Toledo W 80-59 52%     2 - 1 +25.0 +5.1 +19.2
  Nov 19, 2021 16   @ Alabama L 59-86 12%     2 - 2 -10.0 -8.5 -1.0
  Nov 22, 2021 79   Vermont W 63-61 40%     3 - 2 +9.2 -4.7 +13.9
  Nov 23, 2021 167   Rice W 76-73 67%     4 - 2 +2.9 +1.1 +1.9
  Nov 24, 2021 146   Delaware W 81-73 63%     5 - 2 +9.0 +5.5 +3.4
  Dec 02, 2021 257   @ Illinois-Chicago W 81-77 75%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +1.5 +1.0 +0.2
  Dec 04, 2021 355   @ IUPUI W 78-45 95%     7 - 2 2 - 0 +18.0 +2.2 +16.8
  Dec 07, 2021 182   @ Bowling Green L 72-73 61%     7 - 3 +0.8 -7.9 +8.7
  Dec 21, 2021 20   Michigan St. L 78-90 20%     7 - 4 +1.3 +17.9 -17.5
  Dec 30, 2021 306   Robert Morris W 79-61 92%     8 - 4 3 - 0 +7.2 -1.7 +8.7
  Jan 01, 2022 250   Youngstown St. W 87-72 86%     9 - 4 4 - 0 +7.8 +10.6 -2.6
  Jan 09, 2022 269   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 86-65 88%     10 - 4 5 - 0 +12.7 +8.3 +4.1
  Jan 13, 2022 156   @ Cleveland St. W 70-65 56%     11 - 4 6 - 0 +7.9 -0.5 +8.6
  Jan 15, 2022 261   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 76-68 76%     12 - 4 7 - 0 +5.2 +4.7 +0.8
  Jan 20, 2022 269   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-66 76%    
  Jan 22, 2022 321   @ Green Bay W 75-63 86%    
  Jan 27, 2022 355   IUPUI W 76-52 99%    
  Jan 29, 2022 257   Illinois-Chicago W 78-66 88%    
  Feb 03, 2022 264   @ Northern Kentucky W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 05, 2022 206   @ Wright St. W 79-75 63%    
  Feb 09, 2022 250   @ Youngstown St. W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 11, 2022 306   @ Robert Morris W 78-68 82%    
  Feb 13, 2022 199   Detroit Mercy W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 18, 2022 206   Wright St. W 82-73 81%    
  Feb 20, 2022 264   Northern Kentucky W 75-62 88%    
  Feb 24, 2022 261   Purdue Fort Wayne W 78-66 87%    
  Feb 26, 2022 156   Cleveland St. W 75-68 74%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 6.3 15.8 23.6 20.3 8.6 76.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.7 6.3 5.3 1.7 0.1 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.0 6.7 13.4 21.2 25.2 20.4 8.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 8.6    8.6
19-3 99.3% 20.3    19.4 0.9
18-4 93.3% 23.6    19.7 3.7 0.1
17-5 74.4% 15.8    10.5 5.0 0.3
16-6 46.8% 6.3    2.9 2.9 0.4
15-7 20.3% 1.4    0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-8 4.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 76.0% 76.0 61.6 13.3 1.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2 8.6% 62.2% 59.0% 3.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.2 0.3 3.3 7.9%
19-3 20.4% 51.9% 51.4% 0.5% 12.2 0.0 0.1 1.1 6.0 3.2 0.1 9.8 1.0%
18-4 25.2% 47.6% 47.5% 0.1% 12.7 0.1 4.4 6.8 0.6 0.0 13.2 0.1%
17-5 21.2% 40.3% 40.3% 13.0 0.0 1.6 5.6 1.3 0.0 12.6
16-6 13.4% 37.7% 37.7% 13.3 0.4 3.0 1.6 0.0 8.3
15-7 6.7% 30.4% 30.4% 13.5 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 4.6
14-8 3.0% 25.6% 25.6% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 2.2
13-9 1.1% 25.4% 25.4% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.8
12-10 0.3% 19.3% 19.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-11 0.1% 0.1
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 44.7% 44.3% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 2.7 13.7 20.3 5.2 0.3 55.3 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.1% 100.0% 10.2 0.1 0.5 2.7 5.8 8.3 15.9 14.4 26.2 21.4 4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4% 10.5% 11.4 0.4 0.3 4.7 4.6 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2% 7.9% 11.9 0.5 1.8 4.0 1.6