Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#250
Expected Predictive Rating-4.9#256
Pace67.4#218
Improvement-3.0#304

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#200
First Shot-0.8#210
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#188
Layup/Dunks-2.7#283
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#123
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#200
Freethrows+1.6#72
Improvement-2.0#291

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#297
First Shot-2.7#268
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#270
Layups/Dunks-1.2#227
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#248
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#200
Freethrows-0.4#220
Improvement-1.0#233
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 5.6% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 63.4% 82.7% 58.0%
.500 or above in Conference 61.5% 81.4% 55.9%
Conference Champion 0.3% 1.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.7% 3.3% 2.6%
First Round2.8% 4.0% 2.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Away) - 21.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 414 - 816 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 56   @ Penn St. L 59-75 8%     0 - 1 -4.6 -1.1 -5.3
  Nov 13, 2021 316   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 97-79 58%     1 - 1 +11.2 +11.3 -1.2
  Nov 19, 2021 288   St. Thomas W 79-75 70%     2 - 1 -6.0 -1.8 -4.1
  Nov 20, 2021 273   SIU Edwardsville L 66-69 66%     2 - 2 -11.9 -9.1 -2.9
  Nov 21, 2021 207   Niagara L 53-58 50%     2 - 3 -9.6 -14.6 +4.3
  Dec 02, 2021 269   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70-68 45%     3 - 3 1 - 0 -1.3 +0.5 -1.7
  Dec 04, 2021 321   @ Green Bay W 82-58 61%     4 - 3 2 - 0 +16.3 +12.4 +6.4
  Dec 08, 2021 333   Central Michigan W 84-77 81%     5 - 3 -6.9 +6.5 -12.9
  Dec 11, 2021 286   Canisius W 71-43 69%     6 - 3 +18.3 -6.1 +24.5
  Dec 22, 2021 43   @ West Virginia L 52-82 6%     6 - 4 -17.1 -12.5 -4.8
  Jan 01, 2022 105   @ Oakland L 72-87 14%     6 - 5 2 - 1 -8.0 +3.9 -12.1
  Jan 05, 2022 306   @ Robert Morris W 64-60 54%     7 - 5 3 - 1 -1.8 -17.2 +15.1
  Jan 07, 2022 261   Purdue Fort Wayne L 61-71 62%     7 - 6 3 - 2 -17.8 -15.5 -2.5
  Jan 09, 2022 156   Cleveland St. L 80-86 OT 40%     7 - 7 3 - 3 -8.1 -2.7 -4.8
  Jan 13, 2022 264   Northern Kentucky L 67-68 63%     7 - 8 3 - 4 -9.0 -4.2 -4.9
  Jan 15, 2022 206   Wright St. W 90-87 49%     8 - 8 4 - 4 -1.5 +11.6 -13.2
  Jan 21, 2022 156   @ Cleveland St. L 67-75 22%    
  Jan 23, 2022 261   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 27, 2022 321   Green Bay W 72-64 79%    
  Jan 29, 2022 269   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 03, 2022 355   @ IUPUI W 69-59 82%    
  Feb 05, 2022 257   @ Illinois-Chicago L 70-72 41%    
  Feb 09, 2022 105   Oakland L 69-76 28%    
  Feb 11, 2022 199   Detroit Mercy L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 13, 2022 306   Robert Morris W 76-70 73%    
  Feb 17, 2022 257   Illinois-Chicago W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 19, 2022 355   IUPUI W 71-56 93%    
  Feb 24, 2022 206   @ Wright St. L 74-79 30%    
  Feb 26, 2022 264   @ Northern Kentucky L 67-69 42%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 11 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 4.7 4.2 1.1 0.1 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 4.6 9.6 6.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 23.1 4th
5th 0.2 3.7 9.6 5.7 0.9 0.0 20.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 7.8 5.2 0.6 0.0 15.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.1 5.2 0.9 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 6.1 11.5 18.0 20.6 18.1 12.5 7.0 2.6 0.6 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 90.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-6 23.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
15-7 4.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 0.1% 6.3% 6.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1
16-6 0.6% 9.5% 9.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
15-7 2.6% 9.6% 9.6% 15.6 0.1 0.2 2.4
14-8 7.0% 8.8% 8.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 6.4
13-9 12.5% 6.4% 6.4% 15.9 0.1 0.7 11.7
12-10 18.1% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8 17.2
11-11 20.6% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 19.7
10-12 18.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.5 17.5
9-13 11.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 11.4
8-14 6.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.0
7-15 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
6-16 0.6% 0.6
5-17 0.1% 0.1
4-18 0.0% 0.0
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.4 3.7 95.9 0.0%