Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#206
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#235
Pace75.0#49
Improvement+2.8#62

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#122
First Shot+3.4#79
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#299
Layup/Dunks+3.1#69
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#58
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#293
Freethrows+1.8#53
Improvement+3.8#14

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#295
First Shot-2.6#261
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#284
Layups/Dunks+0.1#181
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#340
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#223
Freethrows+1.3#88
Improvement-1.0#239
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.2% 10.5% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 71.3% 74.2% 49.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.0% 97.1% 88.1%
Conference Champion 10.9% 11.8% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.2% 3.2% 3.4%
First Round8.7% 9.1% 5.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: IUPUI (Away) - 88.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 32 - 63 - 8
Quad 414 - 717 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 200   @ Marshall L 88-96 39%     0 - 1 -7.1 -4.1 -1.3
  Nov 16, 2021 4   @ Purdue L 52-96 2%     0 - 2 -22.3 -17.3 -2.1
  Nov 22, 2021 271   George Washington L 63-74 65%     0 - 3 -17.1 -10.8 -6.4
  Nov 23, 2021 180   James Madison L 76-78 45%     0 - 4 -2.7 -3.8 +1.2
  Nov 24, 2021 239   Long Beach St. L 76-85 59%     0 - 5 -13.2 -6.4 -5.9
  Dec 02, 2021 261   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 86-73 53%     1 - 5 1 - 0 +10.2 +15.6 -4.7
  Dec 04, 2021 156   @ Cleveland St. L 75-85 32%     1 - 6 1 - 1 -7.1 -0.5 -6.2
  Dec 15, 2021 152   Akron L 48-66 50%     1 - 7 -19.9 -21.1 -1.3
  Dec 18, 2021 290   Tennessee Tech W 72-63 78%     2 - 7 -1.1 -8.2 +6.6
  Dec 21, 2021 97   @ North Carolina St. W 84-70 17%     3 - 7 +22.3 +10.9 +11.1
  Dec 30, 2021 269   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80-75 73%     4 - 7 2 - 1 -3.3 +2.3 -5.7
  Jan 01, 2022 321   Green Bay W 72-69 84%     5 - 7 3 - 1 -9.7 -5.2 -4.3
  Jan 06, 2022 257   Illinois-Chicago W 90-72 70%     6 - 7 4 - 1 +10.5 +20.8 -8.8
  Jan 08, 2022 355   IUPUI W 72-58 94%     7 - 7 5 - 1 -6.0 -6.8 +1.2
  Jan 13, 2022 306   @ Robert Morris W 75-73 64%     8 - 7 6 - 1 -3.8 +3.5 -7.1
  Jan 15, 2022 250   @ Youngstown St. L 87-90 51%     8 - 8 6 - 2 -5.2 +11.1 -16.3
  Jan 20, 2022 355   @ IUPUI W 75-62 88%    
  Jan 22, 2022 257   @ Illinois-Chicago W 77-76 50%    
  Jan 25, 2022 264   @ Northern Kentucky W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 28, 2022 156   Cleveland St. W 77-76 53%    
  Jan 30, 2022 261   Purdue Fort Wayne W 80-74 72%    
  Feb 03, 2022 199   Detroit Mercy W 78-76 60%    
  Feb 05, 2022 105   Oakland L 75-79 37%    
  Feb 09, 2022 321   @ Green Bay W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 11, 2022 269   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 13, 2022 264   Northern Kentucky W 76-70 72%    
  Feb 18, 2022 105   @ Oakland L 73-82 19%    
  Feb 20, 2022 199   @ Detroit Mercy L 75-78 37%    
  Feb 24, 2022 250   Youngstown St. W 79-74 70%    
  Feb 26, 2022 306   Robert Morris W 83-74 80%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 14 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.8 2.9 0.9 0.1 10.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 4.2 7.9 7.9 3.7 0.5 25.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.4 10.5 13.5 8.9 3.3 0.4 0.0 40.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.5 4.2 1.0 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 6.5 11.3 16.0 18.8 17.5 13.6 7.9 3.5 0.9 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-3 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.1
18-4 84.1% 2.9    1.9 0.9 0.1
17-5 48.2% 3.8    1.7 1.8 0.3
16-6 17.4% 2.4    0.6 1.3 0.4
15-7 3.9% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-8 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 10.9% 10.9 5.3 4.6 1.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2 0.1% 52.9% 52.9% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-3 0.9% 24.6% 24.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
18-4 3.5% 20.9% 20.9% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 2.7
17-5 7.9% 17.8% 17.8% 15.1 0.2 0.9 0.3 6.5
16-6 13.6% 13.6% 13.6% 15.4 0.1 0.8 0.9 11.7
15-7 17.5% 12.2% 12.2% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.5 15.4
14-8 18.8% 9.3% 9.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.5 17.0
13-9 16.0% 7.2% 7.2% 15.9 0.1 1.1 14.8
12-10 11.3% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6 10.8
11-11 6.5% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.2 6.2
10-12 2.9% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 2.8
9-13 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9
8-14 0.2% 0.2
7-15 0.0% 0.0
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 15.5 0.1 0.7 3.1 6.3 89.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.3 70.4 29.6