Green Bay
Horizon
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.2#321
Expected Predictive Rating-15.9#344
Pace62.1#329
Improvement-3.7#325

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#279
First Shot-3.6#281
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#204
Layup/Dunks+0.0#164
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#255
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#306
Freethrows+2.2#35
Improvement-2.7#320

Defense
Total Defense-6.4#335
First Shot-5.8#333
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#222
Layups/Dunks-4.3#322
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#214
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#136
Freethrows-2.3#312
Improvement-1.0#235
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.1% 2.8% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 2.1% 8.4%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 30.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 60 - 10
Quad 46 - 126 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 169   Indiana St. L 77-81 23%     0 - 1 -6.6 +1.3 -7.7
  Nov 12, 2021 25   @ Wisconsin L 34-72 2%     0 - 2 -22.7 -27.5 +0.2
  Nov 18, 2021 175   UNC Greensboro L 58-60 18%     0 - 3 -2.5 +3.2 -6.2
  Nov 19, 2021 252   Florida International L 60-63 30%     0 - 4 -7.9 -10.7 +2.7
  Nov 21, 2021 147   Weber St. L 58-68 15%     0 - 5 -9.0 -11.2 +1.4
  Dec 02, 2021 306   Robert Morris W 70-58 52%     1 - 5 1 - 0 +1.2 -3.5 +5.8
  Dec 04, 2021 250   Youngstown St. L 58-82 39%     1 - 6 1 - 1 -31.2 -14.0 -19.6
  Dec 10, 2021 265   @ UMKC L 55-64 25%     1 - 7 -12.0 -11.1 -1.7
  Dec 12, 2021 55   @ Kansas St. L 64-82 3%     1 - 8 -6.6 +9.2 -18.4
  Dec 22, 2021 91   @ Minnesota L 56-72 5%     1 - 9 -7.2 -3.3 -6.4
  Dec 30, 2021 264   @ Northern Kentucky L 74-79 24%     1 - 10 1 - 2 -8.0 +7.6 -16.1
  Jan 01, 2022 206   @ Wright St. L 69-72 16%     1 - 11 1 - 3 -2.5 -3.3 +0.7
  Jan 05, 2022 269   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 49-63 43%     1 - 12 1 - 4 -22.3 -22.1 -1.7
  Jan 13, 2022 355   IUPUI W 69-54 82%     2 - 12 2 - 4 -5.0 -1.5 -1.3
  Jan 15, 2022 257   Illinois-Chicago L 63-80 40%     2 - 13 2 - 5 -24.5 -14.3 -10.2
  Jan 20, 2022 199   Detroit Mercy L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 22, 2022 105   Oakland L 63-75 14%    
  Jan 27, 2022 250   @ Youngstown St. L 64-72 21%    
  Jan 29, 2022 306   @ Robert Morris L 67-71 32%    
  Feb 04, 2022 156   @ Cleveland St. L 61-74 10%    
  Feb 06, 2022 261   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 65-72 23%    
  Feb 09, 2022 206   Wright St. L 70-76 32%    
  Feb 11, 2022 264   Northern Kentucky L 64-66 44%    
  Feb 13, 2022 269   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 63-70 25%    
  Feb 18, 2022 261   Purdue Fort Wayne L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 20, 2022 156   Cleveland St. L 64-72 24%    
  Feb 24, 2022 257   @ Illinois-Chicago L 64-72 23%    
  Feb 26, 2022 355   @ IUPUI W 64-59 65%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.2 2.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.2 0.7 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 3.8 1.7 0.1 7.2 8th
9th 0.5 3.4 6.7 3.9 0.7 15.2 9th
10th 0.2 2.2 7.8 11.4 6.8 0.9 0.0 29.4 10th
11th 0.9 6.2 12.5 11.8 5.7 1.0 0.0 38.2 11th
12th 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.5 12th
Total 1.8 7.6 15.2 20.2 20.6 16.1 9.6 5.4 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.0% 0.0
13-9 0.0% 0.0
12-10 0.2% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-11 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
10-12 2.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.4
9-13 5.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 5.4
8-14 9.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.6
7-15 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.1
6-16 20.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.6
5-17 20.2% 20.2
4-18 15.2% 15.2
3-19 7.6% 7.6
2-20 1.8% 1.8
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%