Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Horizon
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#269
Expected Predictive Rating-9.3#306
Pace67.9#199
Improvement+0.5#157

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#265
First Shot+0.1#176
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#345
Layup/Dunks-4.3#321
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#29
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#152
Freethrows+0.1#166
Improvement+1.4#84

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#248
First Shot-1.8#245
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#238
Layups/Dunks+1.4#130
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#253
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#306
Freethrows+0.9#114
Improvement-0.9#227
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.8% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 3.2% 7.5% 1.9%
.500 or above in Conference 40.9% 61.6% 34.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.4% 3.2% 2.1%
First Round1.5% 2.4% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Home) - 24.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 410 - 912 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 347   @ North Dakota W 75-60 70%     1 - 0 +3.6 -8.7 +12.0
  Nov 13, 2021 216   Eastern Kentucky L 71-77 47%     1 - 1 -11.0 -6.8 -4.1
  Nov 18, 2021 35   @ Florida L 45-81 4%     1 - 2 -22.0 -21.1 -1.2
  Nov 23, 2021 182   Bowling Green L 68-82 31%     1 - 3 -14.8 -5.1 -10.3
  Nov 24, 2021 134   Yale L 56-69 23%     1 - 4 -10.9 -9.1 -3.4
  Nov 28, 2021 277   Alcorn St. L 57-61 63%     1 - 5 -13.1 -18.7 +5.5
  Dec 02, 2021 250   Youngstown St. L 68-70 55%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -9.2 -5.5 -3.9
  Dec 04, 2021 306   Robert Morris W 77-69 69%     2 - 6 1 - 1 -2.8 -0.4 -2.2
  Dec 10, 2021 69   @ Colorado L 54-65 7%     2 - 7 -0.7 -11.1 +10.0
  Dec 13, 2021 89   Rhode Island L 58-82 18%     2 - 8 -20.1 -11.2 -8.9
  Dec 30, 2021 206   @ Wright St. L 75-80 27%     2 - 9 1 - 2 -4.5 -1.4 -3.0
  Jan 01, 2022 264   @ Northern Kentucky W 61-55 39%     3 - 9 2 - 2 +3.0 -6.0 +9.8
  Jan 05, 2022 321   @ Green Bay W 63-49 57%     4 - 9 3 - 2 +6.3 -7.9 +15.8
  Jan 07, 2022 199   @ Detroit Mercy L 60-85 26%     4 - 10 3 - 3 -24.1 -11.5 -13.6
  Jan 09, 2022 105   @ Oakland L 65-86 12%     4 - 11 3 - 4 -14.0 -5.2 -8.5
  Jan 13, 2022 257   Illinois-Chicago L 77-81 57%     4 - 12 3 - 5 -11.5 -4.1 -7.2
  Jan 15, 2022 355   IUPUI W 89-54 90%     5 - 12 4 - 5 +15.0 +19.2 +0.1
  Jan 20, 2022 105   Oakland L 66-74 24%    
  Jan 22, 2022 199   Detroit Mercy L 69-71 45%    
  Jan 27, 2022 306   @ Robert Morris W 72-71 49%    
  Jan 29, 2022 250   @ Youngstown St. L 68-72 35%    
  Feb 04, 2022 261   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 69-72 37%    
  Feb 06, 2022 156   @ Cleveland St. L 65-74 19%    
  Feb 09, 2022 264   Northern Kentucky W 68-66 60%    
  Feb 11, 2022 206   Wright St. L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 13, 2022 321   Green Bay W 70-63 75%    
  Feb 18, 2022 156   Cleveland St. L 67-71 38%    
  Feb 20, 2022 261   Purdue Fort Wayne W 71-69 59%    
  Feb 24, 2022 355   @ IUPUI W 67-58 78%    
  Feb 26, 2022 257   @ Illinois-Chicago L 68-71 36%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 10 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.3 2.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 6.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.4 6.1 3.5 0.7 0.1 14.2 4th
5th 0.2 3.6 8.3 4.0 0.4 0.0 16.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.8 8.1 4.9 0.5 0.0 16.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 7.6 6.0 0.9 0.0 16.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 6.0 5.7 1.2 0.0 14.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 3.6 3.9 0.9 0.0 9.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.6 7.0 12.3 17.3 19.3 17.7 12.0 6.8 3.2 1.1 0.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 17.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-7 5.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.2% 15.5% 15.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-7 1.1% 11.5% 11.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.9
14-8 3.2% 8.8% 8.8% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.9
13-9 6.8% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.3 6.4
12-10 12.0% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.5 11.5
11-11 17.7% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.6 17.1
10-12 19.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.4 18.8
9-13 17.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 17.0
8-14 12.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.2
7-15 7.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.0
6-16 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.5
5-17 0.7% 0.7
4-18 0.1% 0.1
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 2.6 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%