Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#199
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#249
Pace67.3#220
Improvement+3.0#57

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#154
First Shot-1.6#235
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#29
Layup/Dunks-7.4#356
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#75
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#38
Freethrows-0.8#248
Improvement-1.4#268

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#249
First Shot-3.1#278
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#130
Layups/Dunks-1.3#231
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#129
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#332
Freethrows+1.7#69
Improvement+4.4#9
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.5% 10.4% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 44.0% 52.2% 25.1%
.500 or above in Conference 57.6% 66.2% 37.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.4% 3.3% 3.7%
First Round8.1% 9.0% 6.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Away) - 69.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 52 - 11
Quad 412 - 414 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 66   @ Wyoming L 47-85 13%     0 - 1 -27.4 -18.0 -12.4
  Nov 13, 2021 88   @ Toledo L 73-81 16%     0 - 2 +1.0 +4.8 -3.9
  Nov 17, 2021 48   @ Mississippi St. L 64-77 10%     0 - 3 -0.6 +4.1 -6.5
  Nov 20, 2021 86   @ Louisville L 67-73 16%     0 - 4 +3.1 +2.4 +0.6
  Nov 27, 2021 132   @ Hofstra L 84-98 27%     0 - 5 -9.3 +6.0 -14.4
  Nov 30, 2021 217   @ Northeastern L 56-66 44%     0 - 6 -10.0 -7.5 -4.1
  Dec 02, 2021 355   @ IUPUI W 69-45 89%     1 - 6 1 - 0 +9.0 -2.0 +13.5
  Dec 05, 2021 257   @ Illinois-Chicago W 64-56 54%     2 - 6 2 - 0 +5.5 -9.1 +14.8
  Dec 09, 2021 164   @ Kent St. L 52-69 35%     2 - 7 -14.5 -12.1 -4.2
  Dec 11, 2021 315   Western Michigan W 83-64 83%     3 - 7 +7.2 +9.8 -0.9
  Dec 19, 2021 333   Central Michigan W 89-75 87%     4 - 7 +0.1 +4.2 -4.4
  Jan 07, 2022 269   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 85-60 74%     5 - 7 3 - 0 +16.7 +12.0 +5.7
  Jan 13, 2022 261   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 60-62 55%     5 - 8 3 - 1 -4.8 -14.7 +9.9
  Jan 15, 2022 156   @ Cleveland St. L 70-72 33%     5 - 9 3 - 2 +0.9 -0.9 +1.7
  Jan 20, 2022 321   @ Green Bay W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 22, 2022 269   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 71-69 55%    
  Jan 27, 2022 257   Illinois-Chicago W 74-68 72%    
  Jan 29, 2022 355   IUPUI W 73-55 96%    
  Feb 03, 2022 206   @ Wright St. L 76-78 40%    
  Feb 05, 2022 264   @ Northern Kentucky W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 09, 2022 306   @ Robert Morris W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 11, 2022 250   @ Youngstown St. W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 13, 2022 105   @ Oakland L 68-77 20%    
  Feb 18, 2022 264   Northern Kentucky W 71-65 74%    
  Feb 20, 2022 206   Wright St. W 78-75 63%    
  Feb 24, 2022 156   Cleveland St. W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 26, 2022 261   Purdue Fort Wayne W 75-69 73%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.2 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.8 3.6 0.9 0.1 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.1 9.6 6.3 1.3 0.1 21.8 4th
5th 0.2 3.6 9.1 5.4 0.9 0.0 19.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 7.8 5.0 0.6 0.0 15.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.5 4.9 0.6 0.0 12.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.6 3.8 0.8 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.4 0.7 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.3 7.4 12.5 17.6 19.1 18.0 12.3 6.1 1.9 0.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 29.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-7 5.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.3% 27.2% 27.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-7 1.9% 24.2% 24.2% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.4
14-8 6.1% 18.1% 18.1% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 5.0
13-9 12.3% 14.9% 14.9% 15.4 0.1 0.9 0.8 10.5
12-10 18.0% 12.3% 12.3% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.6 15.7
11-11 19.1% 9.7% 9.7% 15.9 0.2 1.6 17.3
10-12 17.6% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2 16.4
9-13 12.5% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.5 12.0
8-14 7.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.2 7.2
7-15 3.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.2
6-16 1.3% 1.3
5-17 0.3% 0.3
4-18 0.0% 0.0
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.6 6.4 90.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.5 22.0 19.5 48.8 9.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%