Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#261
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#248
Pace69.8#147
Improvement+4.2#28

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#233
First Shot-0.3#188
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#303
Layup/Dunks-2.9#288
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#281
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#71
Freethrows+1.3#86
Improvement+0.5#150

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#275
First Shot-3.7#295
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#137
Layups/Dunks-4.5#325
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#159
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#209
Freethrows+1.1#100
Improvement+3.7#17
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 3.6% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 42.2% 49.6% 23.9%
.500 or above in Conference 53.5% 61.8% 32.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.0% 2.1% 1.9%
First Round2.2% 2.5% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Home) - 71.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 8
Quad 413 - 714 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 16, 2021 314   Austin Peay W 65-60 72%     1 - 0 -6.2 -9.6 +3.6
  Nov 19, 2021 91   @ Minnesota L 49-78 10%     1 - 1 -20.2 -21.6 +2.7
  Nov 26, 2021 304   SE Louisiana W 74-66 61%     2 - 1 -0.3 -7.1 +6.6
  Nov 27, 2021 315   Western Michigan L 85-93 OT 65%     2 - 2 -17.3 +4.5 -21.7
  Nov 28, 2021 221   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 78-85 31%     2 - 3 -7.3 +0.9 -8.0
  Dec 02, 2021 206   Wright St. L 73-86 47%     2 - 4 0 - 1 -17.5 -1.2 -17.0
  Dec 04, 2021 264   Northern Kentucky W 71-57 60%     3 - 4 1 - 1 +6.0 -3.5 +10.0
  Dec 08, 2021 273   @ SIU Edwardsville L 59-80 45%     3 - 5 -24.9 -14.9 -9.9
  Dec 11, 2021 316   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-65 73%     4 - 5 +1.2 -3.7 +4.9
  Dec 30, 2021 156   @ Cleveland St. L 81-90 22%     4 - 6 1 - 2 -6.1 +6.2 -12.0
  Jan 05, 2022 156   @ Cleveland St. L 58-65 22%     4 - 7 1 - 3 -4.1 -13.8 +9.7
  Jan 07, 2022 250   @ Youngstown St. W 71-61 38%     5 - 7 2 - 3 +7.8 -3.5 +11.4
  Jan 09, 2022 306   @ Robert Morris W 76-70 52%     6 - 7 3 - 3 +0.2 +2.3 -1.8
  Jan 13, 2022 199   Detroit Mercy W 62-60 45%     7 - 7 4 - 3 -2.1 -14.5 +12.5
  Jan 15, 2022 105   Oakland L 68-76 24%     7 - 8 4 - 4 -6.0 -0.8 -5.6
  Jan 21, 2022 306   Robert Morris W 76-71 71%    
  Jan 23, 2022 250   Youngstown St. W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 28, 2022 264   @ Northern Kentucky L 67-69 40%    
  Jan 30, 2022 206   @ Wright St. L 74-80 28%    
  Feb 04, 2022 269   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 72-69 63%    
  Feb 06, 2022 321   Green Bay W 72-65 77%    
  Feb 10, 2022 355   IUPUI W 71-56 91%    
  Feb 12, 2022 257   Illinois-Chicago W 72-70 60%    
  Feb 14, 2022 156   Cleveland St. L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 18, 2022 321   @ Green Bay W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 20, 2022 269   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 69-71 41%    
  Feb 24, 2022 105   @ Oakland L 66-78 13%    
  Feb 26, 2022 199   @ Detroit Mercy L 69-75 27%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.8 2.9 0.8 0.0 9.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.9 8.5 5.7 1.2 0.2 19.9 4th
5th 0.2 3.7 9.2 5.3 0.7 0.0 19.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 8.1 5.3 0.7 0.0 16.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 6.1 5.5 0.7 0.0 13.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.3 4.4 1.0 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.2 1.8 2.7 0.7 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.8 8.9 13.8 18.7 19.5 16.5 10.4 5.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 73.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-6 29.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
15-7 3.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 0.0% 34.8% 34.8% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-6 0.3% 6.0% 6.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-7 1.7% 6.3% 6.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
14-8 5.0% 9.1% 9.1% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 4.6
13-9 10.4% 5.3% 5.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 9.9
12-10 16.5% 4.2% 4.2% 15.9 0.0 0.7 15.8
11-11 19.5% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8 18.7
10-12 18.7% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.4 18.3
9-13 13.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 13.6
8-14 8.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.8
7-15 3.8% 3.8
6-16 1.1% 1.1
5-17 0.2% 0.2
4-18 0.0% 0.0
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.9 96.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%