IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.5	#264
Expected Predictive Rating	-8.5	#296

Pace	63.2	#317
Improvement	-3.2	#306

Offense
Total Offense	-2.4	#240

First Shot	-5.6	#321
After Offensive Rebound	+3.3	#12

Layup/Dunks	-6.5	#349
2 Pt Jumpshots	-0.7	#209
3 Pt Jumpshots	+3.3	#70
Freethrows	-1.8	#300

Improvement	-1.3	#262

Defense
Total Defense	-3.1	#273

First Shot	-2.7	#263
After Offensive Rebounds	-0.5	#215

Layups/Dunks	-5.3	#336
2 Pt Jumpshots	-0.4	#229
3 Pt Jumpshots	+2.4	#84
Freethrows	+0.7	#137

Improvement	-1.9	#283

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.3%	3.7%	1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.9	15.9	16.0

.500 or above	8.6%	16.5%	4.2%
.500 or above in Conference	15.0%	26.6%	8.6%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	0.8%	0.2%	1.1%

First Four	1.6%	2.3%	1.2%
First Round	1.5%	2.6%	1.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Away) - 36.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	1 - 5	1 - 8
Quad 4	9 - 9	11 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 12, 2021	175	UNC Greensboro	L	69-70 OT	41%	0 - 1			-4.0	-4.6	+0.6
Nov 18, 2021	263	Eastern Michigan	W	74-73	60%	1 - 1			-7.0	+3.2	-10.1
Nov 22, 2021	213	Western Illinois	L	67-69	47%	1 - 2			-6.8	-13.5	+6.8
Nov 26, 2021	94	@ DePaul	L	68-77	10%	1 - 3			-0.5	-1.5	+0.9
Dec 02, 2021	156	@ Cleveland St.	L	58-72	21%	1 - 4	0 - 1		-11.1	-8.9	-3.5
Dec 04, 2021	261	@ Purdue Fort Wayne	L	57-71	40%	1 - 5	0 - 2		-16.8	-15.5	-1.8
Dec 08, 2021	286	Canisius	W	75-62	66%	2 - 5			+3.3	+1.6	+2.4
Dec 18, 2021	216	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	68-81 OT	30%	2 - 6			-13.0	-15.9	+4.9
Dec 22, 2021	27	@ Indiana	L	61-79	4%	2 - 7			-2.9	+0.8	-4.7
Dec 30, 2021	321	Green Bay	W	79-74	76%	3 - 7	1 - 2		-7.7	+7.4	-14.6
Jan 01, 2022	269	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	55-61	61%	3 - 8	1 - 3		-14.3	-14.6	-0.5
Jan 13, 2022	250	@ Youngstown St.	W	68-67	37%	4 - 8	2 - 3		-1.2	-1.3	+0.2
Jan 15, 2022	306	@ Robert Morris	L	64-74	51%	4 - 9	2 - 4		-15.8	-7.9	-8.8
Jan 20, 2022	257	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	66-69	36%
Jan 22, 2022	355	@ IUPUI	W	65-56	80%
Jan 25, 2022	206	Wright St.	L	72-73	48%
Jan 28, 2022	261	Purdue Fort Wayne	W	69-67	60%
Jan 30, 2022	156	Cleveland St.	L	66-69	40%
Feb 03, 2022	105	Oakland	L	65-72	26%
Feb 05, 2022	199	Detroit Mercy	L	68-69	47%
Feb 09, 2022	269	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	66-68	40%
Feb 11, 2022	321	@ Green Bay	W	66-64	56%
Feb 13, 2022	206	@ Wright St.	L	70-76	28%
Feb 18, 2022	199	@ Detroit Mercy	L	65-71	26%
Feb 20, 2022	105	@ Oakland	L	62-75	12%
Feb 24, 2022	306	Robert Morris	W	72-67	71%

Feb 26, 2022	250	Youngstown St.	W	69-67	58%
Projected Record						10 - 17	8 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-22	1-21	2-20	3-19	4-18	5-17	6-16	7-15	8-14	9-13	10-12	11-11	12-10	13-9	14-8	15-7	16-6	17-5	18-4	19-3	20-2	21-1	22-0		Total
1st															0.0	0.0									0.0	1st
2nd													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1									0.3	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.1	0.7	0.8	0.2	0.0									1.9	3rd
4th											0.2	1.6	2.3	0.7	0.1										4.9	4th
5th										0.2	2.2	4.0	1.2	0.1	0.0										7.6	5th
6th									0.1	2.0	5.5	2.4	0.2												10.1	6th
7th								0.1	1.9	6.7	4.4	0.4	0.0												13.5	7th
8th							0.2	2.4	7.9	6.3	0.9	0.0													17.7	8th
9th						0.6	3.8	9.2	7.4	1.5	0.1														22.7	9th
10th				0.0	0.6	3.1	5.6	4.0	0.8	0.1															14.2	10th
11th			0.1	0.5	1.8	2.5	1.7	0.4	0.0																6.9	11th
12th			0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0																			0.2	12th

Total			0.1	0.7	2.5	6.3	11.2	16.0	18.2	16.8	13.2	8.5	4.4	1.6	0.4	0.1										Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7	10.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0
14-8	1.4%	0.0			0.0
13-9	0.0%
12-10	0.0%
11-11	0.0%

Total	0.0%	0.0			0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7	0.1%		25.4%	25.4%		14.7															0.0	0.0		0.1
14-8	0.4%		20.5%	20.5%		15.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3
13-9	1.6%		7.0%	7.0%		15.8																0.0	0.1	1.5
12-10	4.4%		8.7%	8.7%		15.9																0.1	0.3	4.0
11-11	8.5%		6.7%	6.7%		15.9																0.0	0.5	7.9
10-12	13.2%		4.2%	4.2%		16.0																	0.6	12.7
9-13	16.8%		2.1%	2.1%		16.0																	0.3	16.4
8-14	18.2%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	18.0
7-15	16.0%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.1	16.0
6-16	11.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	11.2
5-17	6.3%																							6.3
4-18	2.5%																							2.5
3-19	0.7%																							0.7
2-20	0.1%																							0.1
1-21
0-22

Total	100%		2.3%	2.3%	0.0%	15.9															0.0	0.2	2.1	97.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%