Mid-American
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
84 Ohio 35.6%   13   13 - 2 5 - 0 24 - 5 16 - 3 +6.8      +3.2 88 +3.5 81 69.8 146 +15.4 22 +15.2 1
88 Toledo 30.7%   13 - 4 6 - 1 23 - 7 16 - 4 +6.5      +4.5 60 +2.0 111 71.6 94 +7.8 75 +7.5 2
103 Buffalo 17.6%   7 - 6 3 - 2 17 - 10 13 - 6 +4.5      +4.3 65 +0.2 164 79.6 7 +2.0 142 +0.1 5
152 Akron 6.5%   8 - 5 3 - 2 17 - 11 12 - 8 +0.6      +2.0 114 -1.5 215 62.5 321 +0.7 158 +0.9 4
163 Miami (OH) 5.1%   5 - 8 2 - 3 14 - 14 11 - 9 0.0      +3.0 98 -2.9 267 66.3 255 -2.4 209 -0.1 6
164 Kent St. 4.8%   7 - 8 4 - 3 14 - 14 11 - 9 0.0      -1.8 223 +1.8 119 63.9 308 -1.9 201 -0.4 7
182 Bowling Green 3.2%   6 - 8 1 - 4 14 - 15 9 - 11 -0.8      +2.5 104 -3.3 281 76.1 31 -2.9 217 -5.3 10
242 Ball St. 0.6%   6 - 10 2 - 4 12 - 18 8 - 12 -4.5      -0.9 205 -3.5 291 74.5 57 -4.4 245 -3.5 9
263 Eastern Michigan 0.5%   6 - 8 2 - 2 11 - 19 7 - 13 -5.5      -5.2 315 -0.2 175 75.9 37 -4.2 243 -7.6 11
295 Northern Illinois 0.2%   4 - 8 1 - 1 9 - 21 6 - 14 -7.9      -7.7 342 -0.2 173 68.2 188 -3.6 232 +6.3 3
315 Western Michigan 0.0%   2 - 12 0 - 6 6 - 22 4 - 16 -9.3      -2.7 252 -6.6 336 65.5 275 -10.2 315 -16.8 12
333 Central Michigan 0.0%   2 - 12 1 - 2 5 - 24 4 - 14 -11.4      -2.8 256 -8.6 351 72.3 84 -10.6 318 -2.4 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Ohio 1.6 55.9 30.8 9.0 2.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Toledo 1.7 51.9 31.9 10.4 4.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Buffalo 3.5 7.7 18.2 28.9 21.3 12.3 6.6 3.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Akron 4.2 4.3 11.9 22.9 22.0 16.1 11.2 6.3 3.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Miami (OH) 5.1 1.2 5.6 14.8 18.4 20.1 16.6 11.3 6.7 3.6 1.3 0.3 0.1
Kent St. 5.2 1.0 4.4 13.1 17.5 21.4 18.9 13.0 7.3 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
Bowling Green 6.5 0.2 1.4 5.5 9.5 14.4 17.4 19.7 16.0 9.9 4.2 1.6 0.3
Ball St. 7.4 0.1 0.3 1.7 4.3 8.5 14.5 20.2 22.8 16.0 8.2 2.7 0.8
Eastern Michigan 8.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.5 4.4 7.7 12.8 18.9 25.5 17.0 7.6 2.1
Northern Illinois 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.7 7.8 12.5 19.3 26.0 17.6 7.3
Western Michigan 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 3.0 7.5 18.6 29.9 39.5
Central Michigan 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.9 9.9 21.2 32.2 29.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Ohio 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 5.7 12.7 19.7 23.0 21.0 11.5 3.3
Toledo 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 3.1 6.7 13.2 20.4 23.1 19.3 10.3 2.7
Buffalo 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.8 6.7 11.9 17.6 20.5 19.1 12.6 6.1 1.2
Akron 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.9 6.6 11.1 15.6 17.9 17.2 13.7 8.5 3.8 1.0 0.1
Miami (OH) 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 7.1 11.1 15.8 18.8 17.1 13.5 7.6 3.0 0.9 0.1
Kent St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 6.5 12.9 18.0 20.4 17.7 12.1 5.9 2.2 0.5 0.1
Bowling Green 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 5.4 9.4 14.0 17.8 18.1 14.7 9.8 4.7 2.0 0.5 0.0
Ball St. 8 - 12 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.6 9.1 15.7 18.7 19.1 15.4 9.0 4.5 1.5 0.4 0.1
Eastern Michigan 7 - 13 0.3 1.9 5.9 11.5 16.1 18.4 16.9 13.1 8.3 4.3 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 6 - 14 0.6 3.2 7.5 12.9 16.4 17.4 14.4 11.3 8.0 4.3 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Western Michigan 4 - 16 1.8 6.9 15.4 20.1 21.8 16.6 9.7 4.8 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Central Michigan 4 - 16 4.0 12.2 20.0 21.4 18.2 12.6 6.8 2.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Ohio 55.9% 39.3 14.4 2.0 0.2 0.0
Toledo 51.9% 35.9 13.8 1.9 0.2 0.0
Buffalo 7.7% 2.9 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0
Akron 4.3% 1.5 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
Miami (OH) 1.2% 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1
Kent St. 1.0% 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bowling Green 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Ball St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan
Central Michigan


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Ohio 35.6% 31.3% 4.3% 13   0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.1 1.5 5.2 15.3 9.5 1.1 0.0 64.4 6.2%
Toledo 30.7% 30.2% 0.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.6 9.4 14.2 4.0 0.3 69.3 0.7%
Buffalo 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.3 7.5 5.6 1.7 0.1 82.4 0.0%
Akron 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.4 2.3 0.5 93.5 0.0%
Miami (OH) 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.1 1.2 94.9 0.0%
Kent St. 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.0 0.8 95.2 0.0%
Bowling Green 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 0.6 96.8 0.0%
Ball St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Ohio 35.6% 3.2% 33.8% 9.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 30.7% 0.4% 30.4% 7.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 17.6% 0.0% 17.6% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Akron 6.5% 0.1% 6.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 5.1% 0.4% 4.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 4.8% 0.3% 4.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 3.2% 0.2% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 95.2 4.8
1st Round 99.1% 1.0 0.9 96.5 2.7
2nd Round 20.3% 0.2 79.7 20.1 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 5.5% 0.1 94.5 5.5 0.0
Elite Eight 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0