Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#242
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#245
Pace74.5#57
Improvement+1.5#104

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#205
First Shot+0.4#164
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#278
Layup/Dunks-1.5#228
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#334
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#73
Freethrows+2.1#36
Improvement-1.3#263

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#291
First Shot-0.8#199
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#343
Layups/Dunks-0.1#188
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#99
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#273
Freethrows+0.6#145
Improvement+2.8#29
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 9.3% 12.7% 3.1%
.500 or above in Conference 30.8% 39.4% 15.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 0.7% 4.6%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Away) - 64.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 83 - 13
Quad 410 - 513 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 233   @ Georgia Southern L 71-82 38%     0 - 1 -12.3 -1.5 -10.7
  Nov 13, 2021 338   Nebraska Omaha W 73-69 83%     1 - 1 -10.5 -7.9 -2.6
  Nov 18, 2021 252   Florida International L 60-73 52%     1 - 2 -17.9 -14.2 -3.5
  Nov 19, 2021 147   Weber St. L 74-85 30%     1 - 3 -10.0 -5.2 -4.0
  Nov 21, 2021 154   Massachusetts W 89-86 31%     2 - 3 +3.5 +4.6 -1.3
  Nov 27, 2021 169   Indiana St. W 97-75 43%     3 - 3 +19.4 +20.7 -2.1
  Dec 01, 2021 213   @ Western Illinois L 80-93 33%     3 - 4 -12.8 +1.9 -14.1
  Dec 08, 2021 19   @ Xavier L 50-96 4%     3 - 5 -29.7 -22.0 -1.3
  Dec 18, 2021 202   @ Illinois St. L 64-85 30%     3 - 6 -20.2 -12.1 -7.9
  Dec 21, 2021 352   Eastern Illinois W 75-55 89%     4 - 6 +2.0 +2.1 +1.1
  Jan 01, 2022 182   Bowling Green W 81-80 45%     5 - 6 1 - 0 -2.3 -0.8 -1.5
  Jan 04, 2022 164   Kent St. L 65-66 42%     5 - 7 1 - 1 -3.5 -5.9 +2.4
  Jan 08, 2022 263   @ Eastern Michigan W 78-72 44%     6 - 7 2 - 1 +3.1 -0.3 +2.8
  Jan 11, 2022 152   @ Akron L 74-84 23%     6 - 8 2 - 2 -6.9 +2.1 -9.2
  Jan 14, 2022 103   Buffalo L 68-74 27%     6 - 9 2 - 3 -4.0 -7.9 +4.1
  Jan 18, 2022 88   @ Toledo L 70-83 11%     6 - 10 2 - 4 -4.0 -2.5 -0.9
  Jan 22, 2022 333   @ Central Michigan W 81-77 64%    
  Jan 25, 2022 163   Miami (OH) L 75-77 44%    
  Jan 27, 2022 295   @ Northern Illinois W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 29, 2022 315   Western Michigan W 78-71 76%    
  Feb 01, 2022 84   @ Ohio L 68-82 9%    
  Feb 05, 2022 88   Toledo L 73-81 23%    
  Feb 08, 2022 333   Central Michigan W 84-75 82%    
  Feb 12, 2022 103   @ Buffalo L 76-87 14%    
  Feb 15, 2022 295   Northern Illinois W 73-67 72%    
  Feb 19, 2022 182   @ Bowling Green L 78-84 26%    
  Feb 22, 2022 164   @ Kent St. L 66-73 25%    
  Feb 26, 2022 263   Eastern Michigan W 77-74 64%    
  Mar 01, 2022 152   Akron L 71-74 43%    
  Mar 04, 2022 315   @ Western Michigan W 75-73 56%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.7 1.5 0.1 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.7 6.9 3.1 0.3 14.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.8 9.3 4.8 0.5 0.0 20.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 5.9 9.9 5.3 0.6 0.0 22.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.2 7.1 3.4 0.4 0.0 16.0 9th
10th 0.3 2.4 3.4 1.8 0.2 8.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.6 9.1 15.7 18.7 19.1 15.4 9.0 4.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 21.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 9.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 10.8% 10.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.4% 1.6% 1.6% 14.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 1.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 1.4
12-8 4.5% 2.0% 2.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 4.5
11-9 9.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 8.8
10-10 15.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 15.2
9-11 19.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 18.9
8-12 18.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.7
7-13 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.7
6-14 9.1% 9.1
5-15 4.6% 4.6
4-16 1.5% 1.5
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%