Toledo
Mid-American
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.5#88
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#75
Pace71.6#94
Improvement+2.8#60

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#60
First Shot+2.9#93
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#65
Layup/Dunks+2.5#86
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#134
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#283
Freethrows+3.1#13
Improvement+0.2#166

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#111
First Shot+3.2#74
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#283
Layups/Dunks+0.8#151
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#115
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#204
Freethrows+2.1#50
Improvement+2.6#37
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.7% 35.9% 27.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 1.6% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.6 12.1 12.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 51.9% 76.9% 36.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
First Round30.4% 35.4% 27.5%
Second Round7.0% 9.3% 5.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.0% 2.4% 1.8%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Away) - 37.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 39 - 311 - 7
Quad 413 - 124 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 186   @ Valparaiso W 69-61 68%     1 - 0 +9.6 +0.0 +9.9
  Nov 13, 2021 199   Detroit Mercy W 81-73 84%     2 - 0 +3.9 +5.9 -1.9
  Nov 17, 2021 105   @ Oakland L 59-80 48%     2 - 1 -14.0 -12.5 -0.7
  Nov 22, 2021 195   Charlotte W 98-86 78%     3 - 1 +10.5 +25.0 -14.2
  Nov 23, 2021 135   Tulane W 68-67 67%     4 - 1 +3.0 -5.4 +8.3
  Nov 24, 2021 173   Coastal Carolina W 79-70 75%     5 - 1 +8.6 +6.1 +2.6
  Dec 04, 2021 20   @ Michigan St. L 68-81 19%     5 - 2 +2.8 -1.1 +4.8
  Dec 07, 2021 117   Bradley W 67-65 70%     6 - 2 +3.0 -0.7 +3.8
  Dec 11, 2021 99   @ Richmond L 69-72 43%     6 - 3 +5.3 -1.6 +6.9
  Dec 21, 2021 200   Marshall W 95-63 84%     7 - 3 +27.9 +8.9 +15.7
  Dec 29, 2021 315   Western Michigan W 83-56 95%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +15.2 +5.1 +11.0
  Jan 01, 2022 164   @ Kent St. L 63-66 65%     8 - 4 1 - 1 -0.5 -5.5 +4.9
  Jan 04, 2022 333   @ Central Michigan W 82-54 92%     9 - 4 2 - 1 +19.2 +2.5 +16.9
  Jan 08, 2022 295   Northern Illinois W 94-63 93%     10 - 4 3 - 1 +20.6 +14.8 +4.2
  Jan 11, 2022 163   @ Miami (OH) W 75-72 65%     11 - 4 4 - 1 +5.6 +1.1 +4.5
  Jan 15, 2022 182   @ Bowling Green W 91-78 68%     12 - 4 5 - 1 +14.8 +12.8 +1.5
  Jan 18, 2022 242   Ball St. W 83-70 89%     13 - 4 6 - 1 +6.0 +1.9 +3.6
  Jan 21, 2022 84   @ Ohio L 72-75 37%    
  Jan 25, 2022 103   Buffalo W 83-78 68%    
  Jan 28, 2022 152   Akron W 75-67 80%    
  Feb 01, 2022 263   @ Eastern Michigan W 78-69 80%    
  Feb 05, 2022 242   @ Ball St. W 81-73 77%    
  Feb 08, 2022 84   Ohio W 74-72 60%    
  Feb 12, 2022 295   @ Northern Illinois W 75-63 85%    
  Feb 15, 2022 164   Kent St. W 73-64 81%    
  Feb 19, 2022 333   Central Michigan W 87-67 97%    
  Feb 22, 2022 315   @ Western Michigan W 79-66 88%    
  Feb 26, 2022 163   Miami (OH) W 79-70 81%    
  Mar 01, 2022 103   @ Buffalo L 80-81 46%    
  Mar 04, 2022 182   Bowling Green W 84-74 82%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 5.8 14.7 17.6 10.3 2.7 51.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 7.5 12.9 8.3 1.7 31.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.5 4.3 1.6 0.1 10.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.7 0.6 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 3.1 6.7 13.2 20.4 23.1 19.3 10.3 2.7 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 2.7    2.7
18-2 100.0% 10.3    9.8 0.4
17-3 91.1% 17.6    13.6 3.9 0.0
16-4 63.5% 14.7    7.8 6.3 0.6
15-5 28.5% 5.8    1.7 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.6% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 51.9% 51.9 35.9 13.8 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 2.7% 56.3% 48.1% 8.2% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.2 15.7%
18-2 10.3% 44.3% 42.6% 1.7% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.5 0.9 0.0 5.7 2.9%
17-3 19.3% 37.3% 36.8% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.3 3.4 3.3 0.2 12.1 0.7%
16-4 23.1% 32.8% 32.7% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 2.2 4.6 0.8 0.0 15.6 0.0%
15-5 20.4% 26.2% 26.2% 13.0 0.9 3.3 1.1 0.0 15.1
14-6 13.2% 20.8% 20.8% 13.4 0.2 1.5 1.0 0.1 10.5
13-7 6.7% 18.1% 18.1% 13.6 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 5.5
12-8 3.1% 12.9% 12.9% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.7
11-9 0.9% 8.8% 8.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
10-10 0.3% 16.4% 16.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 30.7% 30.2% 0.5% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.6 9.4 14.2 4.0 0.3 69.3 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 8.8 2.7 4.7 11.2 11.5 13.9 15.0 10.1 18.8 9.7 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 24.9% 11.2 1.2 3.5 10.1 9.7 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 11.2% 11.3 1.6 4.4 4.0 1.2