Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#163
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#209
Pace66.3#255
Improvement-3.4#313

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#98
First Shot+2.1#110
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#112
Layup/Dunks-5.6#337
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#24
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#52
Freethrows+0.1#168
Improvement-3.3#337

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#267
First Shot-2.7#266
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#184
Layups/Dunks+0.4#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#79
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#340
Freethrows+0.4#158
Improvement-0.2#189
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 5.5% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 49.9% 54.2% 26.3%
.500 or above in Conference 76.9% 81.0% 54.1%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round4.9% 5.3% 2.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Home) - 84.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 33 - 74 - 12
Quad 410 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 125   @ Georgia Tech W 72-69 31%     1 - 0 +8.3 +1.1 +7.0
  Nov 13, 2021 335   Lamar W 104-75 90%     2 - 0 +15.0 +18.5 -4.7
  Nov 17, 2021 293   Stetson W 80-65 83%     3 - 0 +4.7 +7.1 -1.5
  Nov 27, 2021 213   @ Western Illinois L 67-79 50%     3 - 1 -11.8 -2.3 -10.4
  Dec 01, 2021 74   Cincinnati L 58-59 32%     3 - 2 +3.9 -1.2 +5.0
  Dec 04, 2021 169   @ Indiana St. L 68-69 41%     3 - 3 +1.4 -3.6 +5.1
  Dec 14, 2021 68   @ Clemson L 76-89 16%     3 - 4 -2.5 +11.0 -14.0
  Dec 18, 2021 192   Bellarmine L 68-77 65%     3 - 5 -12.9 +4.2 -18.9
  Dec 29, 2021 103   @ Buffalo W 91-81 25%     4 - 5 1 - 0 +17.0 +9.5 +6.4
  Jan 08, 2022 182   @ Bowling Green L 83-87 OT 43%     4 - 6 1 - 1 -2.2 -3.6 +1.9
  Jan 11, 2022 88   Toledo L 72-75 35%     4 - 7 1 - 2 +1.0 +0.5 +0.5
  Jan 15, 2022 315   @ Western Michigan W 70-62 74%     5 - 7 2 - 2 +1.2 -0.3 +2.4
  Jan 18, 2022 84   Ohio L 63-86 34%     5 - 8 2 - 3 -18.8 -7.2 -11.6
  Jan 22, 2022 295   Northern Illinois W 73-63 85%    
  Jan 25, 2022 242   @ Ball St. W 77-75 56%    
  Jan 29, 2022 263   @ Eastern Michigan W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 01, 2022 164   Kent St. W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 03, 2022 152   Akron W 71-69 59%    
  Feb 05, 2022 152   @ Akron L 68-71 37%    
  Feb 08, 2022 315   Western Michigan W 78-66 87%    
  Feb 12, 2022 182   Bowling Green W 80-77 63%    
  Feb 15, 2022 84   @ Ohio L 67-76 18%    
  Feb 19, 2022 295   @ Northern Illinois W 70-65 68%    
  Feb 22, 2022 103   Buffalo L 78-80 44%    
  Feb 24, 2022 333   Central Michigan W 83-69 90%    
  Feb 26, 2022 88   @ Toledo L 70-79 19%    
  Mar 01, 2022 333   @ Central Michigan W 81-72 78%    
  Mar 04, 2022 263   Eastern Michigan W 76-68 78%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.7 4.4 0.6 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.4 3.8 8.3 5.3 0.6 18.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.0 9.5 5.3 0.8 0.0 20.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.2 7.8 4.7 0.6 0.0 16.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.1 5.3 3.3 0.4 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 3.2 2.1 0.3 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.5 1.3 0.2 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 7.1 11.1 15.8 18.8 17.1 13.5 7.6 3.0 0.9 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 92.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 52.8% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 18.1% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 18.0% 18.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.9% 17.1% 17.1% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7
15-5 3.0% 14.4% 14.4% 13.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.6
14-6 7.6% 11.7% 11.7% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 6.8
13-7 13.5% 8.6% 8.6% 14.6 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 12.4
12-8 17.1% 5.4% 5.4% 15.1 0.1 0.6 0.2 16.2
11-9 18.8% 4.3% 4.3% 15.3 0.0 0.5 0.3 18.0
10-10 15.8% 3.0% 3.0% 15.8 0.1 0.4 15.3
9-11 11.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 11.0
8-12 7.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.0
7-13 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.0
6-14 1.4% 1.4
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.1 1.2 94.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%