Buffalo
Mid-American
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.5#103
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#142
Pace79.6#7
Improvement-3.9#333

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#65
First Shot+2.0#113
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#38
Layup/Dunks+1.2#129
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#104
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#186
Freethrows-0.4#208
Improvement-3.7#343

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#164
First Shot+1.0#144
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#248
Layups/Dunks-2.3#266
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#27
Freethrows+0.2#177
Improvement-0.2#194
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.6% 18.8% 13.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 96.2% 98.0% 90.3%
.500 or above in Conference 95.7% 97.8% 89.2%
Conference Champion 7.7% 9.5% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.6% 18.8% 13.7%
Second Round2.9% 3.3% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Home) - 76.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 23 - 4
Quad 35 - 48 - 8
Quad 410 - 318 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 24   @ Michigan L 76-88 16%     0 - 1 +3.3 +6.5 -2.6
  Nov 15, 2021 83   @ North Texas W 69-66 31%     1 - 1 +12.5 +7.6 +5.2
  Nov 20, 2021 291   Rider W 87-65 91%     2 - 1 +11.8 +1.0 +8.4
  Nov 23, 2021 162   Stephen F. Austin L 78-79 66%     2 - 2 -0.8 +0.5 -1.3
  Nov 24, 2021 202   Illinois St. W 106-90 72%     3 - 2 +14.3 +19.3 -6.4
  Dec 04, 2021 80   @ St. Bonaventure L 65-68 31%     3 - 3 +6.7 -3.5 +10.2
  Dec 08, 2021 112   @ Western Kentucky W 77-67 42%     4 - 3 +16.7 +7.5 +9.2
  Dec 18, 2021 286   @ Canisius L 64-65 81%     4 - 4 -5.7 -11.8 +6.2
  Dec 29, 2021 163   Miami (OH) L 81-91 75%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -12.5 -5.0 -6.3
  Jan 01, 2022 152   @ Akron L 76-88 56%     4 - 6 0 - 2 -8.9 +2.4 -11.2
  Jan 05, 2022 182   Bowling Green W 99-88 77%     5 - 6 1 - 2 +7.7 +12.3 -5.6
  Jan 11, 2022 315   @ Western Michigan W 78-64 85%     6 - 6 2 - 2 +7.2 +4.4 +3.6
  Jan 14, 2022 242   @ Ball St. W 74-68 73%     7 - 6 3 - 2 +4.0 -3.3 +7.2
  Jan 22, 2022 164   Kent St. W 76-69 76%    
  Jan 25, 2022 88   @ Toledo L 78-83 32%    
  Jan 29, 2022 84   Ohio W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 05, 2022 333   @ Central Michigan W 89-76 88%    
  Feb 08, 2022 263   Eastern Michigan W 84-72 88%    
  Feb 12, 2022 242   Ball St. W 87-76 86%    
  Feb 15, 2022 182   @ Bowling Green W 86-83 58%    
  Feb 17, 2022 263   @ Eastern Michigan W 82-75 74%    
  Feb 19, 2022 315   Western Michigan W 85-69 94%    
  Feb 22, 2022 163   @ Miami (OH) W 80-78 56%    
  Feb 24, 2022 295   @ Northern Illinois W 78-68 80%    
  Feb 26, 2022 295   Northern Illinois W 80-65 92%    
  Mar 01, 2022 88   Toledo W 81-80 54%    
  Mar 04, 2022 164   @ Kent St. W 73-71 56%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 13 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.6 1.2 7.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 6.6 7.5 2.4 0.1 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.1 11.4 10.4 2.6 0.1 28.9 3rd
4th 0.2 3.3 9.1 6.9 1.8 0.0 21.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 5.7 4.0 0.6 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.8 6.7 11.9 17.6 20.5 19.1 12.6 6.1 1.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 93.9% 1.2    0.8 0.3
16-4 59.2% 3.6    1.6 1.7 0.4
15-5 19.6% 2.5    0.5 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.7% 7.7 2.9 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 1.2% 35.2% 34.4% 0.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 1.2%
16-4 6.1% 30.4% 30.4% 12.5 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 4.3
15-5 12.6% 28.4% 28.4% 13.0 0.0 0.8 2.1 0.6 0.0 9.0
14-6 19.1% 22.2% 22.2% 13.3 0.4 2.4 1.3 0.1 14.9
13-7 20.5% 16.5% 16.5% 13.6 0.1 1.4 1.6 0.3 17.1
12-8 17.6% 12.2% 12.2% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 15.4
11-9 11.9% 11.0% 11.0% 14.3 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 10.6
10-10 6.7% 7.1% 7.1% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 6.2
9-11 2.8% 5.9% 5.9% 15.2 0.1 0.0 2.6
8-12 1.0% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.0
7-13 0.4% 0.4
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.3 7.5 5.6 1.7 0.1 82.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 10.4 1.4 3.7 1.4 4.2 7.9 29.9 27.1 15.9 8.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 1.1% 12.0 1.1