Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.3#315
Expected Predictive Rating-10.2#315
Pace65.5#275
Improvement+1.5#108

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#252
First Shot-3.1#273
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#141
Layup/Dunks-1.8#244
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#118
Freethrows-0.7#236
Improvement-0.2#188

Defense
Total Defense-6.6#336
First Shot-5.8#332
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#251
Layups/Dunks-8.5#356
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#1
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#267
Freethrows+0.9#122
Improvement+1.7#83
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 55.0% 33.7% 73.6%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Away) - 46.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 31 - 91 - 16
Quad 45 - 66 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 20   @ Michigan St. L 46-90 2%     0 - 1 -28.2 -19.4 -7.9
  Nov 22, 2021 21   @ Iowa L 61-109 2%     0 - 2 -32.3 -14.4 -12.9
  Nov 26, 2021 221   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 67-77 20%     0 - 3 -10.3 -6.9 -3.5
  Nov 27, 2021 261   Purdue Fort Wayne W 93-85 OT 35%     1 - 3 +2.7 +15.8 -13.2
  Nov 28, 2021 304   SE Louisiana W 81-77 OT 46%     2 - 3 -4.3 -3.4 -1.2
  Dec 05, 2021 186   Valparaiso L 60-71 29%     2 - 4 -14.4 -9.8 -5.5
  Dec 11, 2021 199   @ Detroit Mercy L 64-83 17%     2 - 5 -18.1 -4.3 -15.5
  Dec 20, 2021 65   @ Notre Dame L 52-85 4%     2 - 6 -22.3 -13.3 -11.6
  Dec 29, 2021 88   @ Toledo L 56-83 5%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -18.0 -11.7 -7.2
  Jan 01, 2022 84   Ohio L 47-59 11%     2 - 8 0 - 2 -7.8 -20.0 +11.4
  Jan 04, 2022 263   Eastern Michigan L 79-85 45%     2 - 9 0 - 3 -14.0 -5.1 -8.2
  Jan 11, 2022 103   Buffalo L 64-78 15%     2 - 10 0 - 4 -12.0 -6.1 -6.8
  Jan 15, 2022 163   Miami (OH) L 62-70 26%     2 - 11 0 - 5 -10.5 -8.0 -3.4
  Jan 18, 2022 152   @ Akron L 73-74 13%     2 - 12 0 - 6 +2.1 +11.8 -9.9
  Jan 20, 2022 333   @ Central Michigan L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 22, 2022 182   Bowling Green L 74-80 30%    
  Jan 25, 2022 164   @ Kent St. L 60-72 12%    
  Jan 29, 2022 242   @ Ball St. L 71-78 24%    
  Feb 01, 2022 295   Northern Illinois W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 05, 2022 84   @ Ohio L 61-80 4%    
  Feb 08, 2022 163   @ Miami (OH) L 66-78 13%    
  Feb 12, 2022 333   Central Michigan W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 15, 2022 152   Akron L 65-72 27%    
  Feb 19, 2022 103   @ Buffalo L 69-85 6%    
  Feb 22, 2022 88   Toledo L 66-79 12%    
  Feb 26, 2022 182   @ Bowling Green L 71-82 15%    
  Mar 01, 2022 263   @ Eastern Michigan L 68-74 27%    
  Mar 04, 2022 242   Ball St. L 73-75 44%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.9 0.1 3.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 3.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 4.2 8.2 4.8 0.8 0.1 18.6 10th
11th 0.0 1.9 8.0 12.6 6.3 1.1 0.1 29.9 11th
12th 1.8 6.9 13.5 11.5 5.0 0.8 0.0 39.5 12th
Total 1.8 6.9 15.4 20.1 21.8 16.6 9.7 4.8 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.1
10-10 0.2% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
9-11 0.6% 0.6
8-12 2.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.0
7-13 4.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.8
6-14 9.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.7
5-15 16.6% 16.6
4-16 21.8% 21.8
3-17 20.1% 20.1
2-18 15.4% 15.4
1-19 6.9% 6.9
0-20 1.8% 1.8
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%