Ohio
Mid-American
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#84
Expected Predictive Rating+15.4#22
Pace69.8#146
Improvement-0.2#188

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#88
First Shot+3.7#72
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#215
Layup/Dunks-0.3#172
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#239
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#42
Freethrows+0.8#115
Improvement-0.8#233

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#81
First Shot+1.9#115
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#56
Layups/Dunks+0.1#179
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#215
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#98
Freethrows+0.0#196
Improvement+0.6#149
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.6% 39.7% 28.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.2% 8.6% 2.5%
Average Seed 11.7 11.4 12.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 55.9% 71.8% 29.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.2% 4.2% 1.6%
First Round33.8% 37.4% 27.7%
Second Round9.2% 10.7% 6.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.5% 3.0% 1.8%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Home) - 62.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 22 - 12 - 4
Quad 37 - 29 - 5
Quad 416 - 125 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 62   Belmont W 92-80 54%     1 - 0 +17.8 +15.0 +2.0
  Nov 13, 2021 156   @ Cleveland St. W 67-56 65%     2 - 0 +13.9 -1.7 +16.3
  Nov 15, 2021 306   Robert Morris W 85-71 94%     3 - 0 +3.2 +1.1 +1.4
  Nov 19, 2021 3   @ Kentucky L 59-77 9%     3 - 1 +3.7 +0.6 +1.6
  Nov 22, 2021 282   Mount St. Mary's W 73-59 93%     4 - 1 +4.5 +4.9 +1.0
  Dec 01, 2021 13   @ LSU L 51-66 13%     4 - 2 +4.1 -8.1 +12.5
  Dec 04, 2021 301   St. Francis (PA) W 78-75 94%     5 - 2 -7.6 -1.8 -6.0
  Dec 11, 2021 293   @ Stetson W 55-45 87%     6 - 2 +4.7 -10.8 +17.2
  Dec 15, 2021 200   Marshall W 75-65 85%     7 - 2 +5.9 -6.9 +12.0
  Dec 21, 2021 311   South Carolina Upstate W 85-70 94%     8 - 2 +3.9 +6.5 -2.2
  Jan 01, 2022 315   @ Western Michigan W 59-47 89%     9 - 2 1 - 0 +5.2 -14.7 +20.9
  Jan 04, 2022 152   @ Akron W 69-63 64%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +9.1 +2.0 +7.6
  Jan 07, 2022 164   Kent St. W 80-72 81%     11 - 2 3 - 0 +5.5 +8.4 -2.9
  Jan 11, 2022 182   Bowling Green W 85-78 83%     12 - 2 4 - 0 +3.7 +4.5 -1.1
  Jan 18, 2022 163   @ Miami (OH) W 86-63 66%     13 - 2 5 - 0 +25.6 +11.9 +13.7
  Jan 21, 2022 88   Toledo W 75-72 63%    
  Jan 25, 2022 295   Northern Illinois W 75-58 95%    
  Jan 29, 2022 103   @ Buffalo L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 01, 2022 242   Ball St. W 82-68 91%    
  Feb 03, 2022 263   Eastern Michigan W 79-64 92%    
  Feb 05, 2022 315   Western Michigan W 80-61 96%    
  Feb 08, 2022 88   @ Toledo L 72-74 40%    
  Feb 12, 2022 263   @ Eastern Michigan W 76-66 80%    
  Feb 15, 2022 163   Miami (OH) W 76-67 82%    
  Feb 19, 2022 164   @ Kent St. W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 22, 2022 333   Central Michigan W 86-65 97%    
  Feb 26, 2022 152   Akron W 73-64 80%    
  Mar 01, 2022 182   @ Bowling Green W 79-74 66%    
  Mar 04, 2022 295   @ Northern Illinois W 72-60 86%    
Projected Record 24 - 5 16 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 5.7 15.3 19.4 11.5 3.3 55.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 7.5 12.6 7.7 1.7 30.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.1 1.4 0.1 9.0 3rd
4th 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 5.7 12.7 19.7 23.0 21.0 11.5 3.3 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 3.3    3.3
18-2 100.0% 11.5    11.1 0.4
17-3 92.0% 19.4    15.2 4.1 0.0
16-4 66.4% 15.3    8.1 6.6 0.6
15-5 29.1% 5.7    1.6 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.4% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 55.9% 55.9 39.3 14.4 2.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 3.3% 77.9% 50.8% 27.0% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 55.0%
18-2 11.5% 57.3% 42.8% 14.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.9 2.2 2.1 0.4 4.9 25.3%
17-3 21.0% 44.4% 38.0% 6.4% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.2 5.4 1.4 0.0 11.7 10.4%
16-4 23.0% 33.2% 32.1% 1.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.3 2.7 0.1 15.4 1.7%
15-5 19.7% 27.4% 27.1% 0.3% 12.6 0.1 2.4 2.6 0.3 14.3 0.4%
14-6 12.7% 21.1% 21.1% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.3 10.0 0.1%
13-7 5.7% 15.7% 15.7% 13.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.8
12-8 2.1% 12.3% 12.3% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.8
11-9 0.7% 14.2% 14.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6
10-10 0.1% 17.8% 17.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 35.6% 31.3% 4.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.1 1.5 5.2 15.3 9.5 1.1 0.0 64.4 6.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 6.5 0.6 2.3 9.1 22.3 20.6 18.9 9.0 9.1 5.7 1.8 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 55.9% 9.9 1.6 0.8 2.7 5.3 12.2 12.0 9.3 11.2 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 56.9% 10.3 1.3 7.2 6.9 6.9 23.3 11.3