Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.9#295
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#232
Pace68.2#188
Improvement+1.0#130

Offense
Total Offense-7.7#342
First Shot-6.0#328
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#302
Layup/Dunks-1.8#249
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#259
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#250
Freethrows-0.7#241
Improvement+0.8#126

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#173
First Shot-0.8#196
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#126
Layups/Dunks-0.5#202
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#102
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#124
Freethrows-2.7#323
Improvement+0.1#177
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.7
.500 or above 1.0% 1.7% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 8.4% 13.0% 3.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.8% 7.7% 22.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Home) - 52.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 32 - 73 - 15
Quad 46 - 69 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 130   @ Washington W 71-64 12%     1 - 0 +11.9 -3.0 +14.3
  Nov 12, 2021 27   @ Indiana L 49-85 3%     1 - 1 -20.9 -16.8 -2.4
  Nov 18, 2021 126   @ Missouri L 37-54 12%     1 - 2 -11.9 -27.1 +12.7
  Nov 21, 2021 198   Boston University L 58-76 27%     1 - 3 -19.6 -8.4 -13.7
  Nov 22, 2021 292   Arkansas Little Rock L 60-67 50%     1 - 4 -14.8 -14.9 -0.1
  Nov 27, 2021 37   @ Marquette L 66-80 4%     1 - 5 -0.8 -5.1 +5.5
  Dec 01, 2021 352   Eastern Illinois W 55-45 83%     2 - 5 -8.0 -18.7 +11.4
  Dec 04, 2021 72   @ Dayton L 41-79 6%     2 - 6 -28.0 -23.9 -6.3
  Dec 13, 2021 350   @ Chicago St. W 70-59 66%     3 - 6 -1.0 -7.2 +6.2
  Dec 19, 2021 257   @ Illinois-Chicago L 60-61 30%     3 - 7 -3.5 -10.5 +6.9
  Jan 08, 2022 88   @ Toledo L 63-94 7%     3 - 8 0 - 1 -22.0 -9.9 -10.4
  Jan 11, 2022 164   @ Kent St. W 65-63 17%     4 - 8 1 - 1 +4.5 -3.0 +7.6
  Jan 15, 2022 263   Eastern Michigan W 67-66 53%    
  Jan 18, 2022 182   Bowling Green L 70-75 35%    
  Jan 22, 2022 163   @ Miami (OH) L 63-73 15%    
  Jan 25, 2022 84   @ Ohio L 58-75 5%    
  Jan 27, 2022 242   Ball St. L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 29, 2022 333   Central Michigan W 74-68 73%    
  Feb 01, 2022 315   @ Western Michigan L 66-67 45%    
  Feb 05, 2022 182   @ Bowling Green L 67-77 18%    
  Feb 08, 2022 152   Akron L 62-68 31%    
  Feb 12, 2022 88   Toledo L 63-75 15%    
  Feb 15, 2022 242   @ Ball St. L 67-73 28%    
  Feb 17, 2022 152   @ Akron L 59-70 15%    
  Feb 19, 2022 163   Miami (OH) L 65-70 32%    
  Feb 22, 2022 263   @ Eastern Michigan L 64-69 31%    
  Feb 24, 2022 103   Buffalo L 68-78 20%    
  Feb 26, 2022 103   @ Buffalo L 65-80 8%    
  Mar 01, 2022 164   Kent St. L 59-64 33%    
  Mar 04, 2022 84   Ohio L 60-72 14%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.7 1.0 0.1 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.0 5.5 1.9 0.1 12.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 6.8 7.5 2.8 0.2 19.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 4.4 9.9 8.5 2.4 0.2 26.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 4.2 7.0 4.3 1.1 0.1 17.6 11th
12th 0.6 2.4 2.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.3 12th
Total 0.6 3.2 7.5 12.9 16.4 17.4 14.4 11.3 8.0 4.3 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 60.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 6.6% 6.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.0 0.5
12-8 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.1
11-9 2.2% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.2
10-10 4.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.3
9-11 8.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.9
8-12 11.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.3
7-13 14.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.4
6-14 17.4% 17.4
5-15 16.4% 16.4
4-16 12.9% 12.9
3-17 7.5% 7.5
2-18 3.2% 3.2
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%