Pac-12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Arizona 100.0%   2   14 - 1 4 - 0 26 - 3 16 - 2 +19.4      +9.6 10 +9.8 6 81.2 5 +22.3 2 +18.6 1
12 UCLA 98.9%   4   11 - 2 3 - 1 20 - 6 12 - 5 +16.7      +9.0 15 +7.7 17 69.2 163 +17.4 11 +11.1 6
26 USC 81.5%   8   14 - 2 4 - 2 22 - 7 12 - 7 +12.7      +6.8 30 +5.9 38 66.7 244 +14.8 26 +10.7 7
40 Oregon 56.8%   11   10 - 6 4 - 2 19 - 11 13 - 7 +10.6      +7.6 23 +3.0 89 66.7 238 +10.0 57 +13.9 4
52 Washington St. 11.7%   10 - 7 3 - 3 17 - 13 10 - 9 +9.2      +3.1 94 +6.1 34 67.9 198 +3.5 116 +6.7 8
69 Colorado 18.6%   12 - 4 3 - 2 18 - 11 9 - 9 +7.8      +3.2 90 +4.6 64 66.5 247 +10.1 56 +14.1 3
76 Stanford 22.9%   10 - 5 3 - 1 17 - 12 10 - 8 +7.4      +2.5 103 +4.9 59 70.7 121 +10.5 54 +14.7 2
107 California 0.4%   9 - 9 2 - 5 13 - 18 6 - 14 +4.4      0.0 174 +4.4 67 62.0 330 +2.8 126 +1.2 10
111 Utah 0.3%   8 - 10 1 - 7 12 - 18 5 - 15 +4.2      +3.7 77 +0.5 153 67.8 201 +2.3 136 -4.2 12
119 Arizona St. 0.5%   6 - 9 2 - 3 10 - 18 6 - 12 +3.4      -1.4 215 +4.7 62 70.2 135 +3.5 119 +4.2 9
124 Oregon St. 0.1%   3 - 13 1 - 5 7 - 22 5 - 14 +2.9      +3.0 97 -0.1 169 67.5 216 -6.4 274 +0.6 11
130 Washington 0.2%   8 - 7 3 - 2 12 - 16 7 - 11 +2.4      -1.2 208 +3.6 79 74.8 55 +2.6 129 +11.4 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Arizona 1.2 83.1 11.5 3.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
UCLA 3.0 11.7 30.3 25.4 17.5 8.7 4.0 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
USC 3.3 8.2 27.4 24.3 19.9 11.1 5.4 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Oregon 3.1 12.1 31.1 23.4 14.8 9.2 5.3 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington St. 5.4 0.9 5.9 10.8 15.9 20.7 19.4 13.5 7.0 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.2
Colorado 5.9 0.7 4.4 7.8 13.0 17.2 19.5 17.1 10.1 5.5 2.9 1.4 0.4
Stanford 5.7 1.0 4.1 9.0 14.4 20.0 19.2 14.7 8.8 4.9 2.3 1.2 0.4
California 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.5 7.0 12.0 17.4 20.2 17.3 13.5 7.6
Utah 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.2 6.5 10.7 15.6 19.1 21.9 21.3
Arizona St. 9.2 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.8 5.8 9.5 14.5 18.0 19.0 16.8 11.9
Oregon St. 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.9 5.7 9.8 13.6 17.5 21.3 27.5
Washington 8.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.5 5.8 9.9 15.4 20.7 18.0 13.3 8.7 4.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Arizona 16 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.2 5.8 11.5 20.9 26.6 22.4 9.5
UCLA 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.6 7.9 14.6 20.6 22.4 17.7 9.1 2.5
USC 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 4.9 10.2 16.4 20.9 20.4 14.9 7.1 2.2 0.3
Oregon 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.7 8.8 13.9 18.3 18.9 16.3 10.0 5.0 1.3 0.2
Washington St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 7.2 12.6 18.1 20.2 16.9 12.2 6.2 2.3 0.4 0.0
Colorado 9 - 11 0.0 0.5 1.9 5.2 10.6 15.8 18.8 18.3 14.1 9.1 4.1 1.4 0.3 0.0
Stanford 10 - 10 0.0 0.4 1.4 4.1 8.9 14.6 18.3 19.0 15.7 10.3 5.1 1.6 0.5 0.1
California 6 - 14 0.7 3.5 9.5 16.5 21.6 20.9 14.5 8.4 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0
Utah 5 - 15 0.7 4.0 10.3 17.3 21.3 19.7 14.3 7.7 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 6 - 14 1.5 5.6 12.8 19.3 20.6 17.8 11.9 6.6 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oregon St. 5 - 15 1.2 5.3 12.7 18.7 20.8 18.2 12.0 6.8 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.0
Washington 7 - 13 1.3 5.2 12.1 19.6 21.1 18.2 12.0 6.5 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arizona 83.1% 69.8 11.3 1.8 0.2 0.0
UCLA 11.7% 5.3 4.8 1.4 0.2 0.0
USC 8.2% 3.5 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
Oregon 12.1% 5.6 5.0 1.2 0.2
Washington St. 0.9% 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1
Colorado 0.7% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Stanford 1.0% 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
California 0.0% 0.0
Utah
Arizona St.
Oregon St.
Washington 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arizona 100.0% 49.0% 51.0% 2   38.9 29.2 16.6 8.9 3.6 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
UCLA 98.9% 26.7% 72.2% 4   9.9 13.4 17.5 18.5 14.7 10.0 6.4 3.8 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.1 98.5%
USC 81.5% 10.2% 71.3% 8   0.3 0.8 2.5 5.0 8.3 10.8 11.3 11.3 10.5 9.1 8.6 2.9 0.1 18.5 79.4%
Oregon 56.8% 6.3% 50.5% 11   0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 3.9 6.8 9.7 10.2 9.7 8.2 3.6 0.3 0.0 43.2 53.9%
Washington St. 11.7% 3.1% 8.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.3 3.7 2.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 88.3 8.9%
Colorado 18.6% 1.9% 16.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.8 3.7 5.3 3.1 0.2 0.0 81.4 17.1%
Stanford 22.9% 1.7% 21.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.6 3.7 4.9 6.1 3.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 77.1 21.5%
California 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.1%
Utah 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.1%
Arizona St. 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.5 0.2%
Oregon St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Washington 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arizona 100.0% 0.0% 99.9% 94.8% 72.4% 47.9% 28.7% 16.7% 8.9%
UCLA 98.9% 0.6% 98.7% 82.3% 52.1% 28.0% 14.6% 7.2% 3.3%
USC 81.5% 7.1% 78.3% 46.9% 18.3% 7.4% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Oregon 56.8% 7.7% 53.0% 26.4% 8.1% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Washington St. 11.7% 3.5% 10.1% 4.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado 18.6% 5.9% 15.4% 6.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 22.9% 6.3% 19.4% 7.7% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
California 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.9 0.0 2.7 27.1 48.1 19.8 2.2 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 3.8 0.0 4.3 32.7 46.8 14.9 1.3 0.0
2nd Round 99.8% 2.7 0.2 5.6 35.5 43.4 14.2 1.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 92.0% 1.6 8.0 39.4 42.0 10.0 0.7 0.0
Elite Eight 69.1% 0.9 30.9 51.4 16.6 1.1 0.0
Final Four 43.3% 0.5 56.7 39.2 4.0 0.0
Final Game 24.5% 0.3 75.5 23.8 0.7
Champion 12.7% 0.1 87.3 12.7